2014 George Ryder Stakes: Preview and tips

We don’t see many Group 1 races over 1500m, but it’s always a fascinating distance and a favourite of mine.

It’s still short enough to keep the sprinters interested, and gives a chance to those that are suspect at a mile (Steps In Time was the perfect case in the Coolmore last week), but it’s also long enough that the middle distance horses can have a say early in their campaign if forward enough.

I believe the George Ryder is the only weight-for-age (WFA) race over the distance in the country, and always attracts some good three-year-olds as it’s done this year. With $1,000,000 in prize-money on offer for the first time, it’s attracted a field full of quality and variety.

The likelihood of a heavy track adds another element of intrigue. Will the best horse win, or just the best horse in the conditions?

It’s a question we often have to ponder in the Sydney autumn. Your form guide will give you the bald wet-track stats, but we’ll delve a little deeper for you below.

Let’s get into our horse-by-horse preview:

1. Boban
What a six months Boban has had.

Rising from relative obscurity to become the best handicap miler in the country last spring, then flopping (on face value) in his first two weight-for-age runs this campaign, and then putting his best hoof forward to take out his third Group 1, the Chipping Norton.

Was it the re-engagement of Glynn Schofield or getting up to his favoured mile that did the trick? Either way, it was good to see him return to his impressive best and graduate to WFA racing as we all suspected he would. We do know that he holds his form once he finds it.

Wet form: Two starts on slow tracks to be beaten a long way in his two and three year old days. He’s obviously a much improved horse since then.

2. Gordon Lord Byron (guest post from Justin Cinque)
Gordon Lord Byron’s best is capable of testing our best sprinter/milers. He’s a genuine European G1 galloper, not necessarily a world beater, but a bloody good horse.

While he’d be better suited over 1300/1400m, his form is very good. His fourth in the Hong Kong Mile last December must hold him in good stead for an event like this.

He might just be one to get under the guard of punters.

Wet form: Five starts on slow ground for a second, third, fourth, fifth and seventh, the latter two beaten a long, long way. But he does excel on heavy ground, and one of his two Group 1 wins was on such a surface, over 1400m.

He’s in this race.

3. My Kingdom of Fyfe
The second of four Chris Waller runners, My Kingdom of Fyfe did enough first-up in the Canterbury Stakes after a two and a half year lay-off, despite being the last one home.

When you think about it, six lengths off the flying Appearance after that break in an unsuitable race was a very good return.

We’ll be looking for him to finish off nicely again as he eyes off a return to the Brisbane carnival.

Wet form: One start on the heavy since arriving in Australia for a win in the Queen Elizabeth (Group 1, weight-for-age, 2000m), and one start on the slow for a win in the Hollindale Stakes (Group 2, weight-for-age, 1800m).

It’s fair to say he relishes the going!

4. Sacred Falls
Sacred Falls returned in good condition, running a sound fourth behind Appearance in the Canterbury, beaten just over two lengths. His two second-up wins came in New Zealand, and he’s failed to fire in better class since arriving in Australia.

He is approaching his specialist distance though, and he did win a Doncaster after ploughing through a bottomless track, coming from last to do so.

Wet form: A Doncaster mile victory last year as a three year old, plus a slow track win as a two-year-old in NZ. It’s doubtful he’ll be going backwards in the conditions.

5. Toydini
Toydini is a talented gelding capable of running some mighty races, but is still looking to graduate to Group 1 level, especially at weight-for-age level. He didn’t quite have the slickness to keep up with them in the Canterbury, but is at a distance now where he is undefeated with two Group wins to his credit.

He proved himself to be ultra-competitive with Boban carrying comparable weights in the mile handicaps during the spring, but now has to take the next step as that horse has done.

Wet form: A second in a two-year-old maiden on a slow track, plus two heavy track runs – a fourth in an Eagle Farm Sires Produce, and a fifth, beaten two lengths coming from last, in a Benchmark 85 as a three year old.

6. Speediness
Speediness has run behind Appearance in all three runs this campaign, beaten by a combined eight lengths.

The best of those runs was in the Apollo Stakes when finishing (a well-beaten) second. While he does have a touch of class about him, there doesn’t seem to be enough there for him to beat this kind of field.

He’ll run his usual honest race though, and his trainer is rapt to be hitting a wet track despite the horse not having raced on one for two years.

Wet form: Two starts on a slow track for a second in the Hawkesbury Guineas (beating Steps in Time into third), plus a Sale maiden win.

7. Fat Al
Fat Al won an Epsom for Gai Waterhouse, but until recently has failed to recapture anything like that form under Peter Moody. This campaign has been seen him show signs of getting back to his best, with a Group 3 third and Listed Stakes win carrying 58.5 kilograms.

If this was a handicap you might concede him a chance down in the weights, but it’s hard to see him making the progression to weight-for-age winner.

