We’re five rounds into Super Rugby, and it’s already becoming clear who the teams to beat are, who the surprise packets are, and who the causes of desk-headbutting are.
So without further ado, here’s the first report card of the year.
As has been the case previously, this isn’t a ranking of best or worst teams, but rather my take on how each team is tracking according to predictions and guesstimations around likely performance and results.
Over-achieving
The easy starting point here is the Sharks, who are going a hell of a lot better than I expected when the season kicked off.
The general anticipation around the Sharks was that Jake White would add some structure to their big but mobile pack, and some rough semblance of attacking plan to their talented, but often mercurial backline.
But wow. What a start to the season. White has done all that plus some, with an already hard-nosed breakdown presence becoming even more abrasive and damaging, and an attacking flair that almost seems out of character for Jake White teams.
He always told us that his Brumbies would play more attacking rugby in year three of his four-year plan, so maybe he’s just stuck to the same time frame despite the small detail of changing teams in the off-season.
Unbeaten in four matches, the Sharks already boast the largest points differential, and are not due to leave South Africa until the first week of May.
It’s not inconceivable that the Sharks could have as many as eight wins from nine games by the time they arrive in Melbourne for Round 12.
The Lions are another obvious inclusion in this category, and I’ll be highly surprised if anyone saw their opening month back in Super Rugby coming. Their pedigree is good, and they’ve always done reasonably well at Currie Cup level, but for some reason that’s never translated into Super Rugby wins.
Suddenly, they have a method that works well for them, a young fly-half whose boot oozes points, and they’ve already recorded the three wins that they’ve averaged throughout their Super Rugby existence to sit in a well-deserved fourth place on the overall standings.
The last two teams I’m throwing in here are the Bulls and Force, who I didn’t really have the highest of hopes for in 2014. Both now sit on 10 points from two wins, and both are playing well above their expected levels in the opening month.
Both now face a big test, too. The Bulls have the Sharks and Chiefs at Loftus, before departing for New Zealand and Australia where they will almost certainly lose games they probably shouldn’t.
The Force have the Chiefs, Reds, Waratahs and Bulls (coincidentally) over the next month, before heading to Africa themselves.
They’ve done well to start the season as they have, but we’ll know more about them in a month’s time.
On par
These teams are going along about as good or as badly as expected. It was always going to be the biggest group, but it’s also the one that needs the least explanation.
Having the Chiefs-Brumbies-Waratahs in here is obvious. They were all expected to feature in the important parts of the table in 2014, and it didn’t take long for them to establish and consolidate their positions.
In truth, I don’t think any of them are playing at the best yet, but they’re getting the job done, and they’re winning games.
The Chiefs are showing that adaptability remains a hallmark of their planning, the Brumbies have bounced back nicely after a disappointing performance against the Reds first up, and after a start that blew people (and teams) away, the Waratahs will be a much better side for the loss in Canberra on Saturday night.
The Highlanders are ‘on par’ for the mid-table season I expected of them, though coming from the low base that was their 2013 season, that shouldn’t have been difficult.
I do worry that they’re a bit over-reliant on Aaron and Ben Smith, but they’ll cause some headaches this year, for their fans and opposing teams alike.
I wasn’t holding my breath for the Hurricanes and Rebels, and they’ve shown that to be a wise move.
The Hurricanes were impressive in putting 60 on the Cheetahs, for sure, but what about the three losses before that? One win a month might be about right for 2014.
There were impressive signs coming out of the Rebels’ trial games that the off-season defensive focus was paying dividends, but that’s kind of fallen in a heap in recent weeks.
And perhaps sadistically, this is what I thought might happen. Therefore, they’re on par as well.
We need to talk…
The Cheetahs and Stormers. Where do we start?
Both are much better teams than their lowly table position indicates, but it’s difficult to see how either team can get their seasons back on track over the next month, when both sides will face some of the more fancied teams in the competition.
The Cheetahs look a shadow of their 2013 version, like the consistently inconsistent Cheetahs teams of yore. Their attacking game plan looks like a variation of ‘JGITF’: Just Give It To Willie le Roux.
They already look hard-pressed to replicate their finals appearance of last year.
