While everyone wants their team to win the flag, making the eight is generally the accepted cut-off level for calling a season successful. But the majority of teams don’t make the eight.
After picking the top four and rounding out the eight, here are the teams I can’t see playing finals footy this September.
9. Essendon
The big unknown. Just how much effect did the investigation of last year have? Did it help them or hurt them?
Certainly their emotion-charged first round win over Adelaide at Subiaco seemed to be in part inspired by the pressure on the team and particularly its captain Jobe Watson and coach James Hird.
But then again it seemed to affect the bombers awfully in the last month of footy; it was only in the last month that the Dons fell out of the top four before being booted out of the top eight.
Yet how good is this Essendon team really?
Watson is a star, Brendon Goddard is a gun and Dyson Heppell could be anything.
Yet of their other hopes, Michael Hurley is injury-prone, Terry Daniher is yet to prove himself the messiah and Jake Carlisle improved enormously, yet still provides Dons’ supporters with moments of anguish.
Much like Richmond, Essendon will need to improve again this season to show last season’s run wasn’t a fluke.
In a short, much will need to go right for the bombers to launch a September assault, almost as much as went wrong off the field last year.
10. Carlton
Carlton will get the Blues this season, or at least they will unless they can sort out their key positions.
Jarrad Waite is unfortunately too injury-prone to be relied upon, and Levi Casboult and Same Rowe show potential but, again, cannot be relied upon.
Even Michael Jamieson looks as though he may be using the same pair of shoulders as Chris Judd.
A lot rests therefore on Lachie Henderson. The key position issues suffered by Carlton are a pity for their supporters, as the rest of their team is potentially top four standard.
Can Mick Malthouse get all the Blues’ talent to click? Can he get his team, like Ken Hinkley at Port Adelaide, peforming as the sum of its parts?
It will be a challenge, and this year the Blues may have to rely upon more than one team being kicked out of the finals to play in September.
11. Port Adelaide
Who would have thought the Power would be leading the second-placed team of 2013 at halftime in Round 2 of the finals?
A phenomenal season from Port Adelaide that was built on the back not of exceptional players, but self-belief.
The Power were simply tremendous at willing themselves back into contests, and recorded some famous wins – None better, of course, than the elimination win over Collingwood.
However, the season after a great rise can often be the hardest. To avoid ‘second year blues’, the Power will need to continue to focus on their strengths and their fearless gameplan.
Chad Wingard and Travis Boak are genuine A-graders, and Justin Westhoff, Ollie Wines, Hamish Hartlett and Brad Ebert will aim to make that transition this season.
Jared Polec looks a bargain pick up, while Jay Schulz and Kane Cornes just keep on keeping on.
The Power can be stretched down back however, and will need big seasons from Alipate Carlile and Jackson Trengove to remain in the September hunt.
12. Gold Coast
Gary Ablett is the best player in the competition and was given his just rewards last season with a second Brownlow medal.
Jaeger O’Meara shocked no one by playing like a superstar. Cambell Brown shocked no one by punching a teammate in the face.
The Suns have such a disparity between the most talented and least talented players who make their best 22, that this season, despite greater expectation, may mirror last year.
A Suns player may win the Brownlow, a Suns player may win the Rising Star (Jack Martin), but the Suns may win not all that much else.
Expect improvement from David Swallow. Hopefully Rory Thompson can stay fit and prove himself as one of the best tall defernders in the game, and there should be more goals out of Charlie Dixon, Tom Lynch and Sam Day.
Harley Bennell should continue his rise to stardom while Gary Ablett cements himself as one of the all-time greats.
13. Adelaide
Perhaps a little bit harsh on Adelaide to name them 13th, however until Taylor Walker can get back into the game and the sort of form he is capable of, don’t expect all that much from the Crows.
While James Podsiadly is an adequate replacement, he is no Tex. Expect Adelaide to struggle for goals and to rely on one man more than any other club in the league.
This one man is of course Patrick Dangerfield.
Already a star of the competition and you get the sense that he could even get better, Dangerfield is probably the most popular tip for this year’s Brownlow Medal.
There is also young talent coming through, with both Matt and Brad Crouch showing promise, Sam Kerridge showed bits last season and Eddie Betts will add goals up forward.
