Through research, interviews with players and coaches and statistical analysis of more than 10,000 players spanning the last 20 years, I have examined how clubs recruit and create sustainable success.
When it comes to players changing clubs – whether it is AFL, rugby, league or cricket – the information that’s come to light has had some striking similarities from both player and club perspectives. And it’s data that should not be ignored by either party.
Before anyone begins citing players that fly in the face of this information, please keep in mind there are always going to be exceptions to the rule.
I have split the article in two – one part for players and one for clubs.
Here is the information for players to be wary of. Many of these are mind-numbingly obvious but very rarely thought of when money is being flashed around.
For players
1. Moving more than three times rings alarm bells. The more times a player changes clubs, the harder it becomes to settle in to the new club.
2. Regret related to changing clubs is almost always going to set in some time and usually when it’s too late to do anything about it.
3a. On average, it takes two years for a player to hit their peak after moving clubs and that is if they manage to hit their peak. Some players are never the same after moving clubs, although through no fault of their own (see point 4).
3b. If a player moves to an overseas club, the time it takes to hit their peak is even longer, with the chances of it even happening being severely reduced.
3c. On top of the last scenario, throw a foreign language into the mix, and the time it takes to hit peak performance is lengthened again, and almost out of reach.
4. A player’s output on the field at their previous club is not just solely because of them. Their output is a product of the knowledge and understanding that player has with the other players around them.
This is something unique for each player at each club, and is not transferrable. So it should be expected that a player who has recently changed clubs would under-perform at the new club.
5. A player’s new club is expecting them to perform at the same standard as they did during the last game at their previous old club. Players who have changed teams will struggle to deliver on this. The number of times we have heard players being described as “not the player he was at his old club” is remarkable.
6. A player’s status in the pecking order of their current club is always temporary. Have patience – coaches change their minds and clubs change coaches.
7. Staying for less at a current club is worth it most of the time, even financially. Just because the money is more to go now does not mean more money in the long term. There are many reasons why this is so, including:
a) There is a strong chance a new club will be disappointed with a newly-moved player and downgrade their next contract.
b) A player’s old club may not want them back.
c) A player is no longer seen in the same light by the market.
d) A player may earn more each time they sign a contract with a new club, but in the end, the player will run out of clubs.
e) Legacies help a player to get looked after in retirement. Clubs have a habit of looking after one-club players in terms of work and connections.
8. When a player changes clubs, they are initially an outsider at the new club, and, as a result, they won’t be shown the same loyalty the one-club players are shown. The more times a player changes club, the less likely they will be viewed as someone who is loyal, no matter what the circumstances are.
9. If someone new comes in above a player at their current club, the player needs to remember this new player may only be there a short time. The player should stay and fight it out for the spot. Changing clubs may only end in the player being on the bench.
10. Players should not focus on one per cent or even 10 per cent more they can earn. Get one per cent better at playing, and the rest will take care of itself. Dan Carter of the All Blacks and Crusaders is a great example of someone who simply focuses on getting better.
11. Working through the hard times and then winning a title at the same club is far greater than being transported into a team and winning. AFL player and St Kilda captain Nick Riewoldt said, “For me, if I were to go somewhere else and win a premiership would it be the same?”
12. You can make the national team from your current club. Paul Harragon, former captain of the Newcastle Knights, said, “I wanted to make the Australian team from my own bed. I thought if I could do that, it would be 10 times better and it was.”
13. Average players can look pretty good when they know everyone around them well. They will support other team members more, and are able to clean up their mistakes.
14. A player should find the best program they can, as young as they can. Being on the bench or in an academy of a club with a good program tends to ultimately be better than being in the starting team of a club with a poor program.
15. A player should never leave a club “to play finals”. It says something about them, and it says something not very nice to your old teammates. And, for example, look how quickly the Reds turned it around to win a Super Rugby title in 2011.
16. We find it very hard to find players who regret staying at their clubs but there are a lot of players who seem to regret leaving.
17. If a player does change clubs, they need to do it for the right reasons and do it only once. Then it is far easier to overcome any hurdles that may arise.
The key point I would point out to players is this – be very, very careful of over-estimating the role you play in your own success.
Rugby Fan
Roar Guru
Sorry to be late to this one. There's a lot to value in this piece but I don't think it applies so well to English club rugby. English clubs face relegation and not all teams in the Premiership get to play in top European competition. If you want to make your career at international level, you can't really do that from a team spending a season at the bottom of the Aviva - no player from the current bottom three clubs featured in Lancaster's squads during the Six Nations. You almost certainly can't get ahead if you are spending your professional career in the division below. The majority of players in and around the England squad have already played at more than one club, and many will probably add to the tally before they retire. There are many reasons why they chose to switch clubs and I'm not sure you can say any of them are bad.
