Season’s end, a new start. It’s time to give credit to top jockeys of the racing year that finished on July 31. But we all know that statistics lie, they cheat, they withhold the full truth.
Statistics are slippery beasts. Is the top jockey always the best jockey – the one we would like to see riding our horse, supposing we’re an owner or just a punter?
Those of us who ride on the grandstand side of the running rail need to be cautious in rushing to judgement on those who risk their lives on the racetrack. Still, we are entitled to our favourites.
Of course you can’t be top if you’re no good. So we salute Brendan McCoull for winning his 14th premiership in Tasmania; William Pike for his third win in Perth; Dom Tourneur in Adelaide; Timothy Bell who just got there ahead of Michael Cahill in Brisbane; James McDonald in Sydney and Damien Oliver in Melbourne. Of whom, more anon…
Counting Australia wide, Greg Ryan in New South Wales had the most wins for the year, though he never rides in the city. Brad Rawiller, who was just behind him and is based in Victoria, does. The two would not have ridden against each other. Who’s best?
Australian racing is still administered state by state. Within each state, there is usually an attempt to distinguish between ‘metro’ and ‘country’ racing: New South Wales adds ‘provincial’ into the mix.
These are artificial distinctions when it comes to quality. Plenty of country and provincial races are more valuable and coveted than the average midweek city event.
Australia-wide statistics are not much help in deciding who is best. The standard of horses and racing in some metropolitan jurisdictions is stronger than others.
Stats from one state don’t tell you how many rides and wins a jockey has in another state or country.
In Sydney metropolitan racing this season, young New Zealander James McDonald came out on top with 72 wins, beating Nash Rawiller (brother of Brad) with 70.
Ah, but… Nash Rawiller also had five winners in Brisbane for the year where McDonald had one. Then Rawiller had eleven winners in Melbourne while McDonald had eight. Who’s best?
Brent Ford on The Roar a couple of days ago gives his vote to Rawiller who is off to ride for a time in Hong Kong.
On the other hand again, McDonald’s achievement is substantial when you consider he rides independently, not tied to one top stable. Only a few of his winners were for Chris Waller who smashed the Sydney trainers’ season with 158 and a half wins for the year.
A half represents a dead heat. But watch out for those slippery statistics. From this new season in Victoria, a half magically becomes a whole, for the purposes of counting. It avoids a string of ugly fractions but will make future comparisons hazardous.
The statistics can’t tell you how to compare local riders with Australian jockeys doing well elsewhere, such as Brett Prebble and Zac Purton in South-East Asia. They can’t tell you how our jockeys rate with overseas champions who fly in for the spring carnival.
The stats don’t reflect the unwritten rules of racing. The best jockey can’t win on a slow horse. The best jockey doesn’t always get the best rides. It’s hard to be the top jockey if you don’t get the chance to ride the best horses.
The stats tell you how many rides a jockey had in each state, but not how many race meetings at which they rode.
The stats don’t tell you the riding weight of the jockey, which affects their range of options.
The stats don’t tell you which jockeys have the most determined or craftiest agents who help them get the best rides.
The stats don’t tell you whether it is still more difficult to get a good ride if you are a woman, or an apprentice who (by virtue of success) has just lost his or her right to a weight allowance.
The stats don’t tell you whether a jockey has missed meetings and rides because of suspensions, injuries, ill-health, engagements elsewhere, holidays.
Clare Lindop for instance has just returned from serious injury, and still managed more than 30 Adelaide wins for the season.
The stats don’t tell you whether a jockey is suffering from personal problems or depression, substance abuse or bad company.
They don’t tell you whether they have just broken up with or signed on with a top stable. Are they on top of the world or deep down under?
Don’t get stuck on strike rates. Some of us love this simple calculation that tells us the percentage of wins against the number of rides. Surely that’s an indicator of class?
Oh yes, I know I have gone on about jumps jockey Steven Pateman. That’s because his 41 per cent winning strike rate and his top place in Victorian jumping races in 2013-14 is truly remarkable. Veteran Queensland jockey Damian Browne has an impressively high strike rate on the flat.
But strike rates don’t tell you which jockey rode the highest percentage of winners against the number of horses they rode with a real winning chance – as rated in the betting markets.
Most Australian jockeys depend for their bread and butter not on percentages of prizemoney but on race riding fees. Most fees, by definition, are losing fees. Few jockeys have much say over which horse they ride in which race.
It’s no shame for jockeys to have plenty of losing rides – and a low strike rate – if they ride each horse to the best of their ability. As we’ve said, the best jockey finds it hard to win on a slow horse.
The stats don’t reflect how often a jockey gets to ride a horse as it makes its way back into form after a spell, or goes up in distance preparing for a staying race, only to be obliged to hand the ride over to an officially rated top jockey.
