The Australian Cup is the autumn equivalent of the Cox Plate (or at least was, until the $4 million Queen Elizabeth came along).
Australian Cup
1. Fiorente
Fiorente has never run anything less than a slashing race since arriving in Australia, and will confirm superstar status if he can take this out as the short-priced favourite.
His two 2000m runs in Australia, a fourth in the Turnbull and third in the Cox Plate, could easily have been victories, as he was unlucky in both.
He is the deserved favourite and possibly the best horse in the country.
2. Green Moon
Green Moon hasn’t won a race since his 2012 Melbourne Cup victory, and hasn’t really looked like it to be truthful, despite running some nice races in that time.
He was only a length inferior to Fiorente first up in the St George, and grows another leg at Flemington, so he could be some sort of presence if he can show his best acceleration and has things go his way.
3. Mourayan
Possibly as old as the rest of the horses in the race combined, Mourayan returned with a massive first-up run in the St George, finding the line better than any horse outside the winner to be just pipped into second place, and at $151 if you don’t mind.
Can he reproduce something similar here? His second-up record suggests he’ll improve, and he has run second in a Mackinnon at this track and distance.
4. Foreteller
Foreteller keeps on fronting up and running his decent races, looking good in the Orr upon resumption and following it up with a solid effort in the St George.
2000m is his right distance, and he’ll be charging late but may run out of time and space to beat them all.
5. Star Rolling
Star Rolling is the fresh horse on the weight-for-age middle-distance scene, and acquitted himself well in his first attempt, making Fiorente pull out all stops to beat him last start.
This is another step up, and he’ll likely be tracking Shamus Award in the run, which should prove too tough a task in itself, let alone accounting for all of the older horses.
6. Voleuse de Coeurs
Something of the mystery runner in the field, certainly to Australian punters, Voleuse de Coeurs has only been seen once in this country – running an even 10th in last year’s Melbourne Cup.
She is an overseas Group 1 winner at a staying trip, carrying 61kgs while doing it, so will be bringing her share of class to the race.
7. Let’s Make Adeal
Let’s Make Adeal has shown ability at lower levels than this, without being able to secure victory in the process. That won’t be changing here.
8. Shamus Award
No longer just the maiden that won the Cox Plate, Shamus Award is proving himself a Group 1 specialist, which is good, because that’s where the rest of his career will be spent.
A brilliant ride and win last week saw him dominate the high-class Australian Guineas field, which has in turn set up a mouth-watering clash with Fiorente.
He’ll likely lead them along again and challenge all others to defy him.
9. Thunder Fantasy
The best winning chance in the race outside the two favourites has to be Thunder Fantasy, and he’s the one to expose any chinks in the armour of Shamus Award and Fiorente.
His credentials are becoming sounder by the race, and with Group 1 thirds behind Polanski over the staying trip and Shamus Award at the mile, his versatility is unquestioned.
There’s every chance he’ll be stronger at the end of 2000m than Shamus Award, and will have the cosiest run of any horse in the race.
Fiorente may well have to get past a three-year-old to win this thing, just not the one everyone expects.
Last year’s Cox Plate winner will be up front, and the Melbourne Cup winner will be chasing him down.
Also in the mix is a three-year-old Derby and Guineas place-getter who may just spoil the fight. Hopefully we get a clash for the ages.
Selections: 1. Thunder Fantasy 2. Fiorente 3. Shamus Award 4. Foreteller
With two huge races at Flemington, all eyes will deservedly be there, but Warwick Farm is also playing host to Group 1 racing, in the form of the Chipping Norton Stakes.
The return of It’s a Dundeel is the story of the race, followed close behind by Boban and the question marks attached to his first two runs this campaign.
We might see something special from It’s a Dundeel tomorrow, laying down the gauntlet to the big names in the Australian Cup running 20 minutes later. I hope we do.
Hawkspur is also approaching a D-Day of his own, having been plain in the Orr first-up, albeit with excuses. Stablemate Moriarty has the feel of a horse that will win a big race soon, probably when least expected. What a run behind Appearance last time.
