With Ewen McKenzie announcing his Wallabies squad on Thursday for the upcoming Tests against France, there is plenty of speculation around who’ll be selected.
Should McKenzie be picking a squad with players based on who he expects to play in the 2015 Rugby World Cup? Should this squad be used to develop a team for the Bledisloe and Rugby Championship Tests coming up later in the year?
Or should it be selected to win the series against France?
If you think the focus should be on the French series, you’ll probably think that the more experienced players should be selected – given there is very limited preparation time for the squad before the first Test.
If you think the focus should be on next year’s World Cup, you may think that a fair number of new players who’ve shown potential should be introduced now to allow time for them to develop within an international setup.
If you think the focus should be on the two Bledisloe Tests this year, you may think that the French series should be used to mix and match to see who really are the best options.
McKenzie doesn’t have the luxury of choosing one or even two of those options – he’s got to juggle all three. There’s no way that the ARU or Australian rugby fans would be prepared to underachieve in the French series in return for a potential gain at some point in the future.
Let’s consider the makeup of the initial 32-man squad. There will be a starting fifteen selected plus a full backup team so there’s a replacement for every position, plus two extras for the specialist positions halfback and hooker. That makes seventeen forwards and fifteen backs.
That squad makeup will allow the starting team to practice against a competitive fifteen and that will be very important in the preparation to simulate match scenarios.
Given the limited preparation time available, the training sessions are unlikely to be used for selection purposes. The starting team will already be known when the team arrives in camp.
The team assembles on Sunday June 1. Fortunately none of the players have to travel back from South Africa after playing for their respective Super Rugby teams and none of those matches are being played on the Sunday – the Force and Waratahs are both playing in New Zealand that weekend while the Reds, Brumbies and Rebels are all playing in Australia.
With players having played a Super Rugby match that weekend, the amount of training that can be done on Monday will be limited to allow for recovery time. Only limited physical work will be undertaken.
The Friday before the Test match is used for the Captains Run, but no other real field work.
That leaves three days of on-field training to prepare the team for the first Test – none of that limited time will be wasted on considering players for selection in the starting team, although some bench spots may be decided on Tuesday.
Monday will be used to walk through game plans, structures and set-piece combinations. The players will be coming from different teams who use different game plans that they’ve been practicing and playing with for six months, so there is a lot to learn or re-familiarise themselves with in one day before on-field training commences.
As a result there are likely to be very few changes to the game plans and structures used on the end of year tour last year, to minimise the learning that has to be done. McKenzie would therefore want to have as many of the team that played together on that tour starting the first Test.
One of those players would have been Quade Cooper, but with his injury the Wallabies now have even more work to do to integrate a new playmaker into the side. Existing combinations are therefore very important – if Cooper had been fit I’ve no doubt the inside backs would have been Will Genia, Cooper and Matt Toomua.
However, with Cooper out the first decision to be made in team selection will be the fly-half, as the team will have to be rebuilt around that player. Starting with a new fly-half will increase the amount of time required to form combinations which greatly increases the chances of Toomua being selected in that position. He played some Tests in that position last year for the Wallabies and when Cooper left the field.
I can’t see either Kurtley Beale or Bernard Foley starting at fly-half as that would be starting from scratch and there just isn’t time to do that.
If that is the case it won’t surprise me at all if we see the Brumbies inside backs selected – Nic White, Toomua and Christian Lealiifano.
However, Genia is so much more experienced in international rugby that he may still be preferred over White.
Given the limited preparation time, you’ll see the core of players who played on last year’s end of year tour selected.
Both Adam Ashley-Cooper and Tevita Kuridrani have played at number thirteen within the existing structures so either could secure that position.
Israel Folau is the certainty at fullback as is Michael Hooper at number seven.
Nic Cummins needs no introduction to the team, nor does Scott Fardy, so will both start.
In the front row James Slipper, Stephen Moore and Ben Alexander already have an established combination so they will hit the ground running.
Keeping one eye on next year’s World Cup will mean that Ben Mowen and Kane Douglas aren’t selected in the starting team. A new lineout caller in Rob Simmons will be installed.
James Horwill and Scott Higginbotham would be obvious choices to start as they are familiar with Simmons’ calling – that would mean Fardy is the only player who needs to get used to a new caller.
The limited preparation and disruption caused by Cooper’s absence may mean that the only significant decisions to be made in the starting fifteen are halfback, outside centre and one wing spot. If Kuridrani is selected at thirteen (which I suspect he will be) Ashley-Cooper will fill that wing spot.
The bench positions offer the opportunity to bring in new players or to reintroduce others such as Kurtley Beale, but don’t be surprised if there aren’t as many changes to the starting team as many are predicting.
