The AFL is now one short month away from September, the home of the AFL finals. So what are the premiership odds of all 18 teams? Where do all teams ambitions lay for the final month of the premiership season?
Sydney (35 per cent)
No, don’t give them the premiership yet. No, they do not have one hand on the cup. No, they haven’t proven anything of significance in 2014 yet. No, you can stop their forward line despite talk to the contrary. No, they aren’t the most determined side in the premiership race. Despite all the nos, are they the heavy favourite? Yes.
Geelong (20 per cent)
While their form has been less than inspiring, the reality is Geelong are on the verge of another top-four finish. Does any team really want to play this battle hardened team in finals?
The answer is no and that that’s what makes Geelong a threat. On top this is a different team to even the 2011 premiership side and there are enough new faces that want retribution for two disappointing finals exits in 2012 and 2013.
It is the new blood that will drive Geelong’s title chances in August and September.
Fremantle (15 per cent)
History tells us that you have to finish top four to be a premiership threat. Fremantle at the moment have checked that marker off. Next step will be top two. For Fremantle top two is as big as it gets as for any of the top five contenders given their home ground advantage.
That top two is still in play. If they need retribution stories, they have a good one in the San Antonio Spurs. Ross, need Patty Mills number?
Hawthorn (13 per cent)
Premiership defences are hard. Ask Hawthorn and they will tell you they are impossible. The positive is that at least they are going to have the right to defend their title in finals this year which was not the case in 2009.
They are staring to be overrun with injury and bad luck approaching the pointy end of the season. Some say 13 is unlucky, Hawthorn say winning in 2013 is unlucky.
Port Adelaide (8 per cent)
One of the better recent comparisons has been of Port Adelaide against the 2008 Hawks, a team that had previous finals experience yet stunned a premiership ahead of their time.
The form line does not testament a premiership contender, however top four is still in their sights and that breeds hope. The 8 per cent figure is a tribute to that Hawthorn team of 2008.
North Melbourne (5 per cent)
If they are to defeat Geelong in Round 19, and perhaps they are favourites to win that match, North Melbourne will be the only team that goes into the finals having had wins against each of the top five teams.
That in itself is an impressive feat. More hopeful for North Melbourne fans is that only the top eight teams contest finals. If it was contested between the bottom eight you would give North Melbourne no shot on 2014 form.
Adelaide (2 per cent)
2 per cent chance is one percent for each premiership they have won from outside the top four which is what they would need to do again in 2014. After being on the outside looking in, they snuck their way into the right at the right time of the year.
Their form in recent weeks indicates of one that could make some noise if they can remain in eighth spot on the ladder. Further incentive for Adelaide to make finals is to set up a mouth watering elimination final clash against Port Adelaide. Save from winning a premiership knocking Port out of finals would be a solid B option.
Gold Coast (1 per cent)
The only hope Gold Coast had of winning a premiership in 2014 was Gary Ablett junior emulating his father’s finals deeds from 1989 and going a step further on that campaign. The moment Ablett’s shoulder hit the Metricon turf was the moment the Gold Coast went from silly chance to one in a hundred.
Collingwood (1 per cent)
Out of form at the wrong time of the year, it appears that Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley cannot piece a season together. Again a slow start, a strong middle and a lukewarm end leaves Collingwood needing a back to the wall performance to back their 2010 premiership with another success.
West Coast, Richmond, Carlton, Western Bulldogs
The second stage of tanking in the AFL with two of these four teams going to ‘win’ the right to 13th and 14th place on the ladder. A position on the ladder which theoretically comes with the best upside of seeing a sharp one season improvement given the AFL’s new fixture model that bases the 2015 fixture of three pools of 2014. Fight it out boys, 13th place here they come.
GWS, Melbourne, Brisbane, St Kilda
Better luck next year, welcome to the chase for the wooden spoon.
John F
Guest
Michael Justins ....are you on drugs ?? Geelong TOP 4 ??? WOWeeee ummm, NO !! Their 7-0 in games <12 pts in 2014 home and away could easily have been 0-7! That would have seen them finish outside the 8 with 10wins ! FOR ME, it's straightforward Top 8 IS Port Freo Syd North Hawks West Coast Adelaide Gold Coast DONE !!
