Gazing into the crystal Sherrin: predictions for the AFL season

I wouldn't say that the Swans didn't win the premiership because of Tippett coming in. Have you seen our injury list? Bringing someone in who averaged more than 3 goals a game is by no means a bad thing! Putting money on it now: Tippett to get more goals than Buddy this year...

Ben Johnson retired early in the season. It was his own decision and he should be shown the respect that he deserves, as he was not 'cut'. But I do agree with you. Didak, Krakoeur and Russell were at the point where they weren't in the best 22. I think that Jolly could have played this year, though, but choosing Grundy and Witts over Jolly is a decision that I understand. The one that I'm ruing is Shaw. It's such a shame that he had to go, but if it's the best decision for both parties (Shaw and the club) then I guess it's for the best. Thomas, on the other hand, well I don't care at all.

I agree. Predicting that Richmond will finish 4th is a big call. What will have changed between last year and this year that will see them earn a top 4 spot? You make an interesting point with Geelong. You can't write them off, can you? On one hand, they've lost a lot of experience since last season, but on the other hand, people wrote them off in 2011 and they went on to win a Premiership. Personally -- and I say this with caution -- I don't think they'll be amongst the top teams, but I may eat my words. As a Collingwood supporter, I'm more worried about this season than the last few, but with such a strong midfield, a powerful forwardline and some of the most impressive young players in the competition, I still think that we/they can make the finals. The one I'm not sure about is North Melbourne. Will their inability to close games out last season seep into this season?

Swans will suffer the disruption of bringing in such a big name player, happens to most teams recruiting a player expected to fulfil a key role especially in the midfield or forward. Takes a year or so to bed down. Happened with Tippet this year, and there are plenty of examples elsewhere.

Yes I am excluding the 2 finals matches because firstly Collingwood played just hte 1 finals match and 2 The majority of the players mentioned didn't play in the final. Jolly got injured he wasn't dropped and by the time he was fit again he hadn't played for a long time, and it isn't just that Lynch is old, he is also very average. And the list has gone backwards becasue if/when you get injuries your depth is not there, last year the likes of Thomas, Beams, Jolly, Johnson & Didak got injured and you had these second and third year players to offer the depth, this year if you lose any of the second and third year players to either injury or form who do you have for the depth player? And Thomas & Shaw are both getting a game elsewhere.

if swans cant win the flag this year with there list of perfection i will eat my hat. sorry tigs supporters but 9th would be good result with only jack to kick a score and a few oddbods around him to kick a couple

2.46 actually, I think you're excluding the 2 finals matches. Anyway, Collingwood is a young team, their 2nd and 3rd year players are not the same players as they were in September 2013. As for their rucks, Grundy, Lynch and Witts. Yes 2 of them are very young, and the 3rd is very old, but remember, Jolly couldn't get a game under these 3. To think that the list has gone backwards because of 7 players, 6 of whom can't get a game elsewhere in 2014, is a little naive.

You know if we were really being honest the fans of Freo, Hawthorn, Port, maybe even Sydney would be nervous coming up against the Tigers in a final. Maybe Essendon too? But Carlton, Collingwood and Geelong fans wouldn't be nervous at all.

2.69 to be exact - but who are the 2.5 players and who adds the depth those 2.5 players provided last year - Beams is 1, do you really expect Grundy to be able to ruck for a full year? I am not saying losing those players is fatal but it does impact, especially as other clubs around you have improved their list.

7 players ALMOST playing enough games for 2.5 players. It'll be a struggle, but I think Collingwood will cope.

Hmm, frankly you might've had the opposite effect on me, Stewie. Looking at your list I would expect most premiership contenders to have a stronger 25th-30th bracket than it appears the Swans have. Particularly when you think how many of those first 22 players have struggled with injury lately.

Ok, here's my opinion (well, someone else's opinion who I agree with) of the Swans' best 22, if everyone is fit: B - Smith, Richards, Johnson HB - Shaw, Grundy, McVeigh C - Parker, ROK, Hannebery HF - Jetta, Franklin, Rohan F - Goodes, Tippett, McGlynn Fol - Pyke, K.Jack, JPK Int - Malceski, Reid, T.Mitchell, Bird Depth (in rough order): B - Rampe, Laidler, LRT, Marsh, Lockyer, Dick, X.Richards, Jones, Aliir M - Cunningham, Towers, Biggs, Lloyd, Robinson, Hewett, Perris R - Naismith, Nankervis, Derickx, P.Mitchell F - Membrey, Walsh, B.Jack Depth? I don't mind it, especially defence. Rampe would be best 22 in most sides. LRT is a dual premiership player, and a good swingman. Rucks are solid, if barely (Naismith is a tall lad, grew 5 cm in the off season). Forwards are a bit light-on, but the great thing about the swans is their midfielders are also goalkickers. In 2012, the leading goalkicker was Jetta. Feel free to tear apart.

Slane - The word is "consistency" yes their best was bloody good but the gaps exposed by Carlton demonstrate just how much they have to go to push into that top 4 - don't get me wrong I think the Tigers are a good side but to get into that top bracket, or hold off the likes of North (or even the blues) they have some areas they have to work on.

I don't think anybody truly understands our pain. If we had our own version of 'Joffa' he wouldn't put his jacket on until he boarded the train at Punt Rd.

Totally! And despite those glaring weaknesses and holes they still finished 5th! Despite only being able to beat Carlton once they still stuck it to Freo and the Hawks! Despite having no decent back-up in the ruck they pummeled Port and punched the Dons in the guts. Riewoldt was their only forward target and they still kicked the 5th most goals. Even with a brittle backline they managed to be the 3rd best defense in the competition. None of these are reasons why they should go backwards when their draw will be even easier. They certainly might be reasons why the Tigers won't win the flag. But that isn't the discussion we are having.

NO SLane I am saying that in the 2 games against Carlton (and possibly others but as a Carlton supporter I will focus on the games I watched intently) they had some serious weaknesses exposed - it wasn't as simply as a choke, it was some real structural flaws. The first of which was that Carlton had 2 quality ruckmen which meant that whenever big Ivan went off the ball the blues dominated the stoppages - recruiting Hampson could resolve this although he has had 2 knee reco's and has never reached his potential. The second was that they lacked a target up forward other than Riewoldt. And fianlly their backline still lokks a little brittle.

"Is there a logical reason why they should finish outside the top 4 or even 8 as some people have predicted? Or is it just simply people assuming they’ll choke. Again. For the umpteenth time." As a tiger supporter for 40+ years who also bleeds yellow & black, i can say that there is no logical answer. It is all perception now that we are chokers/pretenders and perception to others is their reality. How often do we look back on a season with so many "what ifs?" and "should haves". I guess now me like a lot of supporters want to see that this is the real deal, the new dawn, the giant awakes et al. But having had it promised time after time in the past 30 odd years means we'll keep a lower profile until and if IT (the P word) actually happens.

8

So last year, despite being the same old choking Tigers, they finished with 4 more wins than the blues and were pushing for top 4. This year they have an even easier draw but will finish further down the ladder? Will they choke extra hard this season compared to last season? Will they take choking to new heights(depths)? Is that what you are saying?

Their 2 games against Carlton at the end of the year should give you an idea.