When I sat down to write this piece, I started to think to myself ‘why bother’? And then it struck me. That was the very point.
The fact that it didn’t seem worth writing about United’s trouncing in the local derby, and that City were heavy favourites before the match, highlighted just how far the Reds have fallen.
I fully expect United to recover to some degree next season, but the main question seems to be whether it will be with David Moyes at the helm.
United handed him a six-year contract. Patience and transition were the watch words – Alex Ferguson had a very sticky start to his career and look what happened next.
I am a trader by profession and in any market you are always taught to ‘buy the dip’.
Though United are not so much in a dip, but in an almighty trough.
The board and, to a large degree, the fans have preached patience and belief in their new manager – he is (or was) after all ‘the chosen one’.
Moyes, however, is cutting an increasingly forlorn and isolated figure on the United bench, providing an essay in paralysis of both thought and action.
Some of his expressions are reminiscent of the footage of George W Bush blankly staring into space in a school classroom, having just been informed of the tragic 9/11 attacks.
Now, while not wishing to link the two events in any shape or form, what does appear similar is the portrait of a person in power with apparently no idea of what to do next.
A badly ageing Paul Scholes aside, this is the same group of players that won the title at a canter last year, with the addition of Marouane Fellaini and now Juan Mata at a combined cost of £64 million.
Add to that the availability of Wilfred Zaha, purchased by Ferguson for £10 million, and the emergence of Adnan Januzaj, who Moyes has trumpeted from the rooftops about.
If you assume Januzaj to be worth somewhere in the region of £25 million, then that’s around £100 million of talent added to last year’s squad already (in very simplified terms).
Now, Moyes didn’t ask for Zaha, but he’s generally considered a fine young wide player. He can take some credit for Januzaj, but Mata and Fellaini have been dire.
It seems Moyes wishes to persist with playing with wingers. Yet out-and-out wingers like Nani and Antonio Valencia do not feature, and Zaha has been loaned out.
Mata was never the most spectacular of players while at Chelsea, but he was devilishly effective with assists and goals in vast numbers.
At United he looks like a journeyman pro with game after game passing him by.
Against West Ham at the weekend he did look much better playing in a central role – hardly rocket science I hear you shout. But Moyes responded by moving him out wide again for the derby.
For United, other than wounded pride, it does not really matter where they finish this season if it is not in the top four.
Missing out on the poisoned chalice of the Europa League may prove a boon in any case – just ask Liverpool and Newcastle.
United are far too big an institution to not be able to absorb one poor season, players will always want to play for a club of their stature.
What could become problematic is if missing Champions League football extends beyond one season and, just as importantly, that the winning mentality is lost from the club.
The Glazers and their loans cannot tolerate an extended period out of Europe’s premier competition.
Much of Ferguson’s achievements were built around an aura of relentless invincibility that he carved out for the club.
This season, several clubs have broken long periods of failure against the Reds, with Old Trafford quickly becoming the ‘Theatre of Nightmares’.
I honestly don’t know whether Moyes should be retained this summer.
While everyone expected a dip, one would have expected that dip to take a ‘U’ shape as the season wore on. Instead we seem to have an ‘L’ shape to United’s season.
Ferguson and the United board clearly believed that replacing one tough Glaswegian for another was the best way to ensure continuity, and if given time they may well be proven right.
The similarities right now, however, look restricted to only superficial ones – such as the paint-stripping glares that they offer journalists.
Initially I was a big believer in what United had done in appointing Moyes.
As a Chelsea fan I had my own reservations about rehiring the Mourinho who, although someone I idolise, wasn’t someone I was convinced should be coming back.
It is very easy in hindsight to say that United should have chosen Mourinho, but it is hard to imagine that things would have been as bad with him at the helm.
United clearly had a long-term end game. So is this just the short-term pain?
I am entirely torn as to what I think United should do.
The derby showed the first real signs of the fans beginning to turn against the manager. What United decide to do between now and next August will be far more important than what they do in the next transfer market.
The natives are starting to get restless and there can be no room for error.
fadida
Guest
No jb. It showed he battled well with limited resources. This isn't the same assignment as managing a title challenging club. He's also stagnated over recent years, hence very few Everton fans shed tears when he left. I imagine there's not a single Everton fan crying now (except with laughter)......
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
Fadida, I've seen Ralph Milne play bloody well in person in Scotland, take that back young man!!!!! (ok so he wasn't very good............)
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
J Binnie, I don't disagree with much or any of what you're saying but the numbers saying he is having a horrific time. What time frame do you think he needs to turn it around? (genuine question mate).
