The Roosters, Rabbitohs and Sea Eagles will dominate season 2014. It’s not so much a prediction I’m making as it is a feeling I get about where NRL footy is at right now.
The quality of the playing rosters of Sydney, South Sydney and Manly suggests they are quite a way above the rest.
All three teams have been developed over at least a few seasons – almost a decade in the Sea Eagles’ case – and enjoyed roster stability in the past two or three – again, Manly slightly different in losing a few front rowers.
To read more Brian Smith, outside The Roar, check out his website SmithySpeaks.
They are not only filled with high quality players, they play like quality teams.
It’s possible that a serious run of injuries could set them back but it’s unlikely to rattle them out of the top four and they all look capable of winning the premiership.
However it’s not just about how good these teams are, it’s about the serious weaknesses of most of the remainder.
Excluding Melbourne and North Queensland, I just don’t think any of the others can topple the standouts.
The Storm can’t be disregarded, as they have those key, top-class performers Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk and of course coach Craig Bellamy and all the stability and culture of a winning club.
Maybe those qualities can all feature again for another season but I just sensed a little dip in performance in 2013.
Champions deserve to be lauded and plenty of people finish with egg on face when they don’t do that, so I am holding fire at present to see if the gut-feel of a slight downturn in Melbourne’s production is real.
The Cowboys are coming from the other end. They have not had that culture or as many top-end talents and performers and the coach is a rookie at NRL level.
It’s more a gut feel, again, that a player as good as Johnathan Thurston should lead a team to top four and maybe a grand final. But there is still something missing, which may come with time.
I didn’t get the feel that whatever it is was being sorted in a pretty scratchy home win over the Raiders nor on Friday night’s loss to the Broncos.
I was looking for dominance over a team without standout halves or powerhouse front rowers in that match. It didn’t arrive. Perhaps coach Paul Green can find it and bring it out as the season unfolds.
The Broncos have started well but are still trying to work out an efficiently functioning attack.
You actually need a potent method to win regularly. Where is that going to come from?
Ben Barba? A finisher deluxe and a broken play specialist but generator of efficient attack? I don’t think so.
Ben Hunt at 7 is doing pretty well but would need to improve his kicking skills and reading of play by too much in one season to be relied upon.
Josh Hoffman could do the job at 6 if he had a high quality half but he is probably a better fullback for this Broncos team than Barba is.
Barba playing in the halves is just not possible for his defence.
The forwards are working their butts off for each other and coach Anthony Griffin but don’t have physical dominance in them week-to-week and against the giant packs will get out-muscled.
The solution – and big risk – is buy Chris Sandow from the Eels.
The Bulldogs could also grow within the season. They have a proven coach and players who have been successful but something ain’t right there at present.
No fullback doesn’t help. The most important position in modern day footy in many teams, you often only realise what you are missing when it’s not there anymore and that applies to fullback and the Dogs at present.
Solution – and maybe impossible – is buy Peta Hiku from the Sea Eagles.
The Knights have some of the most dynamite backs but are the slowest team in the comp! Go figure.
The quickness of movement around the field rates a thousand times more important than fast-flying backs. Quickness of footy thinking and adjustment rates a million times more important.
Too many slow players and slow plays make them gutsy, hard-working and hard to beat but predictable and relatively impotent against the top sides.
Solution is start five years ago and produce some terrific, fast, young, athletic and powerful kids that grow into champions and NRL performers so you don’t need to pay veterans over-the-odds playing slow footy in a fast speed competition.
The rest of the clubs have not nearly enough in any department to seriously trouble the playoffs.
Sorry, but our NRL lacks real quality in depth at present.
karlos
Guest
So The Tigers flogged Bunnies tonight. Broncos almost over Roosters. There are plenty of surprises coming in NRL 2014. Only wish interchange was dropped to 6 or even 5 to make things less predictable.
brian smith
Guest
yeah Scott i know peter o'sullivan (the roosters guru) has a huge opinion of Cam K. or he did have? he did some tidy stuff for the drags at d/h but he too has some d issues - or did - early days in career so he can work on it for a good result with good coaching and strong efforts. Rules have made a difference in the rtransition areas as i have written about (and on smithyspeaks.com.au). the play the balls may have quickened up a bit (as in the fast ones might have some really fast ones) but there are still plenty of slow ones when the tacklers deserve to win it through good technique. Why would we want qptbs all the time _ remember Super League when Wayne convinced everyone that was the way to exciting footy but it turned out to be boringly unbalanced. Overall hgame moving quicker between stoppage point to re-start point. No cannon balls but still plenty of numbers in tackles at times too Well done NRL at this stage
brian smith
Guest
Yeah agree with much of what u say Trenno - u certainly know ur cows! Coote locks Locke out LOL sorry Agree on Hall as he is a bit the same in style as the bulky Front Rowers - I can see why u prefer Reithmuller for his workrate and mobility. Sanot i have not seen enough of as yet but he does have speed which would suit the Cows as as someone who can capitalise on skills of JT and RL. would love to see Ant M get a crack at 9, he is so enthusiatic and quick out of there but his D needed attention stilll last season.
