It’s amazing how things have changed in a month. On June 9, at the end of Round 12, the AFL ladder had Port Adelaide on top.
Not just on top, but two games clear of Hawthorn. They looked to have a top-two spot there for the taking. A top-four spot, at least, seemed a formality.
At the same time Collingwood were in fourth spot, having won seven of their previous eight games. Some considered the Pies to be one of only a handful of clubs capable of winning the premiership.
Now, at the end of Round 17, both teams have lost four of their last five and fallen four spots on the ladder. Port are a game outside the top four and Collingwood sit inside the eight by virtue of percentage only.
So, what has gone wrong in the past month to bring about such a fall?
Part of the reason is that the cream has risen to the top. The unanimous predictions for the top three – Sydney, Fremantle and Hawthorn – have claimed their rightful spots at the top, with perennial flag-chances Geelong in fourth.
That doesn’t fully explain Port’s plight, though. They have beaten three of those teams this year, and pushed Sydney to the final siren.
Port’s fall from grace can partly be put down to injuries. When they won 10 out of 11 to start the year they were mostly untroubled by injuries. Since then they have lost their two key defenders in Alipate Carlile and Jackson Trengove for extended periods.
The absence of those two players was most telling in Sunday’s game against Richmond. This was a match against a side whose biggest scalp this season was Carlton. A side whose only other three wins were against the bottom three teams. Yet the Power allowed them to kick their second highest score of the year.
For some, the Port bubble simply had to burst at some stage, it was just a matter of when. There is no question now that it has. While they may still register enough wins to finish in the top four, they are now playing catch up and a first week home final seems out of reach.
Injuries can partly explain Collingwood’s season, too. They have missed their two key defenders, Nathan Brown and Ben Reid, for the whole year. In their absence Nick Maxwell was called on to hold the fort, with youngsters Lachie Keeffe and Nick Frost filling the key spots.
Keeffe was admirable early, but has been out of his depth more recently, especially with Maxwell injured. Frost, on the other hand, has been a find for the Pies. He has played every game and held down his spot with aplomb.
The most worrying aspect of Collingwood’s season has been form. Put simply, too much has been left to too few.
Scott Pendlebury has played his usual brand of champagne football, Steele Sidebottom and Jamie Elliott have taken their games to the next level and Dayne Beams started the year like a house on fire.
Then there is the other end of the scale. Travis Cloke is continuing his pattern of a solid year followed by an average one. Dane Swan seems a shadow of his former self. Luke Ball hasn’t made anywhere near the impact to which we’ve become accustomed. Jesse White hasn’t been the gun recruit the Pies had hoped for.
Of that group the hardest to cover has been Cloke and White. Collingwood have essentially played the year without their first choice key backs and forwards. Cloke and White have kicked 46 goals between them. To put that in perspective, Hawthorn have three players that have kicked more than 40 goals each.
With Cloke and White out of form it has left Elliott to shoulder the load and he has now missed the last few games with a hamstring injury.
The Pies’ last two losses have been particularly damaging. The worst teams to lose to are those similarly placed on the ladder.
The loss to Gold Coast last week put them on equal points with the Suns, while the loss to Essendon this week let the Bombers into the eight and left their own spot hanging by a thread. If they lose to Adelaide next round they could be as low as 10th.
The season for Collingwood and Port Adelaide has been derailed in just over a month. It could take another month to get it back on the tracks. When we get to the first week of August, though, it might already be too late.
Don Freo
Guest
There is a problem here Gregor. Did you say 'Collingwood' and 'intellectual' in the same sentence?
Don Freo
Guest
Bucks is not inexperienced. How many years do you think he has been there? As for Hird, He had the Dons higher than "couldn't care less" Bomber has them. Examine the movement in Collingwood's list. Bucks has done brilliantly to keep them competitive. Perhaps you just don't like Bucks and Hirdy.
