The Roar
The Roar


Roar Guru

Joined August 2013









If so, do you think if I toss 10 heads in a row I am more likely to toss a tail next time?
Statistically speaking you ARE more likely to get tails.

Numbers Game: Which teams will rise and fall in the AFL in 2019?

That is an accurate interpretation.

Numbers Game: Which teams will rise and fall in the AFL in 2019?

That is not what he means or is saying at all. A team that losses all of its close games in one season is statistically more likely to loss more than they’ll win the next period. Regressing to a mean does not mean hitting it likes it’s a bullseye, it simply means a statistic is likely to trend towards it. Statistical outliers don’t tend to stay outliers.

There is no guarantee that the regression will be huge or even immediate. That’s why this is a prediction not a promise.

Numbers Game: Which teams will rise and fall in the AFL in 2019?

Cats will play finals. That’s as far as I am willing to commit to at this early stage.

Numbers Game: Which teams will rise and fall in the AFL in 2019?

The summary is pretty much the ‘Dummies’ version. The teams that have more positive indicators should do better than last year, the ones with negative should do worse. Operative word being should … it is still a prediction, not a promise.

Numbers Game: Which teams will rise and fall in the AFL in 2019?

Another rubbish comment with no thought put in before spewing it.

EVERY team has ‘off’ days, games they are not at their best. Bad teams lose those games, good teams find ways to win even when they don’t deserve to win. That is what close games are about. No team ‘blows everyone away’. It just does not happen.

Numbers Game: Which teams will rise and fall in the AFL in 2019?

Swans looked old and slow in the middle. The Swans key players all have a lot of bruising kilometres built up due to both the extra games of playing finals every year and the game style they play as a club.

It may be a blessing in disguise to lose Hanneberry – Swans will be forced to slot a younger (perhaps someone with some pace) into the middle – though I remain unconvinced how good that replacement will be.

For all the talk of Heeney going to be a midfield force, we’ve yet to actually see it after several years of it being hyped up.

You almost have to be keeping your fingers crossed Grundy has another year in him. Pace has never been his strong suit but if he loses any he’ll quickly become a liability (saw it happen with Tom Lonergan going a season too long). Smith is similar. Add in McVeigh and that’s a lot of age being counted on in one part of the ground. Maybe it will work for another year – maybe it won’t.

My 2019 AFL ladder prediction

Nah, Ross don’t do building, if he leaves Freo he’ll look for another team about ready to peek. GWS if Cameron is moved on perhaps.

St Kilda are not in the worst position in the AFL. Here's why

Ghost is one of the biggest hypocrites. Calls out others for ‘thinking they had it in the bag’ yet he did it all last season.

Richmond 2019 season preview, best 22 and predicted finish

Carlton is far better off than the ‘Aints are.

St Kilda are not in the worst position in the AFL. Here's why

No matter how you want to gloss over it, the debt is a real problem. The AFL have warned the Saints and the Saints have done NOTHING about it as it continues to increase. While a bunch of clubs have run ‘debt demolition’ campaigns St Kilda does nothing but put their hand out for ever bigger ‘AFL Distribution’ payments.
In 2017 (haven’t seen figures for 2018 yet) St Kilda ranked second last – ahead of only Gold Coast in sponsorship dollars. They are the only Melbourne club in the bottom five! St Kilda received $20,602,885 in AFL distributions – over $4 million more than the next highest Melbourne club (only the two expansion clubs and Brisbane received more – and those are understandable!).

For every player you mentioned as a positive for St Kilda they all had qualifications – if this or if that. It’s wishful thinking. Until and unless McCartin gets a run at it and finds form and manages to do it for more than a couple games he is a draft bust – like it or not. Billings could be a decent player but there is no guarantee he will be a great mid. Plenty of forwards have been turned into mids with limited success. The rest like Savage and Logan are just jobbers. All clubs have them and need them but they won’t win you games, won’t get people to buy memberships and aren’t what will get you relevant.

I don’t have an issue with the Saints going after Hanneberry. It is a risk but the Saints need to take risks. The issue is giving a player that looks worn down and used up a five year contract. A two year deal with an option would have been sensible. Five years reeks of people (recruiters, CEO, Coach, etc) desperately trying to save their jobs and not caring what the future holds.

The other issue is St Kilda held on to the worst coach in the league simply because they are too poor to pay him out. They are wasting yet another year.

ST KILDA has outlined plans to win its second premiership before 2020 as part of a long-range strategic outlook that includes increasing membership, reducing debt and creating an “admired culture”.

This is from 2014:

The Saints unveiled their “strategic framework” for 2014-2018 to the club’s members and key stakeholders at their season launch on Thursday night.

The vision is to ensure the club is “admired as a competition leader in recruiting, player development and coaching” by 2018.

