The recent friendly against Ecuador was hard to gauge. Were Australia really that good in the first half or were Ecuador simply asleep?
Looking at the second half, its hard to argue against the latter. However, during the first half Australia played as well as Mark Bosnich had seen the Socceroos play in “a very long time”, and really did look like potential world beaters. Or at least as if they might put up a good fight in the 2014 World Cup.
Whatever the answer, we can draw from the evening in London a few names who have absolutely, barring injury (touch wood), not just booked their seat on the flight to Brazil, but their spot in the starting XI.
Tim Cahill
Many were predicting that Tim Cahill’s days of starting for the Socceroos were behind him, and that he would assume a “super-sub” role in Brazil. Wrong.
A lofted ball in the general area of Tim Cahill is without a doubt Australia’s best chance of scoring at this upcoming World Cup.
It does not even have to be Timmy who scores, as shown by the fact that it was he who won the penalty.
Possibly Australia’s best ever international footballer, Cahill has now overtaken Damien Mori as Australia’s leading scorer. The honour couldn’t have gone to a better representative.
Mat Ryan
From a purely selfish point of view, the night couldn’t have gone any better for Ryan.
The only one of the three goalkeepers in the squad who is playing regular football (at Club Brugge in Belgium), Ryan kept a first-half clean sheet, before watching Mitch Langerak and Brad Jones ship in four between them.
Considered to be Ryan’s greatest challenger, Langerak also had a moment of madness where he managed to not only get himself sent off, but perform a somersault on the strength of how hard he swung his leg into his opponent’s knee.
Even if we look beyond this match to determine who gets a boarding pass, Club Brugge is sitting clear second in the Belgian Pro League and has conceded the second-fewest goals.
Mile Jedinak
A certainty for Brazil and a near certainty to be wearing the captain’s armband, Jedinak marked his first game as captain by cooling slotting home a penalty.
Jedinak is the most defensive of Australia’s midfielders and is very effective at protecting a suspect back four. Coming up against Spain, the Netherlands and an in-form Chile, he will have his work cut out for him. However, captaining the South London side of Crystal Palace in a near-identical role will help Jedinak no end.
Palace was odds-on favourite to be relegated at the start of the year. They now sit a couple of points clear of the drop zone, and Jedinak has been an instrumental part of their season.
The Eagles’ skipper is one of only three outfield players to play every single minute of every game their team has played. His bank of experience against some of the world’s best will be needed in Brazil.
Tommy Oar
Oar plays in the Netherlands for FC Utrecht, and season 2013-14 has been something of a breakout year for the left-sided player.
While he has scored only once and provided three assists, Oar has played in 25 of Utrecht’s 27 games and has been starting to get the consistency of playing time he needs.
However, it is not his club form that is the main criteria for Oar’s selection. On the international stage, Oar has impressed with his pace and trickery down the left, and his increasingly accurate crossing.
Ever since putting a ball on Archie Thompson’s head for a crucial goal against Iraq in the World Cup qualifying campaign, Oar has gone about establishing himself as a regular. His game against Ecuador was outstanding, leaving defenders all at sea as he delivered accurate crosses which were duly put away by Tim Cahill.
Oar shapes as a crucial piece of the puzzle if Australia have any hope in Brazil.
Mark Milligan
Jedinak’s partner in crime, Milligan has had another strong season at club level, skippering the inconsistent but seemingly top-four-bound Melbourne Victory. Generally when he hasn’t played, Melbourne have been dominated.
Milligan broke into the Socceroos starting XI playing alongside Marc Bresciano and won plaudits for his performances as the more defensive of the two midfielders.
Now partnering Jedinak, Milligan is the more advanced, and the man the team look to when playing forward. Milligan’s body position when receiving a pass is nearly always positive, and he is the link man between attack and defence. It would be a brave soul who bet against a combination of Milligan and Jedinak in midfield in the Socceroos’ opening game of the World Cup.
