The Waratahs are hosting the Crusaders in what is shaping to be a sorely mismatched Super Rugby final this weekend.
One of these teams has been playing a sensational style of rugby that could be the blue-print for taking the game forward into the next decade. The other side is the Crusaders.
I never thought it possible to say those last two sentences together.
No other side could have survived Saturday night’s onslaught at the hands of a reinvigorated Brumbies side. I was impressed by the Brumbies’ ability to dominate field position but I was blown away with how the Waratahs remained in control of the game through almost impenetrable defence.
The Tahs are one of the best ever defensive sides in Super Rugby. Yet they are also one of the greatest attacking outfits at the same time. It is not surprising they have achieved the best points difference in the history of the competition.
The Waratahs have four metre-gaining forwards who are going to give the Crusaders a shellacking. The Crusaders have only Kieran Read who can return the fire.
From the regular season stats on Fox Sports: Read averaged 60 run metres per 80 minutes this season. Wycliff Palu averaged almost as much, 58 run metres per 80 minutes. However Palu made more than twice as many tackle busts (18) as Read (7) without playing a great deal more minutes, and he is producing quality offloads. Plus Palu does his work much tighter, whereas Read makes his metres out wider.
Richie McCaw is a fantastic player, he makes a lot of tackles and does more than his fair share at the breakdown. But so does Michael Hooper.
The difference is Hooper averaged 52 run metres per 80 minutes with 36 season tackle busts this year. McCaw averaged exactly half that, 26 run metres, with 3 season tackle busts. McCaw played less than half the minutes of Hooper, but he would have had to have made 500 per cent more tackle busts just to break even.
It starts to get worse when you consider that Palu and Hooper aren’t even the premier metre gainers of the Waratahs pack. Jacques Poitgeter averaged a mammoth 65 run metres per 80 minutes this year, and Will Skelton averaged 69. The next best for the Crusaders is Matt Todd, who averaged 36 run metres.
They Tahs also have four world class backs who can do the same out wide.
Israel Folau is averaging 108 run metres per 80 minutes, including 46 tackle busts and 11 line-breaks. In comparison his opposite, Israel Dagg, averaged 59 run metres, made 26 tackle busts and 8 line-breaks from a lot more minutes on the field. When you consider Dagg has scored one try to Folau’s 12, we can put to bed any notion that Dagg is Folau’s equal.
Adam Ashley-Cooper averaged a fantastic 75 run metres per 80 minutes, made 52 tackle busts and a fantastic 14 line-breaks along the way. His main threat, Ryan Crotty, averaged 61 run metres, 50 tackle busts, and 10 line-breaks.
The other impressive thing the Waratahs have which the Crusdaers don’t is a 10 and 12 who are also eating up the run metres. Bernard Foley and Kurtley Beale run tighter lines, so they are never going to be up there with Folau, but both are averaging a lot more run metres than their rivals.
Foley averaged a whopping 73 run metres per 80 minutes from fly-half, with 46 tackle busts and 12 line breaks. He also topped the competiton for points scored.
Beale, who has scored two more tries than Foley with eight this year, also averaged a very good 62 run metres, with 29 tackle busts and an equal 12 line-breaks.
We can’t compare this with Dan Carter, as he was on sabbatical for most of the season, but if he had’ve played all season, he may have scored more points than Foley and created more opportunities than Beale but he is not a player who can make those sorts of metres week-in, week-out.
Colin Slade’s numbers tell a compelling story. An average 42 run metres per 80 minutes and 27 tackle busts, with 6 line-breaks, from almost as many minutes as the Waratahs’ inside backs, says the Crusaders don’t have the firepower through those inside channels either.
It would be about now that Crusaders fans and Waratah haters in general should play the Nemani Nadolo card. Nadolo averaged 99 metres per 80 minutes, which is a bit less than Folau but almost as impressive. Even more so when considered he made 54 tackle busts and 17 line-breaks with almost as many tries as Folau. He is their trump card and the Waratahs need to keep him away from the action. Rob Horne in comparison has averaged a very healthy 70 run metres, with 29 tackle busts and 7 line breaks.
