When Ken Cole recently suggested the NBL move back to winter, he joined a growing list of league identities advocating a shift towards the cooler months.
Andrew Gaze and players association president Jacob Holmes last year made separate calls for a January-starting league, then Cal Bruton said he wanted the season to “bang heads with the big boys” again.
Cole wrote a passionate online post to state his case.
“Our starting point is to switch seasons, allowing the cream of our talent to play in our NBL while still allowing them time to participate in a variety of international leagues to supplement their incomes,” he wrote.
“While difficult, the women seem to have been able to accomplish this task with Opals stand-outs playing in Australia, the USA and Europe all in one year.”
With the NBL where it is at the moment, this is a conversation that needs to take place.
The league has been growing at a steady pace in recent years and with a new ownership and CEO, there’s hope this growth will soon be accelerated.
It’s not like the NBL is close to folding, that’s for sure.
But the NBL is a long, long way from prominence. To many casual sports fans, it lacks any sort of presence at all.
The numbers back this up. The Big Bash League has shown itself capable of pulling national TV audiences of over one million this season. The NBL has an average metro audience that hovers around 40,000.
The only problem is that while ‘Summer v Winter’ does a good job of generating discussion, it’s an over-simplified debate.
There’s a wide number of potential NBL schedules – including some that feature both summer and winter months – and the real question is which one of that wide number is going to reap the most benefit.
This is no either/or proposition. It’s time to start digging deeper.
Constructing the perfect schedule requires looking through two lenses: the talent-minded lens, which analyses what best caters to quality players, and the fan-minded lens, which is about grabbing the attention of casual sports fans and the basketball fans that don’t currently engage with the NBL.
The talent-minded lens
Cole, Gaze, Holmes and Bruton all seem to look at the schedule through the talent-minded lens.
There’s a fair argument for them doing so – an improvement to the on-court product can be expected to boost off-court indicators too.
The key fact one must be aware of here is that basically every major basketball league in the world starts in October or November. Therefore, even a semi-radical change would put the NBL notably out of step.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Holmes pushed for a January-May league to take advantage of the international calendar.
Imports cut mid-season by European teams could be tempted by the offer of a full-season deal. The same applies to those holding out for an NBA deal that never comes, à la Jonny Flynn and Sam Young recently, who were both signed over a month into the NBL season.
The delayed start may, however, mean the league is less appealing to your James Ennis types – recent NBA draft picks looking for a higher-paying ‘gap year’ than the NBA’s minor league, the D-League.
What might best appeal to this group is a season that starts a bit earlier but wraps up by late November or December. This would allow them to join their NBA team’s D-League affiliate after their Australian stint.
From an import perspective, it’s hard to advocate pushing further along than a January start date.
In a straight winter season, the NBL would overlap both the end and start of international seasons – making it a difficult league to transfer in and out of – and it would also clash with NBA Summer League, training camps and pre-seasons.
Top imports are typically trying to get the attention of NBA scouts so that could be a deal-breaker, although there’s some chance D-League players looking for a higher-paying gig in the off-season might start looking our way.
The other guys we’d ideally like to recruit are those from the top tiers of Aussie talent.
For this, let’s run with Cole’s suggestion of having our overseas stars use the NBL as a second income.
The idea’s potential is restricted by the fact the seasons of top European clubs end around mid-June and start up again early October, leaving only a small window for the likes of Joe Ingles to come back for an NBL cameo.
That’s if there’s a window at all, which may not be the case in Olympic and World Cup years.
But who’s to say bringing home some big name players, if only for a two- or three-week stint, would not have its advantages?
Teams in the Big Bash don’t pass up Test players just because they can only manage one or two appearances. Quite the opposite – they use them to market the team, be interviewed in the team polo and sell memberships.
If the calendar passes through July or August, even though there’s a few obvious differences between the two sports, this model might just be replicable.
How contractually possible it is for these players to have ‘second teams’ is the question.
It’s difficult to conclude which schedule actually works best under the talent-minded lens, but what we’ve gone over so far gives you an idea of what helps and hinders.
