The final round of Super Rugby is upon us and, like last year, everything is still up in the air about who will finish where. The only certainty is the Waratahs will finish on top of the ladder.
This weekend will see four massive games. Blues versus Chiefs, Brumbies versus Force, Crusaders versus Highlanders and Stormers versus Sharks.
Hurricanes have a bye but they will know their fate on Friday night after the first two games. It might even happen after the first game.
They need a Blues victory over a low-scoring Chiefs and the loser of the Brumbies versus Force game to get no bonus points to be safe. Anything less and they are gone.
Blues have an almost impossible scenario. They need a win and that win needs to be by 39 points or more, with four tries. They also need the loser of the Brumbies and Force game to get no bonus points. That would be enough to see them sneak into sixth spot.
The Chiefs need a win, a draw or a loss with two bonus points to jump over the Hurricanes. Anything less and they will miss out. Even with a draw or loss with two bonus points and they can still miss out if the loser of the Brumbies versus Force game get two bonus points as well.
A win guarantees a finals spot, but anything less and they will face a tense two hours waiting for other results.
The Brumbies and Force can both qualify, and the winner of this game is in. If it’s a draw and the Chiefs don’t win they both get through. If the Chiefs lose and don’t get two bonus points and the Brumbies versus Force loser gets a bonus point they are both in.
If the Chiefs win and it’s a draw, both teams can still make it, provided the Highlanders lose and get no bonus points.
The Crusaders have qualified. If they get one bonus point they top the New Zealand conference. If they lose by more than seven to the Highlanders and the Highlanders score four tries then they will lose the conference.
The worst case scenario for them is finishing fourth, and their main battle could be for second place with the Sharks. Currently there are eight points difference between the side, and this could be crucial in the final wash up. If they win by five for example, the Sharks will need to win by 14 or more.
If the Highlanders win with a four-try bonus and keep the Crusaders from getting a bonus point they win the New Zealand conference. If they get one bonus point they won’t finish out of the finals. If they lose with no bonus points, they are out if the Chiefs win and the Brumbies and Force get two points.
The Sharks have the benefit of knowing exactly what they need to do to beat the Crusaders or potentially Highlanders into second place. They can’t finish worse than third but they need to finish higher than the New Zealand conference winner to gain second place. If that is the Crusaders then the eight-point differential comes right into play.
These are the scenarios. This is how I think the results might play out
Blues will roll the Chiefs. The Chiefs have not been good on the road this season and the Blues at home is almost as tough as the Waratahs at home. I think the Chiefs might scratch a bonus point out of the game and slide into sixth spot but fail to pass the Hurricanes.
Brumbies will win at home and lock in a finals spot. Force will scrape a bonus point and dump the Chiefs out of the finals.
The Crusaders will beat the Highlanders and win the New Zealand conference with a four-try bonus. The Highlanders will lock in fifth position and secure an away final to the Brumbies Week 1.
The Sharks will fall to the Stormers, who have gone 160 minutes at home without conceding a point.
This is how I think the finals will work out.
Week 1
Sharks versus Force
Brumbies versus Highlanders
Week 2
Waratahs versus Brumbies
Crusaders versus Sharks
Final
Waratahs versus Crusaders
Firstxv
Guest
With Woodcock and Braid out the pendulum swings back the Chiefs way for the match. Cruden's return to form is the biggest thing going for them now, easily the best front foot 10 in the world when hes running the line. The Canes match showed theyre showing glimpses of their former selves. Possibly a late run there. Still think the Tahs are going to be victims of their own press knockout time- at least thats the thinking, cos at home if theyre allowed to open it up theyll stay in front.
