Could this current batch of Australian three-year-olds be as good as the season before – a crop that was highlighted by All Too Hard, Pierro and It’s A Dundeel?
It may seem a crazy question to pose because the batch of 2012/2013 three-year-olds were rated the best in at least a decade. But I think it’s possible.
If the best five three-year-olds last season were All Too Hard, Pierro, It’s A Dundeel, Epaulette and Fiveandahalfstar how much better can they possibly rate than this year’s three-year-old batch that is led by Zoustar, Guelph, Polanski, Long John and Shamus Award?
Last season, a layer of depth was added by Sacred Falls, Super Cool, Your Song, and Snitzerland. This season it is added by Bull Point, Eurozone, Hucklebuck, and El Roca.
Last season, the three-year-olds All Too Hard and Pierro were second and third in the Cox Plate (2040m, Group 1, weight-for-age). This season the Cox Plate was won by the three-year-old Shamus Award.
Last season’s Caulfield Guineas (1600m, Group 1, three-year-olds) winner All Too Hard won the Orr (1400m, Group 1, weight-for-age), Futurity (1400m, Group 1, weight-for-age) and All Aged (1400m, Group 1, weight-for-age) in the Australian autumn.
This season’s Caulfield Guineas winner Long John ran ninth in the Cox Plate but won the UAE 2000 Guineas (1600m, Group 3, three-year-olds) by five lengths in Dubai last week.
Last season’s Victoria Derby winner Fiveandahalfstar won the BMW (2400m, Group 1, weight-for-age) in the autumn and the Derby runner-up Super Cool won the Australian Cup (2000m, Group 1, weight-for-age).
This season’s Victoria Derby winner Polanski hasn’t been seen at the races since but the Derby form looks as good as the previous season’s. Already, the third place-getter Thunder Fantasy has won the Autumn Stakes (1400m, Group 2, three-year-olds) convincingly and fourth place-getter Criterion was a fantastic fourth upon resumption in Saturday’s CS Hayes (1400m, Group 3, three-year-olds).
There may not be a Triple Crown winning three-year-old among this year’s three-year-olds like there was with It’s A Dundeel last year but that may be because there is more depth in the staying three-year-olds this season.
After all when It’s A Dundeel romped in the Triple Crown (and romped is definitely the right word) he didn’t have to beat Fiveandahalfstar or Super Cool once.
Instead he was met by Proisir in the Randwick Guineas (1600m, Group 1, three-year-olds), eventual Doncaster winner Sacred Falls (2000m, Group 1, three-year-olds) in the Rosehill Guineas and Hong Kong-export Philippi in the Australian Derby (2400m, Group 1, three-year-olds).
In actual fact, despite being one of the best horses (in my opinion the best horse) in Australia, It’s A Dundeel has never beaten Super Cool or Fiveandahalfstar. Super Cool has a 5-0 winning record against It’s A Dundeel and remarkably It’s A Dundeel has been favoured to beat Super Cool each time.
Undoubtedly the best of last season’s three-year-old fillies – Dear Demi, Zydeco, Royal Descent, Norzita, Snitzerland, Samaready (who missed almost all of her three-year-old year) and Commanding Jewel – are, by comparison, no match for this year’s best filly Guelph.
Four-year-olds Snitzerland, Shamexpress, and Samaready are very good sprinters. In fact, Snitzerland was incredibly quick and strong when winning Saturday’s Black Caviar Lightning (1000, Group 1, weight-for-age) from the fast-finishing Shamexpress and Samaready but I think they will meet their match when take on star three-year-old Zoustar this autumn.
Last season, three-year-old Pierro won the Canterbury (1300m, Group 1, weight-for-age) and Ryder (1500m, Group 1, weight-for-age). But it could well be three-year-olds winning those races this season as well.
Zoustar is the horse to beat in the Canterbury and could El Roca be the George Ryder winner?
El Roca is one of the reasons I’ve engaged in this debate about the respective three-year-old crops today. He’s the X-Factor in this current group of three-year-olds. A New Zealander like It’s A Dundeel, El Roca is on the verge of ripping the autumn carnival apart just like It’s A Dundeel did last season.