It leaves us with the strange feeling that this final could be very one-sided in the opposite way that popular belief would have us think.
For most people this week will be about convincing themselves that it is the Crusaders who hold all the trump cards. For mine they hold maybe 3, while the Waratahs hold eight!
Waratahs to run away with it in the final 20 minutes and win by 14. You heard it here first.
Gasparin
Guest
They are Australian television stations, Da Boom. Perhaps we should saturate our coverage with tributes to the magnificent Kiwis, just as you guys continually salute the great past Wallaby teams in your local broadcasts (insert sarcastic tone). The problem here is that there are many Kiwis pa(trolling) Aussie sites determined to take offence at our patriotism and excitement about the game they play in heaven. Our love of the Wallabies does not diminish our respect for the All Blacks, nor does it erase your amazing history. It does however, give us a glimmer of hope.
sesenta y cuatro
Roar Pro
This article is nonsense. There are many things that both coaches will look at for this final, and the author of this article has only focused in ball carrying. Let's suppose he had focused in past games between those two (like betting houses do), then he may have concluded the Waratahs were heading to an ambush. It's not one stat that wins a game, it's a lot of things. Home factor favours the home side, experience favours the kiwis. Crusaders have a better set piece, the tahs are better ball in hand. Crusaders can kick better, the Waratahs score more tries... I could accept that the Waratahs are favourites, even hot favourites... if the whole argument made sense. But taking only the carrying statistics and predict a hiding based only on that is something a 6 years old can better
Riwai Grace
Guest
Nicely Said - It is actually nice to read posts on here when people arent attacking each others comments Will be a cracker of a game for sure :)
bennalong
Guest
The history of the Crusaders is fantastic and I welcomed Robbie Deans as Wallabies coach because under his coaching they played a form of rugby I regard as perfect rugby. That was then but this is now. This is not the same Crusaders and Tod Blackadder is not Robbie Deans. The return of Richie McCaw and Keiren Read certainly adds starch to the forwards and Dan Carter's skills cannot be questioned, but the latter's recent addition to the backline in an unfamiliar position cannot be seen as ideal. The experience can't be doubted but the fact that the Tahs have played together without such changes IMO more than counters that experience. We're talking about confidence here and winning eight on the trot with the same team mates in the same positions allows for the running game that has marked the rise and rise of the Tahs. The Saders certainly won comprehensively against the Sharks but Jake White's boys played like they were sleep deprived. They have not played the Tahs this year and would have been well served if the real Sharks had turned up as they did earlier to give them a power game type of trial. If the Tahs win the toss and score early I think the Saders my be surprised by an intensity in physical confrontation I have never seen from Australian forewards, including the Wallabies. While I know the result is going to come after an intense contest I can't take seriously the idea from so many Kiwis that we shouldn't look back over the season and feel that the Saders are invincible, or that somehow history matters. It didn't worry the Tahs when they faced the Chiefs. I expect the Tahs to play with even more intensity and if they do the Saders will have to pull the game out of the bag. I'm not sure they can
Coconut
Guest
Call me a fan-boy if you like, but Richie has some kind of a ticker in him, the likes of which I have never seen in rugby (with the exception of maybe Buck Shelford, but then Richies been at it much longer than Buck now)... its not that he plays with injuries, as others have pointed out here, this is fairly commonplace in professional rugby, but it is his ability to play at such a high tempo despite having had substantial time out of the game, with or without injuries, his workrate is phenomenal. All other rugby supporters love to hate him, but I'll wager most of 'em would give their left nut to have him playing for their team. He has a monster engine in him mate, I tell ya.
Jerry
Guest
Yeah, but the AB's had the last laugh on Gregan. It took 8 more years, not 4. In your FACE, Gregan.
Lord Bledisloe
Guest
i heard Richie say 15 more years to gregan when we won the bledisloe back in the day, so far so good...
