Pre-season is a bit like Christmas eve – full of positive vibes and anticipation. But surely not every team can be heading up the ladder in 2014.
I decided to feed lots of non-numerical data into my footy predictions software program, and the results were gloomy indeed…
St Kilda
Good new coach, good captain. Sinking ship. Besides Jack Steven and maybe Arryn Siposs, Saints recruiters have very little to be proud of in recent years. No-one quite understands why they let go of Ben McEvoy but everyone understands why Nick Dal Santo and Brendon Goddard wanted out.
Brisbane Lions
Simon Black gone, Jonathon Brown on his last legs. Next tier are uniformly mediocre players and the youngest tier all want to go home. If the Lions’ new, inexperienced coach can win even a few games with this mob, he’ll be doing well.
GWS Giants
Nowadays, nearly half of the team are genuine AFL level players. The problem is the other half.
Gold Coast Suns
The Suns were just another battling club until a few wins late in 2013 gave them some hope. Let’s not get carried away. If they can keep their best 22 on the park they’ll be competitive at home, but they still don’t have enough genuine AFL level players.
Western Bulldogs
Plenty of midfield fire-power but not much at either end of the ground. Will be lucky to tread water in 2014.
Melbourne Demons
If any two of Chris Dawes, Jack Watts and Mitch Clark can fire up forward, the Demons could be the big movers in 2014. The forward line and back lines have no weaknesses except a lack of depth.
The main problems with Melbourne in 2013 – lack of midfielders and lack of confidence – have now been corrected. Still, the Dees will need another struggling year while instilling real system and injecting experience into their young list.
Carlton Blues
A second year under Mick Malthouse will have everybody on the same page, and Dale Thomas will help inject desperation. But with Chris Judd and Jarrad Waite likely to have injury-interrupted years, the Blues are pretty thin on talent, especially up forward.
Geelong Cats
No more Chapman, Corey, Podsiadly or Hunt means a loss of experience, but the long term injuries to Steven Motlop and Allen Christensen will hurt more, as they were integral to Geelong’s running game. If big Tom Hawkins has another bad year, the Cats could be in for a serious slide in 2014.
Adelaide Crows
Fortunes will rise or fall with Taylor Walker this year. If he has a breakout year, the Crows are headed up. If he has another bad year, the Crows will go down.
Port Adelaide Power
Could get better consistency from John Butcher and Chad Wingard in 2014, but hard to see them improving on last year’s terrific effort.
West Coast Eagles
Good forward line and defence, though not much depth. At crunch moments, the best midfields get on top. The Eagles only have Matt Priddis who can stand the heat. Will struggle away from home.
North Melbourne Kangaroos
If midfield keeps improving, a top-four finish is a possibility, but if Drew Petrie is covered up forward, the Kangaroos are forced to run the ball in. That’s a tiring game plan, and it finds them out in the last 10 minutes of games. The Kangaroos are also a fragile mob. Scott Thompson is about the only consistent footballer at the club.
Richmond Tigers
Can Brett Deledio or Dustin Martin provide consistency in the midfield, or will their foot skills be needed across half back? If the Tigers had picked up Dale Thomas or even Dal Santo, they’d be a chance to move upwards in 2014. Instead, their thin midfield will be exposed again.
Essendon Bombers
The Bombers’ forward line was their weak link in 2013. With Stewart Crameri and Scott Gumbleton gone, they’ll need Joe Daniher or Michael Hurley to become the focal point. They won’t be taking many marks in 2014, so the main forward strategy will need to be locking the ball in.
Collingwood Magpies
Great midfield and great all-round depth but Travis Cloke is the only proven performer up forward. The Pies’ goals will need to come from their runners, and the better drilled opposition teams will have strategies to close these down.
Fremantle Dockers
No team is more dependent on one player than the Dockers. Matthew Pavlich up forward is irreplaceable. The Dockers’ rebounding is still a weakness, so they’ll be vulnerable to teams like the Hawks, who can win the ball out of the middle and lock it in the Dockers’ back half.
Hawthorn Hawks
I know we said their midfield was ageing in 2013, and they proved us wrong. But it’s even more ageing in 2014. Hard to see where improvement will come from. Teams with two good defensive talls, like Geelong, will continue to test the Hawks.
Sydney Swans
If Ryan O’Keefe and Adam Goodes struggle this year, the Swans’ culture will wear thin. They’ll be playing for dollars instead of each other. The Swans’ rebounding is highly reliant on Nick Malceski and Jarrad McVeigh, and much will depend on whether opposition teams can lock down on these two.
In the end, my computer has predicted that only the Swans and Hawks have a chance of finishing in the Top 8 in 2014.
If these two decline in 2014, it’ll make for a season of low quality football but a very even competition.