The fan-minded lens
The other approach begins with looking at how potential schedules would clash with the more popular primetime sporting options in Australia.
The current schedule gives us an insight into the effect of competition.
For its first three months, October to December, the league tends to chug along nicely, as you can see with the TV ratings from the previous two seasons:
But then, the Big Bash comes along. The Australian Open starts. International cricket moves to primetime.
The A-League heads to finals. The NRL and AFL pre-seasons start to get interesting. The real NRL and AFL seasons begin.
From January onwards, the NBL cops hit after hit after hit, to the point where its showcase event – the Grand Final, which actually produces some great TV – gets completely drowned out.
Now, it’s not like October-December is a sporting graveyard.
But the events that rule those months – the Spring Racing Carnival, Test cricket, the final V8 rounds, golf – aren’t primetime and therefore aren’t direct competition for the NBL (Sunday afternoon games aside).
The NBL can get by in those months and even manage to build a little momentum.
However, in the ‘busy’ months – which we’ll describe here as all those between March and September plus January – breathing space is always going to be hard to come by.
What some winter advocates need to be aware of is that in this climate, mid-week games each week would almost be a necessity. That could be great for improving TV coverage of the league, but such games were deeply unpopular with rusted-on fans the last time they were in place.
Another factor that can be considered under the fan-minded lens is the NBA.
To get the highest possible audience for the NBL, it can be argued schedules that clash less with the best league in the world – which is now more accessible to local fans than ever – are ideal.
Perhaps all this is best summed up by a table. Here’s 12 different schedules, one starting each month of the year, and how much domestic and NBA competition would result:
From this, it would appear that with a six-month season, starting between July and September and finishing between December and February would work best domestically.
Conclusion
The schedule, it must be remembered, can only do so much. A fall in the Aussie dollar could send imports packing regardless of how it fits their calendar.
Other sports may make changes that fill gaps the NBL might choose to target. Test cricket at night anyone?
So it’s not a magic wand. It can’t fix everything. All we’re trying to do here is give the league a stronger foundation.
To that end, the status quo is neither perfect nor terrible. It’s among the best options for capitalising on gaps in the local sporting calendar.
It fits with the international season and there’s room for both the Flynn/Young types and the Ennis types.
The down-side is you only have about three weeks where you’re not competing with the NBA for interest among basketball fans – and there’s usually pre-season games in those three weeks anyway.
You also don’t have the chance to sign overseas Aussies to cameo deals.
But is this a case of the pros outweighing the cons? Or is there just not enough there to end the debate once and for all?
Here’s my personal view. The NBL could be forgiven for keeping the current calendar in place but cutting a month or so off the end of it, which I’ve suggested before.
That’s a fine and sensible approach that would hopefully mean the Grand Final isn’t as buried as it currently is.
However, if the NBL is both imaginative and prepared to do some due diligence, then a July-December league needs to be looked at quite seriously.
One of the faults of July-December is that you can kiss goodbye the Flynn/Young types, but their void could very well be filled by more Ennis types who no longer have to choose between money abroad and the D-League – they can have both.
Also, assuming it’s contractually doable (this is where due diligence comes in) big name Aussies can return to play for local teams around July and August.
You’d be clashing with the main football codes for a while, of course, but unlike the status quo you’d be doing it without going up against the NBA at the same time.
Also unlike the status quo, you wouldn’t be surrendering the pinnacle of your season to that clash either.
Instead, the Grand Final would occupy a heretofore unique space in the sporting landscape by finishing up mid-December (remembering that tennis gets access to key venues after then).
As for what week you’d start, how about one week after State of Origin finishes? Or, in years when the Olympics or World Cup disrupt the season, right after the NBA Finals?
A strategy along those lines would symbolise the NBL using the sporting calendar to its advantage, rather than being a victim of it.
But that’s just one way to look at it. Some will think an even earlier start is the go. Others will vouch for later.
An end to this debate could be a while away.
