We’re all dreamers in the weeks leading up to the AFL season. We fantasise this year could really be the year – the young guns will step up and the mid-tier players will become elite.
Your favourite player is sure to win the Brownlow and your captain will hold up the premiership cup come September.
Yes, the only thing more exciting and agonising than the proper AFL season is the anticipation that precedes it.
Part of the ritual of the countdown is to pour over the predictions of commentators in the hope that one of them will have good news for your team.
I both love and hate pre-season predictions. Everyone is an expert and everyone has an opinion.
Not only is it frustrating and meaningless, predicting how an entire season will unfold before the first ball has been bounced is of course a fool’s errand.
Well, I am one such fool.
Despite being less accurate than Travis Cloke’s kicking, making bold predictions at the start of the season is fun. So here I go:
Premiership
The Swans’ mix of run and grunt off halfback and through the middle will be combined with some serious firepower up forward.
It will be the year of the Swan.
Brownlow Medal
Many people expect Trent Cotchin to win a Brownlow at some point in his career and I’m one of them.
He is a proven vote winner in a side on the rise and I predict 2014 will be his year.
The runner up will be Patrick Dangerfield.
Coleman Medal
Despite the earlier jibe at his expense, I expect Travis Cloke to finally straighten up in front of goals in 2014.
A new interpretation of rules around marking contests will give the big man more of a chance to use his strength so he will have plenty of opportunity.
And the new-look Collingwood forward line, with Ben Reid and Jesse White, will allow Travis to spend more time in the goal square.
Rising star
Most people will tell you that Jack Martin is a lock for the rising star but favourites rarely win it so I’m calling it for Luke Dunstan.
He will get plenty of time in the guts with St Kilda and he has the body and approach that will allow him to make an impact from his first game
Most improved
North Melbourne’s Shaun Atley has what it takes to become an elite midfielder this year. The rebounding defender’s explosive pace is exactly what the Kangaroos need in the middle and he has been training with the midfield group over the offseason.
North Melbourne is on the rise and Shaun Atley will be part of the reason for them taking the next step in 2014.
Wooden spoon
Sorry Lions fans but it’s going to be a tough year for Brisbane. The club lost some key young talent in trade week and even though it made the best of the draft with good picks and solid recruiting, it will take a while before those picks will mature.
But don’t despair Lions fans, I don’t predict you’ll wallow at the bottom for long.
So, there you have it. I’ve nailed my colours to the mast and I’m sure I will hear about it if I’m way off the mark.
I only ask one thing – if you disagree with my predictions then don’t just tell me so, put your reputation on the line by commenting with your own predictions below.
phil mcloughlin
Guest
Without a doubt this years' afl season is going to be very tight..with many sides certainly capable of improving big time. I believe the 2 sides from western australia are going to do very well .with sydney,hawthorn ,geelong.essendon and north melbourne being the trend makers'. Richmond is going to go out of the 8 because they don't have the physical game plan or physicality to off set the opposition on a consistent basis. Nice guys finish last end of story.too many nice guys at richmond..simply only one Nick vastuin..who could be moulded into a Mark Ricchuto type bully. Mickey Milkshakes' Blues will also be there abouts..Carlton simply don't like losing.The afl is too rigged and those sides with money are always going to be on the improve. Unfortunately for Richmond they have too many of the same ilk type players 'eg. jake king, nathan foley, shane edwards,chris newman, bacha houlhi ,steve morris. shaun grigg ,shane edwards and now the injured Conca. too small physically...if these players' all play in the same team on a consistent basis..it goodbye tigers'! Size, speed and ball magnets who can earn the hard ball..these mentioned players' are not. I think Hardwick is a good coach, but he needs to get angry with those in and out types who don't committ to a winning philosophy! but they need to let MaRK williams get into these pygmy type players' and turn their individual mindset around..He must be allowed to do this as he will toughen up that timid lot..or send them on their way! The tiger army waits for a response on the field...see how right I am as thev season develops in a months' time.
barney
Guest
hahaha yep. But i do believe that they will be the biggest improvers. Best list of 20 - 24 yr olds in the afl.
