Only two short weeks stand in the way of what will most likely be the best Rugby Championship to date, and already the stakes are high for every team involved.
The three most prominent sides of world rugby, the Australian Wallabies, the South African Springboks and the New Zealand All Blacks, are all fully capable of claiming the 2014 title and the Argentine Pumas look to impose themselves and claim that elusive first win.
The SANZAR countries usually do well in the June international window but very seldom do all three these sides boast squads of such impeccable quality and depth. And on top of this, all three countries are on form, full of belief and hungry for world domination.
But if there is one thing we’ve learnt over the past two seasons it’s that the Pumas are no pushovers. They have made huge strides in quality after being included in rugby’s toughest playground. Underestimate them at your own risk.
So without further delay, let’s delve into the odds of all four sides.
Argentina
The Pumas were included into the competition in 2012 and have not won a single game since, but they have managed a draw against the Springboks. They have also pushed the All Blacks and the Wallabies hard in recent games, especially the All Blacks in New Zealand last year.
The Pumas will look at those games and will draw belief from it. They drew with the second best team in the world in 2012 at Mendoza. Considering the fact that the Springboks remain unbeaten against all northern hemisphere teams since Heyneke Meyer’s tenure, the draw in Mendoza is quite a feat.
The Pumas are ranked lower than England, Wales, France and Ireland. These are teams who have failed to get one over the Boks and yet the Pumas managed a draw.
The fixture against the Springboks in Argentina might be their best shot at getting a win. In the past two years they have shown that they are truly capable of winning this game. The Springboks struggled in both 2012 and 2013, and the hostile Argentinian crowd seems to have a rather potent effect on the Boks.
In both these games the Pumas scored first and as history tells us the Boks don’t like that kind of early pressure. Discipline ultimately cost them and therein lies the keys to success. They should do what they did in both games and sharpen up their discipline. If they do this, based on the two previous games, the Pumas can defeat the Springboks.
What will hurt however, is the fact that they open their campaign in South Africa at Loftus. The Springboks will look to give them a little bit of their own medicine. Of all the venues in South Africa, Loftus is by far the most intimidating stadium for both the Boks and the Bulls to play at. The fans just get stuck in there and fill the team with power.
However, this doesn’t mean that the Pumas should just forget the challenge that lies in Australasia. The Kiwis haven’t been able to blow the Pumas away at home like the Springboks and Wallabies have, but what will linger on their minds is the fact that the All Blacks have annihilated them in Argentina. Whether or not the Pumas can beat the Wallabies this year remains to be seen as the Australians haven’t been truly tested. But if their Super Rugby form is anything to go by it will be a long shot.
Australia
Deserved holders of the Super Rugby trophy and a nice winning streak to go with it, the Wallabies may just be the form team in the competition this year.
In June they destroyed a horrible, ghastly Les Blues team with some wonderful running rugby. But both Ewen McKenzie and every Aussie fan will know that that series was no measurement of their strength this year.
Nevertheless, there is every reason to be optimistic about the Wallabies when you compare their current form with that of last year. Their star players are all in the form of their lives.
They will look to inspirational captain Michael Hooper to set the example, and if he does then players like Israel Folau, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Matt Toomua and Wycliff Palu will destroy all that lies before them.
The unavailability of players like Will Genia and Quade Cooper does leave a dent in their arsenal, but their replacements Nic White and Toomua are fully capable of directing the team.
The first and second Tests against the All Blacks will be a cracker. The world champions have been in cruise-mode since their coronation in 2011 and defeating them feels like mission impossible. Not even I dare to make a prediction.
After this they will face the Springboks in Perth. Again, it could swing either way depending on their true form which will be revealed against the All Blacks.
The Wallabies have had a bit of a horrid run against the Springboks, losing three games in a row by 20 to 30 points each. To top it all off Perth is a bit of a happy hunting ground for the Boks through the years.
But this Wallabies side should be much stronger than that of 2012 and 2013, and that can be the telling factor. The Wallabies need to win both Tests against the Boks and both against the Pumas with bonus points in each should they lose twice against the All Blacks.
If they play to their full potential they may very well win the title.
