Right now most people would reply to the above question with a yes – and as a devout Colts fan I would be inclined to agree.
Still, I am willing to give Trent Richardson a second chance and not come to a conclusion until after the first four weeks of the 2014/15 NFL season.
The Indianapolis Colts started off the season with a two-headed running machine in free agent signing Ahmad Bradshaw and fifth round sophomore Vick Ballard. Both ran the ball hard early on this season before two different injuries led to them being placed on IR.
Trent Richardson was acquired after the injury to Vick Ballard, in exchange for the Colts’ first round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft.
Ahmad Bradshaw was still healthy at the time but is renowned for constant niggling injuries.
Immediately after the trade Richardson, who was taken third overall in the 2012 NFL draft, was described by Chuck Pagano as a “rolling ball of knives”.
After crossing the line for a touchdown in his first two games it seemed likely that the trade was going to be a great one for both franchises.
Then slowly over the last six to eight weeks, Richardson has declined immensely. Over the past eight games he is averaging 2.67 yards a carry. Over the season he averages 3.0 yards per carry, ranked 46th in the NFL.
His decline has lead to his benching and the promotion of Donald Brown, who before the season started was in danger of being cut from the team. Lucky for the Colts, Brown made the roster.
Why has there been such a decline in Trent Richardson? There are many factors at play.
The Colts offensive line, particularly the interior line, is one of the worst in the league. The loss of Donald Thomas in Week 3 has them very weak at the guard position. Dwayne Allen, the best blocking tight end on the Colts roster, is currently on IR.
Mike McGlynn and Samson Satele are two of the worst interior linemen in the league. Colts fans have been calling for their heads all season, but unfortunately there are no viable replacements with Jeff Linkenbach and Khaled Holmes being the back-ups.
Rookie Hugh Thornton has showed glimpses but has also had some shocking games.
The poor play of the offensive line has not gone unnoticed by Pete Prisco of CBS.
While the offensive line is mostly to blame, Donald Brown has been able to produce, so Richardson must be held accountable for his lack in production and vision.
Let’s not forget the loss of Reggie Wayne from this offence; the passing game has been stagnant since the future hall of famer was placed on IR. With no Reggie Wayne on the outside the Colts face plenty of seven and eight men boxes. Defences are forcing Luck to throw to average receivers in Darrius Heyward-Bey and LaVon Brazill.
The emergence of undrafted rookie Da’Rick Rogers may help ease this problem for Richardson and the Colts. He showed potential against Cincinnati earlier this week.
Richardson’s decision making in games has been very suspect but Reggie Wayne has come to his aid, saying that Richardson felt as though he was rushed into the Colts’ offence and never fully got a grasp of the playbook.
It is expected that new players to an offence need time to adapt to the new surroundings and new systems. It can take months to learn new schemes and the playbook.
Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk essentially described it as changing a tire on a moving car.
There is hope for Colts fans as a current running back by the name of Marshawn Lynch went through similar circumstances.
Lynch was traded from the Bills to the Seahawks in Week 4 of the 2010 NFL season.
For his starts for the Seahawks in 2010 he only averaged 3.4 yards per carry on his way to six touchdowns. The following year, after an off-season that included OTAs and training camp, that number increased to 4.2 yards per carry and his touchdowns doubled from the year before.
Wayne feels that with a proper off-season and training camp under his belt, Richardson will bounce back and prove his first round value. Many Colts fans will be hoping that Wayne is correct and that Richardson takes a similar path to success for Marshawn Lynch.
While the Richardson trade looks to be a bust so far, I will wait until after the first month of the 2014/15 NFL season before I make a final judgement. It would be great to see the him back in the form that warranted him to be drafted so early.
Dogs Of War
Roar Guru
It's not just Gio though, it's all the pieces we have. Top 10 offense and defense even with our injuries our next man up is working so well. We still have a couple of cold weather games to go, and I'm hoping we get to see Dalton improve in that sort of weather, cause that's when he has been very poor and it's only getting colder.
Josh Wye
Roar Pro
Dalton is the most bipolar quarterback. Some games I'm amazed at how good he is and others at how bad is he. Maybe his nickname should be Jeckyll and Hyde, haha. If the good Dalton turns it on in the playoffs they are a real chance, especially with Gio Bernard, a running back taken at the appropriate time in a draft.
Dogs Of War
Roar Guru
Whats funny is that for the Bengals, QB's shouldn't be taken in the first round. All our best QB's have been drafted in the second round (well ones that go to the Superbowl do!) I'm hoping that a great sign for Dalton to take us there.
Josh Wye
Roar Pro
Yeah most teams have a compliment back. It is the way the NFL is heading. Just makes fantasy football so much harder (and funner!).
Josh Wye
Roar Pro
Yeah well I still consider Brown as first round bust, he has done okay this year in some games but in others worse than Richardson. The loss of Reggie Wayne is huge on both sides of the ball. I have been looking at stats today and the colts average 31 points scored against them without Wayne compared to 19 when he was there. He just gave the colts so much more balance, and that's why I'm willing to wait on the "bust" label with Richardson as the offseason might help. The yardage after contact is one of the reasons he was drafted so highly, would love to see that return.
Dogs Of War
Roar Guru
But even his stats with the Browns suggested that it was just the Browns misusing him, as he had one of the best averages after contact. Maybe he is just not comfortable with the new system, and thats where he is struggling. One offseason might see him improve a lot, though that doesn't help Indy now. Funny that the last bust they had in Donald Brown (also a 1st round RB) is now going fine.
Dogs Of War
Roar Guru
2nd round is where you should start for a RB. You only have to look at the Bengals and how they use Bernard, he is a great compliment to BGE. No RB these days should be the only one you rely on, because if they go down you suffer in a big way. Having guys who only have to focus on 10-15 touches a game is the way forward.
Josh Wye
Roar Pro
Yeah well look at the the other Alabama running back taken in the first round recently in Mark Ingram, he too hasn't performed at an elite level. I think you're spot on Tony. So many outside factors at play for running backs coming out of college. It's not worth the risk anymore.
Josh Wye
Roar Pro
Yeah just seems like such a waste. It's such a deep draft in 2014 too, missing out on crucial talent.
Tony Loedi
Roar Guru
Yeah agreed, running backs should never be taken in the first round. They are too hard to evaluate as their performance has a lot to do with how good the offensive line is. Richardson was running behind one of the best O-line's in college history which made him look better than he is.
Dominic Davies
Expert
I'd be tempted to grab one late-second round like the Packers did this year with Eddie Lacy, but any earlier than that and it's a waste of a pick. That's one of the reasons why the trade seems so absurd now.
Josh Wye
Roar Pro
Yeah his season with the Browns wasn't the best piece of work either but he was carrying a few injuries during that year. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now but in saying that I'm not confident he is going to prove himself next year. I think the "bust" label is around the corner for him. With the amount of running backs that have become solid starters in the NFL but have been late round picks or undrafted (Arian Foster, Alfred Morris, Zach Stacy, Vick Ballard etc) you have to worry about the draft value of running backs. Would you now bother taking one in the first two rounds? I certainly wouldn't.
Dominic Davies
Expert
Great read Josh. I understand not wanting to throw the "bust" label out yet and waiting to see how he performs after an offseason with the team, but he wasn't great for the Browns in his rookie year, either. He only averaged 3.6 yards per carry in 2012. That's good for the 39th best in the NFL that year.