The Saints announced early in the season that they would be targeting the draft and looking to build from the ground up.
They would begin stockpiling as much young talent as they could to form a new successful team capable of returning to finals football. It is a formula that worked with Geelong, and one that was the basis for the Saints successful run from 2008-2010.
With just three wins for the season to date and an ongoing reliance on players well past 30, the Saints re-build looks like delivering several lean years before they can recruit enough quality and get enough games into them to once again be competitive.
It is commonly viewed that players need at least three to four seasons in an AFL environment to mature physically. Players start to near their peak development at around 23-24 years old and with 50-100 games under their belt.
The Saints massive gap in talent in this area is one of the reasons why they are looking to start from scratch.
But in such an ultra competitive commercial environment and with a precarious financial footing to begin with, can the Saints really afford to take five years to develop a young list from scratch?
They need to be innovative, aggressive and flexible in their approach to re-building their list to fast track the process.
While the previous build from the draft model worked in the past for the Saints and the Cats, it is interesting to see the rise of other teams and the approach they have taken.
The Power developed a core group of youngsters but have also blended in a combination of recycled players, such as Jay Schulz.
This has allowed them to develop a group of players of similar age and experience to grow with the wealth of talented youngsters they have accumulated.
The Hawks have added a large number of recycled players to boost their growing crop of youngsters and Collingwood have used mature age recruits to great success to help fast track the development of their squad.
The Saints must be bold in trying to build a list that will not only return them to finals footy by 2016-17, but allow them to be a future premiership contender.
Its always an interesting comparison to consider sides in similar positions and the path they are taking. Both the Bulldogs and Saints enjoyed successful periods during 2008-2010 with both falling from grace.
The Dogs have been able to now grab some quality youth on their list, having started their re-build at least one season prior to the Saints. They have had the assistance of some handy father son recruits.
Rather than relying solely on the draft to re-build their squad, they have also targeted players in their early twenties with previous AFL experience. The team looks to be a couple of seasons ahead of the Saints in regards to their development.
Melbourne are the other interesting club to look at. In previous years they have had no shortage of draft picks to boost their talent and through a variety of reasons have failed to capitalise on these.
They tried adding a range of star recruits and recycled players such as Tom Gillies and Shannon Byrnes, but they failed to show any real progress. They were trying to get games into their youngsters in the hope of having a squad of 23-25 year olds with 80 or more games’ experience.
Enter Paul Roos and the focus changed.
They went hard for more midfielders and saw the benefit of recruiting players with some previous years in the system. In came Dom Tyson and Bernie Vince and both have been excellent additions to the club. Gone is the philosophy of getting as many games into youngsters as possible.
Instead they have to earn a spot on the list. The competitiveness and spirit has risen dramatically and suddenly Melbourne’s fortunes look a lot brighter.
If the Saints take the conservative path of building via the draft it is likely that given the lack of quality in their current list they would need quality picks in the next three drafts to adequately stock their list.
They then need those players to have played at least four seasons to develop physically and gain the experience required to match the type of side Port Adelaide have now assembled.
That sees them looking at a return to finals footy somewhere around 2019-20!
St Kilda are in a big hole and when Leigh Montagna, Lenny Hayes, Nick Riewoldt and the rest all retire in the next one to two seasons, the hole could be even wider.
They need to make some strong decisions and recruit young players who have been in the system and are already on their way to being developed players.
Kristian Jacksch – a first round draft pick – Jono O’Rouke, Brad Sheppard, Tim Membrey and Josh Walker should all be on the Saints shopping list as quality young players struggling for opportunities at other clubs who are off contract at the end of the season.
The free agent market is limited this year but a play for David Mackay or James Frawley – both 25 with at least five good years left – would still provide the Saints with players capable of playing in the next successful team.
St Kilda announced this week they would target out of contract stars in the coming seasons and this needs to happen this year. Grab three to four of the players mentioned above along with at least two first round draft picks this year, and suddenly the rebuild would start to take shape much sooner.
The cub needs a strong and ambitious plan to re-build from such a lowly position. They need to aim high and look to have a squad playing finals footy in three to four years time, not five.
Rohit Kumar
Guest
Even though there is a lot of football to be played this season, I personally think the Saints are progressing with their re-build in a fast tracking manner. They are moving the ball quicker and are more competitive as opposed to last year. Their starts have been good; something that we have not seen much of last year. They have a nice core group of players like Armitage, Geary, Ray, and Gilbert to help fast track the youngsters. Additions of Lonie and Sinclair have been useful and both these young blokes have played well so far. It is also evident that these youngsters have received a lot of emotional support by the 25-29 years of age players such as Armitage and Geary. If they continue to be competitive, then playing finals in 2018 will not be out of question. Their performances thus far are a reflection of them showing intent to push up the ladder ASAP. I believe they are going to target the free-agent market end of this season as well.
