Both AFL expansion teams are playing in the first half of Round 1, but the question still remains, were both Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney worthy of being the new expansion teams?
Looking at the figures you would have to argue no.
We all understand why the two clubs were the AFL’s preferred options – they aren’t in AFL heartland areas, the AFL doesn’t wish for any other codes to dominate across the country and given the potential growth of the two areas, it looks like a reasonable choice.
Gold Coast are now in their fourth season and should be showing growth, as should GWS in their third year.
Currently GC are sitting on 11,269 members for the 2014 season. When added with Brisbane’s 20,105 members, the two Queensland sides have a total of 31,374 members.
Presently, 10 clubs in the AFL have more members than these two clubs combined and last year on final figures, the same 10 clubs had more members than these two sides combined.
When you add that for at least the last five years Brisbane have made a financial loss and Gold Coast are being propped up by the AFL, it means the Queensland market can barely sustain one team, let alone two.
GWS have 9,798 members currently, 1000 less than the same time last year. The Swans are travelling along okay with 34,366 members, but in a city of over four million people and given the recent success Sydney have experienced (a flag and the biggest name in footy moving to play with them), that number should be much bigger.
Seven clubs have more members than the two NSW clubs combined, and interestingly Collingwood are only a few members short of having more than the four clubs combined.
Let’s look at these numbers in comparison to other recent additions to the AFL.
In 1991, Adelaide Football Club entered the league, and began with 25,087 members – at the time making them the most-supported club, membership-wise, in the competition.
They stayed at the top until 2009, when on the back of a Premiership, Hawthorn overtook the Crows.
Fremantle entered the comp in 1995, starting with 18,456 members. They were fifth on the ladder membership-wise in their first season, with just over 16,000 members the average.
Port Adelaide entered in 1997, with 35,809 members, ranking second behind cross-town rivals Adelaide. For the first three years of their existence in the AFL, the two SA clubs ranked one and two, membership-wise.
So can Queensland and New South Wales, with their massive NRL-focussed population, support two AFL clubs each? Early indications would say no, they can’t, and the AFL has made a mistake not taking the game to the people of Tasmania.
Unless things change big time, neither state will support two AFL sides, and they will continue to rely on the AFL to prop them up.
The AFL will never admit their mistake here, but time will show the wrong choices were made.
Not only was the competition compromised draft-wise when the new teams entered, it will forever be compromised financially as well.
Republican
Guest
Th ACT is a cynical safety net for GWS as well. The AFL's criteria for growth is myopic and completely dictated by a criteria of tele and broadcast rights. They sold their soul long ago as far as I'm concerned while I hold nothing but contempt for them and those who support their expedient philosophy of 'growth'........
John Hamilton
Guest
Darwin currently has a population over just over 130,000 It is a growing city no doubt but do you think it will triple in the next 35 years?
John Hamilton
Guest
Actually writing an article on that as we speak - Stay tuned
John Hamilton
Guest
The AFL got $1 billion and gets 4 games a week live on FTA plus one delayed. Rugby League gets $1 billion 1 game a week live on FTA plus two delayed. I know which one is a better deal for its fans.
Brian
Guest
You are right to point out that memberships and supporter numbers are very different things. Membership numbers are misleading now anyway. You can get all kinds of "memberships", even to see as few as 3 games. Even then, the incentives to become a member are getting less. Firstly, a membership often just gets you in the gate. Reserved seating etc is all extra. For a family, its much better value to spend the membership money on a foxtel subscription. Second, "home" games are not necessarily what they used to be, and people buying a membership know it. If the AFL decided to build a stadium in Antarctica, there are a couple of clubs who would be offering to transfer games there straight away.
kick to kick
Guest
Very naiive piece. Membership numbers represent only core committed followers, the already converted - expansion involves by definition something else entirely, the potential of a larger and initially casual support base . Roy Morgan has in recent years done polls that show the Sydney Swans Football Club is now one of the best known and widely supported sporting brands in the country. The numbers rival Collingwood. What no-one disputes is that following is much softer and less committed than that for clubs in AFL heartland - clubs like the Pies or the West Coast Eagles. What AFL fans from traditional states sometimes do not realise is how important that broad if soft support is to the national health of the game. In time the AFL will be hoping for the same level of recognition for GWS - not ardent weekly fans (though a core of those is vital) but people who know about the club, feel warmly towards it and will tune in when it is doing well or for crunch matches. They may not attend games regularly but will keep up and watch on TV. Some of the kids of those families will enrol in junior AFL programs. The West of Sydney is a huge population. Even considering that Tasmania is an Aussie Rules state you would need its population to be twice , even four times as big before you would prioritise it over Western Sydney or the Gold Coast. Adding a Tasy team will barely add a dollar to broadcast rights or sponsoship revenues. These are pretty simple strategic calls.
Kev
Guest
Do many Shield games bring in 4 figure crowds anyway? I recall the sight of empty stadiums in plenty of Shield matches even when Australia was in the middle of their most recent dominant era.
ctar
Guest
I would be surprised if Perth ever overtook Brisbane. Brisbane's metropolitan borders are becoming less and less defined as well. It wont be long before every population area from Noosa down to Tweed Heads will be touching.
Australian Rules
Guest
"Junior participant" means a 6 week Auskick course (not a one-off school session).
duecer
Guest
I can see your point, put you can't really say the NRL has VIC 'covered' when their team gets thousands less to a game than the worst attended AFL team in the State - if it was like the Swans, then you would have a point.