Daniel Talia and Ben Rutten need big seasons but if Adelaide is going to September, it will be on the shoulders of Patrick Dangerfield and his big mate Tex.
14. Western Bulldogs
A great revival has fuelled the fires of hope at Whitten Oval over the summer. From a team many were calling uncompetitive at the start of the year, the Bulldogs certainly weren’t when it came to the back-end of the season.
Using Daniel Giansiracusa as a sub in role that may pave the way for other clubs employing their veterans similarly, the Bulldogs rode a wave of confidence.
One of the chief players in this revival was Ryan Griffen, now captain, and there was a welcome return for Adam Cooney.
Good mates Tom Liberatore and Mitch Wallis will become the heart of the team, and Jordan Roughead and Michael Talia will be given chances to improve their defensive abilities, as the Bulldogs start to bed down a solid back six.
Despite the recruitment of Stewart Crameri, there will still be issues in kicking a score, and expect opposition teams to do a lot of homework on how to beat the Doggies, who may find it difficult to continue their awesome late season form.
Although this year may be a bit of a reality check, it is now possible for Dogs’ fans to see the bright horizon that awaits their team.
Strummer Jones
Guest
Yes the old "editing issues". Where the hell is that editor? I always blame him; gambling debts, ATO filings with false and misleading information, dodgy passport photos. I saw one in Timber Creek once, or at least that's what I told my boss when I went missing for 2 weeks in the spring of 1979. Damn them.
Norfolk
Roar Rookie
Essendon have one of the best midfields in the competition. Is mental strength a supercoach stat?
PaulD
Guest
I think he's saying that some players are more important than others. You can't disagree that Dangerfield and Walker are the two most important players for Adelaide when fit. Perhaps not by much, but they are. Certainly if they were both out it will have an impact on Adelaide's performance. I should say, we should probably cut the author some slack, I lashed at him on his bottom 8 article as well. They're his first two articles. The only advice I'd offer to him though, is generally here, you're better off writing an article that goes in depth on one subject or team, rather than trying to do overview pieces. Generally with the latter you wind up repeating truisms like "Walker and Dangerfield are important players for Adelaide". Well, duh. I know that, you know that. Brief summaries on teams don't do much - I'd be astonished if anyone who followed AFL didn't already know everything you'd said in this article. We know who the key players are already, and what team's chances are riding on. Tell us something we don't know - write about personal experiences, bring your own perspective to writing on the footy. AFL.com has loads of journos who are paid to write much more detailed and in depth previews for teams, and they're going to be a lot better than you at it. What will set you apart is writing a unique product that you're not going to find on another website. And that's where you need to have a nice idea, or a personal view, and write about that instead. My two cents.
barneythecrab
Guest
Mate the Crows didnt have Walker from round 5 last year and finished 1 game out of the 8 and at 11th. Walker will be back by round 2 BTW easily. You also dont know much if you think the team relies upon 1 or 2 players.
Macca
Guest
"Well, Carlton have had a lot of practice at organising backups for Waite, I’d expect them to be pretty good at it by now." Very True!! In fact if I really wanted to amke mischief I could argue that all of Waites missed games mean he is actually in better shape than a normal 30 year forward because of less wear & tear,
PaulD
Guest
Well, Carlton have had a lot of practice at organising backups for Waite, I'd expect them to be pretty good at it by now. I don't pretend to know or care enough about Collingwood's squad to start speculating - Jesse White & Ben Reid? (Current fitness issues notwithstanding). Quentin Lynch...there are probably others. None come within cooee of Cloke though, some players just aren't replaceable. You make do with what you have and keep battling on
PaulD
Guest
"In fact if I really wanted to make mischief I could argue that all of Waites missed games mean he is actually in better shape than a normal 30 year forward because of less wear & tear" You should be selling cars Macca! Original condition full forward – only one careful owner, only used on Sundays. Spent a lot of time garaged due to suspension issues.
Macca
Guest
That's right PaulD - I mean if we were to assume Cloke would do his knee tonight who would have Collingwood anywhere near the 8? At least the blues have Casboult and Rowe as backups to Waite - who do the Pies have?
