Do the Wallabies pose a serious threat to the All Blacks?

The mid-year Test series for both the Wallabies and All Blacks concluded, the next time we’ll see both teams in action is the first Bledisloe Cup match for 2014 in Sydney on 16 August.

Rugby in this country needs as much positive press as it can get and a series whitewash against the French, winning seven matches in a row, a capacity crowd at the final Test, the performance of Israel Folau, and the size of the big bloke, Will Skelton, have all contributed to good rugby headlines this week.

The Wallabies were good against France and the squad appears to be developing well.

However, let’s be realistic about the quality of the French opposition – they weren’t anywhere near the level the Wallabies will face against New Zealand and South Africa, or even England later in the year.

The All Blacks weren’t at their best in their series against England, but showed periods of complete dominance. England provided much better quality opposition for them than than the Wallabies faced.

The preposterous suggestion from some in the England media that the All Blacks are in decline was shown to be nothing more than an attention-grabbing headline.

Already this week we’ve seen articles in various outlets, including on The Roar, talking up the prospects of the Wallabies and individual players against the All Blacks this year. Even if there are genuine prospects, I still cringe when people talk up performances before we’ve seen whether the Wallabies can actually deliver.

If you look at the Wallabies’ performance against France from a New Zealand point of view, what are the key areas or key players you’d focus on in preparation?

Here are my six.

1. Israel Folau
One of the biggest threats in world rugby, he’s one of only two Wallabies who are world-class players and the All Blacks will be very focussed on him.

2. Michael Hooper
The other world-class player the Wallabies have poses a big threat for the All Blacks. He isn’t a significant threat in the ruck and the All Blacks will target him physically in this area. However, the All Blacks will be threatened by his speed, his ability to pop up everywhere and his skills in attack – he’ll be heavily marked.

3. The Wallabies’ scrum
The performance against the French scrum was patchy at best. The tighthead side of the scrum continues to be a real weakness for the Wallabies and the All Blacks will target this.

4. Tevita Kuridrani
The Wallabies are building their attack around Kuridrani being able to get the ball over the gain line in the wider channels. If that’s achieved, they can get quick ball and try to catch teams on the back foot on the next phase. The All Blacks will target Kuridrani, knowing if they can neutralise this key element of the Wallabies’ game plan, they’ll revert to Plan B, which involves too much kicking.

5. Nic White
White’s form deteriorated as the French series went on and the All Blacks will target him. If they can put him under pressure, they’ll go a long way to shutting down the Wallabies’ attack and probably force some of the poor kicking we’ve seen from him recently.

6. Rob Simmons
The Wallabies’ lineout is currently too reliant on Simmons. The French were slow to recognise this but targeted him much better in the third Test. The All Blacks are the best in the world in defensive lineouts and they will be all over the Wallabies if they rely too much on Simmons, or any other player. They also know Simmons is the only genuine defensive threat the Wallabies have, so won’t be calling the ball anywhere near him to negate the threat.

Some of you will be suggesting I’ve missed one from my list – Will Skelton. The All Blacks won’t see the need to focus on him at all. He made a good debut against France but the headlines suggesting he’s a superstar or the key to the Wallabies defeating the All Blacks are an over reaction.

Skelton had a number of highlights in the match.

Firstly, his try in the eighth minute, but that was dreadful defence by the French. If he runs without support and high like that against the All Blacks, he certainly won’t be scoring and will likely be driven backwards and see possession turned over.

Secondly, he drove into a French maul in the 33rd minute and made a good impact.

Thirdly, he set up Israel Folau’s try in the 42nd minute, which showed fantastic skills.

It was this last impact on the match that was by far his best. He’s very skilful and I’m sure we’ll see plenty more similar plays for the Wallabies as he’s going to be in the setup for many years to come.

I’m not suggesting he didn’t make a good debut, but those highlights don’t make it anything more than solid. Sam Carter’s was a better overall debut in the first Test of the series.

Wycliff Palu poses much more of a threat to the All Blacks than Skelton does. His game in the third Test against France was the best I’ve seen from him in attack in many years, but while the All Blacks will be aware of what he can do, they won’t see him as a significant threat who needs to be focussed on.

So have we really seen anything from the Wallabies that suggests they pose a serious threat to the All Blacks in 2014? 

I hope I’m wrong, but no, based on what we’ve seen in the last three weeks the Wallabies still need to make significant improvements to challenge the All Blacks.