The NRL draw has been out for just under a week now, and most of the analysis and discussion seems to centre on TV scheduling rather than the actual fairness of the draw from a football perspective.
Most vitriol is directed at the Broncos with their run of Friday night football, and at the other end of the spectrum from Cronulla and the number of Monday night games that they have received.
No doubt, free-to-air exposure is great for clubs and sponsorship and the clubs receiving most won’t be disappointed. Having said that, while the draw, in terms of TV scheduling benefits the Broncos the most.
In terms of an equitable competition draw, the football coaching staff will have their work cut out.
An analysis of the draw in terms of opposition, turnaround time, and travel clearly benefits some teams and is far from equitable.
I will start with opposition.
In terms of opposition, I’ve looked at two measures: firstly how many times a team gets to play the 2012 top four, and secondly how many times they play the 2012 bottom four.
For teams finishing top four and bottom four in 2012 I have included the teams that finish fifth, and twelfth when counting their opponents.
Starting at the top end of the scale, Manly have the toughest draw, and will play 2012s top teams on eight occasions, closely followed by Broncos, Bulldogs, and Roosters who each play the top four seven times.
At the other end of the spectrum the Warriors will only verse top four opposition four times, while the Knights and Panthers receive a favourable draw by playing top four teams five times. In a tight competition with points hard enough to earn, clear advantages to teams can already be seen.
Taking it a step further and looking at the number of times you play bottom teams helps to add to the picture.
Six teams have the good fortune of playing bottom four opposition seven times. Roosters, Sharks, Titans, Warriors, Panthers, and Cowboys are the lucky teams this time.
At the other end, the Broncos and Eels get the short straw, with just five games against the bottom four.
A quick dissection of that shows the big winners to be Penrith and Warriors who have the least games against top teams and the most against bottom teams, while Sharks, Titans, and Cowboys have a favourable mix of top four/bottom four opposition.
The losers this time are Broncos, with the second highest number of games against top teams and the least against the bottom end of the table.
Another important football factor is your turnaround between games.
The argument against Broncos regular Friday night games is the advantage they have in match turnaround time, and regular routine.
True, but they aren’t alone, and the advantage is not as great as appears.
In matches so far scheduled up to Round 20, the Broncos receive 14 matches with at least a seven day turnaround.
But they aren’t alone here, Panthers also receive 14 matches, while Canberra closely follows on 13, and both Rabbitohs and Tigers closely follow on 12.
So, despite the calls of Bronco bias, they don’t stand alone in preparation time.
Teams with the toughest turnaround are Dragons and Titans, both with just nine long turnarounds, although the Titans do have seven six day turnarounds.
Also, while Broncos saturate Friday nights, Panthers and Warriors both have ten Saturday night games, while Sharks have nine.
Also, both Warriors and Roosters avoided any Monday night games, while Titans top the list with five. On this measure, the benefactors are Penrith and Broncos, but not by nearly as much as the bleaters would believe.
Finally travel. This is tougher to quantify, so given that all non-Sydney teams will have greater travel commitments than the Sydney teams, and that is just something they deal with, I decided an equitable measure would be the number of away games played in Sydney.
With seven non-Sydney teams it would seem reasonable that each Sydney team could travel to each out of town venue once a year. At a stretch maybe six away games in and out of Sydney would be a good balance, but this is not the way the draw worked out.
Five teams got the 6/6 balance: Broncos, Storm, Dragons, Titans, and Knights.
But at the extremes there are some clear advantages. The Rabbitohs have eight away games in Sydney, meaning their players leave home on just four occasions in twenty six rounds of tough footy.
Similarly Bulldogs, Sharks, Manly, Panthers, Roosters, and Tigers have seven Sydney away games, meaning they only leave home five times in the season.
The Eels are least favoured with five Sydney away games.
As I stated, regional teams deal well with the travel impost they face, but it would seem more could be done to share the travel load around among Sydney teams.
You can make up your own minds who you think the draw favours. I lean towards Panthers, Roosters, and Rabbitohs, while I think Eels and Warriors get a pretty tough deal.
The point is, there is more to a draw than who gets the good TV slots, and I’m pretty sure teams would be happy to give up the odd TV game for an ‘easier’ draw.
Josh Wye
Roar Pro
It's about time the draw gets an overhaul. The team that comes last the previous year should have the easiest draw and the team that comes first the toughest. Start it that way and level it out across the whole competition. That ensures the most level playing field throughout the year and you get more of your "blockbuster" games as the top teams will play each other more. As for scheduling to make higher ratings spin different states, if the product is good enough any game should rate. In the NFL even when two lesser teams play it still rates because the product itself is worth watching. Fix up some rules, fix up some refereeing and how about channel 9 make a decent pre game show instead of showing Big Bang Theory re-runs, if you have seen one episode of that show then you have seen them all.
Bigjohn
Guest
It's easy to blame 9, because it is their fault. Ring the Broncos at Red Hill, and ask them which days they would prefer to play. NRL is not a sport, it is a business, and the clubs play because the NRL allows them to join their competition, and 9 decide who they want on Fridays.
Bigjohn
Guest
Why blame the Broncos, it is Channel 9 who want them on Fridays. If you read the Broncos promotional material, you would see that they are actually promoting the few weekend games they have been granted , and seem pretty happy to play on Saturday or Sundays. Its a six hour drive for me to get to Lang Park, so I would like a lot more Saturday games, but 9 will not allow that as their big ratings night is Friday.
