With Ireland going into the final round of the 2014 Six Nations on top of the table with a plus-81 points differential, 49 points ahead of England, they know that a win against France should see them claim the trophy they haven’t held since 2009.
England’s equation is simple – they must beat Italy and beat them very well.
Amazingly, France are still also in the hunt but with a points differential of only plus-3, they are 29 points behind England so to win the title they must beat Ireland by a good margin and rely on Italy beating England.
The timing of the matches is also critical – England play first so if they beat Italy they’ll jump to the top of the table and set a target for Ireland and France to chase.
The outcome of the middle match on Saturday between Wales and Scotland will have no bearing on who wins the championship which will no doubt rankle Welsh fans.
Then France host Ireland in the final match. If England have beaten Italy earlier in the day, France will not only have to beat Ireland but beat them by a margin of more than 30 points. Realistically, French hopes will be extinguished if England win.
If Italy beat England then the winner of the championship will be the winner of the final match. If not, Ireland will know what margin they have to beat France by to see off England.
Any team that goes into a match chasing a win by a certain number of points can stumble by focussing too much on the score rather than just playing the match.
The best way England can apply this sort of pressure to Ireland is to beat Italy by a margin of more than 60. This would leave Ireland needing to beat France by 12 points or more.
Should England fail to beat Italy by more than 49 points then Ireland will know that a win by any margin is good enough. That would be a huge advantage for them.
Italy v England
With England needing a massive win over Italy, they will have to play a very attacking game so this could be a superb match to watch.
England were very good against Wales and with Ireland have shown they are the two best teams this year. How they must regret that last ten minutes in Paris against France in round one.
Italy were competitive against Ireland for most of the first half but then had no answers when Ireland went up several gears.
I expect England will be in top gear right from the start of this match so I can’t see Italy being able to stop them.
I’ve tipped against England in the first four rounds (not because I hate England as a few have claimed) but I’m going to tip them in this match.
I did receive an e-mail this week from an Englishman asking me to tip Ireland on the basis that I might jinx them so it won’t please him that I’ve tipped England this week.
Do I think England can win by more than 49 points? It’s possible but that is a huge margin at this level of rugby so it will be some performance if they do.
Wales v Scotland
Wales will not be happy that no matter the outcome of their final match of the tournament they are already out of contention.
Their performance in the loss against England was limp as was their earlier performance against Ireland.
Does that say they are a team in decline or that their game plan has become stale? You could make a good argument for answering yes to both of those questions.
I expect Wales will be looking to make a statement in this match to show the world they shouldn’t be written off just yet.
Despite people calling for Scotland’s involvement to be reviewed earlier in the tournament, they will finish above Italy again this year and should have beaten France in the last round.
However, those plucky performances can’t mask the fact that they are justifiably just hanging on to tenth place in the IRB rankings and lack depth.
I’m tipping Wales by more than 10 points.
France v Ireland
Is there any preview article written about a match involving France that doesn’t refer to not knowing which French team will turn up?
That question may be even more relevant this week. If England beat Italy by a good margin, say 20 points which is entirely feasible, France will know that they have to beat Ireland by 49 points or more. If England really turn it on against Italy that equation could look even worse for the French.
Even if France played brilliantly and Ireland poorly I couldn’t see that happening and realistically, no matter how positive the French may try to be, they would know that too. In those circumstances hope may be lost for the French before this match even commences and that would negatively impact their performance.
As I said earlier, Ireland will have the benefit of knowing what they must do in this match before they take the field. Will a win suffice or do they need more?
Even if England were to beat Italy by 60 points and set Ireland the task of beating France by more than 12 points, I think the Irish would still enter the match with confidence.
I’m sure Joe Schmidt and his coaching team will reinforce the need for the Irish players to focus on their own performances and their match rather than what England have done. But no matter how much you try to ignore the outside factors, you can’t and that creates pressure.
If England don’t beat Italy by more than 49 points the danger for Ireland is that they relax knowing a win will be enough. In those circumstances they would also know that they are firm favourites and that can create pressure as well.
Throw in the unpredictability of France, even if they don’t think they can win the tournament, and it will be a tricky match for Ireland.