Bakkies
Guest
Tbf to Moore he wasn't far off a title last year and didn't join a team like the Rebels or Force.
Kashmir Pete
Roar Guru
Thanks Ben
Old Bluebag
Guest
Brilliant Ben! This should be pasted up in the Dressing Rooms of every Rugby and League club in Australia! Perhaps you could flick it across to the Wests/Tigers who have that many brilliant youngsters at the moment that it's mind boggling - and the Barracudas are circling....
Ben Darwin
Expert
Guys lots of great comments. Especially you Johnno and yes i saw your suggestions. A lot of people have talked about certain players who have done well. I once asked Sam Cordingley who he played best with at 10. Now he played with Larkham, Knox, and a host of other great 10's. The important part is the way in which i asked. "played best with". His answer Nathan Spooner. His reasoning was "we understood each other so well as we played so much juniors and club together." The key is that one some players will be successful wherever they go. However it has taken for most guys a period of adjustment. This adjustment sometimes means they never reach their best again. Some never get the chance. On average it represents a risk and i don't think a lot guys think all of those risks through. There is no question for some guys changing clubs is the best thing they ever did. I did it but found it harder than i ever thought it would be and certainly found the same in coaching. I have listed huge rafts of examples of guys who have committed career suicide by chasing the dollar and then bounced around from club to club but it does do us much good to list guys publicly in this way and its not something i am comfortable doing. i will make this my last comment on this article as my wife has already accused me of having an affair with "this roar person" thanks for the great feedback and questions. ben
Ben Darwin
Expert
Hi rob the sort answer is yes . We are working with teams now to create the best combination of teams. We use a number called a twi which indicates the best available combination For success in the long and short term . I will be publishing lists for this on here if they let me.
RobC
Roar Guru
Interesting article. Im speculating the data has a lot more insights, in particular what conditions are ideal for a move, from player and club perspective. Otherwise, it wouldn't be useful database for recruitment :) Wondering if the database can help describe what combinations of players, coaches, programmes and administration which yields the best results for each stakeholder. Would be an ideal tool for 'sports economists'.
Johnno
Guest
I meant away games the SR champions won in the regular season 2011-13, for an article topic on statistics.
Johnno
Guest
Kurtley Beale kicked on at Joey's. Jarryd saffy the ex-NRL player at the dragons went to Joey's came over to Australia from South Africa aged 15 played for aussy schoolboys in rugby union.
Tane Mahuta
Guest
The peaking thing. Its common for players to a new club and to excell in their first season. I would argue just as often as not. You must agree that players change clubs and improve. Ben Mowen was at his 3rd club before excelling for example and he is better now than ever. Its true that form is not always transferable and some players excell in one club but not the next but it is also true that some players only excell once theyve moved. You say that regret will always set in at some stage. Does G.Smith regret leaving the Brumbies? What about Giteau leaving the Brumbies? David Smith is excelling at Toulon and many many other players obviously dont regret their move. Again this is not a rule but different in each case depending on the players personal experience. I said that they were completely wrong but what I was meaning was that they arnt rules to which there is only a few exceptions, they just arnt rules at all imo. Examples of players moving overseas and doing just fine is Giteau, B.James, Ellison, Potgieter, Michilack, J.Wilkinson, S.Armitage, D.Armitage, SBW (from Chiefs to Roosters), Sheridan, C.Hayman, D.Mumm, R.Elsom, B.Thorn, J.Goperth etc. Its true that players are helped by players around them but if you are in a team where those around you arnt helping your game then a change may not slow or set back your play but it may improve it straight away. Cooper may not profit under a particular system but excell under another. It all depends on the individual.