South Africa
The Springboks find themselves in the most precarious situation in 2014. While many like myself celebrated the spectacular 2013 season, few realised it’s implications on the current season.
What I mean by that is that while it’s always good to have a stellar season it also means that more is expected of you in the next.
The translation? The only way they can improve on last year is if they defeat the All Blacks while not losing to the Wallabies.
That is one hell of a standard to live up to. Should they lose both games against the All Blacks again and lose against the Wallabies even once their season will be regarded as a step backwards, and that is not where Meyer would want to be.
But of course there are positives as well.
They open their campaign at Fortress Loftus against the Pumas. A huge score with a bonus point like last year would set them up handsomely. And then they will travel to Argentina and, as crazy as it sounds, a win there could set them up for some silverware.
As I mentioned above, they do struggle in Argentina for reasons known and unknown. Should they get the monkey off their backs and record another good bonus point win in this game the Springboks will well and truly be in with a better chance than last year.
Perth is one of their lesser feared grounds. Their win percentage there isn’t all too shabby and depending on the Wallabies’ secret true strength they could win this game, which would do wonders for their confidence.
This will see them head to Waikato. We all know a win in New Zealand is like Haley’s Comet, it only comes once in a blue moon. They might win this game but the probability is slim to say the least.
Returning home after a week off they will face the Wallabies at DHL Newlands yet again. They will feel comfortable with this seeing as Newlands remains a battlefield few Aussies have conquered. But as the history breaking win at Suncorp showed us last year it is not impossible to lose.
The grand finale will be at Ellis Park against the titans of rugby. If the Springboks enter this game with the same state of mind as last year, and if they have improved their fitness, they might finally defeat the All Blacks.
Their squad is an improvement on the squads of past years, and Meyer has built some good depth. The absence of Fourie du Preez will haunt them but the return of numerous injured players will bolster them.
Jean de Villiers returns to lead the crusade and by his side he will have deputy Victor Matfield for advice. The Boks will once again rely on their potent loose trio, counting on South Africa’s most underrated player Duane Vermeulen as the team’s defensive captain. Bismarck du Plessis, Eben Etzebeth, Willem Alberts and Bryan Habana will have to be at their very best to carry the team to glory.
They might not be favourites but the Springboks have destiny in their own hands.
New Zealand
What else can you say about this team? The Kiwis have assembled a monsterous squad of players for their campaign and to think that players like Sonny Bill Williams, Rene Ranger and Richard Kahui aren’t even included is a scary thought.
The All Blacks remain the benchmark of world rugby. They once again stand at the cusp of rewriting the history books, and are once again the undisputed favourites for the title.
Their mission is simple. Win every single game and win them well. With the soldiers at their disposal it seems all the more probable. Richie McCaw, Daniel Carter, Kieran Read, Conrad Smith, Israel Dagg and Julian Savea are feared for good reason.
The All Blacks open their campaign against the Wallabies and will look to assert their supremacy. They know all too well that the Wallabies pose a threat to their ambitions and only a fool would think that they will take the game lightly.
On match day history counts for nothing and they know that. If the Wallabies bring it to them we might see the best game of the year.
It’s hard picturing them losing to the Pumas in the competition but stranger things have happened. The All Blacks as ever won’t underestimate them and will look to bag two good wins over them.
But their main objective this year might be to crush their rivals’ spirits one year out from the World Cup.
The greatest rivalry in rugby between the All Blacks and the Springboks will provide the necessary enlightenment as to who stands the best chance next year. If they do win both games then Meyer will have a zero per cent record against them before a World Cup year.
This would completely destroy the Springboks’ confidence and that’s exactly what the All Blacks need at this stage to defend their title.
The world will witness this titanic clash for glory in high definition detail once the teams take to the field. All the teams’ previous form will count for nothing if they don’t perform in this year’s championship.
The gauntlet is thrown. Who will bask in its magnificence?
The Bledisloe is almost here!
Tickets are on sale to what will be a blockbuster at ANZ Stadium (get yours here). After a cracking Super Rugby final, this promises to be epic.There’s also plenty happening in the lead-up, with the Bledisloe Cup Festival a chance for true rugby supporters to get together.
Want to introduce yourself to a few of the players? The Bledisloe Bay is your best bet on Thursday 14th August from 5pm. Check it out!