I’m tipping Ireland to win and that any victory will be enough.
This tip is based on my view of the position both teams will find themselves in as they run on to the field but I admit I’m also hoping Brian O’Driscoll leaves the stage with a win and the trophy.
He’s the best centre I’ve ever seen play the game and one of the best players I’ve seen – he deserves to go out on a high.
cathal
Guest
they did so you must be blind :)
Birdy
Guest
One big difference is that the RC sides play each other at least twice a year (with a 3rd Bledisloe normally thrown in). I've seen comments from SH fans on here suggesting that at times it becomes a bit 'samey'. While the final SA-AB match last year was a great occasion and game, I'm not sure whether this was the exception or the rule. The fact that the 6N sides normally only play each other once per year adds a degree of 'occasion' to it even before all the history is taken into account.
Shop
Roar Guru
Are Ukraine and Russia seriously playing this weekend?
Worlds Biggest
Guest
If England were hosting you would give them a shout to rack up a big score. They still could in Italy but it will take a great performance. Italy at home are generally very tough to beat. England by 15-20 points. Wales to beat Scotland. Ireland have a dismal record in Paris. Whichever French team shows up will have there hands full against a team determined to send off the great BOD a winner. Ireland by 3 points.
ChrisT
Guest
Tane, not suggesting the call of 40+ is ridiculous, just that I don't like talk of it before the game. Call it a superstition. Interesting that while the Azzurri ship points, they rack some up too, at an average of 21 in the same period and an average points difference of just 21-26. Even catching them cold in a November International the Aussies only achieved a difference of 30 points and NZ only bettered that by 2 the year before. Do you foresee any possibility England could create the necessary daylight to seriously threaten Ireland's advantage there?
Coconut
Guest
I would generally agree with what you say ChrisT (with exception to your comment on the RC), however while your 'centuries of turbulent history' is quite a compelling argument for creating the 'passion and intrigue' behind the 6N, I would simply counter that by saying I seriously doubt there could be a more gripping or drama filled occasion than any time South Africa meets New Zealand. One only needs to casts one's mind back to the last time SA played NZ at Ellis Park, and many have said this was the most gripping, emotion charged game yet seen between these two (it was certainly the game of the year). Likewise, the intense Australia-NZ rivalry (in any sport) also provides a great backdrop whenever these two play - and I think the Aussies are definitely on the comeback trail, which will only add to the tension and drama there. So, in my opinion, in simple terms of rugby history and rugby rivalries, I doubt there is much that can better what we see, and have seen in previous tri-nations competitions, and in what we now know as the RC. Again, its my opinion, but I think there is more than enough in what I've said that can match anything the 6N 'serves up', as you put it. Cheers.
Buzzard
Guest
England 38 Italy 12 Wales 26 Scotland 15 France 19 Ireland 18 ( Ireland lead 18-0 with 10 mins to go) Ukraine 27 Russia 16
Dublin Dave
Guest
Where's your sense of Romance Tane? And remember: romance is just another word for Italian. Well, kinda. :-)
Gavin Melville
Roar Pro
Brave of you to to be doing predictions here, too, Scott. Picking "Home Team to Win" is beating you, going into the final round. Enjoyable analysis again throughout the comp, however.
goodNumber10
Guest
i'm not sure it's commonly held, but they would use it, not as an excuse, but a way to put a silver lining on their loss. I can't really explain how much the french hate us (the english), i've lived here 6-7 years and i've seen it first hand, it's pretty vitriolic
goodNumber10
Guest
England vs Italy could end up being a massacare, i hope not even as an England fan, but this is an England side with a lot fo confidence, who have put away some good teams by playing some decent rugby. Italy seem to have stuttered to a halt after their game against wales, they have been brave but dont' seem to have progressed since last season - I fear Brunel has his work cut out for them, the italian provincial sides are not developing and that is having a huge impact on the quality fo the natinoal team. all in all, england to smash Italy, but ireland to take it with a first win in 14 years in Paris (if the smog holds off)
Tane Mahuta
Guest
Far too much to ask. Italy will be creamed.
Mike
Guest
I agree. France being so predictable and all...