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
Fadida, you are not wrong. Stats bear you out. I think however United clearly and probably more importantly, Ferguson believed he was the right guy. I'm sure they spent months debating and then finally selecting Moyes. I guess what it maybe tells you is that Ferguson was a great decision maker in many respects but maybe couldn't see the woods for the trees when it came to this one. Think he was far too close to the issue and others should have made it for him.
j binnie
Guest
fadida- In case yiou missed it in 2004/5 and 2008 Moyes was awarded the manager of the year award for the EPL. Would yu consider those awards,voted upon him by his peers the other EPL managersas a sign of improvement those years??????? During that time he was also voted EPL manager of the month on 10 occasions. jb
fadida
Guest
But Ian, United as one of a handful of the biggest clubs in the world should recruit a manager of equivalent quality ie Mourinho or Pep should they not? Again, where is the evidence that Moyes will improve based in his previous 13+ years? ANYONE??????
fadida
Guest
I've answered this in detail on numerous other threads jb Ultimately where is the evidence from Moyes 13+ year career that he has the ability to improve? There is none. Agree? This is the key point. Why stick with someone who won't get better? What have you seen tactically that makes you think "ah, there's a man to lead one of the biggest 5 clubs in the world"! He consistently finished around 7th with a club with about the 7th best resources. When Fergie went through a 3 year "drought" I wasn't calling for his head because the evidence throughout his career is that he is a winner. Moyes shown nothing at all to suggest the same. No history if success. No wins away to the top 4 in >60 attempts. You can't compare Moyes and Fergie at the start because the league and United's status is so different now. Again Mourinho with the same 64 million spent would have them 15 points higher. Moyes is Fergie's Djemba Djemba, Bellion, Ralph Milne, Bebe, Kleberson et al
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
I was a big fan of Felliani at Everton I had to say and saw him an answer to my own Chelsea's deep lying midfield issues. I just think that for 27M I'd want a whole lot more than he's given this season. Paul Scholes - who rarely says anything negative about United - even came out and criticised him this week. I think much of the problem may be down again to Moyes system. If he's going to insist on playing what is effectively a slight variation on 4-4-2 then you need two dynamic midfielders in the middle. Carrick, Jones, Cleverley, Fellaini are all about as mobile as wheely bins. I do think Fellaini is still a good player but he needs to be either used as a holding player or in a more advanced role. Both of those roles suit his physial attributes better rather than needing to get box to box. Juan Mata hasn't become bobbins overnight either but again, he's being played out of position and looks like a pub player a lot of the time right now. The players are not being used properly.
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
J Binnie, I do agree that the comparisons are unfair as we're in such a different era. I think where the issue is in terms of the immediacy of the issue is the yawning gap between CL and no CL, it's night and day for the clubs. If you didn't win the title in the past well then there were 21 other disappointed managers and life went on. English clubs were not even in Europe at the time either after Hysel. I think United can easily handle one season out of the CL but if that becomes two then it becomes an issue and I think that's the big fear for United. 3 out of the current top 4 should kick on I would expect in the Summer meaning it's a very closed group and once you're 'out' it's tough. I'm torn, I really think the guy should be given time but at the same time, I'm just not sure if he's the right guy......... Really don't know what to think.
j binnie
Guest
Steve - A simple request. Watch Felliani playing in this team.He is constantly moving into space to receive balls under minimal pressure & though I don't have access to the figures I still reckon his successful pass ratio would be one of the highest in the squad.He is too slow for my liking & is no Scholes ( he lacks his speed & aggression ) but he has been an attempt,along with Mata, to solve the United mid-field problem in which you appear to agree with me does exist.When one looks at Fergies purchases in the past Robson,Strachan & Ince in his "bad time" it is an area that requires constant upgrading.How would City perform with their Toure out of the game for 6-8 weeks..?. Not too well I would imagine unless the cheque book opened again.jb ps I think Ian makes some very valid points also. jb
j binnie
Guest
Fadida- as I have said elsewhere you are on dangerous ground comparing a 25 year tenure with an 8 month tenure.As I also told you Fergies first season saw United drop from a top 4 position in the league (for 5 years) to 11th ,13th,6th,2nd and 1st in the following 5 years. What I didn't tell you was that in that 5 year improvement period Fergie made more than a few purchases from other clubs and introduced some outstanding kids from the "academy". Here are some of the names purchased during those 5 years., Viv Anderson,Bryan Robson,Gordon Strachan,Brian McClair,Steve Bruce,Norman Whiteside,Paul Ince,Mark Hughes,Jim Leighton,Pallister,Kanchelskis,Irwin and of course Giggs from within the club.Now all of these players were internationals with their respective countries and there is little doubt Fergie did mould them into a formidable unit. But it took him 5 years so there is no magic wand hidden up Alex's sleeve and he would be first to admit that. I won't bore you with the signings he did make (including his son) who did not make the grade at Old Trafford. Yours in our great game.jb.