Stuart John Pearson
Guest
July to December seems to be the best option according to the graph in this artcile. Plus bring back Brisbane and Newcastle to the NBL. I have heard that Brisbane could be coming back. Plus Newcastle always provided plenty of X factor for the NBL. Especially for the Sydney Kings.
Francis Curro
Roar Pro
As much as i love basketball in Australia, most Aussie bball fans have NBA league pass and watch that rather than NBL. NBL is never live on TV either
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Comment of the year.
a
Guest
no that is a horrible idea AFL NRL and Super 15 the 3 biggest sport will be on than Michael DiFabrizio knows nothing at all sack him right now
Jorji Costava - The Guru's Guru
Guest
Holden and Ford Australia "spent a lot of money on promotion". How did that go? You need to have a product people want to buy first. Does NBL have that product? Not as I see it, not by a long shot.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Great comment Haz, found myself nodding to quite a bit of that!
Haz
Guest
For me its all about what the TV execs want to do. The future of the league if kind of governed by whatever TV network who will give the NBL a chance want to do. If they want to go to winter, then winter it is. If its summer, they will keep it there. I believe that the NBL needs to start promoting the hell out of itself next season, given that Channel 10 wont lift a finger and are just waiting for the contract to end so they can dump the NBL (which is what it seems they will do). My issue with the NBL is that it doesn't take itself seriously. The NBL must spend any money it has on promotion. It also needs to "tidy" up the game night experience, reduce music during games, have strict criteria for what is allowed from court announcers and DJ's and make a night at the basketball as good an entertainment and sporting package as possible without pissing anybody off. Take the cringe factor out. Easier said than done, but its possible. Gradually and cautiously expand to 10 teams by bringing back the Brisbane Bullets and Melbourne Magic (yes, Magic, and re-instate their history, but call them Melbourne, not SE Melbourne), get an improved TV deal (a collaboration with 7mate and Foxtel is something I would like to see. Eg 1 game on 7mate, with extended coverage and a slick presentation, and 2 games on Fox). Schedule games that suit the local market. Eg: Sydney seem to get bigger crowds on a Sunday than they do on a Friday night. Adelaide do well on Saturday nights etc... Of course, the TV schedule will dictate that. If they can manage to improve in these areas - PROMOTION, EXPANSION, GAME NIGHT EXPERIENCE, TV, LOCAL FIXTURING, then the NBL is well on its way to regaining some relevance in Australian sport. If they can't work on those areas successfully, then it really doesn't matter what time of the year the NBL is played in. It will fail. Great article Michael. The NBL needs more people like you keeping the league in the public eye.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
koberulz, Understand where you're coming from at the end there. Putting the NBL GF against early season AFL/NRL matches gives the NBL more of a chance than regular season matches against AFL/NRL Finals. However, as I said in an earlier comment, basketball would have to be the only sport in Australia where the GF attracts a smaller audience than some regular season games. Those innocent "early season" matches dominate media attention and fan interest. If you don't believe "drowned out" is an apt description of the NBL GF look at any sports bulletin in April. Obviously there's pros and cons each way but I want to give an example. Historically, regular season NBL has rated poorly, even in the boom days. Regular season games were very quickly returned to late night hours after each experiment with going primetime in Melbourne and Sydney flopped in the ratings. It wasn't until the Grand Final that TV executives put it back into primetime slots. In fact, when Channel Ten ended its six-year run in 1997, here's what their head of sport told the media when asked if basketball would work on TV: "Not as a primetime sport ... Grand finals might work, but how many grand finals can you have?" So, back in the day, the NBL was failing as a TV product but it at least had its Grand Final (and Perth, who rated their socks off in WA). The situation now, one could argue, is that the TV product still isn't getting executives excited but there isn't even a popular Grand Final at the end of the season to make it look better. I'd put forward that a positive and a negative beats two negatives.