The plan is to deliver Grand Final success before 2020 – which will be the Saints’ second flag after their sole 1966 triumph – and ensure the club is in the top four by 2018.

Failed on every single point. Saints are as far – if not further – from winning a flag than they were when this five year plan started.

St Kilda are not in the worst position in the AFL. Here's why

WOW! A player being interviewed talks about themselves. Shock, horror.

Seriously the point of interviewing players is to hear from them and about them.

Pull your head in, you are seriously reaching – even for you.

Gary Ablett reveals position change for 2019

I don’t see how you can have any. If games are meaningless how can you get joy out of it? You can’t. It is not possible. You have to have good and bad or you are just faking it.

The funny side of failure

You can’t have it both ways. You can’t ‘be over’ losing in 5 seconds and celebrate winning for weeks or months. Sure, no one should have the black dog visit because of a loss but the highs can only be as good as the lows are bad. If losses mean nothing than conversely winning means nothing either. If that is true you are not actually a fan of the game, I’d suggest finding something that actually gives you some enjoyment.

The funny side of failure

Cats are going to be without Nina Morrison for the season after an ACL at training today. Massive hole to fill 🙁

2019 AFL Women's season: Round 2 preview

Pox attitude.

If you believe that ‘losing doesn’t matter’ than you also must believe the inverse is true – winning doesn’t matter.

The next time your teams wins don’t brag, don’t be happy, don’t feel good just shrug your shoulders and say it doesn’t matter. Winning a flag should bring with it no joy because anything that happens on a sporting ground simply doesn’t matter.

I don’t want players that don’t care if they win or lose. I want players who do care and are bothered by losing. I want players who won’t accept losing and will give everything they have to try to prevent it next time.

Just because some players are having beers a few days later doesn’t mean they don’t care – ever heard the expression ‘drowning their sorrows’?

Matty Scarlett HATED doing media, so he made a deal with Bomber Thompson that he’d do media every time the club lost but only if he never had to do it when the club won. He helped ensure the club didn’t lose very often his last few years.

The worst part of clubs undergoing these ‘5 year rebuild plans’ is its basically teaching players its OK to lose, that winning doesn’t matter the next couple of years. Its why clubs at the bottom stay there for so long. Bad culture is synonymous with accepting losing.

The funny side of failure

Very accurate assessment of the ‘Aints. One thing you left out is they seem to be excessively risk adverse when drafting. For example, in 2017 the ‘Aints had picks 7 and 8. They could have packaged those picks and went after one of the players projected to be stars. Instead they picked Clark and Coffield. That’s not to say either one won’t be decent players but they were ‘safe’ picks that lack the flash and turnstile turning qualities that the ‘Aints are sorely lacking.

Why St Kilda are in the worst position of any team in the league

You thought the Tigers had last years flag in the bag.

Richmond 2019 season preview, best 22 and predicted finish

How is it any different than a player getting injured at training? Stuff happens

AFLX draft results: who got picked from your club

What the ____ is a ‘works cup’?

More respect is needed for AFLW

More like the other sports are insecure. You’re the one here code warring.

More respect is needed for AFLW

How much did they charge to attend the first 10 years of the men’s game?

Cats conquer Collingwood in thrilling AFLW season-opener

9 goals in 160 mins … so the equal of any Carlton side of the last 5 years or so?

On a more serious note, 160 minutes broken into 20 minute chunks is still different to the mens played in larger chunks.

Cats conquer Collingwood in thrilling AFLW season-opener

This little tidbit I also found noteworthy:

“Two years ago, before the first AFLW season, female participation in AFL Barwon sat at 59 players. It has since ballooned to more than 1600.

In 2018, local ground allocations were stretched with the demand. “

Cats conquer Collingwood in thrilling AFLW season-opener

Stop trying to treat women like delicate flowers. It is a full contact sport. They know it and accept it, it is time you do the same.

The real issues are:

1. Lack of lifetime opportunities and support. This is clearly changing and the fruits of this change are just barely being seen today. In 5-10 years it will be fully seen when girls who dreamt of playing from a young age were supporter and provided the opportunities to play consistently their entire lives.
2. Size 4 ball. Size 4.5 should be used as was the norm for women in the few leagues that existed prior to AFLW.
3. 20 minute quarters. How often do we see a lot of scoring in AFL in so called ‘red time’? Scores in AFLW are always going to be low without red time.
4. 16 on the ground. The loss of the 2 wingers has clearly not had the theoretical effect of opening the ground up. The reality is we have the same pile of mids and rucks contesting a ball as in the men’s game but the women do not have any players sitting outside the pack waiting for a handball receive (the wingers who have been eliminated). Just like reducing the interchange cap reality doesn’t match the theorised effect.

Cats conquer Collingwood in thrilling AFLW season-opener