Monton is the rock-hard, fit, track-and-distance specialist, carrying big weights in far lower classes and picking up several wins along the way.
Glencadem Gold mixes between good and awful, and Prince Cheri is the new stayer on the Sydney Cup path. Both will be looking for a nice clean-out run before tackling longer trips.
Selections: 1. It’s a Dundeel 2. Moriarty 3. Monton 4. Boban
Al
Guest
Have a good look at the replay of today's Chipping Norton Stakes. Boban, reunited with Glyn Schofield, was supreme over IADD. No doubt the second horse will improve off the run, but Boban is all class and guts!! I doubt IADD will be able to turn the tables on Boban up to 2000m now that Boban has his mojo back!! And Fiorente will use him to pick his teeth at distances beyond! Alas…., the future doesn't look to rosy for the latest "Johnny Come Lately" of Australian racing!!! ALSO…, if Waller/Schofield had Pierro from day One, he would have retired undefeated AND a Cox Plate winner.., but that's just my opinion!!
Luke Andrews
Guest
It's interesting that you say Fiorente is a 2400m+ horse, as outside the Melbourne Cup, he has never raced beyond 2040m in this country. If you take out the massive impression his 2MC runs have made; I would still have him as at least equal, and more likely still favourite. SA needs to run better today than he did in the CP to be winning today. There are a number of things that point to Fiorente, the 5kg weight turn around being the most obvious. Added to this, he was ridden upside down in the CP, he is much more suited to Flemington and he is being trained for this distance this time in. After everything that went wrong in the CP he was only beaten a length. Second up last time in he won the Feehan over a mile at the valley. He looks much more suited in this race. I can also see him racing in midfield rather than the tail so he won't have to pick up the entire field. His odds are short, but he deserves to be favourite. I also think the jury is still out on these 3yr olds. If Moment of Change doesn't run up to expectations in the Newmarket then their Autumn WFA performances look very average. The Cox Plate is the only WFA Grp1 won by the 3r olds so far this season, they need to step up to considered a top crop.
Luke Andrews
Guest
I think it is the day Boban has to stand up. The 1600m definitely helps as he is now being trained towards a 2000m grand-final unlike the spring where they got him up and going and was ready for the Epsom, and then held form from there. But I think Schofield is the key. I think Boban is a horse with some quirks and he needs to compose himself in the run and then come at them late. It didn't look like he really got on with Nash and was not mentally in for the kill at his first two runs in. If he is as genuine today as he looked for Schofield in the spring then he should be right in the finish.
Luke Andrews
Guest
The Lloyd Williams pair are going forward, with Mourayan possibly looking for the lead. I don't know if they win but they can hold the key to the race. They are both tough resolute staying types and you would imagine they will want to make sure it is a stamina test rather than a dash up the straight. On Mourayan, if it were any other horse who turned in his first up run, and had as good a record as his he would half his quote. You can add him to your list of horses with a stigma attached. With him looking to roll forward and be the horse to put the pressure on Shamus Award, I see him as definitely value for the exotics, I don't think he will win though. Hopefully he can keep up his form and put in a good defense of the Sydney Cup this campaign.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Hi Titch, I think he'll probably get a comfortable lead. And if he does, he's going to be hard to beat again.
titch
Guest
we all know Shamus will lead but can anyone see a horse who will take him on? or do you think he'll be allowed to bowl along?
Bondy
Guest
I'm just wondering with Shamus he was equal favourite with Eurozone and Hucklebuck last week does that unsettle some with the way the other two performed. Look out for Hawkspur second up too at odds $8 he may not be a stayer..