PaulD
Guest
Be wary of arguing with Macca, he will passionately defend Carlton till the tips of his fingers are bloody stumps grinding against the keyboard. To be fair, he does have a point too. Assuming that a player is certainty to get injured isn't a good premise to base your findings on. Far better to assume no-one is going to get injured, outline the most likely scenario, and then qualify your statement by saying that injuries could derail the campaign etc.
PaulD
Guest
I'd have Carlton finishing ahead of Essendon this year, without a doubt. The Bombers already had their "we don't give a damn what people think of us" gutsy reserves drained last year. This season is going to be more ASADA inflicted pain and it's going to ruin them. Bomber Thompson will do his best, but the club will go careening into a 11/12th place finish and thank god the season is done at the end of it.
Macca
Guest
Yes Watson Kreuzer and Casboult (although he isn't in the Blues best 22) are yest to convince but have White, Keefe, Brown and Grundy? And you could look at the midfields (in which Collingwood have an advantage on 2013 form but I think by the end of 2014 the lack of injury to Murphy and the progression of Gibbs and Bell might make things tigher than a lot think) the lack of a quality ruckman (which will be more important than ever this year with the interchange caps) means that an inferior midfield will still beat or match the Pies at clearances putting their backline under pressure. And no one is more likely to get injured than anyone else - past performance is no indication of future performance and you could argue the longer a player has gone without an injury the closer he is to having one.- and it seems to be trying to fit facts into a belief.
Lachie
Guest
Yeah it's a good point. I guess I look at the midfields of the teams and perhaps I overrate Collingwood's kids, but Watson, Kreuzer, Casboult etc. are still yet to convince and it's not fair but it's a truth Waite and Jamieson are more likely to get injured than others.
Macca
Guest
By Crameri who couldn't kick straight yo mean your leading goal kicker? And all other sides around Essendon improved over the summer (North got Dal Santo, Carlton got Thomas, Everitt and Cripps, Adelaide got Bett's and Podsiadly, Port got White & Polec etc) but Essendon at best statyed still and the loss of Hille and Gumbelton while in isolation isn't that great means that the loss of Bellchambers for the first month really hurts.
Macca
Guest
I find it interesting that Carlton get accused of being KPP's short because Jarrad Waite will get injured and Michael Jamison has dodgy shoulders (despite him playing every game in 2013) and Casboult and Rowe aren't up to but there is no mention of Matthew Watson (who will play CHB to allow Hendreson to go froward ) or Matthew Kreuzer (who will be the ruck/forward) nor swingman Everitt. If we assume that as all the players are currently fit (and in Waites case fitter than he has been in 6 years after completing a full pre-season) the Blues will have Henderson playing CHF, with Waite pushing high and Kreuzer playing deep with Everitt floating and even Menzel offering a marking option forward, while down back Jamison and Watson cover the key post with cover from Walker and Everitt. To me that seems to be plenty of option at both ends. Meanwhile the apparent certainties for the finals Collingwood have Keeffe, Brown (both of whom have had injury concerns) and Maxwell (who is well past his best) in defence which seems brittle to say the least and Cloke, Reid and White (who averages just over 1 goal per game) up forward which looks OK as long as Reid can stay forward and doesn't have to shore up the backline - have no concerns over their KP spots. Oh and the ruck combination of Grundy and White is very poor compared with Warnock and Kreuzer. I think some people are falling for perceptions rather than realities.
Norfolk
Roar Rookie
Essendon are a better side than ninth. They were challenging for first in round 17 last year and have not lost a lot of key players. Only Crameri really, who couldn't kick straight. They're a top four team and so are Richmond. I think Freo will finish 5th or 6th because they have a really tough draw. Hawks, Richmond, Sydney, Essendon, Freo, Port, North Melbourne, Carlton, Collingwood, GC, Adelaide.
Lachie
Guest
Apologies, there seems to be some editing issues. I know that Adelaide don't play at Subiaco and I know it should read Joe Daniher. Thanks for alerting me. I can't see where Tony Mondra is?
Tristan
Guest
Tony Mondra
Matt
Guest
Essendon played Adelaide at subiaco? Terry daniher? Seriously, not a good article.