The comedown from the June Internationals back into the final rounds of Super Rugby has left me with a funny, part-underwhelming, partly-enthusiastic feeling of what’s ahead.
It’s similar to what †he State of Origin series does to NRL club games.
In the past I didn’t mind the break for the June Tests, followed by the run into the Super Rugby finals, but the high of last year’s British and Irish Lions series, and the positivity coming out of the clean sweep of France this year has made for a rather deflating step.
Therefore, I’m coming around to shifting the international window back into July, allowing the domestic competitions either side of the equator play out to their conclusion. Remove the need for pre-Test camps, for staggered squad arrivals, and for any national team having to field a weakened side because of domestic finals.
That the ‘big five’ rugby nations could have their logical suggestion so quickly dismissed – as Spiro reported recently the Welsh, Irish, and Scottish committee delegates did leading into the June Tests – is even more bewildering.
Anyway, I’ve digressed somewhat. The run home for Super Rugby is here, whether we’re ready for it or not.
I’ve written this type of column a few times in the past, because while the subjects may change, the context and relevance certainly does not. It is a big couple of weeks for a number of teams. That number will almost certainly shrink by the end of the weekend.
Brumbies
The obvious one first. A horror injury toll coming out of the Wallabies’ three Tests against France, and to other non-Test players as well, has exposed some major holes in their squad, and has exacerbated the hurt of the upset loss to the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein in mid-May.
Hooker and captain-in-waiting Stephen Moore is gone for the season, blowing his knee out just three minutes into his first Test as Wallabies captain. Lock Sam Carter was ruled out for upwards of a month after the same Test, and Pat McCabe and Matt Toomua have also been ruled out of the crucial match with the Waratahs in Sydney on Saturday night.
Worse still, winger Joe Tomane remains in severe doubt and third-choice hooker Josh Mann-Rea tore a hamstring in a club game in Canberra last weekend. With number two No.2 Siliva Siliva already out for the season, the Brumbies had drafted in former Force, Tahs, and Rebels journeyman Luke Holmes before the international break, while Ulster-bound prop Ruaidhri Murphy – himself only just back from injury – has been training at hooker in recent weeks, and may start there on Saturday.
What was already a must-win game for last year’s finalists has become that much harder a task. With the bye coming next weekend, there’s a very real risk that a loss at Homebush could put the line through the Brumbies for 2014.
Chiefs, Highlanders, and Western Force
All three teams are precariously perched either side of the top six cut-off, waiting for teams above them to fall, or to pounce themselves.
The Chiefs and Highlanders will be buoyed by the Test form of their respective spearheads; Brodie Retallick, Liam Messam, and Aaron Cruden for the Chiefs, and Ben Smith and Malakai Fekitoa for the Highlanders. Cruden really looked to have hit his straps by the end of the three Tests against New Zealand, and his form more than anyone’s will be crucial if the Chiefs are to go back-to-back-to-back.
Smith and Fekitoa have the potential to break open any game for the Highlanders.
No team will be sweating on the Homebush grudge match more than the Force. Should the Brumbies lose the ‘Hume Highway clash’, a Force win in Perth over the Blues could see them cement their place in the top six and as the second Australian qualifier. The final round match against the Brumbies in Canberra was always shaping as something of a decider, but if things fall their way in the next two rounds, the Force’s place in the finals may already be decided.
Nick Cummins, Ben McCalman, and Pek Cowan all played reasonably well for the Wallabies in the Tests, and though Force skipper Matt Hodgson saw no match time, the playing break could be what re-energises him to continue at the same ridiculously high level he’s been operating this season.
Hurricanes and Crusaders
If the Brumbies were the hardest hit by injuries during the June Internationals, the losses of the equally inspirational Conrad Smith and Richie McCaw could yet have a major bearing on the finals chances for the Hurricanes and Crusaders, respectively.
The Crusaders have had to get used to playing without McCaw over the years, and the return of Kieran Read will lessen the impact.
However, the Hurricanes without their midfield general are far less fearful for opposition sides. So much of the Hurricanes’ defensive shape comes from Smith, just as his vision leads to so many of their counter-attacking opportunities.
