With 12 (13 if you include the Suns) sides legitimately able to make an argument that they will play finals in 2014, trying to predict where any club will finish is difficult but I would argue predicting Carlton’s place is harder than most.
Many pundits have the Blues out of the eight after a relatively lacklustre 2013 but for me (and yes I am biased) the case they will play finals isn’t hard to make but their success rests on a few key players – although not the ones usually trotted out.
My best crack at Carlton’s best 22 would be;
FB: Zach Tuoy, Michael Jamison, Andrew Walker
HB: Chris Yarran, Matthew Watson, Dylan Buckley
C: Dale Thomas, Brock McLean, Kade Simpson
HF: Troy Menzel, Jarrad Waite, Chris Judd
FF: Jeff Garlett, Lachie Henderson, Matthew Kreuzer
R: Robbie Warnock, Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs
Int: Tom Bell, Andrew Carrazzo, Ed Curnow, Andrejs Everitt
While the likes of Thomas, Gibbs, Murphy, Judd, Waite, Henderson and Jamison are obviously massive parts of any success Carlton will have, the players the Blues really need to stand up in that ‘best 22′ are Buckley, Menzel, Watson and Bell.
Buckley has been in great touch over the NAB challenge and his run from the backline has impressed most judges but most importantly he would allow Simpson to spend more time in the midfield, which provides greater depth in that area and his run and ball use can be damaging.
Menzel is a real talent who can play as a marking forward or a small and gives the Blues a great replacement for Bett’s but with possibly more flexibility due to his greater height.
Watson is possibly the most important; he showed late in 2013 he can hold down centre half-back, which means Lachie Henderson can play forward where he has shown he can be very damaging.
With Henderson forward with Waite (probably playing higher) and Kreuzer (probably playing deeper) the Blues will have plenty marking power for their quality midfield to aim for.
Tom Bell has possibly been the most impressive player of the Blues’ pre-season and, together with his form from late 2013, it indicates he is ready to have a breakout year – his size and running capacity could make him a formidable force in the Blues midfield and as his hip-and-shoulder on Trent Cotchin last year shows he could offer a lot of protection for the Blues’ classier mids.
The other benefit of the emergence of these four players (plus the addition of Thomas and Everitt) is that if the Blues put their ‘best’ 22 on the park, the likes of Heath Scotland, Mitch Robinson, Dennis Armfield, Andrew McInnes, Sam Docherty and Levi Casboult are pushed out, which creates a lot of pressure on everyone for spots and gives the Blues a lot more depth.
While I am by no means predicting the Blues for the premiership, I do believe the finals beckons and if they can make the most of a reasonably appealing first five games it could set up a push towards top four.
Macca
Guest
I am a fan of Ellard, hope he does make an impact in 2014
GTrain
Guest
Quality read macca. Very good sign if robbo can't get a game and given his pre season form I suspect Davey Ellard is a likely starter round 1.
Strummer Jones
Guest
The goal posts? That's what the Carlton players said last year.
Macca
Guest
"based on 2013 offical player ratings is the 50th ranked defender in the league and only the 4th best at Carlton." Those rankings aren't an accurate measure in this - look at the top 10 Hurn, Enright, Taylor, Hanley, Thomspon, Burgoyne, Shaw, Walker, Birchall & Reilly - who of those would youy want playing as a key defender? Taylor & Thompson, the rest are rebounding defenders which is what the ratings favour and the blues have plenty of them. Brian Lake was rated 36 and Darren Glass 40 and Jack Watts is 23 for crying out loud - those rating are a joke and Jamison is a quality Key defender. Yes Waite has had issue in the past but that doesn't mean he won't play the majorit of games this year, right now he has had his first ful pre-season in those 5 years, he is fitter than he has been at any time in those 5 years so you can't exclude him - in fact his fitness actually goes a long way to solving the problem you claim Carlton have. For our best bet at FF I assume you are talking about either Kreuzer or Casboult but either one of them will actually be a forward pcoket player- Henderson at CHF, Waite at FF and Kreuzer FP, then Everitt and Menzel also being marking targets means they have a lot of marking options.
Cat
Roar Guru
In 7 seasons in the league Jamison has played 5, 16, 13, 23, 14, 16, 24 games each season and based on 2013 offical player ratings is the 50th ranked defender in the league and only the 4th best at Carlton. None of those numbers is very inspiring in the least. Until Henderson plays a full season at one end of the ground I'll reserve judgement, though I will say he has potential and upside. As you said with Waite, problem is he has not been able to stay on the park for the last FIVE years. 9, 16, 12, 11, 14 games played in that time. At 30 yrs old that's a trend I wouldn't bet on reversing so easily. Your best bet at FF is either very inexperienced or one of your best players elsewhere on the ground.
