Some of the things written about Zoustar over the past six months have been over the top and created too much expectation of the relatively untried colt.
Those listing Zoustar as the best horse in the country seem to have ignored the fact that he hasn’t even raced outside of his age group.
On Monday, fellow Roarer Justin Cinque listed Zoustar as “the horse to beat” in autumn. My esteemed colleague has also argued that the colt won “the title of the Australia’s best sprinter” on Derby Day.
He’s not alone either. Regular rider of Zoustar, Jim Cassidy, said the colt will start “odds-on” in the TJ Smith Stakes while trainer Chris Waller has labeled his colt as “the next big thing”.
There seems to be a common trend in Australian racing to get caught up in the excitement of three-year-olds, but Zoustar is yet to achieve much compared to the likes of Pierro or All Too Hard at the same point of their careers.
The hype around Zoustar has been catalysed by his sale price of $20 million to Widden Stud, where he will commence his stallion career at the end of the current season.
In comparison, Pierro was sold to Coolmore for $35million and All Too Hard to Vinery Stud for $25 million.
The major difference between Zoustar and last year’s major stallion prospects is the fact that Zoustar is yet to prove himself in open company. He supposedly has all this potential, but his sale price fails to reflect his achievements.
One of the major draws for Zoustar as a stallion is the fact that his successful sire, Northern Meteor, passed away last year. This effectively opens up Zoustar to immediately take over the role, though Zoustar’s maternal bloodline lacks the lustre of other stallion drawcards.
Out of Zouzou, a Redoute’s Choice mare, Zoustar’s dam won her maiden but nothing else. Zoustar is only her second foal to hit the race track.
Her first was Drill Bit (by Starcraft), who had 14 starts for no wins.
Compare this to All Too Hard (who was out of Helsinge) or Pierro (who was out of Miss Right Note, a dual hemisphere winner), and the differences in breeding are worth noting.
Of course, bloodlines only make up a fraction of expectations when it comes to stallion prospects. The rest is formed by performance.
In spring, Zoustar claimed multiple Group 1s when he won the Golden Rose (1400m) and Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m), both against his own age group.
As a three-year-old yet to compete outside of his age group, it was surprising to see a stud deal get done so early in the season.
Zoustar had an impressive two-year-old season but failed to strike at Group 1 level. It wasn’t until his Golden Rose victory where he was an $8 chance that he was a serious contender on the three-year-old scene.
One of my frustrations in racing media is how loosely the term “stallion-making race” is bandied around. The term was used ad nauseam throughout the spring when discussing Zoustar’s two Group 1 victories.
The Golden Rose is probably the more desirable of Zoustar’s two Group 1 wins based on the fact it is run over 1400m. This positions the race perfectly as an indication the winner can run a strong 1200m or 1600m – the two most profitable distances in Australian racing.
The field which Zoustar beat in the Golden Rose was very good but by the end of spring, none of the horses he beat had claimed a Group 1. To add some credibility to the race, he needs Bull Point, Prince Harada, Eurozone, Dissident, Sidestep, Fast ‘n’ Rocking or Cluster to win as many Group 1s as possible.
Zoustar’s Coolmore Stud Stakes win was much less impressive. He beat Notlistenin’tome, who remains largely unproven, and Lion Of Belfort, who had a crack at weight-for-age class but was uncompetitive in the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes where he finished six lengths behind Lankan Rupee.
Pierro and All Too Hard were placed in a Cox Plate and came from a bumper crop where the horses they beat came out with big wins. The strength of Zoustar’s opposition is bleak to date, which draws away from the dominance of his two-length Coolmore Club win.
The weight of expectation on Zoustar is significant, yet his win in the Coolmore Stud was more than a second slower than the previous year’s winner, Nechita.
When Chris Waller announced Zoustar would undergo a Royal Ascot campaign before retirement, it was just assumed the colt was the best sprinter in the country.
The bookies certainly think so. Zoustar has been installed as the $4.50 favourite for the $2.5 million TJ Smith Stakes anti-post markets. Run over 1200m under weight-for-age conditions during The Championships, it is now the premier sprint race in Australia.
It seems unfathomable that there are proven weight-for-age sprinters behind Zoustar in the market.
Buffering ($8) is coming off three consecutive Group 1 victories, while Samaready ($9), Snitzerland ($11) and Moment Of Change ($17) have all won weight-for-age Group 1s in the past six months.
Zoustar will seek to open his account against older horses in the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes (1300m) before a crack at the TJ Smith (1200m) and possibly the All Aged Stakes (1400m) before heading to Royal Ascot.
Since the TJ Smith Stakes was upgraded to Group 1 in 2005, Melito is the only three-year-old to win.
Racing needs its darling and three-year-olds are often the first place we look. With Black Caviar and Atlantic Jewel gone, the mantle has supposedly dropped into Zoustar’s lap.
There’s still a chance that he’ll come out and blow us away next month. But when assessing his breeding, strength of beaten opposition and strength of future opposition, Zoustar is entering autumn a long way behind Pierro and All Too Hard.
ellie
Guest
he will be miunting mares very shortly Alf. Previous mum and dad owners took the money and ran.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Thanks for that great insight Noel. The TJ is going to be a ripper. Best of luck!