Michael justins
Guest
As a Collingwood supporter any one except Coll can win the 2015 AFl premiership.The Hawks should be favourites and will go close again. My team the magpies under Nathan can't coach Buckley will finish on the bottom. Unless Eddie McGuire stops sticking his nose into every other club's businesses, also the AFl'S the magpies will never win a flag anytime soon. First he need's to sack Nathan Buckley and get a new coach. Ed has egg on his face the succession plan from Malthouse to Buckley has failed 100%. As long as Buck's is coach i will never ever go to the football live to watch my beloved pies live in action. Buckley has single handed ruined Collingwood. News for Nathan Buckley get out now the Magpie army hate you.!!!!!!!! Hawthorn have a good coach so do Port Adelaide as you can see their player play for the coach.Not like our beloved oies they centanly will never ever play for the coach the can't stand him. 2015 my tip is Hawthorn, Port Adelaide Sydney and Geelong as the top 4 sides with the hawks winning it again. Bottom of the ladder will be Collingwood or bottom 4 anyway. Buck's must go now sacked before the start of the new season. If Ed won't sack Buck's he should stand down as president. if he does not sack buck's the magpie army will sack Ed.
Don Freo
Guest
You seem to think SS and Hawks have won more games than Geelong. Your reading form is subjective and flawed.
Michael huston
Guest
Agreed Gene. It's best to guess who WILL win the flag, rather than who WON'T win the flag.
Cat
Roar Guru
For me at least, its not who is heavy favorites, I could care less about it, its when teams with legit chances get completely written off, Geelong, Port and Freo, may have less of a chance than Sydney or Hawthorn, how much is debatable, but its certainly not 0% like a number of articles and posters were stating last week.
Michael huston
Guest
I love the different criteria folks have when considering flag favourites. Personally, I look at form throughout the season. The teams that look most convincing are usually the best. That is simply why I'm tipping the Hawks and Swans ahead of Freo and Geelong. There's no reason why that logic shouldn't be valid. That's not to rule out Freo and Geelong. All they'd have to do is get to the grand final and play a brilliant game of footy and it's as much theirs as anyone elses. But Freo and Geelong fans need to understand the reasoning behind peoples predictions. You can't really argue that Sydney and Hawthorn (when fully fit) have been the best. For all we know, the tables could turn and Freo and Geelong could strike some terrific form in late August/September, but right now, don't be so offended/concerned your teams not being backed as the heavy favourite. It's not inconceivable to think the betting companies are actually pretty much reflective of the teams right now.
John Fedec
Guest
This is is easy :) TOP 5 is 100 %, rest is ZERO now !!! SO Geelong probably can't win it if they have to go interstate (ie, PS,ANZ,SCG,AO) Are Sydney 100% playing a home final at ANZ ?? I'm sure they'd prefer SCG !years to Hawthorn haven't traveled for a final either ! How would they go in week 1 travelling ?? Port/Sydney/Fremantle have all won away final/s in the last few years! (Sydney/Fremantle have both won 2 !, not counting GF's) I'd say Hawthorn/Geelong need top 2 more than Sydney/Fremantle would.. Still We'll know more by Round 20's end Port vs Sydney AO Geelong vs Fremantle SS I'm tipping Port in a thriller, and Fremantle to once again beat the cats :)
Shane
Guest
HH, HT, TH, TT. Thats 25% chance of getting two heads in two tosses. 50% for one head for one toss. But what has that got to do with the outcome of a football game other than who kicks which way first?
Don Freo
Guest
Let them play each other with all their returning players back and have that conversation after the game. ATM Freo is better....in my opinion. Playing other will sort it out.
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
The coaching thing is probably more to do with the attractiveness of having a premiership or GF on your cv when applying for a coaching job.
Natalie Swansfan
Guest
I'm watching the Cats v North right now honey. Probably watch just as much footy as you do, more than the hubby :-) Show me something other than your whingy comments about COLA and perhaps support your fits of laughter with some evidence that suggeys I'm wrong. I dare you.
Bosk
Roar Rookie
"Swannies are far more disciplined than any other team"...excuse me while I suppress fits of laughter! Still its nice of you to make it so abundantly clear to us not only which team you follow but that you make a point of never watching games which don't involve your beloved Swans. I could go to the trouble to refute each of your 'arguments', but honestly why bother when you're so hopelessly biased no amount evidence would change your mind? Anyway keep telling yourself Sydney's made it to the top of the ladder off their own bat without AFL assistance, whatever helps you sleep at night kiddo.