Firstxv
Guest
Once again...knockout rugby is not pool rugby. The Tahs play a game based on things needing to happen to win. In knockout rugby its about survival. To expect the Tahs to continue on try scoring sprees during the semis is expecting a lot. But dont be surprised if youre saying here after the match...geeez...what went wrong they played much better rugby than that all season.... knock...out...rugby. Teams wont be going to Sydney to play for points, table positions blah blah. Theyll be coming to Sydney...1...as underdogs...and 2...to knock the tahs off the perch. Nothing else. The Tahs simply have yet to achieve in successful knockout rugby since 1996...
the lump
Guest
Look out if by miracle canes get in !!!!!!!!
Sportym
Guest
That's rich coming from you PeterK, Do you really want to get into a debate on which team chokes?? Careful there mate.
Bobbo7
Guest
I honestly think the Highlanders could take the Brumbies
Jerry
Guest
Merhtens must have missed that team meeting, I don't think throwing up double middle fingers is gonna shut the crowd up....
Jerry
Guest
Braid's been putting off a shoulder (I think) surgery till the end of the season, obviously JK isn't thinking qualification is a real possibility if he's let Braid go a week early.
AndyS
Guest
Blues have just pulled Woodcock and Braid out as not worth risking for a nothing game.
Bobbo7
Guest
I am as consistent as the Highlanders. But to be fair I think the Chiefs will win. I was merely sayng it would be typical of the Blues to ruin it for the team that has a real chance. They have a histroy of it.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
Crowd will probably be 70/30 Waratahs if at ANZ. There are a heap of kiwi's in Sydney that would get behind them.
Yogi
Guest
KiwiDave I disagree on that result (agree with the others). The force are also getting a lot of players back this week. Most notably Alby - he makes a huge difference to them. I am backing them to beat the brumbies in canberra. They are an under rated side. With Moore gone they have a significant advantage in the forwards. Have you seen Hodgson's tackle stats for 2014? He has the most tackles in the comp this year by an absolute mile despite that he s in a pack full of workhorses.
Jerry
Guest
"Crusaders (do not lose at home)" Except for the 3 times they've lost at home this season?
Yogi
Guest
So do I as it would be a great boost to see 3 aussie teams get through. I think it would be the first time that has happened.
Yogi
Guest
The sharks are the new Waratahs! (now that the tahs are soon to lose the tag "perennial underachievers/chokers). Stormers will be worth watching next year. They have shown glimpses of being a good side the last few weeks.
Chief AE BEE !!
Guest
That's it my bro - who cares as long as we best them JAFFAs from the other side of the bombays lol
Squirrel
Guest
The feb premiers are looking ok on July PeterK. What a great finale coming. Go the tahs no mercy to the reds. Folau or Ben Robinson hat trick to top it off.
Harry Jones
Expert
I think Smal has basically told Coetzee he is done; so Smal and Proudfoot and Burger and JdV are probably running the show.
fleagle
Guest
Waratahs by 8
fleagle
Guest
Waratahs Crusaders (do not lose at home) Sharks are the givens Blues to beat the Chiefs so they will be 40 each and out of contention - Chiefs can't pass canes on PD Brumbies to beat the Force so they will hit 44/45 - I think 44 so 4th spot Highlanders to lose to Crusaders so finish on 42/43 I can't see a try bonanza for both sides so 2 bonus points not an option 5th spot Hurricanes remain on 41 so may get 6th My (Aussie bias) hope is for the Force to get a bonus point and steal 6th spot based on number of wins. Again - not a try fest so hope for a less than 7 loss which would be enough. QF 1 Sharks at home to win against whomever QF2 Highlanders to narrowly lose to Brumbies SF1 Crusaders to belt Sharks SF2 Waratahs to belt Brumbies / Highlanders GF
Nabley
Guest
Think you give the Force too much, although they have done much better than I would ever have thought possible at the start of the season. The Grand Final sounds about right and in a game of rugby both teams have a chance. I think the Tahs are playing at last a brand of rugby that can win. But to do so they have to eliminate all downside issues. Why oh why would the Waratahs want to play at Homebush? That could be their big weakness. They should stick with what they know.