I have been genuinely surprised to read and hear suggestion that Michael Cheika’s team will start the Super Rugby final as anything other than favourites.
The Waratahs finished the season in top spot, scored the most tries by some margin, and conceded the second fewest in the competition.
They’ve comfortably been the best team in the competition in the back half of the season, too, and go into the final on an eight-game winning streak.
Then there’s the perfect record at home this season, including two of their biggest wins of the year coming at ANZ Stadium, over the Reds and Brumbies. In fact, their Homebush record this season has them posting 71 points, while conceding just 13. Ten tries scored and just two let in.
There’s a lot of talk about the Waratahs giving up home ground advantage by playing at Homebush, but since Michael Cheika’s tenure began, they’ve won three of four games there. The one game they dropped was to the Reds, by two points, in the last round of last year.
By my rough, manual trawl through results, the Waratahs’ record at ANZ Stadium appears to be six wins from ten games dating back to 2009. Their overall record in Sydney in that same time is 34 wins from 46 games, and 15 from 17 games under Cheika, including 9 straight wins this year – a pretty imposing record.
Home ground advantage accounted for 85 wins from the 120 regular season games in 2014, and is four-from-four in the playoffs already.
In the 18 previous Super Rugby deciders, the last team to win away from home was the Bulls in 2007, when they beat the Sharks in Durban. It’s only happened three other times, and coincidently, all three were the Crusaders, between 1998 and 2000.
Since the advent of the conference format, the away team has won just 4 of the 19 playoff games to date.
So why aren’t the Waratahs overwhelming favourites already?
Considering the time it took the Crusaders to properly get into the season, it was really only since their bye in Round 11 that they started to come good. And while they did win six of eight matches after their last bye, the Waratahs were well established as the competition pacesetters by then.
There were still a few question marks after the Crusaders lost the Hurricanes in Round 17, too.
So what’s the reasoning? It can’t all be because of the 11-game losing streak to the Crusaders, can it?
Of the 11 games, which stretch back to 2005 and include both finals played between these two sides in 2005 and 2008, only 4 have been played in Sydney. The most recent loss, in Round 16 last year, was by just a point, and the Waratahs scored three tries to two.
There’s certainly no questioning the character of the Crusaders. If anyone is capable of causing a boil-over in the decider, it’s them. And indeed, their character and culture has got them home numerous times this year where they won several games that they perhaps weren’t entitled to. The ability to win games while not playing brilliant rugby is not something to be sneezed at, either.
But the Waratahs aren’t exactly lacking in character department, either. Depending on your stats source of choice, the Tahs spent between 65 per cent and 80 per cent of the second 40 in their own half. Rucking Good Stats had the ball in the Waratahs’ 22 for 35 per cent of the second half alone.
The Waratahs defended as well as any team I can recall this season, in any game. To force eight errors from the Brumbies in their 13 entries to the Waratahs’ 22 for the match was literally match-winning, no better exemplified than the twin try-saving tackles from scrumhalf Nick Phipps, on Tevita Kuridrani and Robbie Coleman in opposite corners during the second half.
On reflection, the second of those Phipps tackles was the turning point in the match, rather than Kurtley Beale’s steal from Jesse Mogg five minutes beforehand. Had the Brumbies been able to hit back after Beale’s try, its effect would’ve been minimised.
If defence really does win finals, as we’ve come to expect, then I can’t see how the Waratahs prevailing in the more intense, decidedly more physical semi-final doesn’t put them in the box seat on Saturday night.
The Crusaders are back in that groove of turning opportunities into tries, but they won’t get anywhere near as many chances from the Tahs as they did from the generous Sharks.
This is the Waratahs’ best chance for a maiden Super Rugby title, and I can’t see them starting as underdogs.
Riwai Grace
Guest
Nice article Brett. Tahs are very deserving of being favourites after a stella season. I believe having home advantage is a huge help as well. I for one enjoy reading good balanced reporting especailly from across the ditch, nice to hear views from the old foes :) I think it will be a close game and it doesnt really matter what happned last week as both teams will be up for this one for sure. To all of our Tahs friends especially the Crowleys from Dubbo I wish you good luck and hope your team does you proud Riwai Christchurch
Tricky
Guest
So, the Waratahs have won 6 of the last 10 matches at Homebush? Which means they have only just won over half their games at that stadium, and most of those against inferior Australian teams. They have also lost 11 times in a row against the Crusaders, who have been involved in more Super Rugby finals than any other team. Probably also worth mentioning that McCaw and Carter win over 90% of their matches when they both take to the field. Yeah, difficult to see why the Waratahs are the underdog hey.
stillmatic1
Guest
exactly 44bottles, these guys simply don't have any semblance of coherency with their thought processes. good for the goose then good for the gander, springs to mind........ surely in order for any team to smash the other, the team getting smashed wont be playing to well, would they? maybe this year, teams that played the tahs underestimated them a bit and got what they deserved, but knew what to expect from the saders and played accordingly.
