The early rounds of an AFL season can be confusing, with unlikely results doing strange things to the ladder. Now that Round 4 is done, the picture is a whole lot clearer.
Hawthorn and Geelong have locked in their positions at the top, just as they’ve done in so many weeks over the past eight seasons. Their perfect starts are not hugely surprising given both have had manageable fixtures, but the record of one will have to be blemished on Easter Monday, when they face off for the first time since Hawthorn broke the Kennett Curse on their way to last year’s premiership.
Almost every game this week was a thrashing. The winning teams had a combined margin of 557 points. Six of the games were decided by seven goals or more. But regardless of the scores, some teams had bigger wins than others. The biggest went to Port Adelaide and North Melbourne.
We know the Brisbane Lions were struggling, and now have an injury list that reads like a hospital manifest. But the flair and flourish with which Port took them apart was special to behold. So recently a laughing stock, Ken Hinkley has built a side with skill, flair and an appreciable lack of fear.
With their big forwards clunking marks, their small forwards using all their tricks, and a midfield fast approaching elite status, Port will upset plenty of sides. This wasn’t reflected on the ladder last week, drifting as one of seven sides level on points. This week they’ve jumped to third spot, with only three of those sides matching their tally.
North is one of those, sixth on percentage after narrowly beating Port last week. Questioned after an indifferent first-round loss to Essendon, they now have three in a row after travelling to Sydney and comprehensively beating one of the pre-season favourites. The thoroughness of the win was what impressed.
Fremantle have also confirmed their credentials, bouncing back after a heavy loss to Hawthorn to grab fifth spot by thrashing Essendon. This dropped the Bombers to seventh, one spot ahead of Greater Western Sydney. I’d love to know if anyone tipped the Giants to be in the eight after four rounds, but there they are, a combination of two wins and two narrow losses keeping them ahead of four others on percentage.
Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs were the big winners from outside the eight, climbing close enough to stare through the window at the feast inside. Both started poorly this year, but won this week to climb back to 2-2.
Below them, the sighs of relief and shouts of triumph were coming from Adelaide and the Demons, climbing off the floor of the competition with their first wins of the season. The psychological effect of a zero in the points column would quickly become debilitating, so that’s one obstacle out of the way. Adelaide will expect to keep climbing.
As far as the losers go, there are several. Richmond and Sydney were routinely tipped to be top-four sides this year. Neither has remotely looked like it. They have lost to lowly opposition, barely turned up against merely competent teams, and turned in one win from four starts. In Richmond’s case, even the win was one they did their best to lose.
Earlier, we wrote these off as early-season glitches from teams that would hit their stride. They may yet, but Round 4 has consolidated Sydney and Richmond in 13th and 14th place, firmly among the bottom third of the AFL. Their tenancy is no longer a fluke.
Carlton is another from whom we expected more – perhaps not top eight, but not far off. Instead, they remain in the rapidly dwindling club of sides without a win, with only Brisbane now for company.
Having let slip their chances against St Kilda and the Bulldogs, GWS’s holiday in the sun should come to an end with this weekend’s trip to Adelaide to play the newly awakened Crows.
Those who’ll lose most in the next couple of weeks though are the West Coast Eagles. After three rounds they topped the ladder with a percentage over 200, statistically an arisen phoenix. The stats were skewed by home games against the Bulldogs and Saints and one away game against the Demons.
This week, in making the long trip over to Geelong, West Coast lost half a dozen players to injury and suspension, and barely showed up. After kicking four goals in a tight first quarter, the Eagles decided that was enough, playing out three goalless quarters to register their lowest score ever against the Cats.
It’s been fun at the top, but that time is over. They’ve already dropped to fourth in one round, and until they can put a team together, there’ll be further rude descents in the weeks to come.
I do love a good dose of randomness, but anomaly season has come to a close.
Geoff Lemon
Expert
Accurate comment on the trip to Perth, it's almost a write-off for most teams. The Swans' form is inexplicable, really.
Geoff Lemon
Expert
The Eagles did have an armchair ride to that point, and not many interstate sides like travelling to Kardinia. Easter Monday should be a great show.
Geoff Lemon
Expert
They're going to be good to watch, though.
Geoff Lemon
Expert
Even in their losses Adelaide played well in patches. It was hard to pinpoint what was going so badly wrong later in games.
Cat
Roar Guru
And they are still there ...
Cat
Roar Guru
That could be true Gecko, except round 2 disproves that, Ess had a heap of the ball, in fact just shy of 100 more poss but hawks still laid 20 less tackles then Ess. Also look at Geelong round 4, Eagles only managed 314 poss but Geelong still laid 73 tackles. No saying it means the Hawks can't tackle, but if they are forced to start doing so what effect will it have on the rest of their game? I looked at most of the stats leading into the Monday clash and there isn't much separating the two sides stats wise other then this stat (and clearances, but thats a bit misleading, can only get lots of clearances if there are lots of stoppages).
