Sunday night Origin is the way forward for NRL

You’re never going to have a completely fair NRL draw when teams don’t play each other the same amount of times.

So the people that say “let’s kill teams so we can!” can just go crawling back to your post-Super League mass-culling fantasy land.

And for those that talk about having an extended 30-round regular season so we can make the draw equal, come back and pitch it after you’ve survived at least one body crunching NRL match.

The draw isn’t fair. Get used to it. Your tears won’t change anything.

So why am I bringing this up? Because every year I have to read or listen to what feels like a thousand people bemoaning the impact of State of Origin. Call me one thousand and one then.

State of Origin impacts the NRL competition, thanks for the scoop. But before you talk about standalone weekends, shortening the NRL season, shifting it post season or, god-forbid, axing Origin, have a think about some of these numbers-

• The three game series is valued at close to $100 million
• One in four Australians will watch it on television
• Twenty per cent of the NRL’s $1 billion TV broadcast deal is credited to Origin’s appeal

The reason why the NRL hasn’t acquiesced to your demands is simple: they don’t want to derail the gravy train. And before you get on your high horses about money being the root of all evil, remember that’s the same money that eventually filters down and grows the game at grassroots level.

So let’s examine the suggestions.

Would Origin have the same appeal post-season?
Maybe, but it’s also after interest in the sport has already peaked.

Then again, I don’t expect good management to make $100 million gambles. Everything comes down to risk and cost-benefit analysis.

Even without polling and crunching the hard numbers, I see that move being quite hazardous, even irreparable if it goes sour.

Would axing Origin be smart?
Go directly to jail. Do not pass Go. Do not collect $200.

Would shortening the NRL season be smart?
Again, consider a whole-of-the-game approach. If you work less hours and make less product, you’ll have less money to grow the game.

I believe – and I suspect that NRL management would be of a similar opinion – that in Australia’s competitive sporting environment it is unwise for a sport to be willfully contracting its influence.

Should Origin be reduced to a three-week period?
The games benefit from the promotion and word of mouth achieved over the extended media period. Condensing that down to three weeks reduces the amount of exposure and would have a negative impact on the sport’s overall popularity.

Would standalone weekends work?
At the moment the NRL takes a hit to about six to eight rounds (before and after) in order to maximise the benefits from State of Origin. Given the already lengthy regular season, I don’t believe pushing Round 1 back into the heat of February would be wise.

If three rounds were to vanish, you take a hit to the hip pocket and the sport’s overall status.

And for what benefit? It won’t make Origin any bigger and it won’t bring fairness to what will still remain an unfair draw. Plus it will just allow other competing sports to schedule big games on those vacant days. The NRL may as well just write them a cheque.

As much as I support international rugby league, claiming that the Australian sporting public will instead turn out en masse for Samoa versus Fiji is spurious at best. I’d rather see the post-season turned into a proper eight-week worldwide international window, where such games would be the highlight and not in Origin’s shadow.

So is there a better way?

Before the NRL takes drastic steps like culling Origin or the NRL season, they should reconsider Sunday night State of Origin.

It has the same numbers of games, played at the same time of year, the lowest overall risk and would reduce affected NRL rounds down to only the three weekends it’s played on.

This is a compromise to reduce overall negative impact for positive gain. When the league expands to 18 teams this could effectively be just one split round – three games on the three weekends (Friday, Saturday, Sunday afternoon) with every team affected equally.

The impact on State of Origin would be minimal. Even on Wednesday nights other networks have tried to throw their best up against it and failed. Sunday nights would be no different – it would actually mean a slightly larger overall potential audience.

Event television in prime-time ratings season will continue to attract event audiences.

If Monday night football is cancelled in the lead-up to Origin matches and squads are announced after the last Sunday match, it still allows a full week for camps – and it means the NRL round prior is unaffected.

Crowds and television numbers for those other three rounds should increase, and it allows the NRL to schedule big matches for the Queen’s Birthday long weekend.

This is the option with the lowest risk. If the NRL really is open-minded they should just trial it, preferably after the mighty Blues win their next series.

So to the whingers, take comfort in knowing that it might be a while.