The fanfare of the season just passed should sound loudest this time in Melbourne. It was Damien Oliver’s year again – Oliver, determined as only Oliver can be, to reburnish a tarnished reputation and panel-beat the dents in his trophies.
His achievement is the stronger because he was absent from Melbourne racing for five months of the season in total: at the start because he was still serving his much-publicised suspension and at the end because he was taking a holiday of his own choosing.
It is the stronger because of his determined recoveries from severe racing injuries not so long ago. The Damien Oliver we see riding today is a different man from the youth who won the Melbourne Cup on Doriemus in 1995.
Taking a third Cup, on Fiorente last November, places Oliver in a very select group. Only Midge McLachlan, Bobby Lewis, Darby Munro, Jack Purtell, Jim Johnson, Harry White and Glen Boss have ridden three or more Melbourne Cup winners.
Even more select is to top the Melbourne winning list for the ninth time. The only jockeys ever to have won more were Bill Duncan and Roy Higgins, decades ago, with 11 apiece.
Oliver has now been top dog in this town more often than Bill Williamson, Ron Hutchinson, Harold Badger, Scobie Breasley, Jack Purtell – racing legends all of them.
Is Oliver better than them? Not on my statistic-free legend-ometer, not quite yet. But most of them are gone, and none is in the saddle any more. Oliver is. When you get the chance, go and see him ride. Then let’s talk about who’s best.
Barrie M Hill
Guest
It is now 43 years since Bill Williamson rode his last race in the UK I still have fond memories of his extremely effective stylsh riding, in my opinion he was number 1. A statement endorsed by none other than Lester Pigott.
Stuart McGinley
Guest
To be a success you have to be confident. Confidence comes from winning and it's very rare for a jockey to be employed regularly if they don't have the skills that are necessary to win. Conveying that confidence to owners and trainers is a skill in it self. Being articulate is a real asset for any budding jockey. The likes of Roy Higgins and Harry White are two that I can think of that demonstrated these skills to great affect by their actions and dexterity. I know what Andrew means though as sometimes it's the lesser known jockeys that aren't recognised in the way they deserve. It's these unsung heroes that I have the utmost admiration for. It's often these jockeys that are true horseman and they ride to fulfill their passion and not to fill their pockets!
Sargent Sarto
Guest
Trophies collect dust..! In my humble opinion The best jockey is the one who you would Put on when the bets are laid.. The money Jockey's... The ones who you would put on To ride for your life... In the past Mick Dittman & Greg Hall and in recent times Damien Oliver & Noel Callow.. Jockeys do it very tough.. With The sacrifices to ensure weight is adhered to. Strike rates, trophies or bigger bank balance? ..
cowcorner
Roar Pro
Interesting take on the stats Andrew. RB ratings who I rely on for my form, rates the top ones as Nash Rawiller, D Brown, J McDonald, Matt Neilson, W Pike and Paul Harvey and his list is freely available on his website. Emma Stent rates highly for a young rider and looks to be a star in the making.
Mark from Derby
Guest
I thought this article was all about who is the best jockey in regards to punting. The stat needed is AVERAGE WINNING PRICE. eg Damian Oliver 121 rides- 33 wins average wiinning price $3.20 Glenn Boss 108 rides- 22 wins average winning price $7.50 A stat like that is far more valuable.
Andrew Lemon
Expert
Interesting comments. As Brent Ford says, the article simply asks racing fans not to take the annual premiership winning statistics at face value. Look beyond the obvious. Having said that, para 4 says exactly what I mean – you can’t be top if you’re no good. I salute the winners, I put in a good word for James McDonald who made it on his own ability in Sydney, and I confirmed that Damien Oliver is a legend. But statistics are slippery and can distract us from recognising the talents of those who ride under the many disadvantages I mention. By the way, I have always thought Luke Nolen deserved more credit than he sometimes gets for his rides on Black Caviar. He promoted the fiction that he was just the bloke on board. Miscalculation nearly cost him the famous race at Royal Ascot but I admired his coolness under extreme pressure with all the racing world watching. It was consummate horsemanship by Nolen and a real bond with Black Caviar that got the mare back into overdrive to make a winning lunge just as she was about to be beaten. And I certrainly don’t discount strike rate. It’s a very good guide to top jockeys. The point is that the better jockeys more often have the luxury of picking and choosing their rides. It can conceal the fact that a bread-and-butter jockey who has to ride many no-hopers can still be a brilliant rider, given a chance. Don't let them get under your guard.
Greg
Guest
And about the strike rate. It seems that even though you have discounted it. The top jockeys around the world are always at 15% plus
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
It's a good yarn that one, plenty of luck!
Albo
Guest
" I remember Tommy Berry started out doing track work for Gai Waterhouse.." Yes but Gai thought she had Nathan Berry ! Shows that becoming a top jockey often needs more than sheer ability....a touch of luck along the way usually helps !
