The All Blacks managed to wrap up the series against England last Saturday night, winning the second Test under the roof at Forsyth Barr in Dunedin. The final score was 28-27 in another absorbing contest.
We now look forward to the third and final Test this Saturday in Hamilton.
This could possibly be one of the more exciting and anticipated dead rubbers in recent times – although a Test match, in my view at least, is always important.
England will be incredibly disappointed to have not won at least one game after two very solid displays. They will be arguably even stronger come the third Test with the assumption that many of their regular first stringers such as Courtney Lawes, Dylan Hartley and Mako Vunipola will be on the starting list for Hamilton.
They will not want to leave New Zealand without a Test victory and I sense this team is incredibly focussed, determined and capable of achieving that goal.
The All Blacks will know this and will be motivated to ensure this does not happen. But how will Steve Hansen approach his team for this weekend?
With the series now won, will Hansen afford opportunities to some of the fresher faces in the squad or will he simply pick the tried and tested in pursuit of a clean sweep?
The forward pack in this series have been good in my opinion, our set piece has been very solid across both games. Some may have noticed that I was tracking the set piece on the Roar’s live blog from Saturday night and this was mostly in response to many criticisms directed at our scrummaging from the previous Test, myself included.
Roarer Sam Taulelei actually pointed out to me last week that in fact the perception regarding our scrum was misguided and upon review found he was right. We more than held our own and this continued into the second Test with another solid display.
The only blemish was one scrum where the English dominated towards the end of the match. Our lineout was also particularly satisfying, where the All Blacks secured all of their throws and snaffled two off England’s.
If there was one gripe regarding the scrums it was that we did concede two penalties and a free kick at scrum time to England’s solitary one and while those decisions are perhaps debatable, as many decisions in rugby seem to be these days, I am sure Hansen would want to see an improvement on that score on Saturday.
The work rate of the pack has been excellent around the field and while there have been times where New Zealand have been dominated in contact, they have had the composure and stamina to weather the storm and work their way back into the match, the second half in Dunedin a perfect example of this.
So is this really the time to make a few changes to the pack? Wyatt Crockett has been in great form and perhaps deserves a start and I would be interested to see how Patrick Tuipulotu would fare however with the promise of England’s best available starting team on tour I would not change the tight five.
One change that I would like to see made is to the loose forwards and that would be Victor Vito to start at eight with Jerome Kaino moving to blindside.
This could be considered tough on Liam Messam who has done nothing wrong but appears to short of his best.
Victors form has been compelling and deserves an opportunity and the additional physicality he has introduced to his game this season could be invaluable in seeking out an improved start to the match.
This is all said of course on the assumption that Kieran Read will not be available again this week.
Outside of Read, my gut feeling is that Hansen will not make any changes to the forward pack this weekend as I expect they will be challenged to put in a full eighty minute performance after being mostly outgunned in the first half last Saturday, particularly in contact.
With the backs, I would also expect minimal changes; the biggest talking point revolves around whether the exciting Malakai Fekitoa will be afforded his first Test start or perhaps the safer option of the reliable Ryan Crotty in Conrad Smith’s injury-enforced absence?
I personally hope Malakai is awarded is first Test start if for my own selfish reasons of seeing him, Ma’a Nonu and Julian Savea in the same backline. That is an exciting prospect.
The back division should remain the same and while on that I don’t believe there should be any doubt that Ben Smith is the best fullback in New Zealand and must surely be ahead in of Israel Dagg in the current pecking order.
The only other change I would make would be to see Beauden Barrett start this weekend.
His form this season has been outstanding and while we have seen Aaron Cruden improve steadily through the series I believe Barrett can really get our backline moving forward and is a greater threat to the English defence with his speed and passing game.
So the three changes I would like to see this weekend are Vito to eight with Kaino to blindside and Messam to the bench, Barrett in for Cruden in a straight swap and Fekitoa in for the injured Conrad Smith with Crotty to the bench.
I believe my proposed changes would really add to the current team, particularly in terms of speed and physicality. They would be the right players to really kick start the match in a positive fashion and provide the catalyst for the often sought after 80-minute performance.
My suspicion, however, is there will be no changes to this week’s team outside of injuries as Hansen will want to secure this series 3-0 at home.
Considering the strength of the likely English starting team this week, I wouldn’t blame him one bit.
Digby
Roar Guru
Haha! :D Been waiting for that ;)
Common Sense
Guest
Called it. :)
Digby
Roar Guru
Yip, conservative selections. Personally dissapointed for Vito and Barrett but hard to quibble really. Hope Read is good to go and gets through the game with no further issues.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
So, Fekitoa and Read to start. Cruden retains his starting spot and Messam drops to the bench at the expense of Vito. Here's hoping Read goes better than McCaw did when they brought him back to face Argentina in 2004. Fekitoa's going to have a hell of a job marking Tuilagi, and I'm sure England will target our midfield. Given that they've outpointed Smith and Nonu, they'll look to have the upper hand there.
JimmyB
Guest
Those 'English Orcs' are smaller than their black counterparts.
DC-NZ
Guest
Why is everyone so hard on Liam Messam? He throws himself into the tight, stood up against the English Orcs, and hurls himself into the ruck and maul. I think he is unfairly maligned. And remember, he scored two tries at Ellis Park last year, in that epic clash.
Old Bugger
Guest
CW yeah because he was the only back captain in like 50zillion years......unbelievable why most captains eventually come from the big blokes. Still as the old adage goes - backs cant perform unless they have the ball...so who wins the ball??