Drew H
Guest
Fast pick - Foreteller. (perhaps take it off the radar if it doesn't fire at all tomorrow)
Justin Cinque
Expert
Great comment Andrew! Made a strong case for each runner you've mentioned there!
andrew
Guest
thermal current great value $9, only priced that way because of the weight, but race is full of fillies, so factor in 2kg allowance, he is well weighted. only career misses have been in G1 races when midfield to zourstar. gave NLTM weight last start and ran as well as you could expect. star fashion is overs too at $13. easy kill first up. not much between it and solicit in the spring. the discrepancy in market price between these two is wrong. bonaria can carry the weight and win. awful first up and second stats, but made a lie of them with some career best runs. gets to pet trip and pet track. she can sprint well off a fast or slow tempo. sertorious is too honest to not back. never runs bad race. every time bar is raised, he steps up. box seats in the run and simply too reliable and consistent to not back. rhythm to spare should be suited by likely strong tempo in the last and can use his sharp turn of foot of good speed with light weight.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Your last line is a good point, but I can understand them keeping him safe. It's a watch race for me.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
Yeah, he wouldn't be the first. I actually thought he was well in at the weights at WFA last start and he still didn't really fire a shot. Maybe 1600m? Maybe Schofield? Unfortunately, the bookies seem to be keeping him pretty safe, so you're not even getting value for risking that he'll improve tomorrow.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Yep, ok, fair enough. Of the middle-distance horses the big four (it should be four) right now are It's A Dundeel, Fiorente, Shamus Award and Happy Trails. HT is out injured at the moment but there's not a lot between the other three I reckon. It's A Dundeel probably the best of them.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I'm including Fiorente and Shamus Award in that category, not counting the likes of Zoustar over the sprint trip. Excellent summation of Fiorente. I think we're in a period where a lot of favourites start unders in big races, I'm not sure if it's a hangover effect of Black Caviar or not. Once momentum starts gathering for a horse, it just keeps going and they shorten and shorten.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Schofield might be the key. The Boban of last October and November is surely a WFA horse, but is he going to find that level again? If he disappoints in the Chipping Norton (and anything outside a placing will be categorized as that), he might just have not come up.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Saying Fiorente doesn't have a killer punch is wrong. He has a great killer punch, a great turn of foot. His killer punch is a little bit blunted at a shorter distance because he can't get into the race as well as he would over longer and therefore the punch isn't as devastating.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Interesting Will! I actually didn't back Monton two weeks ago. But I intended to - I missed the race. No surprises he killed them. I wonder why he's lining up tomorrow? Maybe Quinton figured that Monton is going great and it's not a great Group 1 away from IADD.
Justin Cinque
Expert
"It would be hard to rank his runs from best to worst in this country, because all have had elements of the outstanding." Yes, but the clear standout is the Melbourne Cup. He was dominant. And the second best? Probably the 2012 Melbourne Cup. He's a great horse. He'll run a great race but he's beatable at a middle distance. He just doesn't have a killer punch - either he gets too far back and can only win in the last few bounds or he isn't quite fast enough. It's a harsh look at his game but he's $2.3 in a premium G1 WFA race - that means he's highly, highly rated. Only the best get that sort of treatment. I'd love to ride against Fiorente over these distances because you know that if you can manage to stitch up Oli, the horse isn't quick enough over the trip to beat you! With you about Thunder Fantasy! And I can definitely buy into your IADD point - btw who are the other big two?
Cameron Rose
Expert
You're certainly very strong about Fiorente being at his best over 2400m plus, but he's proven himself to be quite versatile over shorter trips, either just getting there in time, or being unlucky in the run. It would be hard to rank his runs from best to worst in this country, because all have had elements of the outstanding. The more I think about Thunder Fantasy, the keener I get. The Queen Elizabeth is only six weeks away, so I'm expecting It's a Dundeel to be forward enough to win. He's second-up record is sterling, no doubt about it, but this is the first time he's resuming over a mile, and he is unbeaten over the 1600-1800m range. I won't be betting, but I'd love him to stamp his authority all over the race, and confirm his place as one of the big three.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
Bumped into Ron Quinton in the pub a few weeks ago and he was telling us that Monton was going as well as ever (and I backed him under the big weight at Randwick last start as a result!). But he indicated that he would be keeping him away from the top level. Maybe a change of heart? Maybe the owners got in his ear?