Australia turned in another sloppy performance on day four of their Test against South Africa at Port Elizabeth yesterday.
The match was turned on its head in the afternoon.
Australia had been bullying the Proteas’ attack at 0-126 with openers David Warner and Chris Rogers both in sublime touch.
Then a trio of awful shots from Alex Doolan, Shaun Marsh and Michael Clarke handed South Africa the momentum.
Clarke’s tame dismissal, guiding the ball straight to second slip while trying to play an ill-advised deflection to third man, ignited Dale Steyn.
The South African spearhead had flames streaming from his nostrils as he produced some startling reverse swing to account for Steve Smith and then Brad Haddin in quick succession.
Suddenly, Australia had gone from being a realistic chance of engineering an incredible victory to a pile of rubble.
The Proteas’ remarkable rebound performance after being slaughtered at Centurion has created a delectable showdown in the final Test at Cape Town starting on Saturday.
Selection issue: Chris Rogers saves his career
When you are a 36-year-old batsman with just 13 Test caps to your name, your position in the side is never fully secure.
You are always just a mere handful of failures away from being under heavy scrutiny. So it has been for Australian opener Chris Rogers.
Last month he was riding the crest of a wave of achievement, having been Australia’s leading runscorer across the back-to-back Ashes series.
He had offered much-needed steel and circumspection to Australia’s faltering top order.
A vastly-experienced batsman who had wrung every drop of talent from his body, Rogers entered this series with South Africa as one of Australia’s key players.
Then, in the space of three innings, his career nosedived to the point that there was a very real risk this could be the last match in which he donned the baggy green.
Rogers had managed to cobble together just 10 runs across those digs as he struggled to deal with hostile offerings from the Proteas’ powerful pace attack.
Placing him in the crosshairs further was the imminent return from injury of Shane Watson.
The all-rounder appears certain to play in the third Test after Australia’s pace battery laboured through this match.
Veterans Ryan Harris and Peter Siddle showed the wear and tear of their heavy workload the past seven months, suggesting that Watson’s reliable bowling would be crucial to lighten their collective burden.
Given Shaun Marsh and Alex Doolan played sublime innings at Centurion, and Watson has had success at the top of the order, it appeared Rogers may be the man to make way.
Not any more.
His confident, fluent knock of 107 yesterday ensured that he will be in the Australia XI at Cape Town.
His battle may not be completely over however.
With Australia’s next two series against the spin-heavy attacks of Pakistan and India, the selectors may be concerned by Rogers’ poor record against spin at Test level.
Unfortunately, the veteran may have to continue proving himself over and over if he is to keep his belated Test career bubbling along.
Stats watch: Marsh’s curious record
I have often heard cricket followers say that to get a true measure of a batsman over a season or year of cricket it is wise to remove their one or two highest scores then reconsider their average.
I don’t ascribe to this theory but the idea is that some players’ averages are inflated by one or two huge innings which mask their otherwise unremarkable performances.
Is it fair then to do the same for their lowest scores?
Extending the logic, surely their big tons and their ducks are equal as anomalies within a stream of more relevant and representative scores.
This statistical approach works wonder for Shaun Marsh’s Test record.
Removing the innings in which he has failed to get off the mark, Marsh has 493 runs at 55 for Australia.
The problem is that, unlike for the vast majority of specialist batsmen, for Marsh a duck is not an anomaly.
In just 15 Test innings he has recorded six of them. Yes, six ducks in nine Tests.
Extraordinarily, Marsh’s record of registering nought is even worse than that of former New Zealand paceman Chris Martin, known as perhaps the most inept batsman in Test history.
Martin, who averaged just 2.36 with the bat over his 13-year Test career, made 36 ducks at a rate of one every three innings.
Marsh’s duck ratio is one per 2.5 innings.
Regardless of this, I sense he will probably survive this Test and front up again at Newlands, with Doolan instead being dumped for Watson.