Dublin Dave
Guest
I just have a sneaking suspicion that Italy are waiting for England in the long grass this weekend. Since they beat Ireland last year, Italy have won against all other teams in the Six Nations except England. They really want to win this one. Last week they "rested" two of their best players Zanni and the magnificent Julius Caesar lookalike Sergio Parisse. Both will be back for Saturday and the atmosphere at the Stadio Olympico in Rome, a far cry from the quaint Stadio Flaminio where Italy played for their first decade in the 6N, will be intimidating. As Paul Newman's lawyer character in the film The Verdict says: "The courts don't exist to guarantee justice; they exist to give you a chance at justice" Similarly, sport doesn't exist to guarantee a belief in fairy tales or morality plays where virtue ultimately triumphs over vice. But it presents the opportunity for such happy accidents to happen. If justice is to be served, then either Ireland or England should win the Championship this year. They have been clearly the two best teams and either side would be worthy winners. However, Italy who have given so much to the Six Nations and endured such hardship, deserve a taste of victory this year. They have played well in all of their matches, and do not deserve to end with a whitewash. A victory for them over England would be a good day for sport. But it would leave open the chance for France to win the championship, simply by beating Ireland at home, something they have done with almost monotonous regularity over the past half century. My dad, an 81 year old who has been a rugby fan since childhood, has only heard news of an Irish victory in Paris four times during his allotted spell on this earth. A French victory over Ireland in Paris is no surprise. But France don't deserve to win the championship this year. Perhaps if they really reverted to type and play the way the great French teams can play, perhaps if they won the match with another "essai du bout du monde" with which they snatched victory over New Zealand 20 odd years ago, they would have gone some way to redeeming their reputation and staking some moral claim on the championship title. But, in the event that Italy beat England, any sort of scuffy French win would see them crowned champions this year. That would be an unedifying sign of the real world with all its expediency and injustice and drudgery intruding on our sporting dreams. As it has a tendency to do. I'm looking for two fairy tales this Saturday: Italy to break their duck against England and then Ireland to clinch the championship with a win at Stade de France. It would be a fitting end to the career of a great player and reinforce one's faith in sport as the arena where occasionally the good guys win. Not much to ask.
Wiljoy
Roar Rookie
It doesn't begin to compare with the Southern hemisphere competition,New Zealand,Australia,South Africa,Argentina. where do you get the idea from when you say it is the most passionate and intriguing competition outside the RWC,for everyone agreeing with you there will be 50 disagreeing.
Jason Cave
Guest
England 40 Italy 3 Wales 27 Scotland 0 Ireland 24 France 20 -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
nickoldschool
Roar Guru
Although it is true that the main rivalry we have in Europe is with England, I really don't see France throwing a game vs Ireland "just so that England doesn't win the 6N". First, they are still an outside chance of winning the 6N, 2ly PSA and the players are under enormous pressure to perform. Fans would not tolerate a lack of envy or passion. If Ireland win, imo it will be fair and square and at the moment they are better than france. I have read dozens of interviews from players, PSA, Bru, Lagisquet etc this week and no one was asked or mentioned the Anglo-French rivalry, the possibility to throw the game etc. Many French fans still want france to lose as they think it might help getting rid of PSA but not many said the main reason was "to avoid England winning the 6N" (a few did). We don't like England but we don't really like Ireland either to be honest. I really don't think any of the French players will have "England' in the back of their mind. Ireland are playing for a 6N win, its BOD's last game etc. But France are at home and are under huge pressure so I think both teams will be fairly pumped up for this one.
Tane Mahuta
Guest
The ave tries scored against them is 4.
Tane Mahuta
Guest
The ave score against Italy over the last 12 months has been 33. That includes 7 from 10 at 30 or over. This includes teams such as Samoa, Arg, Fiji, Scot. Its not a ridiculous call, its quite realistic considering Ire put 47 on them recently. Italy are ranked 14th, 10 rankings below England. Im serious when I say that England will put 40+ on them. The only thing Italy have in their favour (maybe) is the scrum.
ChrisT
Guest
I really don't like this talk of 40+ and cricket scores.