They say three’s a crowd, well how about five? At the moment that is Steve Hansen and the All Blacks’ conundrum when faced with the prospect of selecting the back three for the opening Rugby Championship Test of the season on Saturday week.
It’s a good selection headache for Hansen and company, but one which will no doubt cause some lengthy debate as they weigh up the individual merits of Ben Smith, Israel Dagg, Julian Savea, Cory Jane and Charles Piutau.
Hansen’s Rubik’s Cube was made a little easier during the recent English series, with Piutau forced out injured and Dagg following suit after the opening Test.
Smith, Savea and Jane held the jerseys for the final two Tests with Smith and Savea performing particularly strongly. After two rather abject performances in the opening two matches, Jane finally came right in the third Test to remind everyone of his class.
When pondering the make-up of the back three it is likely that Hansen will start first with fullback. Here the selectors will be severely tested on their standard policy, which dictates that an incumbent player’s position will not be lost in the event of an injury.
During Hansen’s reign we have seen many a first choice player return immediately to the side following an injury enforced absence.
Dagg has been the incumbent fullback ever since he overtook Mils Muliaina during the 2011 Rugby World Cup, and would likely have stayed there if injury hadn’t struck during the English series. What complicates matters however, is that Ben Smith is the best fullback in the world at present (along with Israel Folau) and was undoubtedly the standout player of the English series.
Add into the equation Daggs’ fairly ordinary Super Rugby form and Smith’s star role for the Highlanders, where he led the competition in metres gained, and the selection issue gets even trickier.
If the selection was based purely on form then it would be a one-horse race with Smith out in front by five lengths, however as the All Black selectors have proved time and time again in recent seasons, selections are equally based on past deeds and not on form alone. And so who will ultimately wear the number 15 jersey is anyone’s guess.
One thing is for certain, such is Ben Smith’s importance and growing stature in the world game, he has to be on the field regardless of what jersey he is wearing.
Julian Savea is another player who is on top of his game at present, and he would have a reasonable claim at currently being the world’s premier wing. His mix of physical brawn and subtle skills make him absolutely lethal, something his record of 23 tries from 22 Tests attests to.
So Savea and Smith are non-negotiable for Hansen, which therefore means the final player to make up the triumvirate will depend on whether Smith appears in the 14 or the 15 jersey.
If Dagg occupies the 15 jumper then Savea and Smith will almost certainly occupy the flanks, while if Smith occupies the 15 jersey then it is likely that the All Blacks selectors will select Jane, who put in a strong third Test performance against England.
Jane is a quality operator when on top of his game and the All Blacks selectors will hope that by putting their faith in him, they will be duly rewarded.
Now I’m placing myself hypothetically in the selectors’ shoes for a moment. In selecting the back three I would have Savea’s name inked in immediately on the left wing. In weighing up the fullback jersey I would then look at what each player brings.
Dagg is safe under the high ball and with his prodigious boot, something that has been absolutely crucial to the All Blacks game of recent years. But Dagg is still prone to the odd mistake and certainly not on top of his game at present. Then there’s Smith, a player that always makes the right decision, whose evasion skills Harry Houdini would be proud of, and a player more likely to free his wingers.
For me the decision is straightforward. Ben Smith at 15, Cory Jane at 14 and Julian Savea at 11. Based on previous selection policies however, I expect the All Blacks to stick to the status quo with Dagg, Smith and Savea likely to be named.
As they say, competition breeds success, and there is no shortage of competition for places in the All Blacks’ outside backs at present.
The Bledisloe is almost here!
Tickets are on sale to what will be a blockbuster at ANZ Stadium (get yours here). After a cracking Super Rugby final, this promises to be epic.There’s also plenty happening in the lead-up, with the Bledisloe Cup Festival a chance for true rugby supporters to get together.
Want to introduce yourself to a few of the players? The Bledisloe Bay is your best bet on Thursday 14th August from 5pm. Check it out!
richard
Guest
That photo was taken earlier in the year BEFORE the final...
DB
Guest
I agree about him at 13 but I know that Link will not pick him there so I discounted that :(
WQ
Guest
Good point but I think Cory Jane, when playing well, is just as big a threat as any of them! Clearly he struggled a bit in the first two Tests against the Poms but he certainly hit his straps against them in the third Test. I think that will get him the start. Either way Jerry I will be happy.