Here’s a big call, but I believe it, I think El Roca looks better than the three-year-old version of Pierro. Pierro was a good three-year-old. He was second in the Caulfield Guineas and third in the Cox Plate.
In the autumn, he fought hard to win the Hobartville (1400m, Group 2, three-year-olds) by a nose against eventual Group 1 handicap winner Rebel Dane, beat More Joyous comfortably in the Canterbury and again had to fight hard to narrowly win the Ryder. In the Doncaster (1600m, Group 1, handicap), with 56 kilograms, he was second to Sacred Falls.
It’s a good CV but it isn’t great. You have to remember when Pierro entered his three-year-old campaign, he had already won the two-year-old Triple Crown. Although sometimes close to, he would never actually surpass the heights he reached as a juvenile at three.
El Roca, on the other hand, enters this autumn as a shooting star. His performance, when a luckless fifth in the Caulfield Guineas last spring, was outstanding. Having used petrol to race on the speed, he was pocketed on the home turn and dragged back through the field.
When he finally got out at the 200m he was in tenth position with no momentum up. He was entitled to plod home. Instead, in that final furlong, he picked himself up and careered through the finish line to take fifth.
This was a Caulfield Guineas that produced a Cox Plate winner and UAE Guineas winner, and yet it is easy to argue that the best run was in fact the run of El Roca.
After all, he made Prince Harada (the runner-up in Saturday’s CS Hayes) in sixth and Charlie Boy in seventh look slow.
Resuming on Saturday in the Eskimo Prince (1200m, Group 3, three-year-olds), El Roca met Dissident, the horse that finished fourth in the Caulfield Guineas, and he killed him.
Now, it’s very possible that Dissident is no longer the same horse he once was. After producing a herculean effort to finish second in the Golden Rose (1400m, Group 1, three-year-olds) behind Zoustar, Dissident has not returned to the same level since. In fact, he hasn’t even got close.
I’m pretty confident that as good as El Roca was on Saturday, Dissident was equally as disappointing. So if I think El Roca has arrived as a superstar in Australian racing, what does that mean for Dissident?
On Saturday at Rosehill, El Roca showed good speed to race just behind the leaders. Before the home turn, he used a good change of gear to move up towards the lead. At that moment, on slow ground, he had Dissident, who raced in El Roca’s slipstream, off the bit.
In the straight when El Roca accelerated to the lead, Dissident was no match. In the last 100m, when the race was over, El Roca held Dissident. Actually in the last 50m, Dissident began to concede more ground to a hard-held El Roca. That’s almost damning.
El Roca was explosive and dominant. And Dissident was sluggish and tired. I hope Peter Moody has plenty left to draw upon with Dissident because he wasn’t in El Roca’s class on Saturday. The track was wet and the conditions testing, so perhaps Dissident has an excuse. He needs one though.
Who knows how good El Roca is. I think he’ll make weight-for-age grade without any issue but it’s safe to say that Dissident isn’t there at the moment.
There is some uncertainty in the path El Roca should take this autumn. In my opinion, he looks like a miler from the absolute highest echelon. The mile is a great distance because it asks great questions of a horse’s speed and stamina.
El Roca has loads of both. He has a turn of foot, he can sustain his top speed over at least two furlongs and he has the stamina to a run a hard mile. I’d like to see him in a George Ryder and I wouldn’t mind having a few dollars on him to win the Doncaster.
I think El Roca was the best three-year-old to step out on Saturday. But the next best were all found in Melbourne.
The CS Hayes was won by Hucklebuck impressively after he enjoyed the dream run in transit. He was produced at the top of the straight and unwound powerfully to arrest the lead from a strong Prince Harada, who franked what I thought was a very good first-up showing at Caulfield and was good racing on top of the speed for the first time. In third was The Quarterback.
Going into Saturday, one of the most interesting facets of the Hayes was that it would reveal plenty about Hucklebuck and The Quarterback who were facing what I thought was the toughest tests of their respective careers to date.