Porter
Guest
I think the top 4 this year will be Collingwood, West Coast, Fremantle and Hawthorn. Coleman Medal winner will be between Josh Kennedy and Travis Cloke Brownlow Medal will be a close one but I think that Dayne Beams may be a good dark horse if you want to take a punt, but I won't fall over in shock if Dangerfield or Pendlebury take it out. Wooden spoon is a hard one but I think the Saints and Bulldogs are going to have a fight between who finishes last, you can never rule out Melbourne, but they have to improve under Roos, don't they??? Rising star will go to Dom Sheed just over Luke Martin Most improved player will go to Stephen Coniglio. Coach of the year will no doubt be Lyon, he is a master!!
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
The effect of the intechange cap is grossly over-rated. Basically, rather than two five minute breaks, someone takes one ten minute break.
Mac
Guest
GWS wooden spooners. Interchange cap is going to take a toll on the young bodies. Simon Black's worth at the Lions is oversold in the great man's last year judging by the stats.
slane
Guest
Adelaide supporter?
barney
Guest
Table at the end of the year: Fremantle Sydney Adelaide Essandon Hawthorn North Melbourne Geelong Port Adelaide Richmond West coast Collingwood Western Bulldogs Carlton Gold Coast Melbourne Brisbane GWS Saints Not Sure about West Coast and Carlton could move up or down.
Me too
Guest
The flag - haven't given it much thought. But Freo to finish runner up. Brownlow - a midfielder - not selwood given the new tackling interpretation. Coleman - roughhead. Rising - Dunstan Bottom -not saints . Saints will be improved this year - much better coach, players happier, youngsters have come on a bit, 2013 versions of Milne and McElroy not a loss, Dal is. Will finish above GWS and the Dees, possibly above Lions but they're still hunting picks so bottom four unless they get a couple of upsets in rnd 3 and 4 and decide to go for it.
The Aficionado
Roar Rookie
I guess one of us will have egg on their face come September... odds are it will be me.
The Aficionado
Roar Rookie
World Traveller who do you think will get that fourth spot?
The Aficionado
Roar Rookie
Agree SportsFanMelb. That's why I said in the article that I don't think they're going to wallow down the bottom for long.
The Aficionado
Roar Rookie
Thanks for nailing your colours to the mast too johno. Essendon in the top for is a big call. I know that had a good run for the first half of last season but I think they'll be 6th-10th this year. Agree with you on the anomoly of a year without a coach being sacked though.
johno
Guest
Top 4 (in no order) Freo Hawks Swans Bombers Premiers Freo (just like West Coast who lost their first final to the Hawks in '91 the Dockers will be back with avengeance in 2014) Bottom 4 Saints GWS Dees Lions Wooden spoon - Saints. New coach, no Dal Santo, McEvoy. Top 8 sliders - Tigers to make way for Norths, Power 9th, missing for the Bombers Rising Star Luke McDonald - the year in the VFL will have given him the confidence to mix it in the seniors. Runner up Jesse Hogan Brownlow Fyfe, daylight second Most Improved player Viv Michie - under Paul Roos the kid gets serious game time and becomes the Dees new in and under kid! Coleman medal Buddy - playing on the SCG means he can dob them from the wing First Coach sacked None - a bizarre year in which no coach gets the boot. Although Hardwick will be sweating if the Tigers drop to 11th
The Aficionado
Roar Rookie
Ooh, not a bad call.
The Aficionado
Roar Rookie
I agree, Suns could definitely be knocking on the door of the 8.
The Aficionado
Roar Rookie
Thanks Gecko. I agree, it's almost a toss-up between the Lions and Saints for me.
alicesprings
Guest
Agree its a fight between Saints, Demons, GWS. That said i think GWS will finish above the later two. Would suck to be a Melbourne supporter..cant imagine!
alicesprings
Guest
Most improved i think will be the Suns. Ill go on record as saying they will make the eight this year. It is going to be mighty hard for teams to beat them this year up at Metricon. Not sure what the odds are but i definitely need to put some hard earned on them this year.
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
TomC and Andrew - Interesting times for the Lions indeed. TomC as a Lions man you are probably closer to it all but I think they have put in place a few things now that will bear fruit in the coming 3-5 years incl new board, new coach and the mooted new training facility at Springfield. What the Lions really need to identify is their new forward structure for the future and get game time into those guys who will be at the club in 3-5 years time. I have said on other articles that I believe that the Suns will win both QClashes this year and 2015 to level the tally at 5-5. Ill be at both games this year for sure, they should be great with the young talent on display.
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
Ill put my neck on the line and say that the Tigers will claim the coveted 4th spot!