Australia and England stand on the edge of divergent fates as they go through final preparations before the third Ashes Test starts tomorrow.
Should Australia win, they will have wrested back the trophy after three series of English dominance. England must win to remain in contention.
It is the toughest challenge this English team has faced. Coming back from a Test defeat to win 2-1 in India was huge, but a trip to Australia is as confounding for most visiting sides, and 2-0 down in a five-Test series is a mountain to climb.
Not only that, but England must win at the venue least suited to them, and most suited to their destroyer thus far in this series, Mitchell Johnson.
For a bowler known as erratic, Johnson has a stunning WACA record of 36 wickets from five matches, at an average of 19.66.
Ryan Harris’ two matches have given him 11 at 15.72. David Warner likes it too: he smashed 180 from 159 balls against India here two summers ago, which remains his highest Test score.
England’s last win at the WACA was in 1978, when the Australian team had been gutted by World Series Cricket.
Since then they’ve played nine Tests here, with two draws their best result. The high bounce of the pitch makes adjusting extremely hard for all visiting teams bar South Africa, whose recent record is formidable.
It’s for this reason that the 1992 century from a young visiting batsman named Sachin Tendulkar is still remembered with awe.
Some consolation for England will be that their experienced batsmen have a reasonable record from two matches apiece at the ground. Alistair Cook scored 116 here on the wipeout tour in 2006. Kevin Pietersen averages 44 after scoring 70 and 60 not out in the same match, though he made 0 and 3 last time around.
Ian Bell’s four innings include an 87 and a 53. Of their bowling, Monty Panesar and Chris Tremlett have both taken eight wickets in a match here, though Panesar was also devastated by Adam Gilchrist.
As if generally the case, the make-up of the winning team is predictable, while the losing side could go in several directions.
Australia will almost certainly play an unchanged XI: even if James Faulkner had not been ruled out after breaking his thumb in the nets, Australia has finally started respecting Nathan Lyon’s reliable returns, and moved past the phase of yo-yoing him out of the side.
He’ll also provide valuable relief for the fast bowlers with temperatures approaching 40 degrees.
The only possible change will be if Harris can’t recover after Adelaide’s workload, in which case Doug Bollinger is on stand-by. If the left-armer does come in, he and Johnson will plough out some serious footmarks for Nathan Lyon’s benefit outside the right-hander’s off stump.
An England team without Graeme Swann would be kicking themselves.
Dropping Swann is a possibility, after the off spinner’s terrible returns so far this series.
Both he and Panesar may be omitted, with the team keen to get seamer Tim Bresnan back in the side, and tempted to try exploiting the WACA deck by using tall Irish fast bowler Boyd Rankin.
If four quicks play, it’s quite possible we’ll see Ben Stokes omitted for the purer batting of Gary Ballance, but if only three seamers play then Stokes will probably be preferred as a bowling option.
Whatever happens, it will be an unsettled side for England coming into this match, with Joe Root starting only his second Test at number three, and Michael Carberry the third of his career. It will be a settled and focused side for Australia.
Here, they only have to retain their concentration a little longer for the Ashes to be theirs: games in Perth don’t often see the fifth day.
If England can fight their way back into the series here, it will be a triumph for the ages.
Australian side (likely):
David Warner, Chris Rogers, Shane Watson, Michael Clarke (c), Steve Smith, George Bailey, Brad Haddin (wk), Mitchell Johnson, Peter Siddle, Ryan Harris, Nathan Lyon.England side (likely):
Alistair Cook (c), Michael Carberry, Joe Root, Kevin Pietersen, Ian Bell, Gary Ballance, Matt Prior, Stuart Broad, Tim Bresnan, James Anderson, Boyd Rankin.