Undoubtedly, despite getting all the favours, Hucklebuck shone. He will be a big player in the Australian Guineas (Group 1, three-year-olds) next month. The Quarterback on the other hand maxed out at 1400m. In the last 100m, despite getting a drag into the race on Hucklebuck’s tail, he could only hold down third. He was losing ground at the death.
The Quarterback looks like he will struggle to fire at a mile. Behind him were two very strong runs. Criterion carried 57.5kgs which was 2kgs more than Hucklebuck and The Quarterback, and 3.5kgs more than Prince Harada, yet he was steaming home into fourth.
He will appreciate the mile and set weights of the Guineas and looks on track for the Rosehill Guineas and Australian Derby.
In fifth came a very interesting run from Teronado. He stormed home and will also be a chance in the Australian Guineas. I’ve been a fan of Teronado for a few months now because I was taken with the way he was finishing off his races in Brisbane in the spring.
Actually, I backed him first-up in Sydney, when he met Pirandello (fourth behind El Roca on Saturday) and Miss Finland’s son Woodbine. And Teronado was average. He loomed up to figure and then just petered out.
He was three lengths behind Pirandello at the wire and supremely disappointing.
Teronado was also beaten three lengths by Hucklebuck on Saturday. Interestingly Pirandello was four lengths inferior to El Roca on Saturday.
Does that mean Hucklebuck is four lengths inferior to El Roca as well? It’s possible and the formline is there to be drawn but I wouldn’t think so. That formline loses serious credibility when you factor in Teronado was miles better in Melbourne than what he was in Sydney. Still, it’s interesting nonetheless.
Off his CS Hayes win Hucklebuck has been installed Australian Guineas favourite but I think that’s premature and perhaps just a little bit undeserved.
The concern with Hucklebuck is the mile distance. He was beaten narrowly in the Carbine Club (1600m, Group 3, three-year-olds) on Derby Day at Flemington when a short favourite after coming off an impressive victory over 1400m and seemingly having the race in his keeping at the 200m mark.
He didn’t stay the distance on that occasion and he won’t be winning such a strong Guineas in two weeks if a lack of stamina means he can’t offer a killer blow at the finish. Hucklebuck may have strengthened in the summer, we’ll soon know, but he probably needed to if he is to win a Group 1 mile.
Perhaps there’s more chance of a Solicit victory in the Guineas. This filly was a fantastic third in the Crown Oaks (2500m, Group 1, three-year-olds fillies) last November after setting a strong tempo and she was equally impressive first-up in Saturday’s Vanity (1400m, Group 3, three-year-old fillies) after running her opponents off their feet.
She’ll go forward in the Australian Guineas, will be strong at the mile and if there’s any hint of leader bias, as sometimes can be the case at Flemington, she’ll be a big winning chance. After all, she has outstanding form at the track and has produced at Group 1 level previously.
For mine, in what shapes as a vintage Australian Guineas (for what it’s worth, a renewal that will be lengths stronger than last year’s), it is Group 1 form that I want to be siding with.
So that means the likes of Bull Point, who will be running in the Futurity (1400m, Group 1, weight-for-age) on Saturday, Eurozone, Polanski (who will start in the Guineas first-up at this stage), Shamus Award, and Solicit hold sway personally.
The autumn is always the time of year for three-year-olds to stand up but this year there’s probably more excitement with the three-year-olds than there is usually.
Despite what I’ve written here, perhaps you’ll still think this crop of three-year-olds are not yet worthy of being compared with last year’s cracking group.
One thing’s for sure – especially remembering there’s a strong renewal of the Blue Diamond (1200m, Group 1, two-year-olds) coming up on Saturday – the breeding industry is producing outstanding racehorses.
I say long may it continue because good horses make good racing. If only those breeders wouldn’t take our good horses away so soon!
