So my predictions for 2014 are tough. We know that the bottom four has seemed pretty self-explanatory, but to place them in any order is the rough part.
14th on the ladder may seem a long way off the top eight, but I think the distance between 8-14 on the ladder may only be a game or two.
Picking my 13th-14th-15th has been like splitting hairs, I like one clubs midfield, but they don’t kick enough goals.
I like one clubs forward line, but they don’t get enough of the ball. Another club has a brilliant list, but half of them are injured.
Too often this has happened and it is making it harder and harder to choose.
One thing is for sure – the Brisbane Lions will not feature in the finals.
Firstly, they have a tough draw. They only play one side from the bottom six twice.
Leppitsch has said he is looking forward to the challenge, wait-what? Justin Leppitsch? That’s right, the new coach.
Having another favourite son coaching them could be good. Although I really do like Justin Leppitsch, Michael Voss should be coaching this side. Voss was the victim of his rebuild. We all know what happened at the end of 2009.
He felt his club were on the cusp of something great, loaded up on mature bodies and blew up his following seasons as all those draft picks went to you know who.
Another selfish reason why I needed Voss to stay was that Leppitsch was helping develop my Tigers in an assistant role and doing so excellently.
But enough of the selfishness.
Leppitsch is going to be good for the club but for now he is going to need time to grow with them.
What about the clubs with good midfielders but not enough goal kickers I was splitting hairs about? Well I was referring to Brisbane.
I really like the midfielders Tom Rockfliff, Jack Redden and Daniel Rich (who should all be sponsored by Triple R, by the way).
Rich averaged a shade under 20 disposals last year however he gets heavily tagged and his kicks are worth two.
As a midfield they only ranked 15th in disposals and contested possessions for 2013. They will need more from Brent Moloney, Pearce Hanley and James Aish if they’re to be taken seriously.
It will be exciting to see No. 7 draft pick James Aish make his way into the AFL. After winning two senior premierships in the SANFL, Aish is ready-made for his step into the big time.
In what will likely be Jonathan Brown’s final season, the Lions must develop more forward line options.
They finished 15th in contested marks inside 50, leaving too much to do for Brown.
Former Tiger Luke McGuane is a useful acquisition and had a career-defining season as a third forward last year. But I still wonder who kicks the goals?
They did have an even spread of goal kickers, Dayne Zorko (26 goals) and Josh Green (24 goals) were handy but more options are needed as they only finished 14th in goals per game.
Daniel Merrett, Matt McGuire and last year’s Best and Fairest Joel Patfull do a solid job of holding down the back half but need some speed to assist them as Pearce Hanley begins to spend more time in the midfield.
Again (sorry for all the stat-bashing) they were a paltry 15th in scores against in 2013.
Hanley is a star and year-by-year he will get a little closer to that Jim Stynes being the best Irishman conversation. Oh! And Dane Zorko is a jet.
The Lions are reconstructing and need to take their time with this build. They’re still a few key position players off doing any real damage to the top 8.
So I guess I’m back to splitting hairs.
Lad-View Prediction: 15th
Individual Predictions
Best and Fairest: Pearce Hanley or Dane Zorko
Goal Kicking Award: Dane Zorko
Player You Need To Watch: Jack Redden
Thing Most Looking Forward To Seeing In 2014: James Aish
In The Hot Seat In 2014: Brent Staker, Stefan Martin, Matt McGuire
Novelty Blog Award: Getting through this article without mentioning Simon Black in season 2014 *sniffle*
Cody
Guest
One kick away from finals, ins alot better than the outs and finally a game plan, sounds pretty good to me! God help the teams that finished below us, if we are going to finish 15th!
Duncan
Guest
What I forgot to add is. From following this Brisbane side, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Rich is back in WA next year. Particularly if West Coast make the finals and Brisbane do not as he has appeared extremely disappointed the last two seasons not to play finals.
Duncan
Guest
Leigh Matthews said last year he thought the Lions shouldn't drop any home matches given the advantage playing at the Gabba gives them over the Melbourne sides in particular who arn't used to playing at surburban grounds bar Geelong. They are getting top eight sides to try and improve crowd numbers I imagine as the AFL was concerned another poor start to the season and if they were playing lower profile sides they would shrink to under ten thousand . they averaged twenty thousand last season which is good for Brisbane considering it's difficult to pull good crowds there sometimes for any sport or concerts ect: as it's such a laid back lifestyle.
TomC
Roar Guru
Not really much to pick apart in this preview, but I would suggest that Staker isn't really in the hot seat. He had a good 2013 coming back from long, long term injury and signed a new two year deal over the off-season. There are plenty though: Martin and Maguire, as the writer says, and also Lisle, Bewick, Polkinghorne and Raines, Likely to be yet another season with a high list turnover, and there've been way too many of those at the Lions.
TomC
Roar Guru
Last year wasn't that tough was it? Don't think we played a top eight team until Sydney in round 6. Tough start this year though.
NORDBURG
Guest
Can anyone explain to me how the draw is worked out?The Lions had a horribly tough start to last season too and the same goes for this year.Granted,that when you finish in the bottom half of the ladder,most games are going to be tough,but two seasons in a row where they play top 8 teams consecutively before the half way point of the year seems strange. -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.