koberulz
Guest
The problem with Jul-Dec is an Ennis type would either have to be signed prior to even being drafted, or be a late addition. Then the Europe-based Aussies leave after a month or two of the season. The league would be a mess. And that's assuming you could even get the Aussies in. The other thing to consider is the players at the other end of the talent spectrum, who sit on the bench in the NBL in the hopes of getting a chance, knowing that they'll have an SEABL (or similar) gig during winter to actually get on the floor. Or even guys who have a spot in the NBL, but use a year in the SEABL (or similar) to make improvements to their games. With the state leagues off the table, what happens to those players? The NZNBL also plays winter. If there's any overlap, how will it affect the Breakers, or a potential Wellington expansion team? Additionally, you're working off the assumption that it's better to have the start of the season clash with AFL than the end, which I'm not sold on. If the two are clashing, which are you more likely to be enticed by? The early rounds of the NBL, or the NBL playoffs?
Tony Loedi
Roar Guru
Nice article - At this stage I'd prefer to just cut the last month. I think the NBL needs to really try and recruit more of the Ennis types from the D-League - In fact wouldn't it be great if the NBL was like a reserves competition to the NBA. Also the TV coverage needs to be sorted out. Channell One needs to show the games live and Surely the league can sell a couple of games to Fox.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Brian, good point on momentum and starting strong. It's an issue, although I think you're going to cop a hit on one end of the season no matter which way you go so it comes down to whether you want a big finish or a big start. It's the big finishes that produce the most lasting memories, which is why I think it's wise for basketball - a sport very far outside the sporting psyche at the moment - to go the other way. Getting people's attention again is a good starting point. Totally agree with your last paragraph, particularly now with the Boomers on the cusp of what should be a successful period.
Jorji Costava - The Guru's Guru
Guest
Basketball is a winter game. We do not want to be indoors when it is still light outside. Ever since we went to the summer league the competition has gone one direction, backwards. We must reverse the faults that were pushed under old regimes. They sorted out the pay tv problem, now get the schedule back to at the winter again. Bringing back the old clubs would help too. One of the big problems that I had following the NBL when I had a team was the change of rosters from year to year. Very little stability. That would help enormously if you could get more stability.
Big Stu
Guest
You forget the pioneer team that was booted out twice. Newcastle.1979.First game at Newcastle NSW of the NBL .Brisbane is supoose to be coming back next season. Also Newcastle is the sixth largest city in Australia. I rest my case.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Plainsman, it's very much a chicken and egg thing you're right. An eye on both is essential.
Plainsman
Guest
Thanks Michael for your article. My two bobs worth. It is a bit chicken and eggish. Do the TV ratings produce the dollars which attracts the good players or do the good players attract the TV ratings that in turn attract the money? Is it a bit of both? I would suggest that a good product will eventually win out. Let’s use cricket as an analogy. The BBL is crap cricket and an artificial contrivance but it is attractive to the sunshine cricket fans and attracts a goodly sized audience and reasonable crowds. Test Cricket on the other hand is traditional and a bit laboured but it attracts a legion of followers (tragics like me) who watch it for quality not cheap thrills. All in all Cricket is the winner with two sets of followers for two types of games. The NBL could contrive a “sunshine following” by creating new franchises (Victorian Titans anyone?) and bringing in a few more imports to spice up the game and attract some casual fans to the games or to TV. This is a fragile way to go but it might work. Alternatively it could take a long view and build up the regional clubs and associations (Canberra Brisbane Geelong Western Sydney) to allow them to re-join the league in order to grow the game steadily and look to return the league to its former glory. I do not think the timing of the season makes much of a difference. A winter season could easily be workable by developing partnerships between football clubs and basketball clubs (e.g. All Collingwood fans or Sydney Swans fans get half price entry to Tigers or Kings games). It is the quality of the games that is important. Although having a Xmas hiatus was a serious mistake and I think the league has lost momentum as a result. Basketball remains one of the biggest participation sports in Australia particularly for juniors. There is a market for good quality basketball. Artificially manipulating the season to attract imports etc may have a short term impact but my sense is that a long term growth plan based on developing quality clubs, players, coaches and let’s not forget referees will bring the game back to its former place. I know it is easy for me to say this from the sidelines but as a basketball tragic I would rather have 12 financially sound clubs with good players than eight debt-ridden franchises paying for a string of failed imports. I will watch good basketball at any time of the year.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
'not as disinterested as some of the Kings players looked, but pretty damn close' Zing! Hahaha. Mid-week games, while unpopular back in the day, will probably have to be brought back under that sort of schedule it's true. It won't be great for crowds but could be a nice revenue booster now with the TV landscape moving the way it is. Traditional programming is hurting in the time-shifting era we live in, leaving sport as one of the few things most people actually need to watch live. As a result, sport now has value in places where it might not have previously (as evidenced by trials of Sunday night AFL and Thursday night NRL this season).