Gregor
Guest
Hey Eddie The Eagles developed Malthouse as a coach. He had a list that had the personnel to win four flags.He had a first-class football department, Brian Cook as CEO,Richard Colless as Chairman,(didn't they do well elsewhere!) and some of the best players ever to pull on a boot. Collingwood poached him,after all, along with the intellectual property he brought. And you have the hide to accuse other sides of being favoured! And Collingwood being disadvantaged?Get real. Cold regards
Josh Pinn
Roar Pro
Of course. I'll blame that on the editors!
Bosk
Guest
Not sure I would put Port's drop in form completely down to injuries to be honest. Admittedly they had a charmed run in the first half of the year which certainly helped them, but based on what I've seen three things have begun happening in recent weeks: 1. They've begun running out of puff. It's a long season and no team can play at maximum intensity for 25 weeks. 2. Opposing teams have clamped down on them, wizening up to how hideously reliant they are on run & carry and beating the opposition on the spread. The Adelaide Oval intimidation factor is also slowly diminishing. 3. They've begun doubting themselves. Hinkley's philosophy of "all out attack, all the time" is a great mantra when everything's going well, unfortunately it breaks down as soon as there's adversity. Its easy to take risks when you have nothing to lose, but when the weight of expectations are suddenly on your shoulders it becomes infinitely harder to maintain that confidence & courage. Parallels between Essendon's 2012 season and Port's 2014 are beginning to emerge.
Orville
Guest
Eddie distracting from Pies poor form - he is a hypocrite/deluded or has a very short memory - he claims that the Swans don't develop players and then says they are hiding them in the Academies - which is it??
Bobbo7
Guest
Maybe Collingwood are suffering from a lack of an experienced coach? Cannot believe clubs are so quick to appoint ex-players as coaches before they have any experience. Hird is another example - and hasn't that gone well.
Cat
Roar Guru
What did you say? I can't hear you, speak up please.
Go Swans
Guest
THE EVIL EMPIRE IS FALLING APART. IF YOU WANT TO RISE AGAIN, YOU WILL NEED TO GET RID OF EDDIE FIRST.
dms1972
Guest
As a Collingwood supporter, even when Collingwood were in the top 4, without Ben Reid, I didn't consider Collingwood a genuine premiership contender. The loss of Ben Reid this year has been massive and has been compounded by the more recent loss of Elliott. When Keefe was dropped for the Essendon game, I knew big trouble was brewing. An already undersized back six was left even more so, allowing Jake Carlisle to have a huge influence on the game.
Cat
Roar Guru
"... waste all their energy sniping ..." Pot calling the kettle black much?
Radelaide
Guest
The team form went before those 2 injuries, in fact the Dogs could've had us the week before the showdown and they only dropped off during the game because their captain and 2 others copped injuries during the game.
Go Swans
Guest
For once, I agree with Eddie regarding Collingwood's poor form. It's all the fault of the Swans and COLA. The Swans sold the Magpies a lemon in White; and Eddie says they can't win without some COLA. I say they are just lazy, don't work hard enough, and waste all their energy sniping at the Swans. Good things happen to good people!
MomentbyMoment
Guest
I think Eddie has to take some blame for the way his mighty team has fallen. If you create a culture of blame at the top, that will filter down and you will end up with a culture of losing.
Cat
Roar Guru
Port went too hard too soon, its a long season and playing your best footy in May and June doesn't win anything. I also find it interesting how Port fans earlier in the year tried to tell us all how deep the team is, yet soon as they have 2 injuries the wheels seem like they have fallen off.
Rob
Guest
Port is reminding me of the demons in 04 and 05... Top of the ladder till the home stretch then the wheels fall off in sight of the finish line
The Big Fish
Guest
Ports wins against the top were at home so now facing them away is starting to tell of their real soon status. Maybe top four. Likely top of the rest.
Radelaide
Guest
C'mon Port! pull the finger out, we are not getting blown out the park, still seem to have some run but just the confidence and self belief seems to be lacking (which can be reversed), that being said it more looks like the opposition have more confidence against us which we can't control unless we find a way to throw it back. Still looks like we can make the finals due to Suns and Pies faltering pretty bad but if we do just get in on nobody being good enough we'll be bundled out pretty quick and back to the drawing board.
Sean Mortell
Roar Guru
Do you mean Jack Frost, not Nick Frost?