The Championships: 2014 Queen Elizabeth Stakes preview and tips

It’s the race we’ve been building to for months. The Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, weight-for-age), the crown jewel of the first running of The Championships in Sydney, is finally here.

Much debate has and will continue to be held about where this race can and should sit in regards to the Cox Plate. The prize money alone makes it a worthy topic of discussion, but any conclusions drawn will always come down to the fields.

Interestingly enough, none of the first seven home from the Moonee Valley race are here for various reasons, and only two of the fourteen that contested the Plate are lining up on Saturday. It just goes to show how quickly the landscape can change in the world of horse racing. Six months is a lifetime.

1. Boban
Boban is the best miler in the country, but stepping beyond that distance for the first time. He’s undefeated this season over 1600m, claiming three Group 1s in the process: the Epsom Handicap, Emirates Stakes and Chipping Norton Stakes.

Despite a stuttering start to this campaign, he graduated to weight-for-age winner once up to his favoured mile, but then got way too far back in the George Ryder. He made good ground out wide that day, but wasn’t at his most comfortable on the slow track.

He was scratched last week due to wet conditions, where he would have carried top weight in the Doncaster. With his stablemates filling the first four places home, he’s from a yard in peak form.

Wet form: Three starts on slow tracks, being beaten an average of six lengths. It’s not his most favoured surface, and he will likely be scratched if the track is heavy.

2. It’s a Dundeel
It’s a Dundeel continues to prove himself as a very, very competitive Group 1 four-year-old, just not the superstar that he promised to be when winning the three-year-old triple crown.

His last twelve months have seen seven runs at Group 1 level for an Underwood Stakes win, plus two seconds, two thirds, a fourth, and a Cox Plate failure when poorly ridden and coming off a foot abscess.

Even if we disregard the Cox Plate run, he hasn’t actually gone close to winning a race outside that classic Underwood Stakes. His average losing margin is two lengths over that time, which extends to three if the Cox Plate is included.

He has worked home well all three runs this campaign, but not with the sort of dazzling sprint that we might have expected by now. Trainer Murray Baker has asked for patience, asking us to wait for his grand final day before passing judgement. He put in an impressive gallop earlier this week in his final hit-out.

It’s A Dundeel is a threat in this race, but he’s going to have to lift to turn the tables on Silent Achiever and must find his very, very best in order to win.

Wet form: He won the Underwood Stakes on a slow track, and was second in the BMW on a heavy.

3. Sacred Falls
Sacred Falls is the first of four Chris Waller runners backing up from the Doncaster, but none were more impressive than this horse, who won the race due to his love of a wet track and an exquisitely patient ride from Zac Purton.

He’s at his best when ridden quietly and allowed to settle, and is such an honest horse that he almost never runs badly and is never far away.

He has seen 2000m once, when second to It’s A Dundeel, beaten seven lengths, in the Rosehill Guineas last season. None of the horses behind them that day have proven to be any better than Listed class.

Sacred Falls is in form, and will enjoy any cut out of the track more than any other horse in the field. He still has to make the jump to weight-for-age horse, but he won’t be far away.

Wet form: His two Doncaster wins have come on genuine heavy tracks, plus he has a slow track win as a two-year-old in New Zealand. Every drop of rain works in his favour.

4. Green Moon
Even though we haven’t seen him for six weeks, Green Moon has returned in excellent order this campaign after disappointing in the spring.

There has always been a question mark over whether he could graduate to genuine weight-for-age class, with his two Group 1 wins being in a handicap and a set-weights-penalties race, both in the spring of 2012.

We’ve seen him twice this year, in the Peter Young at Caulfield, and Australian Cup at Flemington, ridden forward on each occasion, and twice being beaten less than a length by Fiorente, who was in form and injury-free at the time.

Lloyd Williams horses often have unusual preparations, but it rarely seems to cost them. If he can bring the best of his big-track form he could be a player at odds, even if it’s difficult to see him winning.

Wet form: Scratched from the BMW due to track condition, he’s had one slow track start in this country, which was an even run in the Underwood Stakes last spring. He raced twice on the slow in England, and never figured either time.

5. Carlton House
Before his last-start Ranvet Stakes second when he just failed to hold out Silent Achiever, Carlton House was still probably best known in Australia for two things – being owned by Her Majesty The Queen, and running second in So You Think’s last performance when he won the Group 1 Price of Wales at Royal Ascot.

He was never quite ready enough to make it to the track in the spring, and was a year between runs when appearing in the Expressway first-up. He did enough that day before improving sharply when jumping up 700m into the Parramatta Cup.

His Ranvet run was excellent, running along at a strong tempo and looking the winner for a large part of the straight. The form out of that race has held up, with Silent Achiever winning the BMW, and It’s a Dundeel and Hawkspur (third and fourth) running well at Group 1 level since.

A horse owned by the Queen, winning a race named after his owner, trained by the ‘Queen’ of Australian racing, and with Tommy Berry on board. It looks like a win just waiting to happen.

Wet form: Three slow track starts for a second on debut in a maiden (beaten four lengths), a fourth at Group 1 level over a mile (beaten 6.5 lengths), and a second in the Parramatta Cup (beaten three lengths). Goes okay, but still a bit of an unknown.

6. Hawkspur
After failing first up down in Melbourne, Hawkspur has put in three excellent Sydney runs heading into this race.

He was two lengths behind Boban and one length behind It’s a Dundeel in the Chipping Norton, and then two and a half lengths off Silent Achiever and Carlton House in the Ranvet. In the Doncaster, he was five and six lengths off Sacred Falls and Royal Descent, though the margins are accentuated by them being wet track swimmers.