Trev
Guest
I actually supported Sydneys COLA but it's wasn't given too them in order to spend on 1 or 2 players like Franklin and Tippett. It was aimed at being spread over their playing list to hopefully prevent interstate players being poached.
Me Too
Guest
Hawks 40% Swans 30% Freo 13% Cats 10% Port 5% North 2% The Hawks still with more top shelf players to return and beat the Swans at the G last week. Very surprised if one of those two don't win it. Less surprised if only one makes it. Hawks deserve it given all that has happened this season - but that means naught to the dice roller in the sky.
Bosk
Roar Rookie
I was always under the impression that agencies and bookies give odds to punters based not only on who they think will actually win, but as an incentive for punters to place bets on the teams & horses the bookies think won't. As a result it seems a tad naive to take betting odds at face value and assume they present an accurate picture of which team has the best chance of going home with the silverware.
Natalie Swansfan
Guest
COLA - no proof that this has had any impact on the Swans since it's inception. Have won 2 flags in 81 years. If it's such a big advantage, the AFL has failed in their attempts!! NSW Player Academy - it's called the Swans Academy and so far it has produced one listed AFL player. Massive advantage NSW Ambassador program - only someone that doesn't want to see the game grow nationally and see more players enter the draft out of greater Sydney would make negative comments about this initiative. (The wambulance is screaming all through your post Boosk) The draw - developed the year before based on ladder position. Not the Swannies fault teams expected to maintain or improve on previous years underperform. MRP - given all the other factors you constantly whinge about on this website, you would include this. Perhaps take a look at how often Swannies players actual go to the tribunal. Very little. They are far more disciplined than any other team.
Anthony
Guest
Surely Bosk is really Eddie???
Bosk
Roar Rookie
Sydney have been given every conceivable advantage possible by the AFL. - COLA - NSW player academy - NSW Ambassador program - Easiest draw of any top 4 team of last year - Free pass at the MRP to get away with almost anything Given the NSW "Ambassador" payments that go to Goodes & Jack amount to 500k+ each, along with the COLA they represent almost $2million per year Swans players are paid more than their southern state rivals. A 20% advantage in player payments is absolutely monstrous given the context of how even the sport has become. A Swans premiership would be nothing more than a farce. Something engineered by the AFL purely due to how desperate it is to promote the game in NSW and swell the value of the TV Rights accordingly. The Sydney Swans will never, ever be taken seriously so long as they continue to receive so much assistance.
Tim
Guest
You certainly know your stuff EddyJ- probably the most informed comment made
EddyJ
Guest
Any comment that includes reference to COLA can be safely ignored, as they are usually ill-informed, and the debate about COLA has been dealt with ad nauseum on these pages. Just out of interest, since 1992, there are only two premiership coaches that haven't played in a grand final (as a player). Denis Pagan and Alastair Clarkson, or four from 21 seasons. Not sure what that means, but it's not looking good for Ross Lyon. Form has to be a big consideration, but you'd have to go for Hawthorn vs Sydney for the grand final, then Fremantle. Port and Geelong, of course, have a chance, but not much. You can forget about the rest, based on form, quality, and previous statistics – since 2000, no team outside the top four had made it to the grand final and since 1994, when the top 8 was established, only Adelaide in 1998 (fifth) has made it through. A lot of people have been saying Geelong are too old, and the era is over, and I do agree. They have really struggled against lesser teams (while still winning), and been thrashed by top teams (Sydney, Fremantle, Port Adelaide). It's not all of this can be cast aside during the finals, a switch is flicked and then all of a sudden, Geelong become the team of 2007 all over again. Experience does matter, but there are three other teams that have surpassed Geelong. Port Adelaide are not quite there yet, their form has been mediocre for too long recently (a last gasp win over Melbourne doesn't augur very well for this season, and the three preceding losses in a row). West Coast were thrashed by 76 points at Geelong, a few weeks before the finals in 2006, but that was just a one-off – Port Adelaide haven't got what it takes for this season, but are building up for 2015.