Mark
Guest
So close this year... Think the Wannabies have really improved...McKenzie has got a solid team and for once they aren't wibbling on about how great they are...before they have actually done anything... And anyone who discounts the Jappies is deranged... And I suspect the Argentina will want to prove something... It's going to be close - and will prob. move the SH further ahead of the NH....
Chivas
Guest
Here are a few generalisations to start with. BRock “The gap is definitely closing, as it’s impossible to replace the quality that is on the wrong side of 30.” Brock “It’s pretty clear that rugby players (most athletes actually) peak in their mid-late 20s.” Brock “The ABs have some truly great players on the downward slope of their careers (MCCaw, Carter, etc), with some very good but not great players replacing them.” RW “Stating “This is not cricket” doesn’t substantiate your argument. I’m pretty sure there are plenty of parallels with cricket. And any other sport were long standing players retire.” Then go on to talk about Australian cricket as if the parallels are there and it is a given. RW “I think the fact that you believe they can easily be replaced discredits their vast achievements and longevity.” And you say this is merely recognising and complimenting players, and concluding I don’t respect or recognise their achievements when I have followed their careers before they ever pulled on the black jersey. IHaving played and watched over four generations of rugby, I think I have a fairly good idea of who has contributed what to rugby in NZ. Then you put up an argument like “Cruden is a great player, but does he have the all round game and flawlessness of a vintage Dan Carter? Cane is a great competitor, but will he dominate and lead the AB’s for a decade like McCaw?“ Who said the baton of leadership will be passed from McCaw to Cane. It was handed to McCaw from Fitzpatrick and I daresay will be handed to Read from McCaw. The game is made up of 15 players on the field at any one time from a playing group of 22 from a squad of around 30. Then there are a large number of coaches and specialists, dieticians, sports doctors, physio’s, fitness instructors etc. It simply doesn’t all rest on one person’s shoulders. Yes I do believe Cruden and Barrett are able replacements for Dan Carter currently. Yes I do think they are getting better. Both Cruden and Barrett are becoming more consistent and accurate with regards to their option taking. Yes I do think Cane is ready to take on more responsibility in the playing group. Yes I do think Read is nearly at the point where he can take on the leadership field. Yes I do think Coles is getting better and at the current rate of improvement will fill in that position quite nicely for some time to come. No I don’t think Fekitoa is quite ready to take over Conrad Smith’s place as backline general.. No I don’t know who the replacements will be for Kaino, who is playing brutal rugby currently, or Nonu. Luatua and SBW maybe. But for now these guys haven’t hung up the boots and I am fairly certain that succession planning is well in hand. Unlike yourself and BRock who think Franks has peaked I disagree. Same for Whitelock, Retallick, Aaron Smith who are already world class. I don't see Crockett as Woodcock's replacement. What you and Brock are so dismissive of and show little appreciation for by your comments is just how deep and together NZ rugby is. Two years ago I was concerned, because there weren't clear replacements for DC and particularly McCaw. But now there are and they have enabled that and put in a huge amount to hand over the baton. The idea is always leave the place better than you found it. That is the legacy of truly great players and is what has been achieved by these players. Will NZ always be number one? No, I don’t think so. But it will come down to another team being better, rather than NZ falling over because a few players finish up their rugby careers. Is NZ struggling to fully cover all 15 positions on the field...Yes, I already stated that we have a lack of depth in some positions like LHP. But I certainly don't hear the bells tolling like you and BRock appear to be imagining. And for me that is not how you compliment a team.
Richie Walton
Roar Guru
Chivas, what sweeping generalisations have I made? I'm complimenting half your team! I completely understand that the All Blacks and NZ as rugby playing nation are a well oiled machine that continue to turn out great talent. They don't seem to show many signs of fading. But it's not completely irrational to recognise that some of the players coming through may not reach the dizzying heights of their predecessors. Cruden is a great player, but does he have the all round game and flawlessness of a vintage Dan Carter? Cane is a great competitor, but will he dominate and lead the AB's for a decade like McCaw? Will another No.8 pop up with Keiran Read's ball-playing, speed and power? And will Fekitoa become the fearsome go-to centre to dominate oppositions like Nonu? We're simply recognising the outstanding careers of Carter, McCaw, Nonu and Read.
