Last week I said Adelaide’s AFL season was done. In Round 15 they extended a middle finger in my direction, at the same time reshaping the prospects of the top four.
Forget the biggest win of the round: the Crows pulled off one of the biggest of the year, downing local rivals and ladder-leaders Port Adelaide in fine style.
Port’s reputation is as a fast, attack-minded team that shreds opponents in the later stages of games. In most games this year they’ve surged in the third quarter. This time, after leading for most of the first half, their third quarter was scoreless.
Adelaide harassed them, attacked them, worried them and outran them, crashing into every contest with full commitment. When Port threatened to come back in the last quarter, a mix of magic and determination from Eddie Betts kept them at bay.
It seemed like every mid-range Crow played his best game for the year, and for the first time we saw what this team could do if they fired each week. It’s encouraging stuff for coach Brenton Sanderson.
Last week the Crows were down in 11th and drifting, now they’re only a game outside the eight, with Gold Coast and North Melbourne both cut to a four-point lead and likely to lose that this week.
They would still have to transform their consistency and win some tricky away fixtures, so I’m not exactly backing down on my prediction. But if the Crows could produce Showdown football every week, they could prove it wrong.
The loss was equally significant for Port, dumping them from top spot on the ladder, and for the top four, where it has created a log-jam. Port, Hawthon and Sydney are now all on 44 points, with Fremantle and Geelong on 40.
The closing weeks of the season offer a buffet of contests that will shape the finals. Hawthorn face Sydney in Round 18, then Fremantle, Geelong and Collingwood in the last three games of the season.
Fremantle travel to Geelong in Round 20, while Port have Collingwood in Round 19, Sydney in Round 20 and Fremantle in Round 23.
Hawthorn and Sydney’s routine wins did boost their percentage, tightening things up there too. Hawthorn’s was a foregone conclusion against Gold Coast on a wet Tasmanian day, but it carried them top of the ladder. Their big loss was Cyril Rioli for up to 10 weeks: the kind of player who can be the difference in a tight top-end tussle.
It had few ladder ramifications, but Round 15 saw a huge win for Brisbane as well. Club champion Jonathan Brown needed a send-off worthy of his years, his premierships and his leadership – and he got one.
His abrupt mid-week retirement might have taken people by surprise, but his teammates composed themselves. Seemingly by sheer force of will, the Lions held off North Melbourne’s late press to survive by under a goal, allowing Brown one more changing-room celebration.
The Western Bulldogs would have been cheered by their win over Melbourne, breaking them clear of the bottom six, while Richmond limped up the ladder from 16th to 13th by managing not to stuff up against spoon-fanciers St Kilda.
The big losers, Port aside, were North Melbourne and Essendon.
On 2014 pedigree Essendon wouldn’t have been favourites to beat Geelong, but with Port Adelaide, Collingwood and Sydney coming up, and the Cats off some shaky form, this was the Bombers’ best chance at a top-eight scalp.
They nearly had it but couldn’t close it out, in the process dropping back behind Adelaide to 10th on the ladder, and vulnerable to West Coast and even the Doggies a game or two behind.
Realistically, Essendon’s finals hopes are done. The Bombers’ Round 22 match against Gold Coast could be an early elimination final, but only if the Suns stuff up their most winnable games to let their lower-placed rivals back in.
The other Essendon saviour could be North Melbourne. The Kangaroos have a 100 per cent shooting accuracy when aiming at their own feet. Currently seventh, with some serious wins behind them and the chance to ascend ahead, they decided to lose to second-bottom Brisbane.
Seventh on 32 points, the Roos need at least five more wins to make the cut. St Kilda, Carlton, GWS, the Bulldogs and Melbourne should provide them, but the way North have played this year that’s no guarantee. Then again, the seismograph of their 2014 form sees them equally likely to upset Hawthorn or Geelong.
They’ve beaten Port Adelaide, Fremantle and Sydney, then lost to lesser teams. You couldn’t say they’re playing any better than Carlton, who despite competing strongly against top-six sides over the last three weeks have fallen from 12th to 14th.
North should scrape into the finals, but the way they’re going their confidence will be shot once they get there. As for the other seven teams, I think I know who they’re going to be, but it may be Round 23 before we know how the order will fall.
Kevin Martin
Guest
Well written article ... Port copped an ankle injury (the 7th rolled ankle in 2014) to Trengove that was and will be a factor ... with Lobbe our only ruckman available, Jackson was the back up when needed. He may miss 1 or 2 games. The run home sets up as exciting to shape the top 8..
