Eight out of eight outsiders cover the handicap in NRL Round 3

Norma - Another thing... Scott can name drop statsmen but remember Betting agencies employ them also - sure thet don't get the best of the best they are either chasing big dollars working in the financial markets or as actuaries for Insurance companies or opting for job security and a cruisy life at the Bureau of Meterology but the blokes at the betting agencies are not useless - far from it.

Perfectly said Glenn.

We used to take our annual holidays to New York City... indeed if the joint was not so expensive and the cost of health insurance not so outrageous we might well be living there. In New York City (I have not been there since 2001) hustlers used to offer up street games of three card monte - for the ignorant it is a simple card game that involves two black cards and a red card.The game is very anciient it probably stretches all the way back to the birth of agriculture and civilzation itself...it was played in ancient Egypt. Three card monty is a simple scam as the dealer (In New York usually a black dude with a broken nose and no teeth) develops the manual dexterity required to manipulate the cards...the hand is quicker than the eye as they say.The game is not strictly legal and the cops would regularly bust up the show. None of this was enough to stop the mathematical gurus from Wall Street having a go - indeed they were the hustlers biiggest customers.These blokes (and it was always blokes) seemed to love spending their luchtime blowing a few hundred bucks.... maybe they looked on it as charity given they earn vast amounts of money they earn Betting agencies are really just a legal equivilant of New Yorks card game hustlers - no - they do not rig the games they do not have to... they just offer up markets between 105 and 110% and let the mathematics do the rest.If they get a sniff that you might be one of the elite few who can overcome this massive mathematical handicap they either limit your bets will let not you on at the advertised price or ban you outright which leves betting exchanges and very limited liquidity. There are three major problems with The NRL as a betting medium the first is lack of choice.There are 24 rounds of NRL eacjh round consiting of eight games that is only 192 games per season chuck in nine play off games and that is only 201 games. It may sound like a lot but believe me most of those contests will see both teams slightly under the odds so getting enough turnover to make anything like serious money will be very difficult. Secondly it will be tough to gather enough data to get sample sizes large enough to have any sort of confidence in.400 games is a pretty small sample who is to say the next 400 games will not revert back to the pre 2011 trend. Yes I know you can play around with mathematical formulea tp produce confidence intervals and calculate theoritical martgins for error but even in two horse races 400 is a very small sample in a game where shifts of one percent can cost you serious money. The third problem is Rugby League as a sport keeps moving the goal posts all the time because we keep having to deal with rule changes.Big time baseball has just left our shores,,, Baseball is still played under the same rules as when Babe Ruth was hitting them into stands. The only rule change I can think of in Soccer in my whole lifetime is that goal keepers can't handle the ball if it is passed backwards by a team mate other than that the games rules are the same as they were fifty years ago,It seems like every other season League fiddles with it's rules and it is only with the value of hindsight you can start to interpret what difference it has made. Of the liittle bit of football I have seen this tear it appears the rule banning the third man coming inlow is the most significant.First contact is now very important the first man in has to put a good shot on his opponent or you are going to get a quick play the ball. Players are going to have to get used to tackling a bit lower driving into the rib cage just under the ball and this may suit shorter more stocky blokes with a lower centre of gravity - but then only time will tell thanks to the NRL constantly altering the rules you are flying by the seat of your pants.

Stanley is not a hooker no doubt! I guess Price is trying to utlise to do both in case something happens to Rein or the 1/2 back Stanley needs to go into 1/2 back and try Williams or Witt instead if he wants to go that way

I dare say it may have been an issue that Price had with him If you look at Jamie effort last week he has no problem setting and creating tries Perhaps it was a player wanting to do it one way and the coach the other Jamie is not a runner he likes to stand deep and set up plays Shame because he can create havoc when he runs

You are right with the halves and also Dylan Farrell who is not producing the goods as centre. The Dragons need Kyle Stanley to fire as he shows a lot of potential He was rated as their star halfback last year but got injured at the start of the season Now he is on reserve so he may not be fit oenough or not showing the potential that he has I have not seen the last two games so I am not sure what the problem is

I believe Jamie Soward has all the skills to be one of the greats in the game Therefore disappointed that his form dropped with the conflicts he had in the club Is it the coach at fault or the player or both I do not know but at the end the relationship broke down Once that happens neither the coach or the player benefits and the reason why they let him go

Have you spoken to Steve Price? Have you spoken to Mick Potter? Have you spoken to Paul Green? You can only judge a coach over a series of years and how long he can stay at the top. You also have to look at the cattle the coach has to work with. Much of Trent Robinson's group was put together by Brian Smith. Now not that I am saying Robinson will one day be classed as very good but I cannot accept that he is near the same level as say Wayne Bennett, Craig Bellamy, Des Hasler, Tim Sheens and now I must include Geoff Toovey. I think Robinson has potential but we will see how he is able to sustain success. Remember Ricky Stuart winning a title in his first year?

But what you are forgetting to give credit about is that it was Price's decision to bring the likes of Widdop to the club. Soward was let go to bring Widdop in so I cannot see how you could have an issue with that. (And I am an unabashed Sowie fan). The Coach us often too much the scapegoat. It is much more about the combination of factors, playing roster, the leadership group and the clubs attitude.

Your point about the coaches is a good one. If we take top of the table Dragons they are in my view burdened by Steve Price. This is the man who had to force Soward out of the Dragons mid season, only to see him starring for the Panthers. Is he a reformed coach now he is top of the table? I think not, but maybe with Widdop directing the on field action and Macgregor directing offensive play as on field trainer Price has less influence than in previous years.

Forans ruled himself out, but who knows what that actually means

Auckland played in Grand Final against us.....