The Stormers are still very good defensively, but they remain bereft of attacking inclination. And as they’ve found out for the past few seasons, being very good defensively counts for little if you can’t create points.
The Blues need to stop giving teams 50-minute head starts before commencing their comebacks, or alternately, just try and play rugby from the start of the game.
Sir John Kirwan’s weekly No.10 roulette game seems to be having an effect on the team, too, with Chris Noakes and Simon Hickey playing different styles of games. What worked one week can only work the same way the next if you don’t make changes.
The Reds look to be in a bit of a holding pattern currently. We know what they’re capable of, and we’ve even seen glimpses of it, but I’m not sure when we’ll see that 80-minute display they’re so desperately trying to throw together.
The Reds’ pack is holding up well, and the back row is getting through a mountain of work in all the important areas, but they’re just not quite having the same impact as other similarly equipped loose trios in the top half of the competition.
I worry about the over-reliance on Quade Cooper, too, particularly while Will Genia remains a way off his best.
If Kurtley Beale has a quiet game for the Waratahs, they do still have Bernard Foley. If Matt Toomua is contained, the Brumbies still have the likes of Jesse Mogg, or even Nic White (and soon, Christian Lealiifano) to spark things.
If Cooper has a quiet game – like he did against the Sharks – who else can break open a game for the Reds?
And this just leaves the Crusaders.
If I held this first report card back another week or two, I suspect the Crusaders would be back on par. They have a good run coming up, before facing the Chiefs again over Easter, and I suspect we’ll be speaking of them in ‘contender’ terms well and truly by then.
They did start slowly, the Crusaders – they always do. But in all my time, I can’t recall the Crusaders ever playing as poorly as they did in the opening rounds.
Last week was a lot better against the Rebels, and the signs were there again that they’re getting back into their rhythm and that the combinations are returning.
I also think they’ve finally worked out their best backline combination, and with the set piece going pretty well already, this is another piece of the puzzle falling into place.
The few shots fired over their bow in the New Zealand media last week did the trick, too, and they’ll use this bye week to recalibrate and return to their expected standards.
dmac
Guest
I don't know the stats for the last couple of years but as of 2014 the Tahs had lost 14 of 15 with Kaplan as ref. Given that the Tahs have an overall win % in Super Rugby of about 55%, that might hint at why at least some Aussies aren't fond of the man.
dmac
Guest
Word. And quicker with the yellow cards for repeat offenders outside the 22.
PeterK
Guest
because they lost to force at home. They should have won that game, so they are underperforming. They won 3 games last year. I did rank them equal with Blues and Canes pre competition start, perhaps I ranked them too highly and since they have already won a game then they could be upgraded to par. Agree re intensity at BD and defence. Different ref and they would / should be punished more harshly. The brumbies quite often do not give a clear release at the tackle, and also lie there. They like sharks also put hands on the ground before attacking the ball when pilfering. Joubert for 1 would penalise this (quite rightly). Peyper is far too lenient in these areas.
Kuruki
Roar Guru
Nobody was complaining when the Highlanders lost to the Chiefs because both teams played well and everyone accepted that. The next Highlanders match was the total opposite, they played poorly regardless of who the opposition was they failed to come close to playing to a level they would be happy with as a team. Nobody is going to come out swinging if a team is obviously playing well but losing to better teams. The results of the competition may not change but the level of rugby and the spectacle can be improved across the board.
Brett McKay
Expert
Well that's very nice of you to say, Chivas, but I'm telling you, it won't matter one iota. Everything you've read this week in relation to the amazingly good access to the MLB players in Sydney, and how it puts the NRL to shame, equally applies to rugby. It's very rare even to get access to anyone on the day before a game, but the day of the game is just completely off-limits. As I said at the time, the only plausible reason Jake White let me follow him the night the Brumbies played the Lions last year was because there were no points on offer. Wouldn't have happened for a Super Rugby game... (And it's not just Aust teams to be fair - ESPN's not had a lot of luck trying to talk to South African teams in Australia last year, and again this year..)
