This Welsh team does not truly believe they will beat the Springboks in South Africa.
I have been reading excellent articles from Wales; they have some of the best referees, commentators, writers, and knowledgeable fans.
It’s clear they are building a number of alibis for an 0-2 series loss.
In the aftermath, we will see terms like ‘brave’, ‘unlucky’, ‘close’, ‘narrow’, ‘flattering score’ and ‘moral victory’. Warren Gatland will bemoan schedules and injuries, and perhaps a few calls on mauls and the breakdown.
But there are five real reasons Wales will continue to add to more than a century of rugby futility in South Africa.
1. Wales are touring without a specialist openside flanker
Sam Warburton is injured and Aaron Shingler is going to try to rule against the Springbok breakdown committee of Bismarck du Plessis, Francois Louw, and Duane Vermeulen.
If the Welsh could break the Bok line a dozen times, perhaps complete ten offloads, and beat South Africa’s highly committed scramble defence, then this would not be such a worry. But the ball will go to ground, the contact area will be full of immovable South Africans, and the physicality of the Boks over the ball will make the lack of a true Welsh 7 apparent.
Look for Louw and Bismarck – and even Frans Steyn and Bryan Habana – to slow down Welsh ball in a way that Southern Hemisphere players are masters of.
2. Wales will not get in behind South Africa enough
Even if the Welsh could obtain plenty of clean, quick ball – and this will be hard to come by, won largely by big strike runners like Jamie Roberts, who will need to find the seam between Frans Steyn and the Bok flyhalf – there is a speed deficit for Wales to overcome.
South Africa’s back three will not be done by Alex Cuthbert or George North. In fact, Wales may find themselves chasing Cornal Hendricks, Habana and Willie le Roux, after the Boks explore the middle channels with Willem Alberts, Frans Steyn, and Vermeulen.
3. There just won’t be enough chances to score tries
Ruthless finishing and scoring is the main difference between Wales and South Africa.
The last time they played, capitalising on the shaky return of Jaque Fourie to the 13 channel, Jon Davies made two clean breaks to start the Test, deep in the Bok half, from which Wales harvested six points. South Africa had a sniff of a couple of chances and scored seventeen points. Of course it was not over, but it was a huge deficit for Wales from there.
In Durban, the Bok midfield will not hand the Welsh line breaks in the first 15 minutes. In fact, Wales will have to work very hard to find space. Then they will have to make perfect choices to exploit them.
4. Wales break the rules too much
South Africa will punish Wales if they infringe from 55 metres in and the Dragons gave up 59 penalties in the Six Nations.
The scrum may be an area where both sides are guessing and hoping, but at the breakdown, the lack of a real opensider may cause others to try their hands at the pilfering or slowing arts, and give South Africa nine or twelve free points.
5. Wales cannot disturb South Africa’s lineout enough
Victor Matfield, Bakkies Botha, Alberts, Vermeulen and super-sub Schalk Burger will keep almost all Bok lineout ball safe, and maybe steal a few from Wales.
Or do I have it all wrong?
Harry Jones
Guest
I agree; the bench looks good
Fatty Robinson
Guest
He is also a vastly overrated player and his absence will be a blessing in disguise for the Boks.He cannot jink nor sidestep and kicks too much.
Garth
Guest
Well, they ARE the Qantas Wallabies.....
Garth
Guest
At least Hollywood didn't include totally irrelevant American characters and make them solely responsible for the successful defense.
Colin Kennedy
Roar Guru
Gotta agree with you Mr G, I think HM was irresponsible to play him for a non-test game.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
2 years ago down here the Wallabies were a rabble that lost to Samoa and Scotland. Wales are coming up against a side with a 27 match 25 win 1 draw 1 loss record against them. The way the Boks played in the second half of the World XV game last week should see them in good form for this one
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
They played Eastern Province, a currie cup side and notched a 34-12 win
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
Shame they can't call on Pollard as he is busy with the junior world cup. The guy is the future for the Springboks
Jerry
Guest
If they were called the "Super Cool Wallabies" and "Mega All Blacks" (sponsored by Kim Dotcom), perhaps you might have a valid comparison.
Rexthegod
Guest
HI HARRY - No, you have it right. Wales have a great front row but after that injuries have weakening the team. In addition, North has a virus and if he starts he won't be Captain Marvel. Great to see Steenkamp back in the team, but Mtawarira is bound to come on at the 50 mark. You guys have such interesting subs - I want to see Brits and Burger and Goosen get onto the field. Would have wanted Goosen to start but I think Meyer is thinking about those three pointers. But they'll be five pointers too with JP and Serfontein in the midfield, Bryan and Hendricks on the edges and Le Roux at 15. What a great back three.
ChrisT
Guest
It was an English regiment which also had a recruitment station in the Brecon Beacons, hence it had a few Welsh in the ranks. More like a Lions team. That's Hollywood for you ....
Harry Jones
Expert
Howzit, BB. Any idea why we have Gurthro starting instead of your guy?
Harry Jones
Expert
Frans Steyn has all the skill a 12 or 15 needs. He just has too many donuts in his belly.
Charl
Guest
Having a bit of a bad day, Oz? Or just missing the odd kangaroo?
Wales played the Kings (devoid of their super xv players) last night and beat them 32-12
Charl
Guest
CR vinnig is right, blitsvinnig without a z Lame as opposed to Wallabies, right, or lame as opposed to All Blacks, Jerry?
Harry Jones
Guest
BB, looks like Frans is negotiating with SARU, but both sides are playing it cool. $$$
Edi2000
Guest
Hi guys apparently Frans has a monetary issue with Saru and the way his contract with them is set out. He will be back for the Sharks after June and then off to Japan to make as much money before his knees give in. Suppose just being a Springbok is not enough these days! Anyway Serfontien will replace him with JP on his outside which worries me intensly as that will be a brand new pairing and I'm still not convinced that JP is a 13 at test level regardless of his class.
Harry Jones
Guest
I think the issue was money. It will come clear soon...but yes, Frans needs to be right at 105 kg.
ozinsa
Guest
More to the point, does it really matter? Has there ever been an international 12 with less core skills? Catching...mmmm; Kicking...yes indeed; Tackling....Loves it; Passing...oops, missed that class; Evasion....what? There are four better 10/12 options running around in SA Super sides who don't get off on attempting 55m drop goals and do core back skills well. If people leaving forces HM to pick the right players then let's encourage Victor, Bakkies, Morne etc to get on their bikes. Well actually, as an Australian, I hope he continues to pick his Bulls and SA is constrained in a time warp whilst their talent leave to find somewhere they can play lots of rugby.