Old Bugger
Guest
CW Tana Umaga turned into a pretty decent OC after playing all his previous rep & test rugger at wing?? If the player has the skills as a winger, then it isn't that difficult to switch to an OC......surely?? B Smith's change was more difficult because he was used to open field running rather than running tram-lines like an OC or winger against set defence patterns.
RobC
Roar Guru
He would be trying to find ways to dominate earlier in the game and not rely on 2nd half chase, which has been the case in the past three games. Second, Poms are a great sparring partner / opponent for ABs in set piece. ie solution lies in the forwards and kick chase.
Derek
Guest
Since Hansen's a loyalist at heart, maybe a good combo could be 1. Woodcock 2. Coles 3. Charlie 4. Retaillick 5. Whitelock 6. Messam 7. McCaw 8. Kaino 9. Perenara 10. Barrett 11. Savea 12. Nonu 13. Fekitoa 14. CJ 15. B.Smith 16. Mealamu 17. Crockett 18. Franks 19. Tuipolotu 20. Read 21. Kerr Barlow 22. Cruden 23. Crotty Kaino has been playing well at 8, and my hunch is that if he was 6 he'd have more impact than what we've seen of Messam. It would be harsh if Hansen dropped him though. He hasn't played badly, just not spectacularly. And he played well all last year. Time I think to throw the HBs in the deep end. Smith is our no.1 but the others need the experience at a big game level, plus he was average last week. If Feks starts getting wobbly than Crotty can be a steady head midfield. I think it's time that Beauden had a start though. It's not like he's fresh faced, and arguably he's been the performing flyhalf of Super rugby.
Chan Wee
Guest
@ Old Bugger : Piutau was on the wing of the NZ U20 team of 2011. he was also a back witht he 7S team for a little while. he is ideally a wing / back like Jane and Smith. he has the 7S skills to be a good wing. can cover full back but not a good center i think. the problem is fullback at super is totally different to test rugger :)
Nudgeee
Guest
Don't really care if they are not hitting peak performance individually but I am Salivating at the prospect of McCaw, Read and Jerome on the field at the same time - again.
Chan Wee
Guest
u mean since tana Umaga :D
Chan Wee
Guest
if DC plays after world cup he will be the skipper (assuming the king abdicates after world cup;) ) with Conrad or Messam as deputy. Aaron Cruden , a leader at U20 level and co-captain of Chiefs. he is next in line after Read for long term. Sam W will probably be the deputy. After him, its a toss between U20 captains Luke Whitelock (2011) and Ardie Savea (2013). though Cane and Barrett will be senior,
sesenta y cuatro
Roar Pro
I don't think the coaches will be particularly keen on making many changes. If you saw Hansen's interview about the injury to Conrad Smith, he was clearly annoyed at the news he just got. I think they are all convinced that if they don't put the strongest team to play England they risk losing. And losing is not acceptable by the All Blacks standards Even more so at home. Therefore I think they will stick to the tested and trusted and make as few changes as possible. I don't think Read will start. I don't think Barrett will start. My only question is Crotty or Fekitoa?
ChrisT
Guest
Yeah you too, although I'm sure you'd appreciate, when your team's playing enjoyment only really comes when the whistle blows and you've won - stress, worry, euphoria, dejection, exasperation, disbelief, anger, incredulity, optimism, pessimism, nationalism, nihilism .....but rarely enjoyment .....
Rebel
Guest
Probably best we were moderated as we did sidetrack and I find that annoying on other threads. Not actually confused, just concerned with quality lately. Enjoy the match.
MiB
Guest
Hansen will have his eyes on the 17-game winning streak. The same record-equaling run the ABs squandered in their last dead-rubber attempt, back in 2012. A win is extremely important, less so for the record, more so for the psychological advantage heading into next year's RWC. The injury to Conrad will keep the backline selections conservative. If he'd remained fit, I think we would have seen Barrett starting the 3rd test. I also like Vito for a run-on at 8. Read is surplus and must be 100% fit before returning, we know he's the best in the business and the contenders could use the confidence-building game time to cement the backrow depth. If he's to play, bring him opff the bench against tiring defence. I love Feki, but Hansen knows to tread carefully with his confidence. Crotty is highly under-rated for his distribution game and line-breaking ability, he will provide the outsides with plenty of opportunities. I think Dagg is carrying an injury..? Jane to have a blinder after last week. 1. Woodcock 2. Coles 3. O.Franks 4. Retallick 5. Whitelock 6. Kaino 7. McCaw 8. Vito 9 A.Smith 10. Cruden 11. Savea 12. Nonu 13. Crotty 14. Jane 15. B.Smith 16. Mealamu 17. Crockett 18. Faumuina 19. Tuipulotu 20. Read 21. TJ 22. Barrett 23. Fekitoa
ChrisT
Guest
Rebel, in case you're wondering, our whole thread got moderated when I pointed out the examples you extracted demonstrated indifference - the opposite of offence. I may have also alluded to your confused state of mind ...not exactly the phrase I used .....
Kuruki
Roar Guru
B Smith went from the form player in the world to average joe when they moved him into 13. Never again. He is the All Blacks new number one 15. Crotty is more then capable of playing 13 and Fekitoa is another itching to show what he can do. We don't need to find another Conrad Smith, we just need to find another good All Black 13 whoever it is and however he plays the game.