For the Hurricanes, you’d think the pressure of a likely finals appearance now surely rests on Beauden Barrett. For the Crusaders, though they’re probably better equipped to share the load of McCaw’s absence, it will still be interesting to see how someone like Colin Slade steps up. Or even how quickly Dan Carter returns.
Bulls
The lone South African team on this list, and with the Sharks sitting pretty at the top of the log, the only one still at risk. The Bulls don’t play this week, but other results will almost certainly impact their standing. They could be officially out of contention before they kick a ball in anger again.
Waratahs
They might just be the best placed Super Rugby team coming into the resumption. The Tahs had a number of key players involved in the June Tests and, more importantly, playing well.
They might have even cemented their coveted conference-topping spot by the time the round is done.
bryan
Guest
I agree, Leah's injuries were a blessing in disguise allowing McCabe to play 12 and Toomua at 10. Brumbies were at their most dangerous by far.
shop
Guest
Not sure about that PeterK, I think the NZ teams have too many games against each other so they will "cannibalise" each other. I'd have to check the draw also though...
Chan Wee
Guest
Mils got injured playing for chiefs. in that sense so did piutau of blues and so many in other teams. c retallick got injured pre season and had to be cut off - it is part n parcel of rugger. Freuen was a gamble and they can still come away with it - nil gain nil loss basis ;) Chiefs seemed off form irrespective of that. Messam in MIB was average at best. Cruden is still looking for his best form. the team as a whole looked jaded most of the time.
Chan Wee
Guest
Crusaders are like MIB , they score more in the 2nd half and the worst scoring record in the first 1/4. Hurricanes have gone with Jr. Savea as Matt Todd is playing. Indicates a fast clearing game :)
Chivas
Guest
Well, that is a real blow to the Wallabirs and the Brumbies. I think that is too much experience to lose at this stage of the Wallabies development. I wouldn't necessarily have Fardy as captain, but as you mentioned in an earlier discussion, they will need him to stand up and lead them around the park. Also disappointed not to have seen more of McCabe this season. I actually thought Dean's exposing him to 12 was a very good thing as his game is perfectly set for it and he runs the channels hard. I know he comes in for a bit of stick regarding moving the ball on, but I always think that is a confidence and experience thing than skills based. I mean if Nonu can learn to kick, McCsbe can learn to release the pill. But sadly injury robbed us of that and now it looks like burying the Brumbies hopes. One good thing, there is still every chance they can make the finals and even if they don't they are still above the reds :-) On Contad, the AB's will need him. As much as I like Fekitoa and I do every time I watch him, he still looks a bit too much like a deer in the headlights and at this stage doesn't organise the backs like Smith. I thought Fplau looked a bit flakey in that final test against the French, but didn't want to comment with all the Skelton and Folau love going on. So glad to see Cruden firing. The chiefs really need him right now. Anyway, looking forward to the SR finals and thanks again.
Digby
Roar Guru
They will be too far behind by they time they come on mate ;)
Brett McKay
Expert
Stephen Moore, Chivas? No chance at all, had to undergo a full knee reconstruction. Will be doing well to be back for start of Super Rugby. Re Conrad Smith, ESPNscrum reported he would be "unavailable for at least a month" on June 16, so I guess that makes him a real chance for the semis...
Chan Wee
Guest
u will do fine till DC comes on with Read in the 2nd half , then it will be curtains CANES ;) too bad we will miss NADOLO v SAVEA - unstoppable force meets an immovable object :D
Clark
Guest
With Pat Lambie back the Sharks (if the finish top) will win the comp, it is as simple as that (in my mind).
Chivas
Guest
Thanks Brett. Excellent article to get things back on track and back on topic. After all the stick the Tahs get on here and Spiri for suggesting they are likely SR final contenders and Aussie conference topping.... Well hasn't that all looked a bit mean spirited and shallow. I think the Brumbies are too hard hit by injuries to get over the Tahs. If they do, they will have climbed a mountain. That said I'm pretty sure they won't go in half baked. This is finals footy and they may as well put it all in now and it is still 15 against 15 Actually my reason for posting is to find out when Conrad will be reporting back on duty and is their any chance Moore will be back before the RC?