Bearfax
Guest
You're about right Simoc. Rogers was run out so we cant put too much blame there but his average for this series is slipping well below 20. Bailey out for his usual sucker shot, the bouncer for 7. As I had earlier indicated concern about, Clarke was dismissed cheaply this time and though Warner got a creditable 60 it wont be enough to save Oz. Watson again out for his sucker shot to slips. At present its down to young Smith not out on 58 and Haddin in the 30s. Can they get Oz over the 300 mark? Drop Rogers for Maddinson and Bailey for Hughes. Switch Watson to No 6
Simoc
Guest
Well the England side turned out to be pretty much the expected line up and Right now Oz are up against it again with the batting as per normal. If Warner and/or Clarke don't deliver we're in trouble. Hopefully we can luck out a win and get rid of Rogers (just to try out new blood) and Bailey who may not be test standard. They have been solid shield performers and have deserved their time in the limelight. They may improve but at this stage in their careers it is unlikely.
Eddy Bramley
Roar Pro
Yep it would be a little risky. I think I'd rather see them pick Panesar if they do indeed pick a spinner. Swann has been far below his best this series and Panesar always seems to step up when his country needs him,.
Bearfax
Guest
I sense that England will come into this test returning to their attrition style that won them so many games in the past. I suspect the quite unusual swashbuckling performance of this team in the first two tests, a style contrary to their usual dogged manner, will be dispensed with, and the hard batting slog will return offering a slow run rate and limited opportunities for Australia to get wickets. They also must improve their batting with Ballance being added. I'm sure their fielding lapses will be less evident this time and their overall bowling strategy will be tighter. They must protect their weak tail, so their top batsmen must blunt the attack and be well over 300 before the tail is exposed. As for Australia they cant just rely on Warner, Clarke and Haddin to score their runs. Somewhere along the line these guys will get out for small scores as happens and others therefore must take up the battle. I've no fear about Australia's bowling, even though I think England can counter it. I'm confident they will do their best. But our batting remains vulnerable and if they get the main three out cheaply, batsmen like Rogers and Smith must take control. And who knows, even Watson and Bailey may have a rare good day with the bat and score heavily. Australia deserve to be favourites given the conditions and psychological advantage, but I see a much more resolute England on the rise. If not they will be bunnies in the last 2 tests and offer Australia a 5-0 series win.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
It's painful, isn't it? Still, love the evening session. 6:30pm - 8:30pm - perfect.
Denby
Roar Rookie
I am very excited. I expect England will reassess their tactics and try to be more aggressive. At this point they have nothing to lose and need to start testing the Aussies. This will be brilliant.
Sideline Comm.
Guest
Was just thinking that, but I think Cook will be loath to play them early in the game when the deck doesn't have much in it. Root looks to have taken over from Pieterson as the primary part-timer and he might get a bit of a trundle in the second innings, but unless they're really up against it I think it would be all pace for the first with that team. That said, I reckon they'll stick with Swan.
Sideline Comm.
Guest
Couldn't even sleep for nerves on this one Will. Damn WA, been awake for 6 hours and still no cricket!
Worlds Biggest
Guest
I'm with you Will, I've got a feeling the Poms are going to produce in this game, way too much talk of Australia already winning.
Bayman
Guest
Will, I know exactly what you mean.......
Praveen
Guest
Good write Up Geoff and expect a fight back from England though this will be a tough pitch for them
Eddy Bramley
Roar Pro
Agree with you Chris. If they pick four pacers I'd like them to stick with Stokes and leave Ballance out. England also have the part-time spinning options of Pietersen and Root who could come in to hold up an end for short periods.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
I think that if the Poms pick the side listed above they will be well beaten.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
I understand the thought of omitting Stokes if they pick four fast bowlers, but considering the whole test is to be played in temperatures in the high 30s, if you omit the spinner who could hold up an end and give the quicks some relief, you might find that you want 5 bowlers to cycle through rather than four so they can bowl in short spells and get more rest. So I'd almost be more likely to want the allrounder in the team if they dropped the spinner and went with the extra quick rather than if they kept Swann in the team. If England do drop Swann though, then Australia would feel a lot more comfortable with two lefty pace bowlers than if Swann is playing. As creating lots of footmarks there might just give him some chance of keeping his series average under 100. It would be a big loss if Harris can't play though. Mind you, I do expect Harris will be fine. A bit of knee tightness often happens and with a bit of work on it and rest over the last day or so he'll probably pull up fine this morning.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
I am more nervous about this game than I have been for ages. C'mon Aussies - let's RETURN THE URN!