Bigjohn
Guest
and a lie down
Maximus
Guest
This would be the only game in the world where an international game's venue is is unknown 5 months before the game
Jack Daniels
Roar Pro
The draw is BS, the broncos get the first 10 friday night games
Nostradamus
Guest
Its a record because it is over 2 days rather than one event - how lame can you get? I note some folk claimed it was sold out - not yet but probably will be..
Nostradamus
Guest
Still interesting that the Drugs scandal seems to be announced after the Nine share market listing - surely the NRL wouldn't/couldn't do such a thing...
Storm Boy
Guest
I see today http://www.nrl.com/auckland-nines-sets-new-record/tabid/10874/newsid/75734/default.aspx the NRL "officially launch the Nine's trophy". A misplaced apostrophe? Not given Nine runs the game. :-)
Rodney
Roar Pro
we're lucky that the NRL has a salary cap to restrict teams wishing to horde all the stars. The only credible argument is more sponsorship exposure and a greater likelihood of players being granted individual sponsorship. But seeing as the marquee allowance is capped at 550k ( a fairly achievable figure since multiple sponsors are allowed to contribute, allowing all clubs to fill out their allowance) and that individual sponsorship cannot be associated with a club in any way, nor be used as a potential bargaining tool the advantage is minimal. Sponsors of individuals don't get recognized during the broadcast of games (and are not allowed to) so then they must create their own advertisements to advise people of their sponsorship of a particular player (the player can't wear a jersey or use any NRL intellectual property though). Star Players will be able to get sponsors no matter what club they play for and players who perform spectacular feats will get noticed no matter what channel they're broadcast on (eg. David Nofoaluma). The Roosters had 1/3 of their games televised FTA, equal 8th with the Panthers and Dragons in 2013, but they still managed to sign the Marquee SBW. The Broncos in 2010 had 17 FTA regular season games and their greatest individual 3rd party deal was valued at $25k (according to the Daily Telegraph), well below that of Benji Marshall who had over 11 individual third party sponsors granting him over $500k in third party deals that same season (From the article: Brand Benji & The Fairfax Bandwagon.)
baldie
Guest
1. easier to recruit because players want to play in prime time 2. more sponsorships = more 3rd party payments = attact bigger stars 3. the effect than snowballs because upcoming players want to play in the team with the most stars
Johhny Plath
Guest
keen to hear why tv appearances are the most important game breaking advantage over other things discussed in the article. Don't think players and coaching staff really concern themselves which tv channel they are on. More likely who they play, where they play, and how much time they get to prepare for the match. Toughest competition in the world to get competition points, so I don't buy the argument that teams don't care who the opposition is. Its all about making finals, and teams would love whatever football advantage they can get.
Nostradamus
Guest
Nothing but when are they going to announce it?? March??
Boomshanka
Guest
And what's wrong with Townsville having a test, or even a State of Origin?
Rodney
Roar Pro
But clubs agreed to the TV rights deal, in full knowledge that they would have a reduced FTA exposure in exchange for greater annual grants by the NRL. In 2013 alone the base grant given out to clubs increased by $2 million. While Canberra haven't been granted as much FTA exposure they have been granted only 3 home games that begin at 7pm or later. Generally this will allow more bearable weather during the colder months and encourage attendances. While not chosen as the Sunday afternoon FTA team often, they do get they're fair share of home Sunday games (4) and their one Saturday home game kicks off at 3pm. FTA is not the be and end all, attendances are at least an equal measure and this draw seeks to encourage people to turn up rather than watch at home.
Nostradamus
Guest
In that case where is the Aust v NZ test in May??? Townsville??/
Nostradamus
Guest
Doonan Dave, Yes home teams make the move but you fear there might be some quid pro quo and the NRL may suggest which games to move - a game against a popular team at the bottom of the ladder or against a team that its in the NRL interest to makes the semis..
tony
Guest
Great analysis. Hate to nitpick but "versing" is not a verb. As in "the Broncos verse Souths..."
baldie
Guest
"apart from tv appearances" so apart from the biggest, most important, game breaking advantage they get nothing at all. Equality for all clubs, if the NRL gets lower ratings for a few years tough shit, because right now the NRL is losing Canberra and Southern NSW to the AFL. I wonder what effect that will have on their bottom line not to mention another region now producing AFL players instead of league.
Johhny Plath
Guest
Hi Sez, if anything I think that apart from tv appearances, the broncos get no advantages. Its well documented that they want family friendly home games - Sundays and Saturdays, think they got one of those. Friday night is not the ideal time for Bronco home games, think you'll find their biggest crowds tend to come when they have a fair share of Sunday arvo games. I would like to take my kids to a game in daylight for a change, instead of dragging them through the city at night. How come the Sydney teams get all the home day games?? Surely that must be an advantage playing in good conditions consistently? I also don't really get the gripes from NSW tv viewers, the Broncos are always the second game, the Sydney match of the round is generally live on nine - whats the problem?? When I read comments from clubs on the draw, they seem to be pretty happy they got what they want in most cases. Pretty sure I've not heard any complaints apart from Cronullla not getting enough Sunday arvo games.