He’s been meeting key rivals for this race and finding himself not threatening them for victory. It’s a tough ask to turn it around on all of them.

Wet form: His strong-finishing fourth in the Doncaster says he can get through a heavy track when in form. He’s had three starts on slow tracks for his George Ryder second, a second in the Hawkesbury Guineas (beating Steps in Time into third), plus a Sale maiden win.

7. My Kingdom of Fife
The last of the male Waller runners, My Kingdom of Fife has run evenly in all three return runs this campaign.

He’s obviously nowhere near the form of 2011, his first year in Australia, when he had six runs, all at Group level, for four wins, including this very race, and two seconds.

He’ll appreciate stepping up to 2000m, and will be getting ever fitter, but he’s going to need to find a good six to eight lengths to be competitive here.

Wet form: Won the Queen Elizabeth on the heavy in 2011, as well as the Hollindale Stakes later that campaign on the slow. When in form, he loves the slops.

8. Toydini
Toydini is like a lesser version of Boban or Sacred Falls, running well in the big races around the mile distance, but unable to find the line ahead of all others.

His record this prep is 4: 0-0-0, but he’s been out-graded at weight-for-age a couple of times, while still running well, before getting a long way back and failing to make ground on the heavy track in the Doncaster when under more acceptable handicap conditions.

He’s going well enough to win his right race, but this isn’t it. A freshen after the George Ryder and then to the All-Aged might have been the right move in hindsight.

Wet form: Some early career runs were inconclusive. His slow track George Ryder run was very good, but his Doncaster run says heavy tracks aren’t his thing. At his best on top of the ground.

9. Le Roi
Let’s face it, Le Roi is the clear odd-horse-out in this field, and his odds on the day will reflect it.

He has proven himself to be a more than hand city-class and lower grade black-type event sort of horse in his time in Australia, and is one of only three horses bringing last-start winning form to the race.

When the organizers of The Championships put together this wonderful celebration of racing, and allocated $4 million prizemoney to the Queen Elizabeth, it’s doubtful whether Le Roi is the horse they were thinking of.

Wet form: He won the Group 3 Summer Cup at Rosehill on a slow track in 2012, and was three lengths off Fiveandahalfstar (and Silent Achiever) in the BMW last year.

10. Silent Achiever
Talk about a fitting name for a horse. Silent Achiever has quietly gone about winning four races this campaign, including three at Group 1 weight-for-age level, and still won’t go in favourite for this race on Saturday.

She was able to out-grind Carlton House in a two-horse on-pace war in the Ranvet Stakes, and then backed it up by sitting midfield and comprehensively trouncing the BMW field when each horse had every conceivable chance.

As fellow Roarer Justin Cinque wrote a couple of weeks ago, she is a different race mare this prep. She’s finally matured into her talent, and become much more relaxed after the application of blinkers. Her New Zealand Stakes and Ranvet wins were on good tracks too, so she’s not just a ‘mudder’.

She’s the testing material, and the one they all have to beat.

Wet form: She relishes a chopped up track. Won the BMW on the heavy (ran second in the same race on a slow track), and won her New Zealand Derby on slow ground too.

11. Royal Descent
Royal Descent is pounding the door down to get her first win since her three-year-old days, and might just do it in the biggest race of The Championships.

Her Coolmore Stakes fifth was the run of the day, suggesting she was cherry ripe for her tilt at even bigger races. She backed that thinking up with a slashing second in the Doncaster, looking the winner for a large portion of the straight.

Chris Waller has always had the Queen Elizabeth in mind for her, so there is no fear of it being an afterthought. Her two career 2400m runs – a ten-length Oaks win and a Caulfield Cup fifth when beaten less than two lengths – tell us she’ll eat up 2000m and will be strong through the line.

She might need a heavy track to win the race, but she’ll be running well regardless.

Wet form: Her ten-length heavy track Oaks win is the obvious standout, and last week’s second in the Doncaster, when she and Sacred Falls spreadeagled the field, showed she had lost none of her wet-track capabilities.

12. Dear Demi
Dear Demi looked to have returned in sparkling form when lumping 59kg’s into third behind Catkins first-up, but has since disappointed and flat-out failed in two subsequent runs.

She’s actually run five Group 1 placings when starting at double-figure odds in her career, so knows how to produce the goods when not rated a winning chance beforehand.

She’s going to have to take that sort of record to new levels this time around though, coming off a career-worst run when last in the Doncaster, and stepping into what is at least the equal of any previous toughest assignment.

Wet form: She has a heavy track win in a Listed race earlier in her career, but has raced inconsistently on wet tracks throughout her career. Sometimes she handles it, and sometimes not. She certainly didn’t run well on it in the Doncaster.

Predictions
Carlton House will likely take up the running, with Green Moon on his flank. Le Roi and Silent Achiever should be looking for a handy position, and It’s a Dundeel will be tracking the mare. The others will settle themselves in the back half of the field, and be looking to come with one run.

Track conditions will be key, and this far out it’s hard to know what sort of racing surface we’ll be presented with. How will the traffic of last week’s meeting combined with the weather fluctuations affect proceedings?

Selections
Dead – 1. Silent Achiever 2. Carlton House 3. Green Moon 4. It’s a Dundeel

Slow – 1. Silent Achiever 2. It’s a Dundeel 3. Royal Descent 4. Carlton House

Heavy – 1. Royal Descent 2. Silent Achiever 3. Sacred Falls 4. It’s a Dundeel