Jerry
Guest
Personally I'd leave out Jane. Dagg, Smith, Savea starting, Fekitoa on the bench. But my point was if you're gonna select a foursome of Jane, Dagg, Savea & Smith, there's no reason why Smith has to be relegated to the bench for his versatility. He can cover fullback just as easily from the 14 jersey.
WQ
Guest
I'm not so sure about that but certainly agree that Ben Smith would deserve a start if he gets one!
Sylvester
Guest
I'd say it's pretty much a given Ben Smith will be starting at either 14 or 15, based on last year's performances on the wing and this year's test and Super form.
JTG
Guest
Having just seen a photo of a few of the crusaders players showing off their hunting skills by killing a deadly Zebra after frustrating loss to the waratahs I am now really worried about what they might hunt if the wallabies beat them, maybe we should ban them from Australia Zoo!!!
Kuruki
Roar Guru
Savea is the first picked. There is no question he is the best left winger in NZ. For me Ben Smith has stolen the 15 jersey and Dagg must now earn it back the hard way, he has not done anything in the past two years that say he should start ahead of Ben Smith. Charlie Piutau was outstanding on the right wing sadly for him he left the door open for CJ when he injured himself and CJ's performance in the last test will probably earn him the start. Piutau offers more from the bench then Dagg. If Piutau regains his form in black then Jane will struggle to hold him out. Izzy will be left ruing a drop of in form and imo an over confident attitude toward his position in the All Blacks. Jane, Smith, Savea and Piutau have all reached higher heights then Dagg has in the past few years, reputation and past deeds can only be rewarded for so long.
WQ
Guest
I guess he could Jerry but that then limits your bench with Dagg or would you leave him out?
Taniwha
Guest
Smith, Savea and Jane are my picks with Piutau on the bench. Smith deserves to stay at fullback you could not ask a player to do more than he has this year for the Highlanders and ABs. I think the Savea/Jane combo if they fire is the best we have with Piutau on the bench as he is explosive, enthusiastic and gives his all whenever he is involved so exactly the type of player I want to come on to provide impact. Dagg is definitely unlucky if the above pans out but he will not be alone in that situation for the ABs this year.
WQ
Guest
Will not be long and we will know Bob
Bob
Guest
Those posters saying Ben Smith won't be in the match day 15 are kidding themselves. THE form back of NZ rugby at all levels over the last 2 years, there is no way he won't be starting. It's just the debate about which number he'll wear. I would go with Savea, Smith (15), Piutau, but I suspect Hansen will go with Savea, Dagg, Smith (14).
DCNZ
Guest
I reckon they should bring on Ben Smith in the second half and tell Cory to hammer it for the first 50. Savea and Dagg at the back to play the full distance. Fekitoa second half sub as well. Cane on for McCaw with 20 to go. Barrett same for Cruden. Laughing.
WQ
Guest
If you listen to a lot of the Wallaby fans on the Roar they have a problem with his ability to pass the ball? I just think that his ability to run into holes and to defend in the channel makes him an excellent 13. I agree Old Bugger he was excellent for the Tahs this year and one of the best for the Wallabies last year!
Jerry
Guest
There's nothing to say Smith can't cover fullback starting on the wing.
Old Bugger
Guest
Isn't there some concern about his ball passing to set up his outsides?? Still, he didn't look to bad for the Tahs this year.
Old Bugger
Guest
Digs Yeah mate - agree with you and OJ for Dagg, Savea & Smith so I most probably just put the mocka on that lot anyway. There's an old saying in rugby - "When the speed starts to flag, you move in closer to the grunt" or something like that. So if Nonu gets injured, I can see CS moving to IC and Mala coming on at OC. They would most probably change around on the paddock anyway so it wouldn't really matter.
WQ
Guest
I think Adam Ashley-Cooper is excellent at 13?
WQ
Guest
The added point you make about the better bench mix is spot on DB
WQ
Guest
I think he will play his part Jerry, I just don't think in front of those guys at this stage. As DB rightfully points out below Dagg, Jane and Savea are all specialists to those positions where as Smith covers any number of spots off the bench. He will have to be a part of the All Blacks set up, he is just to good not to be, but I think off the bench for now.