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With the June internationals over for most teams, I thought it would be fun to try and predict what the IRB world rankings might look like in 10 years’ time.
Growth in international rugby has been slow but steady in the last 10 years, however I suspect this to speed up in the next decade. The greatest drivers will be the professional European club competitions, Super Rugby expansion, professional rugby in America and greater investment resulting from the growth of the Rugby World Cup and the inclusion of Sevens as an Olympic sport.
IRB World Rankings 2024
1. England
2. South Africa
3. New Zealand
4. Australia
5. France
I expect the top five teams for most of rugby’s history will still dominate world rugby in 10 years’ time. However I suspect that both England and South Africa will overtake New Zealand. This has started happening at junior level, and I believe it will occur at senior level in coming years.
England have by far the most players and their club academies are now developing hundreds of world class athletes to pick from. Meanwhile, rugby is growing beyond its largely white base in South Africa.
While New Zealand will always be a top team, I think they will lose their position as the perennial number one through sheer weight of numbers. New Zealand rugby’s quality of athlete, level of coaching and professionalism has kept them ahead, but their advantages in these areas are becoming smaller.
The top five will still beat the teams below the majority of the time, but in 10 years there’ll be more teams nipping at their heels than there are today.
6. Argentina
By 2024 Argentina will have been competing in Super Rugby for eight seasons and the Rugby Championship for 12. They’ll be a genuine rugby power with multiple victories over all the teams ranked above them.
7. USA
8. Canada
Rugby is one of the fastest growing sports in the US. Until very recently people only started playing when they went to college. Now there are vibrant youth and high school programs around the country, meaning the American players in 10 years time will have developed their rugby skills from a younger age.
There are several groups looking to start professional competitions in America and by 2024 I expect we will be a few years into a successful league. The USA will be a genuine chance of winning against any opponent.
Canada will benefit from the growth of the professional game in the US and will also be a threat to any top side.
9. Ireland
10. Japan
11. Wales
Japan have just reached number 10 in the IRB rankings for the first time after beating Italy. They will only improve over the next decade. By 2024 I believe it is likely that Japan will be integrated into both Super Rugby and the Rugby Championship and will be around the same level of Ireland and Wales.
While I have their ranking at 10th – the same as now, I believe in a decade they will be truly competitive with every side in the world.
12. Fiji
13. Samoa
14. Algeria
15. Georgia
16. Italy
Algeria is a team that would not be on many people’s radar. They are not currently a full member of the IRB and are therefore unranked. However, there are reportedly around 300 players of Algerian descent in European professional and semi-professional leagues, mostly in France.
Once the Algerian Union receives official recognition by its government and becomes a full IRB member, it could potentially field an entire team of professional players that feature regularly in the top two leagues in France. In 10 years they, along with those grouped with them above, will be a team capable of upsetting a top eight side.
17. Tonga
18. Scotland
I believe Scotland will be around the same level of competitiveness they are now. They’re just going to be overtaken by a few more teams.
19. Kenya
Kenya produces great athletes for rugby, the evidence of which can already be seen in sevens. With a large population and rugby growing in popularity I expect Kenya to improve substantially at 15s in the next 10 years. By 2024 they’ll have a number of professional players scattered throughout South Africa, Europe and America.
20. Russia
While Russian rugby has stagnated since 2011, it does already have a professional club league. The size of the population and economy, as well as the quality of athlete means the IRB will continue to invest significantly. In 10 years I expect them to be at a similar ranking to what they are now. However, 20th in the world in 2024 will be a lot more competitive with the top teams than 20th in the world is in 2014.
The next group of teams will be similar to now, though I expect Brazil to make a significant move up the rankings. By 2024 the likes of Spain, Romania, Brazil, Hong Kong, Belgium, Germany, Chile, Portugal and South Korea will all be competitive tier two nations with potential to upset teams ranked in the lower top 10. I suspect that by 2024 there will be serious talk about moving to a 32-team Rugby World Cup.
What do you think Roarers? Which nations will be the big movers in world rugby over the next 10 years?
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