With five rounds to go, the top four remains up for grabs. The rest of the top eight remains up for grabs. The wooden spoon is up for grabs. It’s open season.
First I have to express my admiration for Hawthorn. It’s not just that they had the biggest win of the weekend, downing ladder-leaders Sydney by 10 points in a brutal beauty of a match.
It’s that this season has thrown everything in the Hawks’ way, yet every time they’ve somehow found a way through.
Their star attraction defected to their most dangerous opponent. They’ve lost key players to injury at regular intervals. They’ve played an undersized defence for most of the year.
They’ve had a hard draw, they lost their coach for several weeks to a disease that sounded like a Melrose Place subplot, and they had the distracting aftermath of a player going full ‘Nam flashback and trying to choke an opponent.
And yet they’ve won 13 from 17 starts, and if they’d kicked three more goals this season their percentage would have them in top spot.
Saturday’s win against Sydney was massive for Hawthorn’s chances of staying that high. With three easier games in their last five, their big challenges will be back-to-back against Fremantle in Perth and bogey side Geelong at the MCG.
The third-placed Cats are level on points, while Fremantle is one win behind in fourth. Those three sides all play each other in the last three rounds, and that little round-robin will decide who finishes second.
Adelaide’s win over Collingwood won’t shape a premiership tilt, but was nearly as big. After lurking on the frustrating fringe for months, Adelaide finally shot into the top eight for the first time this year, directly at the Magpies’ expense.
With their lamentable start to the year well behind them, Adelaide are in the best form of the lower-ranked finals contenders. Sides above them have abdicated or are wavering.
Winning at the MCG is always a big ask for interstate teams, especially with a hostile black-and-white crowd against you, but the Crows did it with aplomb. They won with direct, hard-edged football that isolated their key forwards.
After a middling year thus far Tex Walker dominated late in the game. A Pies comeback and the attendant crowd fanaticism were shrugged off, the cauldron withstood. It was a big test, and the Crows passed with distinction.
With at least four of their last five well within their capabilities, the Crows should be able to hold eighth spot. If anyone above them falters, there’s a chance to climb higher.
The Brisbane Lions’ win was also significant, partly for just being a Brisbane Lions win and partly its style. With Brisbane shooting for five wins in the season and Gold Coast shooting for finals, there was no doubt who was tipped.
Yet the Lions destroyed the Suns in one of the most lopsided starts to a game of football you’ll ever see. As they streamed forward and rained goals at will, the margin was 41 points by quarter time, and out to 56 in the second before the Suns pegged the odd one back.
It’s worth revisiting a quarter-time disposal count that read 125-35, and the fact that Gold Coast took one mark in that quarter of football. The style more than the result made this the biggest loss of the round. We wondered about their future without Ablett, but right now it looks non-existent.
You couldn’t ask for an easier road trip than driving 45 minutes to play a side that has spent the season mired at the foot of the ladder. Yet with a finals spot beckoning the Suns bombed to 10th. High hopes look set to fade to disappointment.
The Magpies have bombed too, down to ninth a few weeks after being talked of as a top-four contender. They’ve lost five of their last six games, and with Adelaide’s encouragement finally abdicated their top-eight spot.
It has been perplexing: they’re hardly a poor side, they still have their great midfield core, and most of their losses have been narrow or at least competitive. Somehow small failures of composure have kept bringing them unstuck.
Now in ninth, level on points with Adelaide and Gold Coast, they need to win more games than either in the next few weeks. It’s a big ask for the Magpies, facing Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, and trips to play West Coast and GWS.
The weekend’s loss is unlikely to hurt the Swans though. For the moment it brings them back to the pack: 52 points to each of the top three. But I’d still tip Sydney to comfortably finish top.
Their next fortnight is the tricky bit: you’d normally pencil them in for a home win against a marginal finals side like Essendon, but the Swans will be coming off a six-day break and the Dons from 12.
Then there’s a trip to Port at the Adelaide Oval, and even though the teal brigade have slipped in recent weeks, they’re still fifth on the ladder with a very good side.
Presuming Sydney can negotiate these obstacles, their final three games should be a tune-up cruise while the other top sides beat several shades of hell out of each other. Falter, and the shuffle will continue.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Tippett was displaying his marking prowess once more. Perhaps he has taught Franklin how to mark because his is improving dramatically as well. Tippet's main issue was his kicking which is normally quite strong as well. Maybe just some yips. I would like to see him play more than half a season though, gees he is not lucky on the injury front. Our midfield definitely let us down on Saturday as Franklin and Tippett were barely seen in the 4th quarter.
lyn
Guest
I suppose you think that the Collingwood supporters should turn up and pay exorbitant prices when the rest of the footy supporters have dropped off going and constantly whinge about the cost for families and the price of beer, pies etc. A side note:- even C'wood supporters have to prepare for the working week ahead and the best time to do that is Sunday night, whilst watching the game in front of the Tele.
Don Freo
Guest
Bugger! Last time you had Freo 4th. We'd prefer an away final against Sydney than Hawthorn. The second final at Subi against NM will suit us fine.