Bondy
Guest
Barrier draw for the Blue Diamond (http://www.racenet.com.au/news/97667/UPDATED--2014-Blue-Diamond-Stakes---Field-and-barriers). Earthquake is definitely under the odds now, she should be taken on.
ellie
Guest
Atalante - Doncaster winner
Bondy
Guest
I simply can't genuinely evaluate a horse like Pierro without the inclusion of his brilliant 2 yr old career ,its very difficult to gauge horses that supposedly will be stars. El Roca has very good credentials but he's simply been blocked or checked for a run in the guineas he's not done much else. I surely concede that El Rocca slapped Dissident around on the weekend and Dissident started Fav after his second to Zoustar in the Rose in a WFA race and failed "he could've been over the top" so the form lines are solid . All form lines suggest that El Roca should be right there in anything they put him in. One key point that should be addressed and that is El Rocca is a Kiwi we hardly see him, hes abroad more times than not and generally juvenile form out of New Zealand is limited and more times than not it generally doesn't stack up apart from a Our Maizcay or Sunline. I think a great gauge would be if they're an even bunch then they should all possibly be hitting the line together like the 3 yr olds in the AJC Derby of Octagonal, Saintly, Nothin Leica Dane and Filante they all finished within a length and a half from one another thats solid own age form. I didn't think much of El Roca before reading this I have a greater respect for him now. In the lightning on the weekend Shamexpress was in front of Samaready after 100 metres interesting . Just off topic lads for the Guineas I've got Eurozone about $2.90 Bull Point $3 -$3.10 and Hucklebuck around $3,50 thats how I think the market will settle .Look out for Hucklebuck I backed Bull Point at his last start and Eurozone was slashing but Hucklebuck is the sneaky one he's done everything right he is the one whos concerning me right now.. I feel like I've written a novel.
GWR
Guest
Liberty's Choice is one speedy Black type 3 yo colt. Gai rates him up there with her better 3yos.
Mike from tari
Guest
These 3 year olds will stand out in the big races because the best 4 year olds have gone to stud.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Bad news about Complacent. He went amiss and will miss the autumn. Must wait until spring with him.
Don
Roar Rookie
Keep up the good work Justin. I forgot to add that I followed the Roar experts with Complacent last year as well. Looking forward to seeing Complacent running again soon. Maybe the Aus Guineas?
Justin Cinque
Expert
That's great to hear! By the way it was Brad Durrant who spruiked San Diego at 80/1. It was a great tip!
Don
Roar Rookie
Thanks Justin. I jumped on him each way last year because someone mentioned him as having some form in a Roar article (maybe you or Alfred) and he placed 3rd at 80:1 that weekend behind Long John. I had him in a box trifecta with Polanski and Epic Saga in the Norman Robinson and did well out of it. So I stuck by him, Polanski, Shamus Award and Happy Trails through the Spring. All because of info from the Roar and not because of any real racing knowledge ...thanks to you guys. Cheers. Maybe I'll wait until he races the 2000m as you suggest.
Haradasun
Guest
Agree the Guineas is shaping up to be an absorbing race this year. In recent times it has lacked some depth. Shame el Roca isn't heading down for it. 3yo racing is as interesting as I remember. They appear to be a talented bunch and quite even. I'm also in the camp that hucklebuck will appreciate the mile. I still think Eurozone, bull point, Polanski and shamus still eclipse him though, but it was a great win on Saturday! Owners of Polanski will be disappointed. I think he is quiet forward so they will be itching (haha pun intended) to cure him of his worms and get him running. -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Justin Cinque
Expert
I think wait until he gets to 1800 or 2000m and then assess him. As I said he's behind the eight ball from a Group 1 perspective right now.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Hi Don, I don't know about San Diego at Group 1 level. He was pretty average on Saturday. His best - second to Polanski in the Norman Robinson - is pretty good but his overall career performances indicate that he is probably a tad below Group 1 or 2 level most times.
Don
Roar Rookie
Justin, I'd be interested to hear your thoughts of San Diego's chances to string together some runs like last Spring? Maybe for the Australian Guineas or the Darley Aus Cup. In his first race back in the CS Hayes he looked to be well placed but after the bumps with Hucklebuck he dropped back and didn't put in at all whereas Hucklebuck settled and accelerated. Were his placings last spring just a purple patch or do you rate him?