BNR
Guest
My point was not about players or potential players (understand that AFL uses short course Auskick participation also to show other codes their numbers). The article was about the 2 new clubs and the regions in which they are located. Kids will either follow their parent/s' club allegiances or follow the newer clubs in their area. Some kids have parents who are not or have not been involved with the sport but the kids drag them along to AFL games. Their friends drag them along to their local club. The visits of the players from GWS & Suns to local community & school sport does have some impact. All these factors may translate into merchandise sales and future membership growth in these areas. Immersion & influence.
Glenn Innes
Guest
To call a spade if the NRLdecided to pull up stumps on exapansion and stick with the East Coast it would have more than 80% of the Australian Population covered. SA and Tassie are basket cases anyway so the West which has less than 10% of the nations poulation is all they are really missing out on and my guess is they will plonk a team in Perth within the next few years anyway.
Glenn Innes
Guest
Where is the contradiction? - demographics dictate expansion into non core states is more vital to the AFL than it is to the NRL because the NRL has demographics on it's side. Perth overtaking Brisbane..there is as much chance of that as me playing AFL apart from the fact that Brisbane has a much more balanced economy than Perth and as myself and Jorji both note mining booms don't last forever Brisbane has a massive "hinterland" in WA you have metropiliton Perth and then nothing much else. Travel an hour north of Brisbane and you have The Sunshine Coast with nearly 300.000 an hour South you have The Gold Coast with nearly 600.000.Even heading west you soonn hit Toowoomba with 100.000. West Australia will never get within a bulls roar of even South East QlD then in the North ypu have Townsville with 180.000 and Cairns with another 140.000 what is the biggest city in WA outside of Perth?They don't have one just a few small towns.
duecer
Guest
Glenn Innes - your third paragraph contradicts your first. By having 75% more teams in non heartland areas than NRL, the demographics may cancel out the NRL growth. You have also ignored WA, which is growing fast, Perth may even overtake Brisbane down the track.
Glenn Innes
Guest
Jorji - The bust is almost with us...Chinese growth is contracting they are not going to have a recession just plod along at a more sustainable six or so percent a year. The main thing they dig up out west is iron ore..this is not a rare commodity there is loads of it out there and during the boom the big mining houses have been finding new places to dig the stuff up all over the world. Slowing demand and increasing supply equals you know what?...it's coming like a freight train!
Glenn Innes
Guest
Comparing the two expansion clubs is quite interesting... on paper The Gold Coast looks the better bet.Australian Football has at least since the seventies always had a good following on the Gold Coast...Southport Sharkes AFC for eg are one of the biggest Leagues clubs on the Coast. Also there is only one Rugby League club to compete with and that has no more history tradition or intergenerational ties than the Suns. Western Sydney is a much tougher gig there are Rugby League clubs like Parramatta and Canterbury that have big intergenerational tribal followings... they might not all rock up to games regularly but they have huge closet followings via TV and they come out of the woodwork when the team is winning. Also football is much stronger than on the largely anglo celtic Gold Coast ...Western Sydney is as close as soccer gets to a heartland in Australia. Balanced against the above is the sheer size of Western Sydney...Sydney has 4.6 million and it's geographic centre is west of Parramatta. If Australian Footballl can get even 20% of the areas sports fans interested in the club it will more than pay it's way.
Glenn Innes
Guest
Demographics favour Rugby League long term as the pecentage of the Australian population living in NSW and QLD has been solidly increasing for half a century. Back in the late sixties Adelaide and Brisbane had similar populations now Brisbane is almost twice as big.Every federal electoral redistribution sees Victoria lose a seat and QLD gain one South Australia is actually losing population not just as a percentage of the total but in raw terms. The AFL are aware of this they are not stupid.... which is why they have moved second teams into both the northern states even though they realise they are both before their times,This is because they realise if AFL is to stay ahead of the game they need a bigger presence in the two states where an inncreasing majority of the nations population are going to be living.
bp2
Guest
Actually, A League fan first then AFL fan . Are u watching the midweek Champions League Wanderers game. More crowd on a Wednesday night than 50% of NRL games. Not to mention Japan and other countries in Asia pulling more numbers than the NRL grand final. And more atmosphere than a State of Origin. Deflection is always good. By the way, after all the counter arguments I raised, you actually made no response to any of our points. Deflection also seems to work north of the border.
Glenn Innes
Guest
The AFL are very foolish to have GWS retreating from Sydneys west into the quasi inner suburbs it almost defeats the purpose of the clubs existence and will just cannabilise the Swans. The NRL has an advantage with expansion teams due to the fact they do not have a draft and a new team can active in the player straight away and put a respectable team on the field straight away. When the NRL plonk a team in Perth as they will you can bet it will be winning more than four ot it's first forty five games the record GWS has. Just imagine what sort of roll up anyof the NRL teams based in Sydneys west would have with a record like that.The AFL and GWS blinked they should have hung tough in the outer west and waited for the Bhuddist wheel of karma which is the draft to produce a winning team and when that happened we could make a true assesment as to whether AFL has a future in the suburban west.
sheek
Roar Guru
Clipper, I think the trick is getting sports fans to appreciate more than one footy code. Many are entrenched in one code & I believe they're denying themselves extra pleasure. Fans need to realise they can love more than one sport without giving up their first love. Last Friday night I had the TV to myself & it was awesome! I flicked back & forth through Eagles vs Rabbitohs; Rebels vs Crusaders; Sydney vs Brisbane Roar; Dockers vs Magpies. Where else but Australia can you enjoy four high quality footy codes??? I have to learn the trick of having one game on main screen & the others in a corner, then switch when something dramatic happens. Great for developing peripheral vision!