Macca
Guest
I listened to the last match over here on the radio and while it was only about 20 points the Blues controlled the game and Port were terrible from memory - Carlton just didn't put them away. Missing Carlisle and Trengrove would be a big win for us with what I expect to be a good marking forward line (Waite, Kreuzer, Henderson & Menzel) - hopefully Schultz is a little under done.
Macca
Guest
I can't see the post
Macca
Guest
No I wasn't being technical - I just don't agree that they miss one at each end. Jamison is a quality full back, Henderson was great at CHB last year and kicked 26 goals at CHF so he fills one of those spots with quality and then there is Waite - who while you can argue has been injury and suspension prone you can't deny his quality and right now he has enjoyed his first full pre-season in year and has kicked 54 goals from 25 games in the last 2 years and he has been effective down back as well. So at worst I would say they are missing 1 KPP with Kreuzer, Casboult and Rowe all pushing for a for the third Tall spot and Watson (and possibly Rowe or McInnes) pushing for the CHB spot - with Everitt and Walker the third tall. All of this just reinforces my point in the article that Watson is the most important player to the blues chances - if he stands up at CHB they have plenty of tall options at both ends.
Franko
Guest
Few injury problems down back, Carlile and Trengrove could miss making it much easier for your tall forwards, Schultz misses this week but should be back after, apart from that all ok. I think we lost by 3 goals last time over there to you guys and I rekon it will be close again.
Cat
Roar Guru
okay you wanna be technical fine, they have KPP, but they lack quality ones.
Macca
Guest
Radelaide - In the hoem & away game against Richomdn the blues were 36 points down and Gibbs was instrumental in turning that around kicking 2 goals and having 23 possessions, against Port the Blues were down by 32 points at half time with the season on the line before Gibbs dominated the second half to finish with 26 possessions and a goal to get the blues across the line and again against the Tigers the blues were 26 points down at half time before winning with Gibbs the leading possession getter on the ground and laying 5 tackles (only bettered by Ed Curnow amazing 10) - none of these instances are flat tracks and in all 3 he was a spark. And Judd was pretty good in that final but he didn't do it by himself.
Radelaide
Guest
In the last month last year they played the Dogs, Richmond who they have the wood over, a shot Essendon and Port were looking to the finals, the first final against Richmond they were pathetic and if it wasn't for Judd hobbling around on the ground they wouldn't have won with or without Gibbs playing well, yes he possibly is their second best player but he's not a spark more like a flat track bully.
Macca
Guest
I am using the recent record of us winning the majority of game Judd has missed in the last couple of years (3 of 4 last year & 4 of 5 in 2012) to give me extra confidence for round 1!! I didn't have Docherty in my best 22 and Carrazzo was a toss up with Armfield to be honest with Curnow now the number 1 tagger. How are Port looking?
Franko
Guest
Judd, Carrazzo and Docherty all ruled out?
Macca
Guest
I'd agree whoelheartedly with that assessment.
Andrew A
Guest
I heard Rob Wiley interviewed on SEN this morning and he mentioned that Bryce Gibbs has some bruising to his hand but that it's not very serious. He also mentioned that Henderson was right for Round 1, Judd expected back in Round 3 and Carrazzo in Round 2. He also said that Carlton should improve this year with the inclusion of Thomas and Everitt, along with the natural improvement in young players such as Watson and Menzel. Murphy also looks better after an injury interrupted year last year. I think Carlton are certainties for the eight this year and possibly challenge the top sides.
Macca
Guest
Definitely Franko - The Blues first 3 rounds aren't easy but they are all winnable - they have a great record against the Tiges and who knows what happens against the bombers if we can get a win round 1 with easier games round 4 & 5 they blues could be 4- or even 5-0 but they could also play very good footy for the first 3 rounds and be 0-3 in some close games,
Franko
Guest
Round 1 Macca, it's going to be a big one. I'd fancy us on the G, but at Etihad not so much. I am a little worried that Port are more focused on beating the Crows in rd 2 than Carlton in rd 1. Anyhow, it's a big game and could really set the tone for a solid first 5 rounds.
Macca
Guest
Doesn't everyones?
Macca
Guest
Radelaide - Did you watch Gibbs in the last month or so last year, he won them the game against Port, was instrumental in the round 20 win aginst the Tigers and got 27 possessions and laid 5 tackles in the elimination final. As for Murphy he was All Australian in 2011 and has had a bad run with injuries the last couple of years. Kreuzer has also had a bad run with injuries and is young for a ruckman but he definitely needs a big year in 2014. I can't see Robinson in the best 22 and to cal time on Thomas' career is very premature.