SPIRO: Here come Japan and Scotland in new IRB world order

There is one more major Test to come before the international rugby June series, that generally matches northern hemisphere sides against southern hemisphere sides, finishes.

That Test is on the weekend, when South Africa play a resurgent Scotland side.

The main results, however, are in. The latest IRB World Rankings reflect the rise of Japan and Scotland, and the continuing decline of Argentina and Italy.

There are important ramifications for the Rugby World Cup 2015 in England in some of the results over the last few weeks:

1    New Zealand 93.81
2    South Africa 89.34
3    Australia 86.94
4    England 85.68
5    Wales 80.70
7    France 80.01
8    Scotland 77.78
9    Samoa 76.59
10  Japan 75.39
11   Fiji 74.56
12   Argentina 73.98
13   Tonga 72.68
14   Italy 70.92
15   Georgia 70.46
16   Romania 68.42
17   Canada 68.01
18   USA 67.30
19   Uruguay 62.89
20   Russia 62.06

Last weekend, Australia defeated France, New Zealand defeated England, South Africa defeated Wales (just), Samoa defeated Fiji, USA defeated Canada, Japan defeated Italy, and Scotland defeated Argentina.

Nick Easter on Planet Rugby had an interesting discussion on some of these results. He praised the quality of the All Blacks’ performance in the final Test and noted it was “one of the most bitterly disappointing losses of Stuart Lancaster’s tenure.”

The point here about the All Blacks play was that it was cold and wet at Hamilton, “filthy – wet, miserable and nasty!” according to Easter. Despite this, the All Blacks played an expansive game at pace which in the first half, particularly, was absolutely devastating.

The main problems with England right now is that Lancaster does not know what his best starting side is. This reminds me of Graham Henry in Rugby World Cup 2007, where the All Blacks played a different starting XV every game of the tournament up to their defeat in the quarter-final.

England are placing a lot of their hopes on making Twickenham, where the finals of Rugby World Cup 2015 will be played, their fortress for a successful assault on winning the tournament. These are high hopes. There have been seven Rugby World Cup tournaments since 1987, including the 1991 tournament that was hosted by England. New Zealand twice and South Africa once are the only nations that have won their home tournament.

England’s failure to defeat the All Blacks in any of the three Tests and, more importantly, the All Blacks’ ability to solve the problems England confronted them with by the third Test, has given a psychological edge to New Zealand if the two nations met in the finals.

Nick Easter was extremely complimentary of the performance of the Wallabies at Sydney in achieving a three-Test sweep in the seires against France. “Merciless”, “ruthless”, “pace”, “compelling”, and “panache” were some of the words Easter used to praise the Wallabies.

He was critical of French coach Philippe Saint-Andre’s ability to motivate his players and to instil even a “basic rugby discipline” into the DNA of the side. I would note that France tends to play one great game every Rugby World Cup tournament. The team has been in three Rugby World Cup finals. They have lost two of them convincingly (against New Zealand in 1987 and Australia in 1991) and one of them by only one point (against New Zealand in 2011).

There is a feeling though that the tough, exhausting French club championship and the importation of overseas players to do the hard yards at prop and in the play-making positions is taking a toll on Les Bleus. Saint-Andre has this view. It could be that the glory days of French rugby on the international level are coming to an end until the grip of the owners of the top clubs is loosened.

French rugby is a bit like England cricket when the county teams used West Indians to be the fast bowlers and openers. England only started dominating the Ashes series when England contracts were handed out to the best players, making them accountable to the national sides rather than their country clubs. French rugby needs a similar sort of set-up.

Moving away from the Nick Easter analysis (which I used to pacify criticism of a southern hemisphere bias to my analysis) we have the two contrasting Tests played between Wales and the Springboks.

The Springboks were outstanding, especially Willie le Roux, in the first Test. But in the second Test Wales threw away a victory, which would have been their first in South Africa against the Springboks.

Towards the end of the Test they were leading by six points and just outside the Springboks 22; they had the game in the bag with a drop goal. Instead, they dithered around until the Springboks found a way to set up an attack which resulted in Wales giving away a penalty try, for a shoulder charge on winger Cornal Hendricks by Wales fullback Liam Williams as Hendricks was about to score in the corner.

Steve Walsh, the referee with a penchant for refereeing dramatic games, was absolutely right to check and re-check the video to establish the necessity for the penalty try decision.

Wales still had some minutes to get the lead back. They went through phase after phase of one-out plodding just inside the Springboks’ half in the hope of forcing a penalty or an easy shot at drop goal. Only once did they put the ball wide with a couple of passes. The result was that the Springboks line was never broken and Wales finally took their last, failed dropped goal shot from near halfway.

To win a Rugby World Cup tournament, sides have to win matches that are in the balance. The All Blacks in 1987 are the only side that went through a Rugby World Cup tournament without ever being threatened with a loss. Wales does not have this sort of belief or mental toughness. I doubt they will learn the lesson by Rugby World Cup 2015.

This is good news for the Wallabies, for they are in the ‘Pool of Death’ with England and Wales. One of these top sides will not get through to the finals. Right now that side is looking like Wales.

As for the Springboks, they remain hard to defeat, especially in South Africa. But coach Henyeke Meyer is worried aobut the fatigue his players are enduring, especially those players who are playing out of South Africa.

I wonder whether by the Rugby World Cup 2015 tournament other sides will have worked out that Willie le Roux and Bryan Habana are the side’s two main attacking threats.

There has been a lot of talk of the 17-straight Test wins by the All Blacks and the 7-straight by the Wallabies. Japan’s Brave Blossoms took their run of victories to 10 straight after defeating Italy 26-23 at Tokyo. The week before they defeated USA in California 37-29.

Coach Eddie Jones is doing a great job with Japan. In Rugby World Cup 2015, Japan, Scotland and Samoa are all in Pool D. Is this the real Pool of Death? Scotland, with its new New Zealand coach Vern Cotter, have won three Tests in a row, something the team hasn’t achieved for a long time. Samoa are generally a more formidable side at World Cups, if the European clubs are forced to release their players, than outside of the tournament.

Ireland, too, are improving splendidly. They beat the Pumas twice in Argentina, no easy task, and their top five IRB ranking is well deserved. But whether this will be converted into a top performance in the 2015 Cup 2015 is moot. In general, Ireland have performed poorly at Rugby World Cup tournaments, even those played in Europe.

And now for an interesting comparison between Planet Rugby’s and Paul Cully’s Team Of The Week:

There are some interesting and debatable choices in both these teams. What do Roarers think?