Wet form: His last start win was on slow ground, with his only other exposure coming on debut in a Kembla Grange maiden, running seventh and being immediately spelled.

8. Lidari
Peter Moody has already had a successful autumn in Sydney, and Lidari is the second of his dual-pronged attack on the George Ryder.

He’s shown the ability to mix it with some good horses, and his Blamey win was well deserved after racing upside down to lead all the way.

He beat Sertorius by four lengths that day, and that horse since finished a similar margin behind Silent Achiever and Carlton House in last week’s Ranvet Stakes.

Wet form: Very much a mixed bag, with all of it coming in France. Two slow track wins (a maiden and a listed race over 2000m), but he also has one last on the heavy and one on the slow, being beaten a combined 43 lengths.

9. Terravista
Terravista is the classic Doncaster Mile horse, winning his way through the grades as a lightly-raced four year old, before having his final lead-up run at weight-for-age, allowing him to drop in weight for the grand final.

He’s beaten some nice horses this campaign, in the form of Albrecht and El Roca and is clearly a horse on the up. Winning this sort of race should be beyond him, but if he can claim it, he’s a stand-out in two weeks’ time.

Wet form: No exposure as yet, but good judges say Captain Rio, his sire, throws his share of ‘mudders’.

10. Ninth Legion
Ninth Legion was a Group 2 winner over summer, and returned with a slashing third behind Terravista and El Roca in the Liverpool, making incredible ground in an on-speed dominated affair.

The step up in distance suits, and the Hawkes camp could train a rocking horse to win at the moment. At four times the odds of Terravista, he has to be a great value place chance if he can get through the slush.

Wet form: One start on a heavy track at Doomben as a three-year-old, beaten nine lengths as a $2.10 favourite, which doesn’t augur well for his chances.

11. Tres Blue
We’ve only seen Tres Blue once in Australia, for a forgettable Melbourne Cup run when he was the first horse beaten.

At his best at a mile and a half in Europe, this will be the shortest race he’s contested, but if Gai Waterhouse can pull this one off we’ll once again have no choice but to marvel at her training ability.

Wet form: A slow and heavy track failure in his early career, as well as a slow track win once he got to 2400m in a listed race.

12. Red Tracer
The current queen of the Australian turf now that Appearance has been retired, by now we know exactly what we’re going to get from Red Tracer. That is, a consistent performance of the highest quality, too good for mares grade and extremely competitive in open company.

She walked in the Millie Fox first-up (winning it for the third time), defeating a subsequent Group 3 winner, and followed it up with a very good third in the Canterbury Stakes. She’s also as renowned a wet tracker as there is in this country, with eight wins from ten starts on ground rated slow or worse.

Wet form: Exemplary, as we know. Five stakes wins on the heavy and a Group 1 and Group 2 winner on the slow. The horse to beat.

13. Streama
Streama is ticking along okay with greater goals in mind down the track, but we probably would have liked to have seen a bit more than what we have in her two runs this prep. She may have a touch of the Boban’s about her and is ready to fire third up, but she’d only be taken on trust at this stage.

She is a class mare though, and meets Boban 3.5 kilograms better for being nosed out by him in the Epsom last October.

Wet form: Eight starts on the slow or heavy, and has only missed the placings once, which was a fourth in the Doncaster a year ago. She’s well-credentialed, and did win her Oaks in soft going, among other stakes victories.

14. El Roca
El Roca is becoming a very interesting horse. He won like a champion first-up in the Eskimo Prince, trouncing Dissident as he liked. He then ran well but let Terravista get passed him after missing the Hobartville and was then backed late in the Randwick Guineas, but was out-fought by Dissident.

Does El Roca have the stomach for the fight when things get tough?

His career wins have been comfortable, but his seconds have all been in dog-fights. My suspicion is that he throws in the towel. The George Ryder has a reputation as a three-year-olds race, so it’s time for him to step up.

Wet form: No starts on the slow or heavy, but his impressive first-up win was on a soft dead five.

15. Eurozone
Another who could be developing a reputation as a bit of a pea-heart, his three runs this time in have all been very credible, losing by less than a length on average. Even so, he hasn’t been able to get the job done.

There are a few factors in his favour though, with 1500 metres feeling like his perfect distance and a winning record at Rosehill.

Jimmy Cassidy is on fire as we know, and barrier one should help him land in a good spot just behind the speed, although with the Pumper on board he might just take up the running.

Wet form: Rumours abound that James Cummings was caught doing a rain dance earlier in the week, due to Eurozone being undefeated on slow ground (recording three wins in the process). Two of them were as a two-year-old, and the third was over Dissident when he led all the way at Stakes level.

Selections
1. Sacred Falls
2. Red Tracer
3. Eurozone
4. Gordon Lord Byron

Hope you enjoy another stellar day of Sydney racing, and let’s hope the track isn’t too bottomless.