Trenno
Guest
Thompson is still coming back from a broken jaw so I think it will take time for him to free himself of the mental scars left over. Anthony Mitchell should get a run in the next couple of weeks if Ray-Ray doesn't improve. Kostjasyn is handy but hasn't set the world on fire yet. The Cowboys really need a hooker with a confident running game. Watching Cameron King playing in the Q-Cup leads me to believe he will be the one that fills this void and should get a run about round 6 - 7 with at least one run with the Pride under his belt after he comes back from injury. Lock is also a worry. Dropping Reithmuller was a big surprise, and I believe it showed in the game against the Broncos. Hall was a passenger at lock. Tariq will do better but the 40+ tackles Reithmuller pulls off is hard to replace. In regards to fullback, I think they will stick with Morgan for a few more weeks but if it where me I would be giving Santo a run and shuffle Morgan back to the bench with Kostjasyn back to Q-Cup. Santo has speed to burn and has played fullback in the 20's so should at least have a run. Hezron Murgha would have been in contention but he too is coming back from an ACL so it may take him till next year to get back to full flight. If the Cowboys have the money I would love to see them have a crack at Locke from the Warriors but with Coote back next year and on a three year contract I cant see it happening.
Parra Fan
Guest
I don't think it hurt as much as being knocked out of the 8 by the Knights. Or having your 2 ill gotten premierships taken off you for cheating. Get off your high horse.
Haz
Guest
I'm sure the NRL is secretly praying for one of the Sydney clubs to fall over from financial difficulties. If the Sharks or the Tigers were to go under in the next few months, that would be a massive blessing in disguise, because it would let the league expand without watering down the talent pool too much.
The High Shot
Roar Pro
Seems to me that these three teams also have the advantage of not being too badly picked apart at Origin time thanks to so many international players
ctar
Guest
At least the worst team now the Eels has a few Origin quality players in Hayne, Hoppoate and Mannah. People forget the gap between the best and worst team in 1995 when we had 20 teams. I doubt the bottom 4 teams in 1995 had a single origin player.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Muzz I advised my members that there is ONLY 4 hopes as was last year. I do think the Storm will be leading after round 9 and have a soft Origin draw.
Brian Smith
Guest
GD66 firstly I been breaking now for some time in case you not been paying attention. Secondly you confuse yourself if you think I mentioned anywhere not being excited as footy excites me in different ways every season. Finally it is my opinion that there is a distinct difference in the level of performance capacity of those teams I have mentioned compared to many of the others. If you have a different opinion you are welcome to express it and tell me where I am wrong in your opinion but don't twist my words with your own attitudes. And the rest has been great thanks.
Muzz
Guest
Cheers Brian - I have also noticed in their first 2 games that they lose their shape at times,a little like the first half of last season.They tend to ball watch/stargaze or not quite match fit yet for those effort on effort moments.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Hi Brian, I agree with your comments about Thompson and Morgan, they have been disappointing. Cameron King is due back after round 5 and he may offer something in attack to take the pressure off Thurston, but they still have a problem at fullback. Brian, I would be interested in your view with the new rules to fitness, not just physically but mentally. I feel the top coaches will, as usual, exploit them the best. The ability to play an up tempo game and play out 80 minutes is crucial which is why I think the Storm are suited.
Muzz
Guest
Thanks Scotty, So who is your favourite to take it out this year mate and have you factored in the RLWC and WCC?
Brian Smith
Guest
Yes that's the proof. There are always surprises but I reckon those three are highly likely to dominate over the long run to August and more importantly beyond
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Muzz Definitely WCC because it is on 2 weeks before the comp starts and then the guys must travel and get up again.
Brian Smith
Guest
Yes. dummy half play and forwards leading the way more consistently . I liked Thompsons improvement in 2013 but they faltered at times in that department. Also Morgans new role at full back will be interesting. On the plus side it gives them more options in attack but his defense and kick receiving will be tested strongly by the quality teams.
Brian Smith
Guest
No mention of burn the room High Shot. Just my opinion or those 3 teams are much stronger in playing roster and stability than a lot of others by some margin. Few teams might be close but I want to see more before including them especially storm and cows.
Muzz
Guest
Brian - Do you think the Cows can be coached into a GF this year and what parts of their game stand out as needing the most attention?
Brian Smith
Guest
None of those teams have been embarrassed in my opinion although they have played some very tough matches - against each other.
Brian Smith
Guest
No surprise here - they did this last season - let's see what happens this time as to whether they can get going like they did at least for a while in 13