Sam Burgess will flop in rugby

Sam Burgess will be a let down in rugby – you heard it here first. The speculation surrounding a switch to the fifteen-man code has been confirmed with Burgess announcing he will be moving to Bath after the 2014 NRL season.

Playing at the World Cup in England has been cited as the decisive factor in the decision to make the switch.

Most reports are assuming he will comfortably slot into the centres in union and be a key player in the World Cup next year.

Considering how great big Sam has been for the Rabbits and England during the last five years as dynamic, offloading wrecking ball in attack and a big hitting enforcer in defence, I can see why there is a lot of excitement about him playing in the World Cup.

However, I’m not sure I’ve seen enough from Burgess to see him make the successful switch to union, here’s why:

His first issue is speed. When looking at the more successful league to union converts in the professional era, the majority of them have been suited to the extra space given to them in the backline of union.

Mat Rogers, Wendell Sailor, Lote Tuqiri, Jason Robinson, and more recently Sonny Bill Williams and Israel Folau all experienced great success, but all had speed to burn.

Burgess is very mobile for a man of his size, but compared to most backs playing international rugby he’s literally not up to speed. In attack, especially in a World Cup, every opportunity must be taken. Half chances must be converted, half breaks turned into line breaks, and I don’t think Sam has the gas to do that from long range.

His second stumbling block is his ball-playing ability, or lack of. Of the players mentioned above, Sonny Bill is probably the closest to Burgess in terms of the role expected of him in the centres.

In league Sonny was a wide running backrower or centre, whereas Sam is a prop or backrower who does his best work in traffic up the middle of the park.

Sonny already had one of the best offloads in either code before he made the switch, as well as the ability to ball play (although this aspect of his game developed greatly during his time in rugby).

When you look at the best inside centres in world rugby at the moment, Ma’a Nonu and Wesley Fofana, both can throw 25m passes on both sides under pressure, as well as play the ball at the line and choose the best option.

From what we’ve seen from Burgess in league, I’d be surprised if he had those skills.

Away from attack, defence also poses a large problem for big Sam.

Apart from the head start he’ll be giving away against most international centres, there’s the widely held belief that the centres are the hardest place to defend in rugby.

Most code-hoppers play in the back three, at least until they learn the game in terms of reading play, breakdowns, commitment to rucks etc.

Defence in union is nothing like league, in that the centres are constantly changing sides of the ruck, their position on the field (unlike a prop in league always defending the in the middle), and generally have the most space to defend of anybody in the team.

This is especially evident on a big open side or centre field scrum. Remember Timana Tahu in the centres for the Wallabies in 2008 v the Springboks? Not pretty.

Time is also against Burgess, especially considering the fact he will play in the NRL in 2014. This means he will arrive in the UK at the earliest in September, giving him 12 months until England kick off the World Cup against an Oceania Qualifier on September 18 2015.

Even the highly skilled Sonny Bill took effectively three seasons (two with Toulon and one in the ITM cup with Canterbury) before making his international debut, and despite being a reserve winger during the 2011 World Cup, it wasn’t until 2012 at the Chiefs that he really shone as a world class centre.

Burgess won’t even get a rugby pre-season under his belt before the Northern Hemisphere season.

When looking at other similar players to Burgess in terms of their position and style of play to switch from league to union, the two names that come to mind are Willie Mason and Andy Farrell.

Willie was a flop in the code, and although Andy Farrell did play for England, he only made eight international appearances.

The final hurdle for Burgess is England already have a world class centre in Manu Tuilagi, the 116kg wrecking ball that almost single-handedly denied the All-Blacks an undefeated season in 2012.

There’s also the very reliable Luther Burrell and the ever-improving Billy Twelvetrees already in the England set up and staking strong claims during the current six nations, as well as a few other candidates that might have something to say about Burgess’ place at the cup.

Considering these issues I’d say Sam Burgess might have bitten off more than he can chew.

His name, reputation and RFU pay packet will probably see him given the nod in any close selection calls, but he has a huge task ahead of him if he wants to make a real statement as a top class rugby player, let alone in time for next year’s rugby World Cup.