Chivas
Guest
You know Brett if you are asking the right people the question you are controlling the conversation and will eventually find a way. Can't you sell it as marketing and showing a different dynamic and perspective on the game. Also for the most part you are a standup guy unless you have a power play against a team that wins... then you get a bit edgy :-). But you know what I mean, you are editor and chief and respect the opportunity to be in the company and get to speak to such gentlemen, you will show them in the absolute best light. Which in turn is not hard since they didn't get into their respective positions because they were incompetent. Which in turn delights those fans already hooked and interest those who aren't yet. You already have evidence it can be done and never tarnished the game or anyone's image. In fact the opposite.
Brett McKay
Expert
I can absolutely guarantee Chivas, that the chances of talking to any Australian Super Rugby coach or player on game day is less than zero. It just wouldn't happen. I would like to sit down with all the Aust coaches though, in truth. As to whether that happens, it's the $64,000 question..
Chivas
Guest
Thanks Brett. That is what I wanted to know. I'd also like to know what Chieka is looking to overcome that, because that was exactly the same defensive approach the Brumbies took to the Chiefs last year and darn near won. Meaning it is a style they know and play to very well. In the Chiefs game, Smith advised the team at half time to put it in behind, which no-one listened to and consequently almost got diddled for it. I am not suggesting that grubbers and chips work every time, but they create a bit more doubt in the opposition and prevents the rush. As you say with Toomua controlling the pace the defensive line moves forward and the timing of it along with a sweeper, the Brumbies are attempting to mitigate the grubbers and kicks in behind on a fast moving defensive line. But the Tahs employ a fairly flat attacking line so if Beale or Foley run and put it in behind or offload to a player running a different line who put's it in behind, it still works. Especially down a channel with someone like Palu, Hooper etc. running through on. I thought Folau's kick in behind exemplified the space. I know that is more common on the wing regardless of defensive structures so didn't bother to comment on it earlier. What I am interested in is how the Brumbies will adjust when the opposition do. I guarantee teams like the chiefs won't go up against the Brumbies unprepared or without a plan to combat that. Finally all this talk of Larkanism being added to Jake White's structure seems to be a lot of hot wind. I just think the Brumbies have got to where they were at the end of last season 3 games in. So all those worried about continuity needn't have worried by the looks. Lucky that Mowen stayed I think especially losing Pocock so early in the piece. Personally I think Mowen's on field leadership and composure has been crucial for the Brumbies especially with the change in head coach. Hope he get's recognised for it properly by the Brumbies admin and the Australian fans and current coaching team. But I'd love to see an interview with Chieka, perhaps a game day one where they play the Brumbies in the return match. Could you arrange that. You just need to watch out for hot coffee and broken glass :-) Thanks again Brett. I appreciate it. Oh and I still think Pocock is a huge loss to the Brumbies, Australia and all those fans who love the game. Do you know when he is back? You know he'll be an old man when he does eventually return. He might need to start planning for it, maybe talk to Michael Jones. Him and the Burger. One day they will both take the field for their respective national sides. The sooner the better IMO.
Chivas
Guest
True Nick. Growing up down the road supporting Waikato and then moving to Auckland meant I saw the glory days of Auckland and all the stars. Then moving to Auckland I had the privilege of playing with and against them. Days when Kirwan, All three Brooke's, Michael Jones, Clatk, Terry Wriggt, Craig Innes, Fitzy etc. player for their clubs. When Ponsonby, Marist and Uni were great sides (even if Waitemata had Jones). Auckland dominated and the world was good. Then Super Rugby and the Blues ministered everyone. All was still good and I moved to Australia. The Crusaders came and a team I had learned to dislike ruled. AB rugby had players like Caleb Ralph and Reuben Thorne (Auckland rejects I know, for good reason). Deans and Smirh (a good Waikato man :-)) were killing it and me. Being in Australia, I even found myself cheering the a crusaders on against teams like the Brumbies even though it tasted like ash in my mouth. The myth that AB rugby was strong when Auckland was strong had been debunked and the world was sadder for it. I just want the Blues to stand up and stamp their authority on this competition and sweep all those before them, except those in red/black and yellow. Is that so wrong to hope and pray for.
Chivas
Guest
You are a certified clown Tane. I never stated anything about coaches being sacked or rubbishing teams. I was responding to OJ who has a soft spot for the Bkues, not some goose on a crusade. Talk of over reactions. Read your own posts. I was here to discuss rugby. As you say you can post where you want. But your post is completely irrelevant to what I posted. So in your desperate attempt to make a big statement you come across more as a t0sser. Like a giant Kauri of the forest. Only in your head I suggest.