Justin Cinque
Expert
That's a good counter argument Andrew. He is bred to do it. I just saw the Carbine Club again and he was very good but not as strong as Paximadia (who got a cheap lead) in the last 50 yards. For mine, he is a query. Perhaps an even bigger question though on Hucklebuck is his ability to settle. He pulled on Saturday. He pulled in the Carbine Club. I don't think he pulled first-up but Dom took off really early that day. If he wants to be a middle distance horse that needs to be sorted.
andrew
Guest
Justin - think your reservations on hucklebuck running 1600m are unfounded if basing of the carbine club run. paximadia has a soda in front the day and they ran 1:38, nearly 5secs outside track record. paximadia got away with several plus 12 sec sectionals mid race and tourner simply fell asleep and gifted the race to him. hucklebuck pulled about 6 lengths off him in the straight and ran clearly the best last 600, 400 and 200 of the race. whilst I am still to say he is proven at 1600m, and I cant form the contrary view off his only 1600m ran. he certainly has the bloodlines being by elvestroem (by danehill - circles of gold) and sires like scenic and oreilly appearing on the dam side. in fact, I think he will be damn hard to beat in the aust cup over 2000m the following week.
Justin Cinque
Expert
It is entertaining isn't it? This Australian Guineas could be one of the great Guineas in recent years. There is so much depth. Yep, often you can get it wrong when assessing young horses but we bucked that trend with Eurozone and Bull Point. I was lucky enough to be at the races that day when they clashed for the first time. I loved the race. I loved even more that they bet nearly $5 Eurozone as well! Not many others were there and I don't think many of those that were appreciated the spectacle but retrospectively perhaps they do now.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Hi Cam, Really good comment. I agree with plenty of it. Just on Dissident, he is assessed harshly but only because he is meant to be one of the leading three-year-olds. That's three starts in a row now, at a high level, where he has been a bit disappointing. It's only to get harder from here. Maybe he is going to best placed at Group 3 level and as you say, if that's the case Moody will be onto it in a flash.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Great piece again Justin, always a pleasure to kick-off Monday morning reading your insight. Firstly, I'm glad to see Teronado get some recognition for his run, I haven't heard anyone else really mention him, Criterion was drawing all admirers of the beaten brigade, and he was very good with the weight. If the speed is on in the Guineas, Teronado could run right over the top of them, if he runs a strong mile (yet to race beyond seven furlongs). I think you're being a bit harsh on Dissident, but I suppose he is being judged on being a Group 1 horse. Yes, the form of the four horses that finished behind him is still questionable, but he still did run second to an emerging superstar, and was okay. He won't be able to turn the tables on El Roca going forward, but Moody is a master of assessing precisely where his horses are at. Dissident will be placed to win lesser events if the trainer determines that he isn't a Group 1 horse this autumn. Like with Dissident, it might be time to accept that another horse trained at Caulfield, Prince Harada, is a decent horse and nice three year old, but there are simply others that are better, and perhaps there are several of them. Prince Harada was good again, but doesn't win because he's not good enough to. I couldn't be with him in the Guineas over Hucklebuck, Bull Point, Eurozone or even Solicit (toyed with them on Saturday, albeit they were a bunch of 0-78 fillies). It's a pity Polanski has had his two set-backs. It will be remarkable if he can be competitive in the Guineas first-up. On the Lightning, Snitzerland deserved her victory, but the race was hers for the taking once the two year olds weren't taking up the running. Shamexpress was obviously excellent and will be the toughest to beat in the Newmarket, Samaready will improve second-up, Pago Rock would be competitive in a Melbourne Cup he's so honest, and Unpretentious is also one to follow in a weaker WFA race or even the Newmarket with the weight advantage he'll get. Jumping from one didn't help, he came from near-last at the 400m, and peaked on his run at the 100m. To be beaten 2.5 in that company was very sound indeed.
Drew H
Guest
I don't know Justin. I only know that Pierro looked fantastic even running second, and Zoustar also looks as good now. The race between Eurozone v Bull Point has put the writing on the wall for months to come. The associated article by ROAR was great insight. Perhaps we have better and more exciting battles to come this year than we had last year. I feel entertained, even if I'm picking too many seconds. Some say "the (undiscovered) best horses run many seconds".