KIBUI BUTT
Roar Rookie
I would like to see Pedro come up with the scores to that game....
soapit
Guest
he's putting forward evidence (good or bad) to support his opinion so he's mounting an argument. i suppose we just have to expect those traits until you either start losing at rugby or nz starts following some different sports. i would say though it comes across more as precious than cocky.
soapit
Guest
yeah ni surprise that it all comes from clark not being able to comprehend a situation where australia was actually a genuine and worthy favourite. one of the good things about new zealand rugby that its followed by people from all walks and abilities.
Charging Rhino
Roar Guru
I wish I could answer your question Peter. I have no idea, but 'pathetic' is certainly the right word to use. I think they just had one of those days where everything goes wrong from the 1st minute. Like they did in the 2012 Final against the Chiefs.
pick & go..!!
Guest
WEST, 2013 Palu played in all three tests against the British & Irish Lions Series. Basically on one leg, torn cartilage in his right knee. Now his peers also voted him as the best Player in that series "the lion tamer"..
pick & go..!!
Guest
Here is another meaningless statistic. The soccer world cup Final Argentina vs Germany 2014. Argentinas Lionel Messi has won the best player in the world award a record 4-times. How many did Germany have. None! Not one I tell you. Lol
SAVAGE
Guest
Say whatever you like, but the Tahs are up against the team that reinvented the word "Pressure". Compared to the Brumbies this time, the Crusaders will apply their own in the set piece and territory, you guys can talk all you like about defense, don't forget, the Crusaders at their best, use defense as a weapon as well, and if you've watched this game long enough, all of you would agree with that. But then judging by some of the comments on here, there's alot of wishful thinking, and crotch grabbing from people who sound like they've only just started watching rugby. I don't mind you guys bragging about your team, but at least apply some thinking to it. I hope the Tahs win, it's about time you skippys had something to brag about, and god knows NZ has all but carried your game for the last 15 years. Time to stand on your own two feet and grab the bull by the horns and take him down.............if you can.
PeterK
Roar Guru
Jimmy - You are so wrong its not funny. Show me where I am a fanboy, where I extoll how great the tahs, wallabies or australian / waratah players are? I have criticised this article if you have noticed but probably not through your filter of bias. I have indicated where the crusaders strengths over the tahs and the tactics for them to use to maxmise their chances of a win. Unlike a lot of kiwi posters I actually give credit to both sides and consider both sides. I have not denigrated NZ players or teams either in this thread (in other threads I have great issue with cynical infringing). I have called to account kiwi arrogant posters like you though. So keep being an arrogant troll then.
Common Sense
Roar Rookie
That's it, PeterK has gone over the edge. Someone break out the tranquilizers to even this man out and calm him down.
Jimmy from Dunedin
Guest
You are so hypocritical it's bordering on delusion
Jimmy from Dunedin
Guest
Yes Hooper is a player. But I'd really like you to explain how I "derided" him.
Jimmy from Dunedin
Guest
But the quote he took wasn't me deriding you though was it, even though I did, he didn't quote… Thus my argument with that stands. You are completely right, I did "deride" you, although I wouldn't say deride, more point out the obvious. Calling me a fan boy is very hypocritical, a brief look at your comments proves my point. You, along with this article are a mirror image of what you are criticising myself for and other kiwi supporters for. If this article is blowing your own trumpet, I don't know what is. In the next couple of weeks you will prove my point beautifully. If the waratahs win, you won't shut up. If the crusaders win, you will probably say something along the lines of, the best team won on the day, well done tahs on a great season, but I really with the Kiwis would be a bit more humble". You, like you so eloquently described me, are a troll. But not nearly as shifty and you come pretty close to my level of arrogance.
Richard Egan
Guest
What the hell are you smoking or ingesting. You are probably a first year convert to the "CHESS" of football codes.Come Saturday evening there will be forty six gladiators on the paddock PLUS two teams of ruthless coaching talent. NSW will be facing the most long term superb "CRUSADERS" gladiators. We will be fielding a potential successor. Correct odds probably 50/50 if both teams play to their potential. I have been a rugby tragic since 1959 and whilst my fervent desire is a Waratah victory it will be achieved, possibly, after a mammoth battle. We are not talking five tackles and a kick but eighty minutes of strategy and competition for the "PILL"