Buk
Guest
Good article Armand. Draw seems to just slightly favour the Wallabies, as they play both SA and NZ at home first. If they can get up to win both the must be in the box seat. While the opposite appears to be the case for SA - both first up away games against the other big two, so could be hard to get momentum. Also Hamilton if its on a cold wet night - not how I would want to start against the No.1 team I think last year NZ had the advantage in first-up games against both SA and Wallabies being in NZ
The V Man
Guest
"If we really take it to the ABs at the breakdown for 80 minutes, plus hold our own in the set piece, plus no leaky defence, plus general skills hold up under the pressure, then things are looking good for the series." Really!!!! You should have said "play rugby".
The V Man
Guest
The All Blacks will win it is as simple as that. Undefeated and the black machine rolls on.......
djackedinc
Guest
NZ, SA, ARG and then AUS.
Chivas
Guest
Wow now you extend your broad brush to suggesting I am being disrespectful of McCaw and co's achievements. I would suggest you completely fail to understand it acknowledge just the amount of effort and work that goes into the development of players in order to replace players, so we don't fall into the same situation as Australian cricket. This was a situation NZ rugby fell into during the last mass exodus and something NZ rugby learned from. McCaw as a player's most valuable asset has been his onfield leadership in recent times. I openly acknowledge the value McCaw and Carter bring to this team. I also recognise how they have evolved. I also understand the time and effort they have invested in the up and coming players so their eventual departure is not felt. Your sweeping generalisations show little knowledge or respect for the AB's, the players, the coaching etc. that has allowed the AB's to be and remain the most formidable side for over a decade. That you and don't even acknowledge or understand what I have spelt out, is more of a demonstration of how little thought you really have put into your assertions. But please continue with sweeping generalisations about Australian cricket. That adds significant value to a discussion about the AB's and their planning for the future.
Firstxv
Guest
the gap...simply isnt closing. The ABs are 17-0 since 2012. It is your opinion its closing but its not based on anything but a supposition. Fact is, last two years the gap has got bigger. How is that not the case with the only pro side to have 100% wins in a season. Sure you like to think its closing...but it actually aint.
Firstxv
Guest
Not sure. Best 12 in the sxv NZ sides was Leiua who's not eligible. If Dagg and Jane are in the side I'd go for a Fekitoa, Crotty type rather than a 10 to 12 option. Vs England in the first test our backline looked tiny without Savea and I think Nonu. It is a tricky one but here's hoping that doesnt happen. Romano I thought was ready (not sure) but Coles/ Mealamu is an ok option, and versus Oz that should be enough with TPN out but vs SA well, doesnt matter whos against Bismarck, does it?
Richie Walton
Roar Guru
Stating "This is not cricket" doesn't substantiate your argument. I'm pretty sure there are plenty of parallels with cricket.. And any other sport were long standing players retire. Australia had plenty of talent coming through the cricket ranks, but they were internationally inexperienced and 12-15 years younger than the guys they replaced. The batsmen in particular were disadvantaged having been raised on a diet of short-form cricket and extremely green state pitches in the Sheffield Sheild. It's taken 3 to 4 years to bridge the gap somewhat. But you can't take McGrath, Warne, Gilchrist and Hayden (3 of whom could justifiably be in an All time XI) out of a team and expect everything to keep ticking over as it was. NZ Rugby will continue to be strong, B-Rock and I are simply noting that the current crop (McCaw, Read, Carter, Nonu) are an exceptional assembly of players. I think the fact that you believe they can easily be replaced discredits their vast achievements and longevity.
RobC
Roar Guru
Boks clicked last year. ABs still switched on. I suspect WBs will click during TRC -If WBs avoid giving away soft points and go for a first half blitzkrieg in contact, they will be hard to beat. Leg drive and accurate passing hasn't been in WBs arsenal for a while. Another thing to look out for is their goal kicker -If the Boks control a full (100m) territorial game they have a good to chance to win. Key is moving point of attack quickly and shore up their midfield defence. - If the ABs can take the initiative in the first 20' they will win. Their forwards in their bench is their nuclear arsenal - Haven't studied Argentina.But they will look to pounce on the Boks, who have 7 days to travel to Salta from their Pretoria game. Australia too, 7 days between Capetown and Mendoza games. NZ has 14 days between Wellington and Buenos Aires matches Possession for all teams is key. Should be a v good tournament.
