Super Rugby Expert tips: Round 16

Another quality round of tipping from the Experts, thankfully, with our fifth perfect round in the last seven weeks, which also catapulted Elisha straight to the top of the leaderboard.

Am I disappointed I couldn’t hold onto my lead? Goodness no – frankly I’m surprised I led as long as I did.

Nevertheless, the pressure’s on EP now, as we see who will wear the yellow jersey over the June international recess.

On the guest tipster front, both El Gamba and Diggercane had the same combination as EP, and thus snared perfect rounds for themselves too.

They also left our previous guest tipper, Scotty Stevenson, well behind with his measly 6 from 8, and so probably won’t be invited back again anytime soon. No one likes a show-off, boys!

Elisha obviously has the honour this week, and here are the tips for Round 16.

Elisha Pearce
Tips: Crusaders (P/P), Highlanders, Waratahs, Hurricanes, Brumbies, Bulls, Sharks.

Explain yourself: The view from the top is… ahh, don’t look down, EP! Right, let’s see if I can get through this week’s tips without losing balance up on this tightrope.

The Crusaders escaped Forsyth Barr Stadium with a classic win by an unmeasurable distance – literally, by a ball planted simultaneously on the try line and sideline. This week they will beat the Force by a measurable distance – a Powerplay distance, in fact.

The Reds snapped a three-game losing streak at home last outing against the Rebels. Unfortunately for them – especially in Will Genia’s 100th match – the Highlanders will make them start a new one this week. (Steady as she goes on Friday night.)

The Waratahs will start fast enough to hold off the Chiefs, who will grind into contention the longer their match goes. (I think I’m starting to wobble up here.) The Hurricanes beat the champs by 37 last week, so I have to pick them but the Blues at home are a possible banana skin. (The thin air might be getting to me…)

The Brumbies will pound the Rebels in a welcome return to the W column, and getting home to Canberra where Jesse Mogg and Nic White can pepper the sideline from memory will help. (Brett’s note: Mogg’s going to have to do that from the bench…)

Which South African team returning home from Australasia will drop a match this weekend? I’m betting the Lions, with the Bulls running riot for the second week in a row.

The Sharks will have a stern test in Durban against the Stormers but they’ll get the job done – if it gets close, they’ll have someone carded and rip the game away while they’re down a man. (Did I survive for a week on Mount Roar Tipping? I feel a little light-headed, maybe it’s all the away-game fumes.)

Paddy Effeney
Tips: Crusaders, Highlanders, Waratahs, Hurricanes, Brumbies, Bulls, Sharks (P/P).

Explain yourself: I’m going against the grain of public knowledge this week and going heavy on the away teams. My home teams are bankers: The Sharks against the Stormers, the Brumbies to thump the Rebels, and the Crusaders to get over the Force in a tight one.

Make no mistake, none of these are easy games, and I’m nervous about a tired Sharks and motivated Force.

The Bulls get my tip over the Lions at altitude. The Hurricanes should continue their tidy run against the Blues, with Lam, Leiua and Savea – probably my three favourite players to watch in Super Rugby – cutting sick. Again.

I’m a ‘Tahs believer, and think they can get it done against the Chiefs. Unfortunately, I can’t believe in the Reds, especially with the problems at 10 without Quade Cooper. The Highlanders should get up there.

The Sharks get a very nervous powerplay vote from me.

Spiro Zavos
Tips: Crusaders (P/P), Highlanders, Waratahs, Hurricanes, Brumbies, Bulls, Sharks.

Explain yourself: I am going again in this round on form. This means that I will pick the Waratahs to beat the Chiefs at home, or at New Plymouth. The Chiefs look shot to me, even though in the past they have come back from similar situations and stormed on.

The only niggling aspect about writing them off is the impact that the return of Aaron Cruden will have on their play. For me, though, the Waratahs are playing with the confidence and skills of a group that believe they are destined for higher honours.

My powerplay is on the Crusaders to beat the Force. The Force are not a strong travelling side and the Crusaders are unbeatable at Christchurch.

Scott Allen
Tips: Crusaders, Highlanders, Chiefs, Hurricanes, Brumbies, Bulls (P/P), Sharks.

Explain yourself: A very interesting round – the only match where I see a definite result is the Bulls over the Lions so I’ll use my power play there.

The teams that should win based on a combination of form and in some cases home advantage are the Crusaders over the Force, the Highlanders over the Reds, the Hurricanes over the Blues, the Brumbies over the Rebels and the Sharks over the Stormers.

However, form and consistency has been hard for most teams to maintain week to week, so the upsets could continue in any of those matches.

The hardest of all is the Chiefs against the Waratahs. The Waratahs are in the better form but the Chiefs are at home (or close to it). This could be a defining match for both teams – if the ‘Tahs lose they may open the door for the Brumbies again while if the Chiefs lose they may miss the finals so I’m expecting a tremendous contest.

I’ll tip the Chiefs to fire and win in front of their home fans.

Biltongbek
Tips: Crusaders, Reds, Chiefs, Hurricanes, Brumbies, Bulls (P/P), Sharks.

Explain yourself: Crusaders to milk the Force. Reds will at last come up with the goods, as their home record is one of the best.

Hurricanes versus Blues will be a high-scoring match with the Hurricanes structures being too good (who would have thought someone would ever say that?) Brumbies to trump the Rebels. The Bulls, with my powerplay, to go for the bonus-point win against the Lions.

Stormers have been playing some positive rugby the past few weekends, but the Sharks will be happy to be home and perform for their home crowd, plus their pack will simply be too good.

Chiefs versus Waratahs to be the match of the weekend, Waratahs still need to prove they can win away from Australia, and they will experience the wrath of a Chiefs team still desperate to make the finals.

Tristan Rayner (live from New York)
Tips: Crusaders, Highlanders, Waratahs, Hurricanes, Brumbies, Bulls (P/P), Sharks.

Explain yourself: Tristan tells us he’s too busy for an explanation this week. I presume that’s because he’s trying to master the NYC subway, in order to fulfil his promise and put Elisha’s name up in lights at Madison Square Garden. ‘Legend Tippers’ deserve the best!

Brett McKay
Tips: Crusaders (P/P), Highlanders, Chiefs, Hurricanes, Brumbies, Bulls, Sharks.

Explain yourself: Right then, here’s a confession. Last week I got two tips wrong – the Highlanders and Chiefs – which were in direct contradiction to my predictions and projections done weeks back. That’s right, I had the tips right a month ago, and promptly ignored them.

So this week I have stuck solid on those initial predictions, to the letter. Until I realised I was going against two of the more impressive winners last week, the Waratahs and the Hurricanes. I also had four away teams, which breaks a golden rule of mine never to have more than three away picks each week.

Therefore, some logical thinking was required. The Highlanders and Bulls will be too good for the Reds and Lions, respectively; hence, one of the Waratahs and Hurricanes had to go.

If the Hurricanes can win in Christchurch, they can certainly win in Auckland, where their record isn’t too shabby. The Waratahs, on the other hand, lost their only game in New Zealand this season, and furthermore, haven’t won over the ditch since the introduction of the conference format.

And the Chiefs are unbeaten in New Plymouth! And Aaron Cruden’s back at 10. That’s enough, for the purposes of this exercise.

Crusaders get the Powerplay.

The summary