How would you like to be in the running to make the NRL finals and have two games against Canberra in the last five rounds? That is what the often-weird competition draw has thrown up for Parramatta.
If you’re an Eels fan you must be rubbing your hands together at the thought of getting not one, but two games against a Raiders outfit that is playing poorly and has significant injury problems on top of that.
Parramatta play Canberra next weekend, in an Eels home game the club has taken to Darwin, and again in Canberra in the final round.
The Eels should be able to count on four points from those two games. The presence of Jarryd Hayne in their side should be enough on its own to guarantee that.
How are the Raiders, in the state they’re in, going to stop him from having a big impact against them?
Four points from those two games would take Parramatta to 28 points, with six other points available from games against Canterbury (a home played the club has taken to ANZ Stadium), Manly (at home) and Newcastle away.
To make the finals you generally need at least 28 points, but the Eels – if they do the double against Canberra – might have to get something out of at least one of those other three games to be sure of a place.
They are the only team among the top 10 on the competition table with a points differential that is in negative territory. And it’s more than only just in the red – it’s minus 76.
Ninth-placed Parramatta are one of four teams on 24 points, along with North Queensland (sixth), the Warriors (seventh) and Melbourne (eighth).
But there is one game left in this round – Wests Tigers against the Storm, at Campbelltown Stadium tonight – that will have a significant effect on the table.
A win to Melbourne would take them to sixth – and possibly even fifth, if they win easily. But if the Tigers win, they will go from 12th to ninth – forcing the Eels back to 10th.
This promises to be a terrific match, because it means so much to both sides. The Tigers have had their distractions over the past week that have been well documented, but they will surely be right up for this game.
Campbelltown Stadium is one of those grounds opposition teams don’t like to visit. Expect the Tigers to be very physical early on as they try to get on top of their opponents.
I don’t think there is anything certain about the makeup of the final eight beyond Manly, South Sydney, Penrith and Sydney Roosters all being there.
Fifth-placed Canterbury are on 26 points, but they have lost three in a row and over the last five rounds they play Brisbane (away), Parramatta, Wests Tigers (home), South Sydney (home) and Gold Coast (away).
It’s hard to imagine the Bulldogs not making it, but they’re going to have to lift to negotiate that draw well enough to get there.
I think the teams currently placed from fifth to 10th – the Bulldogs, Cowboys, Warriors, Storm, Eels and Brisbane – will fight it out to be the other four finalists.
That is, unless the Tigers can win tonight. If they don’t win, the equation will start getting too hard for them, just like I think it already is for 11th-placed St George Illawarra.
The Broncos, like the Dragons and Tigers, are only on 22 points, but they have a differential that is significantly better than that of the Storm, Eels, Dragons and Tigers. That is like another win on a compact competition table.
Brisbane will really make it interesting if they can beat Canterbury at Suncorp Stadium on Friday night.
Pete75
Guest
That's some good smoke they sell 'round your way Greg.
Wascally Wabbit
Guest
Greg, you forgot about the article a few days ago where the Raiders said they were now motivated to play well to avoid the spoon. Look out Parra ! Oh hang on, the Raiders said that BEFORE the Warriors game. 4 easy points for the Eels.
Andrew
Guest
The top 8 will be decided by For and Against and the eels are lagging with that. The Warriors toned up the Raiders, that's for sure. The eels have to win 4 games to make it.
Parrafan
Guest
Cowboys have two away games against teams in the top four and a home game against the sea eagles. Warriors play roosters and panthers one away one home (both teams in top four). Storm also have to play roosters and panthers both away. Eels only have to play one team in the top 4 (Manly) which is a home game, and still play 2 of the bottom 3 sides 3 times. Even with a terrible for and against it's fair to say each team has a solid shot at making the eight.
fiver
Guest
I can't see the Eels making the finals. I think the current top 8 will be the same top 8 at the end of round 26. One of the Cowboys, Storm or Warriors would need to make way for the Eels. Don't see it happening.
KenAgain
Guest
KenAgain
Guest
Be wary of the Storm! They get over the West tonight and be a red-hot chance of winning 5 of their last 6 and finish in the Top 4 despite all the away draws. The will cause some serious carnage from inside the Top 4!
Chop
Roar Guru
I'm just excited my Eels aren't going to cop the wooden spoon again, secondary to that, I'm just as excited that the Raiders look like it's going to get it and make Ricky's decision to jump ship look like a great one....For Parra. I thought he was going to cry in the presser yesterday, after being at Bruce to watch it, I was crying too, tears of joy that he can no longer damage my club....
james t
Guest
They will be fodder for the better teams come the finals, like penrith.
Emcie
Roar Guru
Sorry, I did actually mean to put his name in, just missed it somehow. Don't get me wrong, I think the Eels will be dangerous if they make the finals, but great coaches find a way to take their teams up another level for Grand Finals
Kingcowboy
Guest
I do not rate Tim Sheens as a coach. He nearly destroyed our great club and he was the original king of the "five year plan". Any club that signs this man are in for a lot of joyless years.
Paulipaul
Guest
Emcie did you forget trent Robinson? ? First year coach won it last year. Maybe you need perspective
Emcie
Roar Guru
And we've all seen what Parra can do with some late season momentum
Emcie
Roar Guru
It's not the stars you've got, its what you do with them. Coaches win Grand Finals and that's going to be the Eels biggest hurdle. Since 2005 the only coaches to win a GF have been Tim Sheens, Wayne Bennett, Des Hasler and Craig Bellamy, kinda puts it in perspective.
Parrafan
Guest
Can agree with that. I think our last start against sharks was the first time in a long while we have gone into a game as favourites and come out the other end winners. Quietly optimistic though with the teams we have drawn on the run home.
Pot Stirrer
Guest
The Problem for teams like the Eels is they more often than not lose the games they are expected to win.
fiver
Guest
There will be some extreme butthurt if Ricky's Raiders manage to stop the Eels finals charge.
Parrafan
Guest
Having said that we had the Roosters twice and Manly once in the first 6 weeks.
Scott Pryde
Expert
It's a dream to have Canberra twice in the last 5 weeks... unless you are the Dragons :(
Kingcowboy
Guest
Zedman I would have to respectfully disagree with your point. Could Souths win the whole comp without GI? Can Easts win without SBW? Manly without DCE? Storm without Smith or Cronk? Dogs without Graham? I think the comp is that close that any team losing a major star almost rules them out of winning the G.F. I do understand the point you are trying to make as a Cows team with JT is a hell of lot better than a team without him. I am a realist and I know the stats don't lie about the Cows away record but I can see us taking our game to the next level in the coming weeks. This may sound crazy but I fear the Eels more then Manly. I think the cows could get over the top of the Eagles forwards and get a victory on the back of that but if Hayne has one of those games, who knows what Parra will do. Will be interesting to see how it all pans out