JB
Guest
Just looked at the seasons fixtures for the first time, filthy that we may not get to see the chiefs play the sharks this season. I really want to see these two outfits go at it.
Nick Cross
Guest
Well one clear reason why you can't have all teams doing well is that they play the four other teams in the conference twice. So if Cheifs and Crusaders are beating you home and away you've already lost half your games so your season is going to only be mediocre or worse.So to get better results they don't have to just play better they've got to play better than the other teams. That looks pretty difficult with the way the Cheifs are playing at least. Blues or Highlanders could replace Crusaders with a reasonable season, but only if the Crusaders continue to have poor results and so far their results have been better than their performances. That's unlikely to continue, so you might guess they'll actually have another good season since they've won ugly so far.
Kane
Guest
Buzzard, "maybe we have to lose every rugby trophy before we take things for granted" A direct quote from the comment I replied to. It mentions losing all our trophies.
Charging Rhino
Roar Guru
Kaplan retired last year. He reffed the Currie Cup final which was his swan-song and did an outstanding job. Great ref who was a true stalwart and hero, and I believe the longest serving professional ref ever at the top of the game. Why do Aussies not like Kaplan though? He was the one who gave the penalty on full-time for John Eales to slot over the poles against the All Blacks which gifted Australia the Bledisloe and Tri-Nations in 2000?? Any perceived injustice or bias is just that... perception. I remember him reffing games when Aussie teams had the rub of the green (both Wallabies and Super rugby teams), and some where the Aussie teams were not playing ball and infringing so they were penalised. Simple really. Another thing - Shaun Veldsman is not my favourite, but if he was so terrible then surely he'd have been off the refereeing panel by now? Yet he'd been there for years and knows every single rule far better than we do. He has made many really good decision in the past, perhaps you have disagreed because you are unaware of a specific ruling? And some which I have not agreed with at all, perhaps because I don't know the official ruling? Against all teams, whether from SA, Aus or NZ. In Super Rugby, Tri-Nations or Currie Cup. Again perceived bias is the killer here.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
PeterK, I read your comment earlier regarding the Highlanders underperforming, I found this an interesting comment. They won one game last year from memory, how could they be underperforming at this stage ! Nice report card Macca. I was very impressed with the Brums intensity, ferocious at the breakdown and in defence. Let's hope the Wallabies follow this lead. Tahs did well to come back into the game. The old Tahs would have got rolled. Plenty for them to work on.
Charging Rhino
Roar Guru
Short-Blind, being a Sharks fan I very much hope (and believe) that they are title contenders :-) They didn't play their best against the Reds yet still won by 15 points. Goal kicking is a MASSIVE part of your team. No team will ever win any rugby competition in the world without accurate goal kicking. Plus the advantage of slotting them from beyond the half way line with Frans Steyn there is huge. Last year they arguably had the best, or at least one of the best squads in the comp but more than half their squad got injured. At one point, as well as during their tour they had 12 players out of the starting 15 injured. This messed them up badly, and too many losses with a B string team doesn't help your chances. They came back when players became fit again but it was all too little too late. And in 2012 they reached the final. I believe this year they have even better players and a better coach. Anyway we'll see :-)
Tane Mahuta
Guest
196 was a very very very long time ago.
Tane Mahuta
Guest
Yes, Im often frustrated when people make comments like "this ref is blowing the pea out of the whistle" when its the players who are mostly at fault. If the ref gives you a line and you keep crossing it, whos fault is that? Refs do ruin games, no doubt but players often do too. P.S. Is Owens the best ref in the world right now? I think he might be. Is he reffing the RC at any stage?
Tane Mahutam
Guest
Hey Chivas, I will post where I want. Thanks. Didnt suggest your knowledge was limited to 3 games. How you got that is a mystery. A little precious mate. Again, post where you like because I can assure you, I will ignore your attempts to usher me away. Speaking of overreactions Chivas, you just won gold.
Dru
Guest
Chivas fabulous question. Brett fabulous response. Two posts in among the mele that is what it is all about being here at Roar. Thanks guys.