Bearfax
Guest
In that Anfal, I agree completely. I like competition not constant walk overs. Loved it when Oz was on top but its not good for International cricket if they are on top all the time. And seeing Australia being flogged a couple of times meant that you could look forward to the gradual rebuilding over several years, the excitement of watching new stars emerge, while other countries had a time at the top. Well said.
anfalicious
Guest
Heh. I love nerds being esoteric about things I don't understand. Statistics always kicks my bum, that's why there's other people to do that for me :P Good work.
anfalicious
Guest
Exactly, who cares about going down 2-1 to South Africa when we just white washed the Ashes. I know which score line I'll be remembering in 20 years. I got so bored when we were winning *everything* that I actually relished losing over the last few years. The Ashes loss in England last year was the icing on the white washed cake, except that it came before, and you wouldn't ice the cake before you'd made the cake... Look the metaphor may be imperfect, but sometimes losing makes winning feel better.
Ruminate
Roar Guru
Being beaten by a ball is not necessarily the same thing as being surprised by it. I'm sure that they expected reverse, Steyn in particular was too good for them none the less.
Ruminate
Roar Guru
So a quality batsman can't get out to a cracking delivery? A bit harsh to judge there. It has a very good spell from Steyn that shouldn't be under rated and wickets all be attributed to poor batsmanship.
Ruminate
Roar Guru
Agree with you that Harris will likely be rested, but i remained concerned about Siddle's pace, he has to be down at least 10 km on his peak and has lost penetration. He is low to mid 130's now when he used to be capable of 150km at times (2 years ago vs NZ). He had an ok 2nd ashes, but does not seem the bowler that he used to be...
Bearfax
Guest
Love a good tease.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Ahh Bearfax you have left me in tangles!
Buk
Guest
Avon - yes wish some of my students had submitted something along that line, would have made the marking a lot more interesting. I would treat not outs the same as actual scores, for a quick compromise; but ultimately average scores for every, say, 3 innings, to use as "scores" would be best approach. Nathan Lyon would stuff it up though, as he had so many not outs in the last series. Made me laugh as I had images of you as stats man for the test team going into the Australian dressing room to tell Marsh he needed to do something about his standard deviation and median score (0 at a guess, it was interesting to find in the article he scored 0's at a faster rate than Chris Martin of NZ).
Ruminate
Roar Guru
Plenty said about the batting, Clarke's lack of runs is an issue. With the bowling, Siddle's drop in pace is a major issue and his penetration and strike rate is a concern. Don't really know how the ICC rankings work but his performance has not been that of # 10 in the world. I have been a huge wrap on Sid's in the past but he's gone from mid 140's to mid 130's and just isn't as effective as he was. It did seem to me to coincide with his change to being a vegetarian...or maybe I'm imagining that? Given his current level of performance ( as distinct from how he bowled 2 years ago) I would rather see a fit James Pattinson in the side, the question around Pattinson is, of course, is he match fit for Test cricket?
Ruminate
Roar Guru
Me too, it was certainly a WTF moment, for a minute I thought that I was reading an old 'cached' article about the previous SA tour to Aust. ...didn't see that capitulation coming though on reflection I should have!
Clark
Guest
Yes I remember bowling well against Pakistan I think it was
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
Maybe it's the scoring slowly thing. Doesn't work so well at the beginning of a Test series, but becomes.more effective as the series wears on...and on... I would like to know if there has been as many Tests played by a team in 12 months, like the Aussies have. Is there any precedence for 15 (virtually 16, if you aren't totally strict with dates) Tests, 10 away and five at home?g
Bearfax
Guest
You are someone Vikram and your comment is worthy
Bearfax
Guest
Spot on Ragav. But you should also have qualified that statement with,and excuse me for being a stats junkie, they were the only older batsmen with a FC average of 50 or more. All the others have had 40 or less averages. Big difference in quality and that's why they succeeded and the others didnt.
Bearfax
Guest
Oh Ronan. You missed that bit of humour didnt you. Slowing up there lad. Last test was played a few days ago wasnt it?
Ragav
Guest
Hughes, Khawaja, Smith and Warner were drafted into the side much younger than 30. Rogers and Hussey are the only batsmen after Katich to have made their debuts after 30 in the last few years and were successful.
Ragav
Guest
I agree. It is not as if all the catches were straight forward either. The pitch also was responsible for some of those mishits. Warner is the one batsman that took the fight to the South African bowlers in the 2nd Test. He might say something impulsive in the media but now I feel it seems he is confident like in the mould of Hayden and it is not just a mind game against the opposition.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
+1
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
SA's last Test before this series was the Boxing Day match against India whereas Aus played a Test a week later at the SCG.