Noel Bearman
Guest
Some rather bold comments by all, however without stable knowledge you are all in the dark, you can only go by what you have seen either live at the track or by video coverage, maybe sectionals as well,what you guy's don't know is this horse so far has only been about 85% fit (yes I was a lucky owner b4 Stud deal) yes I may well be a little biased when it comes to Zouy but i'm with Justin he can win anything this time in, trust me guy's you have not seen the best of him yet, now his beaten runs, Run To The Roses it was not his Grand Final simple as that what happened next start??? J J Atkins yes Jimmy may have no he did make mistake (sorry Jimmy)he should have stayed outside of Romantic Touch not drop in behind R T and even given that he had to pull back to get around Paximedia he ripped out a huge chunk of turf when Jimmy pressed the go button and lost momentum for about 150m now i'm not saying Zouy would have beaten R T BUT IT WOULD ONLY HAVE BEEN A NOSE IN IT EITHER WAY,Just a few thoughts for you guys to take on board, and I've never seen an outstanding Northern Meteor 2yo yet they will all be better 3 & 4yo's,i also have horses in work with Rob Heathcote and I have told him to bring a windbreaker down to Sydney cause Buff will get a chill when Zouy fly's past him at the 75m mark lol and as for my 85% comment well when the goin gets tough the tough get going but i'm sure you might just see him abt 90% this time in bearing in mind Waller would never want to see him break down he's a ball of muscle this time in and ready to fly,i hope zouy proves you wrong Alfred but I love all your thoughts, opinions ah it makes for some interesting reading Cheers to all happy punting guy's Noel
Tristan Rayner
Editor
I'm a sucker for a champion horse, and even more I love calling them early and making sure everyone remembers that fact. I'm with Justin. He can be anything! (That said, it is somewhat bizarre that Buffering, the champ, is at big odds. He's worth a look in at those odds!)
Isaac
Guest
All class but as mentioned, the jury is still out. IMO Buffering's connections can rightfully claim they have the best sprinter in Australia at the moment. He has the runs on the board after his dominant spring. Bring on the TJ.
Buzz
Guest
Zoustar will not be beaten in any race he contests from this point on , he is a superstar and will give buffering and snitzerland a cold as he flies past them
Bondy
Guest
Just off topic , I'm just reflecting on what a brilliant sprinter BCaviars been and her impact on racing she's largely taken out the likes of Buffering for "inxs" of two seasons, now she's gone Buffering could take all major sprints before him for the next year at least ,thats not out of the realms of possibility .
Bondy
Guest
Luke Good point with Eurozone he was racing largely in the winter then quickly prepared for the GR subsequently he was over the top in that race, I believe .
Justin Cinque
Expert
If Buffering is rated 127 then Zoustar has every chance of getting to 130. He could rate close to 130 in Australia by beating Buffering. That would mean being slightly more impressive at RA should deliver Zoustar a low-130s rating.
Justin Cinque
Expert
They're not big ifs though. The improvement needs to happen but it should naturally. Even if he didn't improve he's going to be hard to beat in anything.
The Doctor
Guest
Very well thought out article Alfred and you are spot on the money. Zoustar is enjoying all the hype and massive stud deal without the runs on the board at this stage. Of course he could race up to expectations and be the star of the Autumn then Royal Ascot. He may need to if he's to justify the price tag placed on him by Widden. Where does it leave them if he fails to live up to expectation in the Canterbury Stakes and Tj Smith. We have Justin Cinque upholding the flip side of the argument. However his own words provide support for the point you are making. Justin writes: "If he takes the same improvement between spring and autumn that he took last year between winter and spring" and "if Zoustar continues to improve". The key word is "if" and $20m is a lot riding on those "ifs". Only time will tell whether Widden jumped the gun with the price tag, In reality we don't have to wait long. Canterbury Stakes is only 3 weeks away and that race should answer plenty of questions. No doubt the 'Grand Final' will be the TJ Smith when all the top sprinters converge.
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
He would have to put in a So You Think performance to get 130 plus rating at royal ascot. Probably unlikely given the average standard of UK sprinting, but if he won by a few lengths it could be possible.
Luke Andrews
Guest
All the major mile races are handicaps though, so it is an accusation that the top milers often get. You have to step up to 2000m to prove yourself as a wfa star. And all of these theories and formlines are going to be tested in the next two and a bit months. Love the Autumn! As for the Golden Rose form, it is becoming the Grand final of the early Spring. Horses like Bull Point and Eurozone had been racing and developing over the winter. The GR gives an end point to that first campaign and then the rest to come back as Autumn 3yr olds. They have probably been the most impressive 3yr olds so far this autumn. Zoustar had been racing in Brisbane over the winter (2yr old grp 1 placed adds to his value) so keeping him fresh was the only way they would have gotten him to the Coolmore. Also as a sprinter the Autumn is when you make your mark, but any colt that wins the two sprinting 3yr old grp1s in the spring will be worth a fortune in the breeding barn.
Bondy
Guest
Thats the key isn't it one word, Autumn.
Justin Cinque
Expert
More specifically Bondy, that's the beauty of autumn!
Bondy
Guest
I believe Zoustar should go for the Doncaster I'm convinced he'll run a mile . I accept that breeders/owners can go silly with the supposed next Super Stallion but thats part of the game . One thing I would add if you've got a gun colt like Zoustar why would you bother racing open company like Snitzerland, Shamexpress or Samaready when you've got the likes of the Golden Rose and Coolmore just waiting where you are almost certain to collect first prize. Thats the beauty of racing he'll now step out into open company lets see how he goes.
Quinn
Guest
Gee you blokes are on the ball. Love reading your stuff on Mondays and Wednesdays. Guelph is better than every horse listed there. Not sure how Boban got that rating when all he's done is win handicaps though.
Justin Cinque
Expert
And he will hit that 130s mark at Royal Ascot. TimeForm severely underrates Australian performances. Our highest rating is 141 from Phar Lap
Justin Cinque
Expert
In my opinion, ratings organisations like TimeForm are under-rating this batch of three-year-olds. But they will come around!
Alfred Chan
Expert
Into the 130s? You're really laying it all on the line here. Keep in mind that at the end of 2013, Timeform rated All Too Hard at 129, Pierro at 128 and Atlantic Jewell at 127!