Rohit
Guest
Well unfortunately despite Ross Lyon being a great coach for St Kilda, he did not shrewdly recruit or else we would not be in this situation today. Putting us in 2 grand finals means nothing if one cannot recruit shrewdly. Kind of feel for Richo that he has to clean up this mess but it is better to do it now than later. That way, I admired Grant Thomas's recruiting because we became a top 4 team in just 2-3 years time under his tutelage. In 2002, we finished second last on the ladder and in 2004, we were a kick off a grand final against Port Adelaide. St Kilda have promised they will recruit hard and even if this means forcing some players who are 30+ years of age to retire (with the exception of Rooey and Joey) or be delisted, I will not be surprised. However, I still have confidence we will return to playing finals footballer much sooner than most football experts think. By then, I am sure Josh Bruce, Luke Delaney and Dylan Roberton will be outstanding defenders just like Schoenmakers and Shiels from Hawthorn are.
Ian Montgomery
Roar Pro
The Hawks are in a much better position than the Saints were to avoid a crash. With Smith, Shiels, Rioli and Hill stepping up this year and youngsters now getting game time like Langford, Hartung and Hallahan, they have the young talent coming through. They have Stratton and Schoenmakers as young tall backs and have got McEvoy in to take Hales role. Teams like the Hawks, Geelong and Sydney, through various methods, have managed to keep up the top through visionary list management, shrewd recruiting and strong internal devlopment programs - the key areas the Saints have to get right
Rohit
Guest
Yeah exactly. Saad was doing well before he was suspended but glad to hear that he may be back next year. Our small forward line will mean a lot when he is there. I guess placing either Schneider or Savage as a back up to Milera would help but then both these players are also required in the midfield. Until such time, I guess it is a good idea to keep Darren Michington going as a crumbing forward. Perhaps targeting Josh Walker from Geelong and David MacKay from Adelaide at the end of the season would help our rebuild process take place a bit quicker. Both players have some experience and have plenty of football left in them. As far as I am aware, I think this is the month where Richo will be talking to the veterans and hopefully we will get to know what decisions are going to be made in terms of who is retiring or who will be going around again next year. I will take Rooey and Joey out of this as both of them have one and two years left respectively in their contracts. If there are a few who are retiring or being delisted, then we will need to recruit hard end of this season the players I mentioned above.
Doc
Guest
Terry Milera has to step up - he's good and at times very good, but gets pushed off the ball too easily. I guess that comes down to consistency - the point you were making. I don't rate Trent-Lane for that reason but Saad is a bit different - he was starting to play good footy when he was suspended. Once he's allowed to play again he should be given the opportunity to show whether or not he's good enough to make the team again. But I take your point and perhaps it should be applied a bit more rigorously to all recruits.
Rohit
Guest
Yeah, Ross Lyon was way too keen to play the same old Goddard, Dal Santo, etc without realizing that unless youngsters obtain an exposure to 4-quarter footy, there won't be able to fast track their progress. All I will say is that the balance needs to happen sooner then only I can foresee our list development taking place quicker. A lot of our players are on the wrong side of 30 and hence, players who are going to replace them need to pick their game up. Even though Hawthorn are dominating in the football, it is not very long to go until thy have the same problem as many of their players are on the wrong side of 30. E.g. David Hale, Shaun Burgoyne, Josh Gibson, Brian Lake, Brad Sewell, Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge, etc
Ian Montgomery
Roar Pro
I dont think we can afford to have 3 recycled mature recruits performing inconsistently or at an average level. Millera, Trent-Lane and Saad are all very much the same type of player. This is where the club needs ot be strong and decisive with the list. All three guys play the same way, pick one, get rid of the others and free up the list for others
Ian Montgomery
Roar Pro
Let's not forget part of the reason the Saints have such a hole in those mid twenties players is because younger players never got a run under Lyon. He is a great coach but there needs to be a balance.
Rohit
Guest
Yeah true but one huge advantage Ross Lyon has is that bulk of his players are consistent week-in week-out, so he does not have to worry about bringing so many changes to the team. The interesting bit will be when Pav and Sandilands hang up their boots, who will be their ideal replacement? Some of the St Kilda players need to be more consistent week-in week-out and that is why lot of changes are made by Richo. This is what I reckon but I could be wrong.
johno
Guest
I like Roos and Lyons philosophy of picking the best team and only making changes if there are injuries or consistently poor form. Look at Lyon this season, he has plenty of guys playing really good footy in the seconds, but he rarely makes a team change, even after the losses. He knows his best 22 and pretty much says "change my mind" to those players not in it. Guys who come in are generally given a good run to prove themselves. The philosophy of wholesale change from week to week creates more problems than it fixes.
Doc
Guest
I doubt we are going to get Sam Fisher back but we have a great defender to replace him in Josh Bruce, who seems to be getting better every game. We really miss Sammy Gilbert (who can be superb - when he's on song!) but we will hopefully get him back this season and in any case Delaney, Savage (who also seems to get better with each game) and the talented Billings to name a few also provide the drive we need to start winning games again.