Perthstayer
Roar Rookie
It's the form. I'm not Tahs fan but they've been on fire for a good stretch and if they sustain those levels then they should win - based purely on the fact their form "from last week and the week before that etc." has shown they win when they do. What has happened before does count. When pressure rises good teams don't panic as they know from past performances that when they go through their moves they'll reclaim ascendancy. It means you are not second guessing and hoping. I don't think the Tahs form will bother Crusaders but it doesn't have to.
44bottles
Roar Guru
I understand why you picked that side, but going purely off of the positions they're actually playing (including forwards because I don't want to make two replies) I would go. 1. Crockett (over Robinson) 2. TPN (over Flynn) 3. Franks (over Kepu) 4. Potgieter (over Bird) 5. Whitelock (over Douglas) 6. McCaw (over Hoiles) 7. Hooper (over Todd) 8. Read (over Palu) 9. Ellis (over Phibbs) 10. Foley (over Slade) 11. Nadolo (over Horne) 12. Carter (over Beale) 13. AAC (over Crotty) 14. Alofa (over Fonotia) 15. Folau (over Dagg) and for added bonus, bench 16. Flynn 17. Robinson 18. Kepu 19. Skelton 20. Todd/Palu 21. Phibbs 22. Beale 23. Crotty Didn't really have a criteria for the bench though.
44bottles
Roar Guru
I understand why you picked that side, but going purely off of the positions they're actually playing (including forwards because I don't want to make two replies) I would go. 1. Crockett (over Robinson) 2. TPN (over Flynn) 3. Franks (over Kepu) 4. Potgieter (over Bird) 5. Whitelock (over Douglas) 6. McCaw 7. Hooper 8. Read 9. Ellis 10. Foley 11. Nadolo 12. Carter 13. AAC 14. Alofa 15. Folau
Common Sense
Guest
"A Waratahs win this weekend will go a long way towards a strong Wallaby performance in the Rugby Championship. It could even lay the platform for an elusive Bledisloe Cup victory."
Jak
Guest
I agree, although it will be more of a stroll than a canter.
RobC
Roar Guru
Thanks for the article. Tahs to win! Bookies agree Im surprised their kicking coach openly barracked the Crusaders. Poor form, and judgement
RobC
Roar Guru
Thanks for the article. Tahs to win! Bookies agree Im surprised their kicking coach opened barracked the Crusaders. Poor form, and judgement
Trent
Guest
"So why aren’t the Waratahs overwhelming favourites already?" Check every betting market on the Super Rugby final. The Waratahs are starting as clear favourites. I get that every NSW rugby fan is pretty excited at the moment but this article is based on something which is not true.
44bottles
Roar Guru
Wow, and you still try to say you're not talking them down. Sio was ahead of Robinson for 4 games then he got dropped. Alexander was ahead of Kepu, got injured for a couple of games, and when he came back he wasn't good enough to displace him., making Kepu the incumbent Palu was the incumbent 8 coming back from injury, Mowen was a placeholder. Dennis was bench for all of EOYT but you weren't using bench to justify your argument so it doesn't matter. You can't cherry pick half your argument off of this years wallabies and half off of last years.
44bottles
Roar Guru
At the very least he has to do better than this guy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-ofRXIFIUk
44bottles
Roar Guru
I might start referring to them as the QANTASs now Common Sense. See how long before I get backlash
Hauraki
Guest
Your dreaming mate - not a single Waratah front rower to make a composite side. None of the NSW front row would ever get a look in at the ABs - not that they are'nt good players - and they may well be the ones smiling late Saturday night
Hauraki
Guest
Crusades did face the Brumbies this year, and it wasnt pretty for ACT - 40-20 flattering the Brumbies. that said - as a kiwi - I think this Waratahs team (finally) look like the goods
Hauraki
Guest
Travis Bolste
Guest
I totally agree thats a very good point that i never thought about. but are you saying that if the waratah's were to play the rebels or any team that didn't do that well. would you the same thing.
Jerry
Guest
Catchy!
Nick Cross
Guest
Did you see his defence v highlanders game in Dunedin?