With the June internationals over for most teams, I thought it would be fun to try and predict what the IRB world rankings might look like in 10 years’ time.
Growth in international rugby has been slow but steady in the last 10 years, however I suspect this to speed up in the next decade. The greatest drivers will be the professional European club competitions, Super Rugby expansion, professional rugby in America and greater investment resulting from the growth of the Rugby World Cup and the inclusion of Sevens as an Olympic sport.
IRB World Rankings 2024
1. England
2. South Africa
3. New Zealand
4. Australia
5. France
I expect the top five teams for most of rugby’s history will still dominate world rugby in 10 years’ time. However I suspect that both England and South Africa will overtake New Zealand. This has started happening at junior level, and I believe it will occur at senior level in coming years.
England have by far the most players and their club academies are now developing hundreds of world class athletes to pick from. Meanwhile, rugby is growing beyond its largely white base in South Africa.
While New Zealand will always be a top team, I think they will lose their position as the perennial number one through sheer weight of numbers. New Zealand rugby’s quality of athlete, level of coaching and professionalism has kept them ahead, but their advantages in these areas are becoming smaller.
The top five will still beat the teams below the majority of the time, but in 10 years there’ll be more teams nipping at their heels than there are today.
6. Argentina
By 2024 Argentina will have been competing in Super Rugby for eight seasons and the Rugby Championship for 12. They’ll be a genuine rugby power with multiple victories over all the teams ranked above them.
7. USA
8. Canada
Rugby is one of the fastest growing sports in the US. Until very recently people only started playing when they went to college. Now there are vibrant youth and high school programs around the country, meaning the American players in 10 years time will have developed their rugby skills from a younger age.
There are several groups looking to start professional competitions in America and by 2024 I expect we will be a few years into a successful league. The USA will be a genuine chance of winning against any opponent.
Canada will benefit from the growth of the professional game in the US and will also be a threat to any top side.
9. Ireland
10. Japan
11. Wales
Japan have just reached number 10 in the IRB rankings for the first time after beating Italy. They will only improve over the next decade. By 2024 I believe it is likely that Japan will be integrated into both Super Rugby and the Rugby Championship and will be around the same level of Ireland and Wales.
While I have their ranking at 10th – the same as now, I believe in a decade they will be truly competitive with every side in the world.
12. Fiji
13. Samoa
14. Algeria
15. Georgia
16. Italy
Algeria is a team that would not be on many people’s radar. They are not currently a full member of the IRB and are therefore unranked. However, there are reportedly around 300 players of Algerian descent in European professional and semi-professional leagues, mostly in France.
Once the Algerian Union receives official recognition by its government and becomes a full IRB member, it could potentially field an entire team of professional players that feature regularly in the top two leagues in France. In 10 years they, along with those grouped with them above, will be a team capable of upsetting a top eight side.
17. Tonga
18. Scotland
I believe Scotland will be around the same level of competitiveness they are now. They’re just going to be overtaken by a few more teams.
19. Kenya
Kenya produces great athletes for rugby, the evidence of which can already be seen in sevens. With a large population and rugby growing in popularity I expect Kenya to improve substantially at 15s in the next 10 years. By 2024 they’ll have a number of professional players scattered throughout South Africa, Europe and America.
20. Russia
While Russian rugby has stagnated since 2011, it does already have a professional club league. The size of the population and economy, as well as the quality of athlete means the IRB will continue to invest significantly. In 10 years I expect them to be at a similar ranking to what they are now. However, 20th in the world in 2024 will be a lot more competitive with the top teams than 20th in the world is in 2014.
The next group of teams will be similar to now, though I expect Brazil to make a significant move up the rankings. By 2024 the likes of Spain, Romania, Brazil, Hong Kong, Belgium, Germany, Chile, Portugal and South Korea will all be competitive tier two nations with potential to upset teams ranked in the lower top 10. I suspect that by 2024 there will be serious talk about moving to a 32-team Rugby World Cup.
What do you think Roarers? Which nations will be the big movers in world rugby over the next 10 years?
Ryan durkin
Guest
Wales was the best in the 1970s
Jay
Guest
There is a lot to base a prediction on. Rugby changes a lot in ten years. You guys say size matters. Yes now days. But I remember in the 2004-2007 era rugby was kick and chase game. Then 2008-2011 it was about speed and now its forward domination. And yes New Zealand are dominating but I agree they will be overtaken... And its not in 10 years. They will be beaten in the 2015 world cup. New zealand aren't high and mighty anymore. My prediction is 1) South Africa 2) England 3) Ireland 4) New Zealand 5) Australia 6) Wales 7) France
Curly-toe-nails
Guest
SA will drop out of the top 10 by 2024. Due to quotas, climate change and a major calamity involving a sinkhole.
Eddard
Roar Guru
Graeme, who said they would go home and play? They would represent Algeria in test rugby. They would live and play professionally in France. It's no different to Samoa, Tonga or Fiji! Basically none of their players live and play in those countries anymore and most of them were born and raised in New Zealand (especially in the case of Samoa and Tonga). And the US has not always had strong grass roots rugby. That is simply false. Until recently the US barely had any juniors. The US doesn't need to attract the best athletes to rugby to be competitive. If they attracted the best athletes to rugby they would dominate world rugby to an extent the All Blacks could only dream of.