Gecko
Roar Pro
Franko now you're being misleading. I said the last 5 games - so that means Rd 21-23 plus the 2 finals. See those stats at http://www.fanfooty.com.au/players/year.php?firstname=Chad&surname=Wingard&year=2013 Wingard was a great small forward in 2013 but currently wouldn't be listed in the top 30 most influential players in the AFL. He could potentially get there. Let's hope Butcher improves, and doesn't have a repeat year. Neade, Jonas, and Moore could improve and give Port slight improvement, but they are not going to win games for you in 2013 (and they'll be balanced out by the decline of Cornes and Cassisi). I agree Hartlett could have a big impact if he learns to deal with taggers.
Franko
Guest
"but note that over the year he averaged over 22 possessions per game from rounds 1-19, then dropped to 18.2 possessions in the last 5 games" Just factually incorrect Rd 19 v Adelaide - 24d Rd 20 v Geelong - 21d Rd 21 v Gold Coast - 19d Rd 22 v Fremantle - 20d Rd 23 v Carlton - 14d Ave 19.6 possessions per game last 5 rounds, season average was 21.2. Again, you won't be looking for improvement from All-Australian Wingard, if he makes All-Australian again, I think we'd be pretty happy. Improvement from other players sure (Neade, Jonas, Moore even Hartlett), but the ones you listed need repeat years, not improvement ones.
Gecko
Roar Pro
Franko we're in agreement that Boak and Westhoff were great in 2013, but if you want the Power to improve in 2014, you gotta identify where the improvement is gonna come from. I can't see much room for improvement besides Wingard and Butcher. Will concede Wingard played fine in the 2013 finals series (averaging 1.5 goals and 19 possessions), but note that over the year he averaged over 22 possessions per game from rounds 1-19, then dropped to 18.2 possessions in the last 5 games. As a young bloke with real talent, he's one that could improve in 2014. Pies, Roos, Melbourne and Bombers all look like they'll improve more than Port in 2014 (more up-and-coming talent), and at least two of those will finish above you.
Franko
Guest
"Wingard had a great year but trailed off towards the end, including in the finals" 1st final against Collingwood he kicked 3 goals and had 19 disposals, also got 19 disposals in the second final against Geelong. In the last 5 rounds he average 19.6 touches for 3 goals a game. . "Boak, Westoff and others had great years too but I can’t see much room for improvement in those guys" Well as Boak made All-Australian, I wouldn't really be asking for 'improvement', just another AA season would be fine. Same principal for Westhoff, maintaining status quo would be more than satisfactory.
Gecko
Roar Pro
Jack and Franko, thanks for at least writing about footy.....but.... If someone misses the year with injury, we can safely say they've had a bad year. That's surely not controversial. Wingard had a great year but trailed off towards the end, including in the finals. Boak, Westoff and others had great years too but I can't see much room for improvement in those guys. Butcher has for a couple of years shown flashes, and indeed injury has been one reason why he hasn't shown more. So Wingard and Butcher are two who could improve in 2014. You've got two good coaches over there in SA, but not much hope in 2014.
Franko
Guest
I put that one in the same bracket as: "Could get better consistency from John Butcher and Chad Wingard in 2014" Butcher was mostly injured and Wingard made All-Australian. Not sure what Walker could have done from the physio room.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Taylor Walker *If he has another bad year*....he was sidelined last year from injury? Pretty thin statements in general.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Nahh, he's saying theres only two teams in contention for the top eight :)
Gecko
Guest
Terry your article is full of pithy statements (which could be succinct or provocative, depending which way you look at it). I'm just surprised people mainly focused on your 2nd last sentence.
Australian Rules
Guest
Arguably, the only thing unfunnier than an unfunny article, is an unfunny response to an unfunny article.
Adrian
Guest
Geeeeeez..rather sad attempt at humour. A 10 year old could come up with something more humorous and relevant. Waste of 2 minutes...pathetic. How did you guys get this past the editor???
Jan
Guest
Not very encouraging for Saints fans however we will always support our team in good and not so good times. As for "everyone understands why Nick Dal Santo and Brendon Goddard wanted out." - really? I don't think so.
Gecko
Roar Pro
My computer program has a better sense of humour than Milo and David. Agreed Crows have started 2014 badly, but think I Vince, Henderson and Van Berlo are replaceable (Crows still have Sloane, Thompson and Dangerfield in the midfield). They just need Tex to give them a good target up front. Am actually hoping the Swans and Hawks struggle. Then it'll be a very evenly contested season.
slane
Guest
This is satire guys. Chill out.
Bill
Guest
That was THE most ridiculous article I have ever read. 2 teams travelling ok, I don't think so. Bloody ridiculous.
Brucey
Guest
Pretty sure it was tongue-in-cheek, mr Milo. Funny article.
Jack
Guest
I reckon crows are extremely thin given the fact they traded Vince and have lost van berlo and Henderson for the season already
David Kilpatrick
Guest
So are you saying there will be two teams in the top 8?
Milo
Guest
So there should be a final 2? Its a negative outlook on all teams but you could easily write a positive story to counterbalance, for nearly every team. Assume your ladder is as written from bottom to top? Otherwise where's the ladder?