Mike
Guest
Hi Scott, we will have to agree to disagree that "you pick the best you’ve got to handle a role", when that role is just one facet of forward play and there are potentially several people who can do it. I personally don't rate Simmons so far ahead of his peers at calling as Lealiifano was at goal-kicking at that particular time, but of course others may differ on that. I do agree that the "only three days" point is a good excuse - but not one that can be continually re-used... ;)
Ignoramus
Guest
What about Jones at 6? In my view the Wallabies weakness had traditionally been the set piece and the breakdown. This is why as good as Jones has been I would be inclined not to pick him at lock but instead consider him head to head against fardy. At lock you would have to have Simmons for the lineout. However, the Rebels scrum has looked particularly good especially since Pyle has swapped with Neville. For that reason I would consider Neville for tighthead lock. I just think we can sacrifice a bit of ball running in the locks as that can be handled by Moore, hooper, Slipper, whoever they pick at 8, and Jones if they select him.
cashead
Roar Rookie
You can also bet your house on Palu getting injured at some point during or before the test series, resulting in either Higginbotham or McCalman getting the 8 jersey as well.
linz22
Guest
Really don't understand all the talk about Beal making the side. He may have some attacking flair and make a couple of good plays each game, but he is a liability in defence and looks like he is going to be held up every time he enters contact. Think he is a 15 but Folau is better. I would really like to see Horne given a go for the waratahs, and therefore can't understand the Beal wallabies talk at all. Really hope link goes with Foley at 10 as i think Tomua is a great 12 and Foley is more creative and unpredictable.
bobby
Guest
about as good as recent selections in the back three from link....
30mmtags
Guest
Love your style Jiggles. Keep repelling those Cyclops south of the Tweed.
bobby
Guest
why is it time to ditch slipper? and in favour of sio? sio gets destroyed in scrums compared to slipper
Jack
Guest
And how did that work out. The mantra that good Super form does translate to tests might be true but for sure poor super form does. One of the reasons that the Reds are where they are is their locks are losing the impact.
Bledisloe type of guy
Guest
Team 1. Vs. Team 2 15-folau. vs. 15-beale 14-mogg. Vs. 14-shipperley 13-cooper. Vs. 13-kuridrani 12-lilo. Vs. 12-tapua 11-cumins. Vs. 11-morahan 10-toomua vs. 10-foley 9-genia. Vs. 9-white 8-palu. Vs. 8-higgers 7-hooper. Vs. 7-hodgson 6-fardy. Vs. 6- mcalman 5-horwill. Vs. 5-jones 4-simmons. Vs. 4-neville 3-alexander. Vs. 3-ryan 2-moore. Vs. 2-polonatu 1-slipper. Vs. 1.sio 16-charles. vs. 16-fa ainga 17-robinson. Vs. 17-longbottom 18-daley. Vs. 18-cowan 19-pyle. Vs. 19-skelton 20-gill. Vs. 20-fa ainga 21-phipps. Vs. 21-frisby 22-harris. Vs. 22-fa ainga 23-davies. Vs. 23-horne Best out of 3
Short-Blind
Guest
Excellent points James totally agree with these selections. Fardy has been fantastic in the last 12 months and plays like a kiwi dog - we need more of them...I bet he didn't go to a private school :) Who is your loose forward replacement? Hodgson, Dennis? I actually like what I've seen from Cottrell this year - another kiwi mould type player.
Louie
Guest
Ka? Simmons is playing better (work rate and impact) and more constantly than Horwell, Jones/Skelton joining Simo starting at some point. I won't be surprised if EMac sticks with Simon/Horwell combo for 1st test. As Scott said both will see action during the French series.
Short-Blind
Guest
I like Moore too but something must be missing - White last year at the Ponies and no Wallaby coach in the last 5 years has considered him C material....Why is that? He must be missing something I think from those who know him close up?? Hooper is my choice. The Pockock argument is BS IMO as even if he came back to his old form (which is doubtful given his injury) then that would still not be good enough to shift Hooper from 7 given what he has produced in the last 18 months....and with improvement to come. Horwill is a shot duck as a captain - never been a smart one IMO. Emotional guy who give it his all but can't think clearly in time of crisis and is almost too passionate in terms of how it effects his thinking 'in the moment'. He needs to read Richie McCaw's book to get some insights into leadership.
Louie
Guest
Sykes is not up to test standard, journeyman at best.
Short-Blind
Guest
I like your thinking Luke - because this is a bunch of abrasive bastards - just what we need to beat the All Blacks. Unless we confront them and put them out of their comfort zone we will not win. Simple.
Short-Blind
Guest
good call Ads
Rebels without a cause
Guest
Who would you pick instead?
Louie
Guest
Hee, hee, here, won't you be shocked and appalled when Palu the premier 8 in Australia is sensationally named at 8, as he most certainly will be. You can put your house on it....Higgers on the bench covering 8 & 6. He may get the nod over Fardy at 6 but I doubt it.
Short-Blind
Guest
Thanks BB - I agree that if anyone knows how to tell a good 10 it's 'the shadow'. Toomua is good at 12 but being an ex 10/12/15 I can tell you there is big difference in each position and most people cannot master more than one. I'm just looking for as much stability as possible and Toomua in the back line last year was great......and Foley is closer to QC in than any of the others. For Quadey below - I said he knows the 'calls' (which he does as the understudy last year) and that he had game time. OK it was 5 minutes but as Jez said he created that play by being daring and direct in his own 22. Could you see toomua doing that? As the kiwis are saying - the same old same old will not win us the Bledisloe......we need to have a go with some new blood.
JDP
Guest
Agreed - he is rubbish, I can't believe it watching him carry the ball up sometimes. For a guy his size he submits at the contact zone pretty much everytime. He needs to watch a guy like Kaino to see how to use his bulk to carry the ball OVER the advantage line (ie not just drop at the advantage line).
Jiggles
Roar Guru
"I’d consider it Rob because lineout aside, he’s a worry. He drops balls, misses tackles, gives away needless penalties, has no great running game etc." Considering this statement just isn't supported by the facts (He has the best tackle completion rate, and second best metres per run of any Australian lock), I can only conlcude you're wilfully ignorant or a flat out mor0n.