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
I commented somewhere else on here that the Swans 12 in a row hadn't been outstanding. They had been good in patches, even in the Geelong win which was a second half mauling. On Saturday night, there was a period of 15min where either the Hawks forward pressure kicked in, or the Swans hit the wall, and a quality side over ran them. This is in no way to down play the Swans. This is in no way to down play the Hawks. The Swans have not played their best footy yet. And Saturday night was another example of this. I also predicted the Swans would win every game on the way in, but I did say this was the one they could likely drop. I think they will win their remaining games and hold onto top spot but only by percentage. It is 1 a piece between these two heavyweights. And at this point in time it is daylight 3rd. Freo need to prove themselves against a contender after losing to the Saints. A win over Carlton won't do it for me. Perhaps a win over Geelong at Skilled might put them back in the frame.They have to keep winning if they are a fair dinkum finals contender. Geelong need to topple Freo and Hawthorn for mine. I love the Cats, but if they drop either of these they simply can't turn that around in September. 3 years ago they could have but not now. I'm still writing off the others. Sydney 72 Hawthorn 72 Fremantle 64 Geelong 64 Port Adelaide 60 Adelaide 56 Essendon 56 North Melbourne 52
AB
Guest
I agree Michael, Swans and Hawks both look awesome this year, in very different ways. Sydney loaded with superstars, Hawks perhaps the most even, best-coached team I've ever seen. Either would be a worthy premier. But Geelong are the dark horse in all this. They could easily snatch another flag this year. Can't write off Freo either, although I reckon they're not quite in the same league as the big three.
Radelaide
Guest
Well they did have a holden sponsored cheering banner on the big screen that Pie fans thought was cheesy trying to generate noise from the crowd, much like how at Crow home games they actually play crowd noise over the speakers to make it sound louder than it is. Probably another idea from Nigel not so.
Michael huston
Guest
Agree Jack. It's impossible to declare Sydney or Hawthorn better than the other. They're too different. I think they could just as likely win the flag as the Swans could. Hawthorn were at least blessed with good timing in regards to their injuries. By the time finals come around, they'll be virtually full strength, as opposed to Sydney, whose players were dropping like flies on a weekly basis in September last year. Hopefully both sides can get their best side on the park for the finals. They're the most exciting to watch, and an even battle is what would make it all the more intriguing. Out of curiosity Jack, how did you think Tippett looked in his first game back in a while? His marking was strong, even against strong bodies like Stratton and Gibson. I think he really cannot afford another injury, at least not this year.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Swans - masters of trying to not look like the favourites. Kieran Jack declared Hawks the team to beat, despite sitting higher than them on the ladder and only just having ended a 12 game streak. Swans have never liked the favourite tag and pounce at every opportunity to get rid of it. For one reason or another, we like underdog status. I don't give a stuff about being seen as the favourite, although, it makes it a lot more bearable when you lose...
Aransan
Guest
Darren, you can put your house on it and make 20% or so overnight, on the other hand ...
Geoff Lemon
Expert
Sounded pretty loud when the Pies hit the front late in the game.
Geoff Lemon
Expert
He's still developing, don't expect too much from him week to week. It can be a bit of a curse in some ways for a forward to have a massive game, because then everyone expects them to kick eight every week. But it's good to see him starting to look at home.
Darren
Guest
Sydney will win easily this week.
Franko
Guest
Gotta agree with Christo here. Would have thought the Collingwood faithful would have been chomping at the bit having not had a game the previous weekend, seems it was not so, in fact the Crows seemed to have plenty there. Next week they play Port, expect a similar crowd, then away, then home to Brisbane where they can expect a worse crowd... (And yes, this is unashamed Collingwood bashing :) )
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
Geoff not Jeff (apologies).
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
Carlisle showed last year he had the chops to play up forward. Many thought it was a mistake to play him there this year, including lots of Essendon supporters. He's just needed time to nail it down as a full-time role it seems and Essendon are now reaping the rewards.
Aransan
Guest
Will the umpires pay free kicks when they are there? Will he be double and triple teamed? I will be happy if he kicks 4 goals but the attention given to him may give other forwards opportunities. If the ball doesn't come down often don't be surprised to see him playing up the ground. I think Essendon can cover Tippett and Franklyn (to the extent that anyone can, anyway) but I am worried about Goodes. It seems that the football world hadn't heard much about Carlisle before his last two games, Essendon have known for a couple of years that they had a great talent with him but the question was "could he play forward?" That question has now been answered. I am now seeing responses along the lines "we don't think he is that good but would you swap him for an A-grade midfielder?" Keep dreaming!
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
Yep, I know Jeff is sceptical about the effects of the bye, but I reckon Essendon coming off that long a break is an advantage for Sydney. How do you reckon will Carlisle go at the SCG? Could he get to double figures on that little postage stamp ground?
Truth
Guest
It finished at 8 on a Sunday night, if you had of put it on at any other time, would have drawn a much larger crowd. Apart from the grand final preview, it was the highest drawing crowd for the round.
Aransan
Guest
So, if the marginal finals side Essendon beat Sydney on Friday it will be due to the fact that they have a 12 day break against 6 for Sydney. Talk about flying under the radar!
Christo the Daddyo
Guest
Hmmm..., I'm not convinced about that. Last season the same game attracted just under 55k. The time-slot may well have cost them a bit in terms of crowd figures, but I don't think there would have been "60k there easy". But the game show host keeps telling everyone how committed Collingwood fans are. Turns out they're only committed if they get a rigged draw and play all their games at the MCG at 2pm on a Saturday afternoon.