Chan Wee
Guest
@ Brett McKay I think the final standing might look as follows Waratahs 55 Sharks 53 Crusaders 53 Brumbies 45 Hurricanes 42 Force 42 Chiefs 41 Bulls 41 Highlanders 40 Blues 40 the closeness of the NZ 5 will come to haunt them this year. and those MIB's may have some tired bodies after a more strenuos outing than the Bok or OZ players ;) .
WEST
Roar Guru
The NZ franchises were looking pretty crappy before the internationals. The Chiefs looked terrible, blues just cant win away even with Kaino... I thought anything could happen with Kaino, Luatua's back for the Blues but he's been just a shadow of the form he once had. Fancis Sailli is also back, who could look to make his presents felt especially with Hansen cruising around, they could still make the play-offs even though their at the bottom of the NZ conference. Charles Piutau - MCL Strain will be back (Round 18) Blues have really missed his initiative and skill. Brett, totally agree, Test rugby does and will change a lot of the players form, Cruden, Messam, and the work horse Brodie Retallick could really crank it up for the chiefs and breathe new life into the side as well as Gareth Anscombe starting at fullback with Tevita Koloamatangi, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Tim Nanai-Williams and James Lowe new additions to the bench. Robbie Fruean back from injury could be the spark the team needs. Highlanders have ben Smith and Aaron Smith.... What more do you need! They can make s##t happen. Hurricanes were very dangerous, after the intensity of test combat the All Blacks of the side will come back with a far higher level of production that will create a big drive in the team. Savea is the BUS and offering him a side with smaller and less qualified opposition will be brutal, after SR he'll be called a freight train. Cory Jane has rediscovered his unapologetic left fend and down the right wing only adds to the capability of the Hurricanes. Oh yeah the Crusaders... Anything can happen with this outfit.
JB
Guest
Mad Dutchman let's not count our chooks just yet, plenty of Rugby left before finals. Looking back at the season I think the tahs would be looking back at the blues game and be thinking, where were we that day, I reckon a win there would have guaran=teed them a home final and just about top spot. I do not fancy our chances in south Africa assuming the sharks get through. I think chiefs, Highlanders and saders (if there was a fit brumbies side also), are better shots. But if they can perform anf get finals in Sydney look out I think they will win it.
Bones506
Roar Guru
Completely agree - I was more focused on who goes No.1 as you have such a huge advantage in generally you avoid any travel which is the real killer. The Tahs have a massive opportunity to really take the season by the scruff of the neck. Their destiny is completely in their won hands to go No. 1 and take out the comp. You ideally want the Sharks finishing No. 2 so other teams have to deal with the travel.
JB
Guest
Raid 2 just released even better than the first. Looing forward to Friday night, Highlanders vs chiefs will be epic.
Quading in...
Guest
Really? Any further word on Smith Brett? Poor Brumbies, they survived such a hard run through the top few teams (Chiefs, Crusaders then Sharks) and then lost their remaining troops during the tests.... Poor guys.
Quading in...
Guest
Hahaha hilarious analogy Markus. My only worry is that Mowen is such a hard-arse that if you put it in his head he might commit Seppuku (suicide) for his team's honour.... So please don't mention it to him.
Quading in...
Guest
Hmmm, yeah that sounds a step too far. Thanks for the article Brett, I'm hoping hoping the Brumbies don't fall to pieces with the injury list.... The only positive I can see is that Lealiifano get's to show Link how good a 10 he can be. Let's just hope he's back in form for this weekend.
rl
Guest
massive advantage to the Tahs. The only problem is it means they can't use that as an excuse if they stumble!
Brett McKay
Expert
What was once an option is suddenly a necessity, Markus! I'm not sure of the extent of Andrew Smith's hammy, or if he's been properly ruled out or not, but Larkham and Fisher must've walked under a ladder holding black cat or something...