Chivas
Guest
Just to be even clearer. Sports science... supplement programs, training methods adjusted by individual and age, injurysnagement have changed a lot over the past couple of decades. Enough in fact to make your underlying assumptions look rather spurious. If in the other hand you are saying we have no obvious replacements for Kaino and Read. I agree. I am hoping in the next year or two Luatua and others may rise a level. If you are saying the AB's will need to consider in field leadership and handing over the baron from McCaw and C Smith to the next guys, that is obvious and underway. If you are saying it is remarkable how the AB's have extended the careers of Woodcock, Mealamu, Carter etc. to hand over the knowledge and experience of these players to the next batch. I agree. But instead, you appear to be saying, some blokes are leaving and the AB's will no longer be such a powerhouse. I don't think NZ rugby has been in better shape and I've been following the game closely for over 40 years.
Chivas
Guest
Don't think I could have been clearer either. Your sweeping generalisations are not accurate. Let is start with atheletic peak which is mid 20's compared to physical stregbth peak which is mid 30"s. Franks a THP at 26 is not at his peak I would suggest. I wasn't saying to analyse every AB, but you may have considered therir position. That in itself is not rocket science. Cruden and Barrett are more than able replacements for Carter IMO and are still getting better and more consistent. Retallick is the best physical lock I have seen from NZ in a long while. Whitelock is still on the young side. McCaw is difficult to replace both in terms of his leadership and for what he does. Fekitoa is just starting and will keep getting better. A more than capable replacement under Conrad Smith in tears to come. Doesn't have Smith's experience and composure yet, but will learn. Coles is improving all the time and I am not too bothered with losing Mealamu now as I was a year back. All the players grow so much with such a wealth of talent and experience around them. I think you are rattling off some names and showing that the AB's will lose some of the old guard. That is not news to anyone. The suggestion these players will leave a gaping hole is what I dispute. Add to that the fact you don't appear to understand the development path for certain positions and the average age that AB's have typically peaked (age wise) in those positions... makes even your groupings look questionable. I do understand the general point of what you are saying. I just think it is largely inaccurate. A bit like comparing it to the Australian cricket team. The bigger problem IMHO is injury cover in certain positions.
B-Rock
Roar Guru
Couldn't have been clearer that I think NZ are still clearly the best in the world but the gap is closing. All players will peak at different times (of course) and I don't pretend to have analysed every ABs squad member for where they are in their career arc. Move Crockett and Franks to the peak group if you want. It doesn't chg the outcome. Its pretty clear that rugby players (most athletes actually) peak in their mid-late 20s. While nuances exist, this is pretty consistent. The ABs have some trully great players on the downward slope of their careers (MCCaw, Carter, etc), with some very good but not great players replacing them. Therefore the gap is closing. I can't see how this could be reasonably disputed.
Mike
Guest
Wallabies can't fail to improve on last year - lost all four matches vs ABs and Boks, and came within a whisker of losing a match against Argentina. But can we get the 1st or 2nd placing some are predicting? Its possible, and I think we will know in the first test in Sydney. Not on whether win or lose, but on how we play. If we really take it to the ABs at the breakdown for 80 minutes, plus hold our own in the set piece, plus no leaky defence, plus general skills hold up under the pressure, then things are looking good for the series.
Mike
Guest
I agree. Skelton has only played a full 80 minutes for the Tahs once this season, that I can think of. Its not a good preparation to play 80 minutes in a test.
Harry Jones
Guest
Last year in the 4-try win at Brisbane, Pienaar and Steyn started and thoroughly outplayed Genia and Cooper. Meyer will remember that: best win in OZ in decades.... But I hope he throws Pollard in vs the ARGIES and that the kid seizes the chance to keep the jersey against the big boys
Xenomorph
Guest
Hes still playing very well.
Armand van Zyl
Roar Guru
I would love to see Skelton and Etzebeth clash. Would be titanic.