Tom Rogic
The next big thing. That’s the title Rogic has had to cope with from nearly all Australians who crave to see Australians once more doing well in Europe’s big leagues.
Rogic’s move to Celtic after a brief A-League career seemed destined for success after his first game in which he was hailed as best on the park. However, he has been consistently overlooked.
In this writer’s opinion, Celtic coach Neil Lennon has acted disgracefully both in his conduct with the media and his list management. Despite being knocked out of the Champions League and inevitably leading the Scottish Premiership, Lennon looked to the winter transfer window to bring in players rather than give opportunities to those such as Rogic.
But enough of Lennon. Rogic was loaned to Melbourne Victory where he has shown his capabilities and will only get better as he gets used to Kevin Muscat’s unusual game plan.
It is this move which seems to have made Rogic starting in Brazil a certainty, as everyone can see from his limited international matches Rogic is the most exciting player Australia have. His skill on the ball and his ability to glide past defenders gives Rogic the look of a world-class footballer in the making.
Let’s hope Brazil is the stage on which we see Rogic announce himself.
Aside from the players above, it is very hard to predict who else will be starting in Brazil. Ivan Franjic is probably the odds-on favourite to start at right back, however he suffers in that he does not regularly play there. He also looked decidedly pressured in the second half against Ecuador.
Curtis Good (now unfortunately injured for six weeks) and Matthew Spiranovic looked more composed as a combination than we have seen in a while, however must still prove that they are up to playing in a World Cup, by strong performances for the rest of their club seasons and in the World Cup lead-up games.
Matthew Leckie is also a strong chance to be starting, and is in good club form. A strong finish to the season for his German side FSV Frankfurt and more of the same impressive showings from the Socceroos will see him start. Jason Davidson is yet to convince although he may benefit from the lack of another option.
Ange Postecoglou’s job in selecting a starting XI that is competitive in Brazil is difficult, although he will no doubt have learnt from Pim Verbeek’s disastrous decision to change tactics for the very first match of the 2010 World Cup.
It is because of this that we can be reasonably confident Ange will play a 4-2-3-1 of sorts, and also why we can even have a pretty good idea who will start.
However, a lot can change in football in the 90-odd days before the World Cup begins.
Ben
Guest
Ryan Franjic - Good - Spira - Davidson Millsy - Jedi Leckie - Rogic - Oar Cahill Dear God, slot in Kruse into that RW spot and have Leckie as a super sub and that is a rock solid side
Anthony Karakai
Roar Rookie
I agree. Although the Ecuador loss was embarrassing, we displayed a newfound confidence in front of goal that is certainly promising. It's hard to see us going past the first round, but I'll be there for the Spain match in Curitiba hoping for a miracle!
Anthony Karakai
Roar Rookie
I agree Danno. I'm hoping we discover the next genuine Aussie superstar in Brazil!
Anthony Karakai
Roar Rookie
It's bad news. I hope a miracle occurs and he can recover!
Arto
Guest
@ bill boomer: The point is that he scores a lot of goals with his feet - not to list all of them for your benefit. If you don't believe me, then that's ok - we can have a difference of opinion - just don't turn the discussion into a slanging match via sarcasm. It's a cheap and not altogether intelligent way of arguing a point and is most likely to keep the people you're trying to convince off your side (no pun intended). Ps. You may want to note that I haven't asked you to list all the examples of Cahill scoring with his head to try to prove your point! :-)
danno
Guest
You are probably right that there's no better option than rogic in terms of technical ability. I think the team most likely to succeed has cahill as CAM and Kennedy as striker. Cahill might not be a play maker but his style of football is the most likely to get a result. However if ange wants to ensure Australia plays attractive football and also wants to use the world cup as a lead up to the asian cup then he should play rogic. I also believe that rogic and bresch could be directly interchangeable, both have excellent technical ability and both are somewhat lacking physically (obviously on opposite ends of the spectrum). One more point; I don't rate milligan that highly, other players should get a chance there.
bill boomer
Guest
One example from 8 years ago. I'm convinced
fadida
Guest
There is noi way they'll be two up front. Don't expect "long balls" either.