Johnno
Guest
The thing with Ashes is it's every 4 years only. And you just don't play say Sydney Kings matches at the SCG on the 5 days of the test, or the 1st 3 days anyway. There will always be occasional big test match each year, and the OZ open, you just work around it, and don't schedule games in that city often when it's on. With tennis it's fine, just don't schedule matches on the semi-finals night or final done. The NBL will always have comp if it's not test cricket, go back to winter and compete in september finals time.
Craig
Guest
I agree with all the posts here so far and they are all points to consider as part of a major overhaul. I used to be a member of the SE Magic, Titans and Dragons, but can't recall the rationale originally to move to the summer season. With only one Melb team, I've lost a bit of interest broadly. I agree with JamesM that I knew the sport was on, but largely forgotten, but I think the current TV coverage isn't well promoted or consistent. And that's from someone who follows the sport! So one can only imagine those the League are trying to introduce to the sport will be even more disconnected to the coverage. It probably doesn't have the 'clout' of the more professional sports out there, and the halcyon days of the late 80's and early 90's are a distant memory. Not to say that with a proper committed promotion of the league it can't return to it. Back in the day there were marquee players and 'household' names and personalities fans and viewers could identify with and there seemed like there was a better understanding of the pathway to NBL. The ABL Baseball runs an interesting 'partnership' with the MLB and I think there's a broad acknowledgement of the talent base Australia has in the sport. Would the NBL be able to do something similar, if not with the NBA maybe the EuroLeague? The advantage the sport has is that it is played at 'all weather' venues. The disadvantage to summer is that tin roof stadiums can get a little warm(!) and people usually take the opportunity summer presents to be as far away from indoors as possible. I think it's very important to look at 3 key issues - Promotion, Expansion, and TV Coverage and their not mutually exclusive. Maybe look at the Netball TV model as one that might work, and to a lesser extent how the A-League broadcast rights enable both FTA and PayTV. It's no easy answer, and there isn't really a time all year when basketball has a clear run.
Kris Swales
Expert
I don't mind the current schedule, but have to admit that on Friday just gone for example, after a day of Test cricket, then A-League/Big Bash, I was a little bit sported out by the time the NBL game came on - not as disinterested as some of the Kings players looked, but pretty damn close. Like the sound of the July-December season, maybe start with some mid-week games while people are still trying to fill the post-Origin Wednesday night void. As people's NRL/AFL teams start to dip out of finals contention, they may start to turn their attention to the NBL before footy season's out. December for the finals is definitely a good time. Great stuff Michael. Oh, and if I may suggest your next article - "Is Sam Young the worst best signing in NBL history?"
Brian
Guest
Firstly well done on an informative and clearly researched article. The problem with a July start is that starts and momentum are important in the Australian sporting psyche. The HAL tried starting in August so they could finish pre AFL/NRL and it was a disaster. The other problem is that by diverting from the International calender you are always one step away from problems. Say the Olympics happen in September (Like Sydney) or the World Cup is delayed to August. You end up without time to wrap it up before Christmas. I think its very important that World Cups and Olympics are promoted as there really is an under utilisation of the Boomers and Opals in the promotion of Basketball. These NT should be a way of introducing potential rusted on fans to games exactly like the BBL is trying to do for Cricket.