Bogga
Guest
I wouldn't write of Essendon after quiet game in the West, happens to lots of teams on big trips every now and then they just put in a stinker, that's sport. Hawthorn are out in front, with Geelong, Essendon and Freo not far behind. Sydney are obviously the biggest disappointment. Melbourne, Carlton, Brisbane, they were all expected to be pretty average. It's been great watching the young guys from GWS and GC going about it. I think the hawks will beat the cats this week, but it matters who wins the Prelim and GF, not who wins round 5 or 17.
mattyb
Guest
Round 4 has shown me that Crameri is the recruit of the year,Jones is finally living up to his promise,and with Grant to come back after the way he finished last year the doggies are looking a final eight contender.Big game this week to try and keep Carlton from bouncing back but not a big ask if your fairdinkum about finals footy.Hopefully round 5 talk will include a bit more about the ever improving young dish lickers from out west.
Floyd Calhoun
Guest
Probably based on the last two matches between these teams. Both were big wins to the Tigers. Not so sure this time around though.
handles
Guest
I think this comment was written in late August last year, and inadvertently repeated here. Sorry for the stuff up Michael, it has made you look rather silly. As we all know, Richmond had a brief moment of looking OK in the back end of the 2013 season, but then reality set in, and situation normal was re-established. As of Round 4 in 2014, they don't belong in the same league as Hawthorn.
handles
Guest
Correction - they made the Eagles look like nobodies. Before the weekend, most people had the Eagles looking pretty good.
Radelaide
Guest
On talking footy they pointed out Ross Lyon's comments that the key to beating Hawthorn is to beat them at stoppages because once they have the ball they are near impossible to get it back off of, you just can't rely on them turning it over. Just an aside they say the way to get Geelong is to play tight on Stevie J and Stokes and give them nothing but having 2 disciplined enough players who can still fit in your team structures is the problem, like Brent Harvey you can be tight on him all day or night and then he slips away a couple of times right at the end and all of a sudden Port loses their first of the season (BUGGER!).
Michael Steel
Roar Pro
I made my comments within the Sean Mortell article.
Michael Steel
Roar Pro
I've made 3 comments about this round but they've disappeared. I've called this round as one of the darkest days in AFL history. Paraphrasing. 3-4 massacres. Good sides flogging good sides and the only close results between teams that don't score anyway.
Michael Steel
Roar Pro
I've made 3 comments about this round but they've disappeared. I've called this round as one of the darkest days in AFL history. Paraphrasing. 3-4 massacres. Good sides flogging good sides and the only close results between teams that don't score anyway.
Gecko
Guest
Interesting stats Gene. I suspect the Hawks' low tackle count is not because they're applying less pressure than Geelong but because the Hawks' opposition rarely actually get possession of the ball!
Cat
Roar Guru
Rd1: Haw - 398 poss, 55 tackles Bris - 312 poss, 65 tackles --- Gee - 364 poss, 82 tackles Ade - 370 poss, 60 tackles Rd2: Haw - 314 poss, 46 tackles Ess - 411 poss, 66 tackles --- Gee - 326 poss, 91 tackles Bris - 328 poss, 81 tackles Rd3: Haw - 492 poss, 38 tackles Freo - 311 poss, 49 tackles --- Gee - 371 poss, 65 tackles Col - 342 poss, 55 tackles Rd4: Haw - 465 poss, 52 tackles Suns - 340 poss, 61 tackles --- Gee - 427 poss, 73 tackles WCE - 314 poss, 47 tackles What does it all mean? Don't know, but it does point out quite a contrasting style of game played by both sides.
handles
Guest
Yeah! We should have a national draft, that would fix it. Oh, wait...
macca
Guest
Gene - I remeber the same logic being applied to the Blues in 1995. On the tackle count do you ahve a comparison of possessions compared to opponent - the Hawthorn number seems very low but I suspect it is partly due to the opponent simply not having the ball, the Hawks are usually great at winning the contest ball and kepping it.
Cat
Roar Guru
Sounds much Like Geelong circa 2008 ... who didn't win the flag. Couple things to think about at least: Its a long season with a lot of games to go, can Hawthorn keep it up the entire time or is it possible they are peaking too soon? If they make it by Geelong this round and stay unbeaten for a while will the pressure of an unbeaten season eventually get to them? This weeks game against Geelong may be the first time this year Hawthorn faces a high pressure, high tackling team. Geelong is 2nd in the AFL averaging 77.7 tackles a game, Hawks dead last averaging 47.7 tackles a game.