Arto
Guest
@ Da' Yes, I think Rogic could also have a good impact off the bench, but I'm worried by that point (say after 60mins, for example) the game will already be well & truly lost as I don't know who has as much ability to hold onto the ball (and/or draw fouls - thus, slowing the tempo of the game down) as Rogic... Any suggestions? Possibly Vidosic, but I don't think he's strong enough on the ball (@ WC level)...
Da`
Roar Rookie
@ Arto . Very insightful. Particularly with the lack of recent match fitness due to his ban, I think a deep DM playmaker role alongside Jedinak would be very well suited for Bresc, particularly in Ange's system. I agree Kennedy would do well off the bench, but suspect Rogic might be better used off the bench as well.
Arto
Guest
@ Bogga: Rogic won't get better if managers keep treating him like an 'impact player' or 'super-sub', so in my mind they need to take a punt on him and give him confidence from their trust in his abilities... I agree with you regarding the lack of a world-class FWD, but I think playing 2 up front will reduce our effectiveness as we will struggle to get the ball upfield often enough to use those 2 - thus, I'd have Cahill up top due to his additional mobility over Kennedy and aerial ability over Leckie. If we have a potential 5-man midfield with the ability to run at pace at the opposition back-4, we might be able to retain posession for long enough to keep the games a contest and as you mention, in the last 15mins the games will open up and it might come down to fitness over the 90mins & who has enough in the tank to make the final push forward. Psotecoglu has already publicly highlighted his preference for super fit players, so I assume he's going to want to run at tiring defences in the last quarter of the game to maybe save a bad situation or even nick a good result. I can conceivably see us pinching either 2 draws or possibly even a win against the Netherlands (or a draw against Spain) if things really go our way.... It's fun to be an optimist!! ;-)
Arto
Guest
@ Tom Logan: I also believe Rogic needs to move from Celtic - he's obviously down the pecking order now after the Jan transfer window activity Celtic had, and he wasn't getting much game-time there before that either. He needs to find a club that will give him 90mins each week and preferably in a league which is more technical than physical (ie: not the English Championship). Serie A is probably a bit too big a step up just now, IMO, so I'd recommend first either joining Matty Ryan in Belgium or going to the Netherlands like a few of our other Aussies... I'm sure Taggart will be seriously considered given his season so far - haven't seen so much of him myself, and so I'm not a huge fan yet, but good luck to him if he's picked...
Arto
Guest
@ Ben of Phnom Penh: Very wise move! I can't resist though, so here's my WC starting XI (1-4-2-3-1): ;-) GK: Ryan DEF: Wilkshere, Spiranovic, Ognenovski, Davidson DMID: Jedinak, Bresciano AMID: Leckie, Rogic, Oar FWD: Cahill Subs (5): Galekovic (GK), Franjic, Milligan, Vidosic, Kennedy It's possibly too attacking, but I can't see us doing much better with a more defensive-oriented selection, so we may as well go down fighting for a glorious upset, than desperately clawing away wave after wave of attacks... :-)
Arto
Guest
@ BES: I like your point about the experience the Roar players have playing together - that could be a good argument as well as the fact that they know Postecoglu's philosophy from before. However, I'm sceptical as to Franjic's defensive capabilities - he looked out-of-depth against Ecuador in the 2nd half as Montero (Ecuador #7) gave him a torrid time out wide and I think Vidal, Sanchez, Navas, Silva, Sneijder, etc. will be even harder to handle... Still, your point is a very good one and so I think it would be worth the gamble at least once... :-)
Arto
Guest
@ AGO74 & fadida: I will also declare my SFC bias (although maybe you guys knew that already?!), but I think the Og-Monster would be a good choice too for exactly the reasons AGO74 suggests. And to counter your point about Taggart embarrasing him a couple of weeks ago, I'd suggest 2 mitigating factors: a) it was his 1st game for SFC, and b) Petkovic had a poor game by his standards so that compounded the difficulty for Sasa. If you look at the 3 games since that match, Og-Monster has been brilliant - particularly his work trying to keep his teammates heads' cool during the Derby last week. I do agree though, it would be something of a gamble to play him as he would struggle with the pace of Chile & Spain (although Spain have surprisingly chosen to have their WC base in the mountains where it'll be close to 0'C at night, so maybe they too will feel the effects of the heat & humidity and therefore not be as potently fast as could be expected in Europe?!). Plus, it will probably be a gamble whoever we play at CB as none of our options are exactly 'world-class' so we'll need to be on top of our game their regardless...