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
Yeah it's an exaggerated point but I would never consider Luke Nolan to be in my top 10 jockeys at the moment. I agree with your second point, I remember Tommy Berry started out doing track work for Gai Waterhouse, and he is now one of the top jockeys in Australia and that was through hardwork and persistence and he is still improving as we speak. I guess we will have to disagree on that last point, if only there was a breakdown on wins with weight ridden etc.
Ryan
Guest
Although the Black Caviar example is an exaggerrated one, I do hear that argument. I would argue though that most jockeys who get to ride the superior horses do so because they have proved themselves capable. Getting backing from certain trainers is usually on the back of performance and ability; less so than politics. Even than, the jockey who gets the rides has usually done there fair amount of work to deserve it (from trackwork to riding country meetings to taking random rides for that trainer etc.) Most jockeys who win on horses that should win, win there fair share on those that shouldnt. Dismissing the stats as "lieing" and putting alot of wins down to superior horses and a combination of unfortunate/fortunate circumstances is not giving enough credit to the stats. A win is a win is a win.
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
We are in for an exciting Spring I can tell you that!
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
No I think what Andrew is trying to say is that there are many factors that aren't taken into account when we consider who Australia's best jockeys are. "The stats may miss all those factors; but they do tell us who wins and who doesnt. Which turns out to be a pretty important factor in the racing industry." So if someone is lucky enough to have a ride on say Black Caviar does that make them the best jockey because they are riding superior horses? Perhaps not, some jockeys aren't fortunate to ride the best horses and sometimes it might be the backing from certain trainers that will make jockeys seem more superior when that sometimes isn't the case.
Ryan
Guest
I am not sure what this article is trying to say. Are you trying to say that the Premiership winners are not worthy for a variety of factors? Or Oliver isnt? You have mentioned the variation between states, the difference in stats etc. Thats exactly why its broken down into state premeirships? I cant figure out if you are supporting this or believe its wrong. You seem to be missing the point about what the premiership represents; Its the award for the top jockey for that state; its not trying to misrepresent anything. The premiership shows a dedication to riding consistently, succesfully and at a high level all year in that state; its not about who is the "best". "Ah, but… Nash Rawiller also had five winners in Brisbane for the year where McDonald had one" - That has nothing to do with the Sydney premiership. That would be an argument for who is the better jockey; not who is more worthy of the award. All the factors you mentioned about why the "stats lie" are obstacles that jockeys simply have to deal with, and those that overcome them best usually come out on top. Its part of the craft and the nature of the game. The stats may miss all those factors; but they do tell us who wins and who doesnt. Which turns out to be a pretty important factor in the racing industry.
Drew H
Guest
In a 10 horse race, it is easy to see each horse with a one tenth chance of winning. I'm sure that there is something sound about this view. There are plenty of races to go to and enjoy. It doesn't matter where or when a person visits a track for a punt; it's simply an enjoyable thing to do. With all the critics throwing mud around, there is less joy. I don't need a famous picnic meeting to say that I can also play it down and enjoy the sport and event. Too much mud takes a long time to clear. Are we in for a good spring?
sheek
Roar Guru
For other readers, I should have mentioned these four jockeys dominated Sydney racing from early 1940s to late 1960s.
sheek
Roar Guru
Very thoughtful article Andrew, I guess everyone (especially punters) just loves a winner..... I am fascinated by the careers of Jack Thompson (b. 1922), Neville Sellwood (b. 1922), George Moore (b. 1923) & Athol Mulley (b. 1923). They were all within a year of each other, & it's fascinating how their careers varied, peaking at different times. I only came across Moore & Mulley late in their careers in the mid/late 60s. Also Thompson, who was still riding then, but all but forgotten. Thompson, tall for a jockey & heaviest, was at his best as a youngster, winning four of his five premierships by the age of 25, & the last at 33. Yet he rode deep into his 50s. Sellwood was king of Sydney racing from 1948/49 until 1959/60, being champion jockey in half (six times) those years. Sellwood was then successful in France before dying tragically from a race fall in late 1961. Moore was recognised early, but took time to cement his reputation. Was it because he was feisty? He was suspended for two years in the early 50s before winning two premierships in the mid/later 50s. He also had time to go to France & win the Prix de l'Arc in 1958. He also won the English Derby in 1967 & won eight straight premierships from 1961/62-1968/69, when his age went from 38/39 to 45/46. Mulley's great gift, apart from being an outstanding jockey, was to annoy the crap out of Moore. Apparently the two had several jockey room fisticuffs. Mulley's two premierships were well apart - 1945/46 & 1960/61. Of course, during the 60s, Moore must have been first port of call for trainers & owners. But he had earned the right of first refusal by that time. Jockeys premierships are like any stats. They tell us a story, but not necessarily the whole story.