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
Ian you're making valid points also. I think the comparison between Ferguson's and Moyes' starts to their tenures are nonsensical. It was a different age and United were a very different club in a very different situation. I would entirely agree that pretty much anyone was going to suffer by comparison apart from the two that you mention. I also think that whilst they have underachieved this season, they hugely overachieved last season. Ferguson's team was and had been in decline for some time but got one last hurrah off the back of the RVP signing, which in itself you could argue was entirely selfish from Ferguson as it went against many beliefs he preached in not signing players for big money over a certain age. Sheringham and Berbatov were exceptions. RVP ensured Ferguson went out with a bang and to a large extent Moyes is now carrying the can. That doesn't however excuse his tactics and his approach to matches. It was not Ferguson that bought Fellaini and it isn't he that has no idea how to use JUan Mata. I think you're right about the players. Anyone who has a job is paid to do it properly, they are no different. The fact that things are not going well doesn't give them a right to sulk or not play for whomever is in charge, that is short changing the fans who pay their wages.
Ian
Guest
I'm just wondering why one of the richest clubs in the world, still in 7th place or so, with players earning $100ks a week, need to put the blame on the manager. Anyone stepping into his shoes would have suffered, unless it was Pep, or the Special One. I think the players need to be apportioned their share of the blame for why they can't perform to last year's standards without needing SAF to motiviate them. SAF didn't win anything for 6/7 years but they hadn't won much for a while at that stage.
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
Presumably (I would have thought) United would have some kind of performance related clauses in the contract, i.e. if you drop out of the top 4 we can fire you with 'x' compensation etc. I'd be amazed if it was just a blanket 6 year contract they had to fully pay up. Generally with compensation I think there's generally a clause also that states it gets chopped or seriously reduced once you find another job - which Moyes would be able to do. I know that was why Di Matteo for instance was not in a rush to go back into management, Chelsea were paying him (and a few others!) to sit at home and do nothing.
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
Well you promised me a proper reply Fadida and you didn't disappoint! I'm honestly muddled on the whole thing. I think there's a huge problem with the whole 'hire 'em fire 'em' culture in football but sometimes you maybe just have to think you got a dud. I really don't know but the vultures are starting to circle for sure. I think the way he sanctioned paying 37M - which most Chelsea fans I would add thought was a HUGE fee - for Mata and then has simply played him as a winger is quite staggering. I think you've made some very good points, the record against the 'big 4' is quite staggering. Amazing even. Most managers who go on to be great find a way to do something special, win a trophy for instance even at a smaller club.
fadida
Guest
He'll never improve so he should go now. Even if he was on 5 mill a year he should still be axed. A 25 million payout is only one bad buy (looking at you Fellaini). I suspect Moyes has a few more bad buys up his sleeve :( Ps correction for myself: Moyes hasn't won away in 13 years at a "big 4" side, 60 games and counting
Griffo
Roar Guru
fadida, I was going to post a quote I heard (read?) prior to the season along the lines where Moyes brought Everton up into mid-table, but will take ManU down to mid-table... ...perhaps that was your quote :-D From the outside looking in it doesn't appear right now that he will improve the squad's fortunes any. Is he going to do that in the next five years? It doesn't sound like the club can wait three seasons for Moyes to right the ship back into UCL waters let alone the next five. Will the club be able to see Moyes, through the dark shadow of Ferguson, and make a decision from a football sense that it may be cheaper to let him go now if UCL qualification next season is paramount? I think we'll know soon enough.
fadida
Guest
Agree Moyes doesn't look like he knows what to do. A few points (that I make in every Moyes thread) - his squad has stagnated but they were runaway CHAMPIONS. Players don't tip over the age edge within a few months - a good manager improves players. Juanjaz aside all of the younger players have gone backwards Raphael, Jones, Smalling, Cleverly -tactically he is negative, reactive and conservative. - "tactics" mean 442 and dozens of hopeful crosses. -64 million pounds spent. Neither player has remotely contributed - When Fergie started it was a different world. Now they are a behemoth. And reigning champions - Fergie had won trophies in a 2 horse Scottish race (as the 3rd horse) - Moyes has a 13 year history of winning nothing at all. Do we expect this to change? - in 13 years at Everyon and United he has never beaten a top 4 side. That's over 100 attempts - this season they have beaten 2 top half sides only - I'm all for giving the right man time. Can anyone honestly see the potential in Moyes to turn this around, given his history? - managers make a huge difference. A better manager of which there are dozens (Moyes wouldn't be in the top30 European managers, and yet he is at one of the top 5 clubs). Mourinho or Fergie would have them top 4. Moyes is underperforming massively, with no sign of improvement Time to wield the axe before he wastes the next window