Doc
Guest
Why not? He made a mistake and has paid a heavy price for it - if he can prove he's capable of performing the Saints should take him back. At the time of his ban he was starting to play some really good footy in the forwards that can only take the pressure off Nick. We desperately need that now. Ahmed himself is or was as keen as mustard to play for us again so as soon as he becomes available again, I say recruit him!
Rohit
Guest
It will be great to see Ahmed Saad Re-drafted as we are in need of small forwards now that Tip Rat has retired. Somebody needs to support Terry Milera.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Just out of interest, would you be happy to see the club re-draft Ahmed Saad once he's finished his ban?
Rohit
Guest
As a Saints supporter, I could not agree more that they need to be bold in their recuriting process. Some more brave and tough decisions need to be made in order to have a balance of players in the 20-24 years, 25-29 years and 30+ years age category. One of the biggest recipes for disasters in today's football is relying too much on veterans to get a team over the line. Yes, experience is pivotal but so is young and fresh legs and hence, the young players like Jack Billings, Jack Steven, Shane Savage, etc. need to step up week-in week-out. They have been doing so but need to continue that. Perhaps placing a great offer to out of contract players from other clubs at season's end would definitely help especially in our tall forward line. Having said this, I am glad Rhys Stanley is slowly starting to pick up his game and be a relief to Nick Riewoldt. Tom Lee and Arryn Siposs need to step up as well and this will really help our forward line. I cannot wait to see what Spencer White can produce. Great to see Luke Delaney and Josh Bruce performing well in the absence of Sam Gilbert and Sam Fisher. In summary, if we can recruit hard (for our forward line and midfield) especially players in their mid-twenties from other clubs who have enough football left in them, then it is very much possible to do a Port Adelaide, i.e. fast progress in rebuilding.
Rohit
Guest
Some more brave and tough decisions need to be made in order to have a balance of players in the 20-24 years, 25-29 years and 30+ years age category. One of the biggest recipes for disasters in today's football is relying too much on veterans to get a team over the line. Yes, experience is pivotal but so is young and fresh legs and hence, the young players like Jack Billings, Jack Steven, Shane Savage, etc. need to step up week-in week-out. They have been doing so but need to continue that. Perhaps placing a great offer to out of contract players from other clubs at season's end would definitely help especially in our tall forward line. Having said this, I am glad Rhys Stanley is slowly starting to pick up his game and be a relief for Nick Riewoldt. Tom Lee and Arryn Siposs need to step up as well and this will really help our forward line. I cannot wait to see what Spencer White can produce. Great to see Luke Delaney and Josh Bruce performing well in the absence of Sam Gilbert and Sam Fisher. In summary, if we can recruit hard (for our forward line and midfield) especially players in their mid-twenties from other clubs who have enough football left in them, then it is very much possible to do a Port Adelaide, i.e. fast progress in rebuilding.
imonty35
Guest
I still think given the stock piling of elite youth at other clubs ie. GWS and the Suns tuat there is opportunity to sign up 1st round draft picks who have a season or two at an AFL club and essentially add a couple of years to the development of the list. Guys like O'rourke amd Jacksch at GWS in combination with say a number one draft pick and a free agwnt such ae david mackay could change a list with plenty of holes into a competitive unit in one to two seasons. I agree stability and quality off field staff such as richo and a strong development program is key so we dont tread down the path of the demons in drafting a batch of first round picks that do nothing!
Fat Tony
Guest
The Saints need to continue stockpiling young kids and getting games into them, they have no other choice at the moment. The Saints had the most successful period in there history from 2004-2011 making the finals every year except 2007. With a bit of luck they could have won 2 premierships, but that era has now ended and they need to ensure that they can have another sustained era of success.
Doc
Guest
While the Saints need to be both bold and innovative in their approach to recruiting I don't think their current plummet to the bottom is necessarily because they haven't been. They have recruited some exciting new talent in the last two seasons - when the slide gathered momentum - as well as in this. Dunstan, Hicks, Shendon and young Eli from Tassie before he got injured to name a few. They have also had a run of rotten luck with some star recruits who have dropped off the list and the world or just simply been a disaster - the likes of Lynch and Lovett spring to mind - the tragedy of Saad's suspension also looms large just as he was about to really get going. Together with the departure of some great players starting with Goddard (it was the money, nothing else apparently) it has really cruelled our pitch and made the Saints overly dependent on just a few remaining big names. Unfortunately they have also been the ones relied upon for the drive in the mids and up front - tag Riewaldt out and all too often you blunt the Saints ability to drive forward and kick goals. Injury to others like Armitage, Schnieder and Gilbert have further added to our on-field woes - if only because there is a lack of experienced players to replace them. Getting another bloody wooden spoon will hurt but the top draft picks will be some compensation. If we can grind out another win or two before the end of the season and avoid it draft picks from further down the top 20 will be our reward - history says that they are often turn out to be of better value than the top picks. While it looks grim, there is some light and as long as we don't play musical chairs with coaches and stick with the level-headed Richo, we'll give ourselves a chance in the next few years.
Nando
Guest
Just pick the best kids the draft can offer. Dont stuff it up.