Johnno
Guest
Ben here is a little statistic curler for you,and maybe an article topic. The importance of away form in sport and winning titles, and one could focus on Super rugby the last 3-years (2011-13). if one has the time they can go back a bigger time-line eg 5years 2008-13. But say last 3 years to keep it simple maybe. -Id find it interesting to know how many games (regular season) the SR champions won in the regular season. eg 50% 4-4 or 40% 3-4 2011 Reds 2012 Chiefs 2013 Cheifs What would also be interesting is the way form of the team who came 7th in regular season (in other words just missed out on the super rugby finals). -I never played at a high level of rugby no pro footy for me just 1st at high school, but my old coach 1st 15 high school coach, said the pass mark to aim for around a-third or 40% win away, and win around 70%-80% at home, and you will win the title or be near the top. So if you play 5 games away try and win 2 lose 3, or if you play 6 away try and win 2, lose 3, and sneak a draw in there. All pass mark theory stuff. And at home if you have 5 games at home try and win 4, or if you have 6 at home try and win 4, draw 1, lose 1 etc. -But be interesting to see the away record percentages of the winning SR sides the last 3 years. The Crusaders always prided themselves on being tough to beat away from home, and always have given it to the Bulls and Stormers in there fortress. Some teams are good away teams, others are lousy. The cheetahs, have become a pesty away team they give it there all. I find the Bulls a totally different team, far less good away from there fortress at Loftus if ever there was one. Auckland Blues most of the time seem crap away from home. But anyway there you go Ben, some ideas for an article maybe, about winning statistic and away form of a champion winning side, and a mid-range team over the seasons results. Winning away form home on the road seems to be a nasty little hidden statistic that can be of importance in winning/and losing the title and where you place. Some teams put all there eggs in 1 basket like the Bulls, impossible almost at home but lousy away. Uurugay soccer team is like that, amazing win loss statistics at home overall very poor away record vs good teams. Mexico is the same, almost impossible to beat in Mexico city very few losses but poor away record vs good teams. Wallabies don't have to many wins on the high veldt in south africa, or at eden park, but hay who does lol.
gus
Guest
I'm still waiting on a "Rugby World Cup of the off load" as we were told would most likely transpire in 2007 on Ch 10 by Mr Darwin! Only joking. Enjoyed the artice. Thought you had a heap of really salient points that player managers, let alone current players should consider.
formerflanker
Guest
Great food for thought Ben. It would be interesting to look at the semi-professional schoolboy rugby players who change schools and the impact the move has on their game and that of the new school. There are some outstanding late entry (say Year 11) players who have brought their A-game to the new school, and given that they don't have a long time to build relationships with their new team mates they just have to rely on individual brilliance. Scholarships granted earlier in their school career (say Years 7 to 9) would give greater opportunity to build team structures and friendships. On another point - aren't points 14 and 15 contradictory? Are you suggesting a player should leave (or not join) a struggling club AND not chase a position at a top club?
gus
Guest
Ben Darwin's comment was a perfect copy of what Stephen Moore was quoted as saying when he moved south. Which is a shame on Moore, as he is one of my and the public's most respected Wallabies. Nevertheless, Berrick and Stephen didn't do as well as they both would have liked between 2011 and 2014.
Stin
Guest
So Potgeiter will Just get better and better?
Bakkies
Guest
Ben you must have thought that Karma came to bite Vickermann when he missed out on the 2004 title.
Hoy
Roar Guru
Did the Force flick him because he had KPIs on them, or did he leave because they refused his generous offer to play for them?
Ben Darwin
Expert
thanks Chivas . I dont necessarily think there are exceptions. Let me give you an example. How would Beale have gone if he had stayed at the Tahs. We simply dont know. So we can look at it player output prior to changing clubs and whether they get picked . And on average we know performance drops off. And that players who are one club players have longer careers. The french top 14 is a very lengthy discussion but there i a lot of evidence that despite budgets up to 5 times that of say a leinster of munster that is is not working. A key point in all this strength of relationships. And leaving guys who know how you play is a risk.
Ben Darwin
Expert
thanks Tane why is that ? Happy to discuss but need to understand your reasons. ben
Ben Darwin
Expert
Thanks Johnno Carl Hayman is greatly missed but struggled for a long time at newcastle and it took him a long time to settle in at Toulon. I was coaching in Japan when SBW and Maa Nonu were there.I will leave whether they played well to your imagination. We found in Japan the guys who were dominant were guys you have barely heard of but are able to understand their role . I certainly know panasonic played at their worst when delaney and SBW where new to the team. Wingy left league as well as anyone could of. He came to my club at NTT and left for Kobe. The reason Craig left from my discussions was that he was playing reserve grade at Souths and felt that japan would give him a different opportunity. My Feelings on SBW is he is the best footballer in the world. But i wonder if we will be talking about his legacy in the same way we talk about Dan Carter or Richie MCCaw. But being talked about is not why we do things. I dont think he will get the best out of himself if he keeps changing teams and certainly our evidence supports that.