The scales of justice
Guest
NM, if you actually watched any of the JWC, it was easy to see the size difference and the effect it had on th game. It looked like men against boys at times. In senior rugby, that size advantage disappears. This is why JWC is not a good indicator of future world dominance.
Matt
Guest
@nek. It wasn't a point exclusively based on size (read properly), and its worth pointing out that size isn't all about weight. Its considered a proxy by most, for a certain style of play and a preference to select types of players who are direct, physical and ball carrying in nature (Vunipola, Tuilagi, Dean Richards etc). I also said they wouldn't get better for cultural and national psyche reasons, not just size. The June series illustrates this.....an English side struggling to come to terms with how they're supposed to playing. And at such a fundamental level its almost sad, if it wasn't so funny to watch unfold. You'll never see this with countries where the culture of a sport is based on flair and talent...Brazil et al. So IMO you're kidding yourself if anything is going to change in the next 20 yrs because of the superfiscial numbers you've thrown up. It is possible for countries to make huge strides, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are great examples in cricket. But they are cricket mad societies, and unless this happens with rugby in the Nth Hemisphere they will NEVER be contenders...aside from the odd flare up for one year in every 20...which is challenging nobody in terms of world domination.
Nek Minnut
Guest
U20 The Eng teams forwards ave 105, NZs 102. The Eng teams backs ave 87, NZs 90. So wheres the big difference? Whos picking size? Seems to me that its pretty even.
Nek Minnut
Guest
Yeah I see that but your comment that they will never get any better is absolute nonsense tbh. How you come to that conclusion is a mystery. NZ, Eng and SA pick a team to win the tourney, not for any other reason.
wardad
Guest
Its not like you will see that entire under 20s team transposed over to the test side in its entirety now is it ? At most a handful of players will make the step up to the National side . The under 20s NZ team is even more of an ad hoc transitional side than other teams .
wardad
Guest
It has been conclusively proven that the Pyramids were NOT built on slave labour [ Charlie Heston didnt design them either ] The pyramids were built by Egyptian villagers supplying the labour in their off season built around a cadre of engineers and other specialists. They were well fed ,housed and all their medical and other needs were taken care of. Kiwis arent Americans ,our patriotism isnt as over the top as theirs indeed its probably not as overt as most countries like say Australia or England ?. Its 2014 and still no decline yet. Time has told already .
wardad
Guest
The god of war may love the big battalions but rugby isnt just about numbers is it ? When you distll everything down you all just get 15 men playing at a time . Rugby is always about quality ,quantity only gives you more choices not necessarily better ones ,look at countries like Malaysia ,India Egypt etc with their huge populations and almost nothing to show for it at the Olympics they just dont have the quality cattle to pick from nor do they have the sporting culture [ sporting prowess is hard to demonstrate when a persons main priority is food and shelter ]
Matt
Guest
New Zealand rugby will not be under serious threat ntil countries like Au and Eng can start attracting their best sporting youngsters to play rugby as their primary choice. Lots of hacks running around on the weekend at the local club is an indicator of how much beer is going to be drunk that night, but little else.
Matt
Guest
Barking up the wrong tree mate
Jerry
Guest
" I believe especially New Zealand is squeaky clean" I'll just quote this bit out of context, if you don't mind. Thanks.
Nek Minnut
Guest
Sorry Aus were 4th in 2009, 2nd in 2010 & 3rd in 2011.
Nek Minnut
Guest
Oz have finished 2nd and 4th since 2008. They are the 4th best at the u20 world champs since 2008. The top 4 performing teams at the u20 level are the top 4 teams at senior level. Like I said, its not a perfect translation but its pretty good considering its just a tourney. P.S. Where did you get that Aus hasnt finised in the top 4? Theyve been in the final Chan.
Graeme Smith
Guest
I agree with that. I really can't the the drastic change in the world order below number 5 that the author can. And some of the selections are just plain naive. Algeria will not be 14 and Scotland 18. The reason there are 300 Algerians playing rugby in France is that their is a huge North African population in France. There are probably a similar number of Tunisians and Moroccans playing rugby there, and they will continue to play rugby in France for economic reasons, there is no money to go home and play. Also US has always had strong grass roots rugby. However the fastest, strongest athletes are always going to go to American football or other sports that pay million dollar salaries, meaning the eagles will always remain weak. The Canadians also have no real catalyst that would change their ranking from where it is now. Basically I expect in ten years time the top five will stay in the top five, the next five to rotate around the next five, and the minnows will stay as minnows.
stillmatic1
Guest
well ive finally figured out who zero gain really is: its got to be greg martin, only that bright spark would say a team who won a one off match was therefore the best!! wallabies beat abs in hk, wallabies will win the world cup..............oops. apparently rankings don't determine who the best is anymore either. so samoa and Scotland are definitely better than the wallabies.
Bakkies
Guest
SA have lost to Argentina and Ireland in recent years to at 20s level.
Matt
Guest
Agree. The Warriors at Toyota Cup vs Senior level are a good example of this.