Kevin Martin
Guest
Well written article ... Port copped an ankle injury (the 7th rolled ankle in 2014) to Trengove that was and will be a factor ... with Lobbe our only ruckman available, Jackson was the back up when needed. He may miss 1 or 2 games. The run home shapes up as exciting to set the top 8..
Thomas
Guest
Those three games will be pretty close I'd think - Crows after the Showdown can often be a bit flat, Collingwood are no better than the Cats side the Suns fixed up at Metricon a couple of rounds ago and the Roos have already knocked over the other three sides in the current top 4. Should be an interesting round.
Cat
Roar Guru
So by that measure Sydney did not deserve their top 4 finish last year ...
Aransan
Guest
Don, I don't follow rugby but it is a game played internationally and Australian Rules isn't. I don't follow soccer (football) much but many terms and strategies come from soccer -- midfield, transitions, structures, getting behind the ball etc etc. I will admit that more thinking seems to go into soccer strategies on game day than is the case with Australian Rules, but I do prefer Australian Rules.
Aransan
Guest
Fatigue could be reduced by having 8 interchange and no sub. Remember when we only had 19th and 20th men and when a player went off that was it. There are quite a few AFL supporters who believe that the use of the interchange has increased congestion. A team is at a distinct disadvantage at present if one of their players has to be subbed off early. I can remember seeing a game where one side had 6 injured players with still some time to go. I believe it was Essendon against West Coast at Windy Hill and it was painful just to watch Paul Salmon having to stay on the field. I still support 6 subs and no interchange.
Exciting Final 8
Guest
Guys, I was 'speculating' only on higher ranked teams winning. :)
Don Freo
Guest
If Freo never loose another game, they'll have limitless successive premierships. Sometimes "ifs" can be a bit too speculative.
Don Freo
Guest
If Port is a contender, they'll cover those key defensive spots as effectively as Freo has done with McPharlin, Johnson and Silvagni out. If they are a contender.
Don Freo
Guest
You never change a brilliant game (Aussie Rules) because an inferior code does it. Rugby struggles to get more than 15,000 to a top game and soccer is arguably a board game like chess...not a sport.
Macca
Guest
Pies beating Suns is far from a certainty given the game is being played on the Gold COast in the twilight which seems to be an advantage to the Suns. And what Happens after that? The Suns have the easiest run home out of them Adelaide and Essendon
Jakarta Jeff
Guest
If Essendon beat Port by more than the Crows beat the Giants and the Hawks cream the Roos, Essendon could go to 7th!
Jakarta Jeff
Guest
Aransan, you're spot on. Port have significant outs in FB and CHB, Essendon will have a couple of good INS in Winderlich and Baguley.
Exciting Final 8
Guest
If the Crows beat the Giants this week and the Pies beat the Suns, the Crows are in 8th. And if the Hawks cream the Roos as well, Crows go to 7th.
Michael huston
Guest
Yes their draw has been hard and they've had plenty to deal with on the injury front, but they're no way close to the standard of the four teams above them.
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
What does it matter what other sports do? I've played other sports and there are pro's and con's for all the different rules and permutations. The interchange has become a bit of a straw man for people who think it's a key to reduce congestion or as you are suggesting reduce fatigue (!). It's far too blunt an instrument to target game style with. Coaches use the "numbers around the ball" game style because it's effective, not because of the interchange. Likewise, even if there was no interchange, players would still run as much to implement a game plan, but the just either a) get fitter, b) manage the fatigue better, c) have more endurance athletes in the team or a combination of all three.
Aransan
Guest
Dalgety, seriously though do you think having interchange players is a good idea? If you do, how many do you think we should have because it does change the way the game is played. Does rugby have interchange players? American grid-iron does. What other team sports, regardless of the size or shape of the ball, allow interchange players.
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
Using a round ball is good enough for soccer too Aransan.
Knoxy
Guest
The atmosphere at the ground last night was pathetic, even in the last few minutes when it looked like Carlton might win. I also had to laugh when they had fire works when Collingwood came onto the ground to try and compensate for the lack of atmosphere. There would've been no need for that contrived rubbish if the game was played on Saturday afternoon.
Macca
Guest
Maybe because the AFL might finally be realising that bending over backwards for ratings is negatively impacting the "product they are selling" (not to mention the supporters who actually want to go to teh games) and this mminor concessional allows them to say we are listening.