Super Rugby Expert tips: Round 9

OK, so our Round 8 tipping wasn’t brilliant. Aside from editors current and former each jagging 5/8, the rest of us were left to mutter, “that’s not gone well” by Sunday morning.

Don’t look at Scott’s score for too long, please.

The Chiefs penchant for bonus-point draws is getting bloody annoying, and three away teams winning against the trend didn’t help either! Round 8 was the first time we’ve managed the big donut on Powerplays, too. Not good.

But the show goes on, and we have Roarers to disappoint…

Tristo and Paddy have the honour this week, and here are the Experts’ Round 9 Super Rugby tips:

Tristan Rayner
Tips: Bulls, Brumbies, Chiefs, Force, Crusaders, and Sharks (P/P).

Explain yourself: A round that promises some excitement and/or sleepless nights for the combatants – most of all, will the Force, at home, be able to beat the Waratahs? Now that I have finally tipped them, probably not.

But the Waratahs are coming off a long road trip and have a bunch of injuries to deal with, so I’m happy enough to do something I wouldn’t have thought possible at the start of the season.

On to the other questions: will the Chiefs stop drawing games? Well, at least I think we can put our Powerplays elsewhere with the Sharks back.

Can the Crusaders continue their roll? Against the Cheetahs at home? It’s likely but not by a lot. The Highlanders should be picked off by the Bulls, while the Reds versus Brumbies is my complete coinflip of the week.

And here’s my plug for the week – A skydiver nearly being hit by a meteorite while midair! Must be seen to be believed. What do you think, Brett?

Brett’s note: it just confirms my preference to only exit planes through arrival gates…

Paddy Effeney
Tips: Highlanders, Reds, Chiefs, Waratahs, Cheetahs, and Sharks (P/P).

Explain yourself: Ok, my slightly more risque strategy paid off last week, so why not go again? Let’s be a bit loosey-goosey with the old tips, shall we?

There was a great article on The Roar this week about how the Force are the real deal, and another about how the default position is to tip against the Force, as if it’s something of a giant conspiracy. So let me give my reasoning on choosing the Waratahs: all the other experts are going to be guilted into picking the Force, who can’t possibly win five in a row can they? Free points for me! I swear I’ll pick The Force next week. (Brett’s note: another great moment in tipping logic…)

In other tips, I’m keen on seeing the Bulls continue to travel poorly, the Reds beat the Brumbies in Canberra, so I see no reason why they can’t do it at Suncorp. Also, Jayden Hayward doesn’t play for the Brumbies!

The Crusaders are a much worse side than I expected without some key players, and the Cheetahs are due a win.

The Sharks are a banker, so they get my tip and my Powerplay as well.

Spiro Zavos
Tips: Highlanders, Brumbies, Chiefs, Waratahs, Crusaders, and Sharks (P/P).

Explain yourself: The Sharks are my power play pick, on the grounds that they look to be the best of the South African sides, even though they were beaten in Pretoria by the Bulls.

The Lions are playing above their ability, I reckon. But having Stuart Berry refereeing is probably a plus for them.

The quality of the refereeing, in my opinion, makes picking the winners extremely difficult. Some sides seem to be getting the 50/50 calls consistently, and even most of the 70/30 that should in theory go against them.

The other aspect that is difficult to read is just how good how are the unlikely teams like the Lions, the Force and, to a lesser extent, the Hurricanes.

Biltongbek
Tips: Bulls, Brumbies, Chiefs (P/P), Waratahs, Crusaders, and Sharks.

Explain yourself: It seems my humiliation has no end this season, so how this is going to turn out is anyone’s guess. I am going predominantly for the away teams this week, except for my bankers who have now dropped me twice in successive weekends.

Rule one for South African teams, don’t tip the Stormers, Lions or Cheetahs for the rest of the season. If you have thus far not tipped the Force then keep doing so, as soon as you change your stance on them they will lose.

Chiefs get it, but there’s no Powerplay justification this week, as anything I say should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Brett McKay
Tips: Highlanders, Brumbies, Chiefs, Force, Crusaders, and Sharks (P/P).

Explain yourself: It’s a sad indictment on our tipping ability that I went at worse than 40 per cent last week, yet still held onto my slim lead. But such is the unpredictability of Super Rugby currently.

Highlanders should be too good at home, though I’m looking forward to Brad Thorn and Victor Matfield facing off in a precursor to them both playing over-45s next year. The Brumbies are playing too well to be beaten by the Reds for a second time this year, while I’m even less confident than I was about the Chiefs with the news Liam Messam will start from the bench against the Rebels.

Here you are Force fans, a tip for your team. I’ve had success tipping the Force in 50/50 games before, but I think this is more in their favour, getting the Tahs on their way back from South Africa. The Crusaders just might, maybe, be back. Perhaps. Either way, they should be too good for the Cheetahs. Possibly.

And the Sharks get the Powerplay simply due to a lack of complete confidence in any other games.

Elisha Pearce
Tips: Highlanders, Brumbies, Chiefs, Waratahs, Cheetahs, and Sharks (P/P).

Explain yourself: We have two huuuuge Aussie conference battles to titillate the masses this weekend (am I writing a rugby preview or a Game of Thrones recap?).

I’m going with the Brumbies and the Waratahs, backing them to cement themselves as the cream of the crop, or the crema of the espresso shot. The Force are up to four in a row – time for a stumble. And Brumbies are better than the Reds.

Bulls lost to the Hurricanes at home and will continue the rot against the Highlanders too. Get on the Great White Sharks again this week – they’ll man-handle the Lions. I anoint you Sir Jake White of the Powerplay.

I’m sure the Rebels will make a game of it but is 2014 the year they topple the reigning champs at home? I’ll go Chiefs here.

The Cheetahs and the Crusaders might be a toss-up – so are the Waratahs v Force, but notice how I skipped over that with a snide remark? No hard feelings – and I’ll going with the home side in South Africa. The ‘Saders will have a huge hill to climb after round 8. Is the dynasty really, truly and fully over?

Scott Allen
Tips: Bulls, Brumbies, Chiefs, Waratahs, Crusaders and Sharks (P/P).

Explain yourself: I knew I was chasing an unlikely result tipping the Blues to beat the Brumbies last week but needed a break to try and catch up – spectacular fail with that strategy!

Now I have to decide whether I start chasing more unlikely results or hope for the rest of the field to come back to me. I won’t panic yet – it could still be a match of two halves!

Having entered my tips online I realise I’ve tipped five away teams and only one home team so I might be in for more pain this week. Force fans will be pleased to know I’ve tipped against them again this week, which probably means they’ll knock off the Waratahs.

The Reds will have to play very well to beat the Brumbies and I don’t think they’re playing that well, so have tipped the Brumbies. My two riskiest tips this week are the Crusaders to beat the Cheetahs and the Bulls to beat the Highlanders. Anything could happen in those two matches.

The only home team I’ve tipped is the Chiefs to beat the Rebels and the only result I feel relatively confident about is the Sharks to beat the Lions so that’s my Powerplay.