Arto
Guest
@ Sam Clark: I agree about Milligan - IMO, his distribution is not good enough for a World Cup as a MID. He would be a good option as CB, although maybe his positioning could be a problem given he hasn't played so much there recently... I would start Rogic, although Vidosic is a better alternative if we are aiming to transition very quickly as his distribution & link-up play is better than Rogic's. Whilst Holman has done his best and helped Aus throughout his Int. career, I really hope Postecoglu has drawn a line through his name as we need to move on from the type of play he is best at (a type of all-action, run-for-your-life football that relies more on athelticism than technique). I think Postecoglu would be better choosing a Bozanic or Sarota as the back-up to get NT experience before the Asian Cup... @ BES: As I commented above, I'd play both Bresciano & Rogic from the start, with Bresciano in the deeper role alongside Jedinakl given his higher workrate, better distribution and arguably better defensive abilities of the 2. I think Milligan didn't have a good game against Ecuador, but I would definitely take him to Brazil as he's got experience at this level & has performed well for Aus before - just need to watch out for picking up unnecessary cards (both yellow & red!)...
Arto
Guest
@ James Anderson: Not sure what you mean by unattractive style - I thought we looked excellent in the 1st half against Ecuador (and not simply because Ecuador were awful!) as we used our strengths well: running down the flanks at pace, feeding Rogic in space, getting balls in behind the Ecuadorian back-4... Against all of our opponents in Brazil, I see those moves as being our best chance of scoring and maybe pinching a result, as all 3 are better going forward than defending (Spain probably has the best central defensive triangle out of all the teams, so that will be the hardest game to create chances in)...
Arto
Guest
@ Freddy from Bondi: I would play Bresciano as one of the 2 DMs in a 4-2-3-1 formation alongside Jedinak, with Rogic as the CAM & Cahill as the FWD. Cahill offers more than Kennedy, IMO, so I'd use Kennedy off the bench if we change to a more direct style of play (most likely when chasing the game).
Arto
Guest
@ danno: I agree that Rogic seems to go missing in matches and can also come across as working less hard than his teammates, but the alternatives are not exactly obvious, IMO. Who do you suggest? I'm not a fan of hoping we can hold out against Chile, Netherlands & Spain for say 60mins before injecting Rogic into the game against a tired opposition (despite the physically challenging conditions all teams in the group will face), as I can't see us defending well enough for that to be our most sucessful gameplan. I'd much rather we take the game to our opponents (something Postecoglu tends to do anyway) and Rogic is actually quite good at holding onto the ball, so (IMO) that will allow our midfield & defence to move upfield a bit more than the alternative options for CAM would provide... The other point I'd make is he's only going to get better at playing 90mins & staying more involved in play if he starts, so he's in my starting XI for both Brazil & the Asian Cup...
Arto
Guest
@ bill boomer: Actually, I think you'll find Cahill has scored a fair amount of his goals with his feet - it's just that for a player his size, he's unusually good at scoring with his head, so he gets more credit for that than the goals he scores with his feet (Kaiserslauten 2006, for example).